Economy in Brief: 2020

• Industrial production increased 1.1% in October with upward revisions to both August and September. Still, production is 5.6% below its pre-pandemic February level.• Manufacturing led the rebound, rising 1.0% in October with upward [...]

• Diffusion index rises to record high 90 in November. • All three subcomponents -- present and forward-looking sales as well as foot traffic -- all increase to records. • Three out of four regions improve, only exception Northeast. [...]

Something missing. Federal withheld gross income tax receipts continue to post large declines, missing the rebound in employment and wage and salary income. One wonders if the weakness in gross federal income tax receipts is related [...]

Japan's third quarter growth result is a step in the right direction. Of course, it does not get Japan out of the hole dug in Q2 (…and Q1…and Q4). Japan has been struggling for some time with a variety of issues. Quite distressingly, [...]

• Component declines are broad-based. • Pricing power improves. The Empire State General Business Conditions Index edged lower to 6.3 this month after easing to 10.5 in October. Nevertheless, it was the fifth consecutive positive [...]

• Revenues decline and outlays surge. The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal budget deficit increased to $284.1 billion during October compared to $134.5 billion twelve months earlier. The Action Economics Survey [...]

EMU GDP and across the EMU made rousing gains in Q3. The percentage gains Q/Q exceeded the percentage losses for the previous quarter in every case except for Denmark and Finland. Despite that gap (and the illusory arithmetic of those [...]

• Lower mortgage interest rates combine with higher income combine to raise affordability. • Housing affordability improvement follows four straight monthly declines. The National Association of Realtors reported that its Fixed Rate [...]