Economy in Brief: August 2020

• Oil prices improve again. • Nonoil prices increase steadily. Import prices increased 0.7% (-3.3% y/y) during July following an unrevised 1.4% June gain. A 0.5% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. During [...]

• State initial jobless claims declined to 963,000 in the week ending August 8, the lowest level since March 14. • Federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance new filers decreased to 488,622. • Continuing claims for state programs down [...]

• Monthly budget deficit pulls fiscal YTD deficit to $2.807 trillion. • Receipts weaken while outlays surge. The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a $63.0 billion budget deficit last month, compared to [...]

• Core goods & services pricing power firms. • Energy prices continue to strengthen. • Food prices ease. Pricing power at the retail level picked up last month as economic activity overall recovered in the spring. The Consumer Price [...]

There are at least two views of the ongoing European recovery in production. One is expressed by the chart. It shows a relatively strong V-shaped rebound but one that leaves output still declining on balance in each major sector [...]

• Mortgage applications rose 6.8% in week ending August 7. • A 9.1% increase in refinance applications led the increase. Purchase applications were up 2.0%. • Major mortgage interest rates fell to new lows for the history of the [...]

ZEW expectations have been high for several months. They were last negative in March then swung about 75 points in one month to hold to a positive reading in April. Despite different country and area experiences, the positive readings [...]

• Prices less food & energy rise after three straight monthly declines. • Energy prices are strong while food costs slip. • Core goods prices strengthen; services prices rebound. Pricing power in the industrial sector improved last [...]