Tom Moeller

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>
<body>
	 
 
 
 

 <a href="/comment/180619a.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/180619a.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/180619b.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/180619b.png"></a>

Total housing starts rose 5.0% (20.3% y/y) during May to
1.350 million units (SAAR) from 1.286 million in April, revised from 1.287
million. It was the highest level of starts since July 2007. A level of 1.305
million starts had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Starts of single-family homes improved 3.9% last month (18.3%
y/y) to 936,000, following a 2.2% April rise to 901,000. Starts of multi-family
units rebounded 7.5% to 414,000 units after a 13.5% decline to 385,000 units.

The rise in starts last month was dominated by
the Midwest where housing starts surged by roughly two-thirds both m/m and y/y
to 266,000. That followed a 9.9% April decline. Elsewhere around the country
housing starts fell. Housing starts in the Northeast were off 15.0% (+20.0% y/y)
to 102,000, the lowest level since December. Starts in the West fell 4.1% (+4.8%
y/y) to 329,000, the lowest level since September. Starts in the South eased
0.9% (+16.8% y/y) to 653,000 after a 4.6% gain.

Building permits declined 4.6% (+8.0% y/y) to 1.301 million
units following a 0.9% April fall. Single-family permits were off 2.2% (+7.7%
y/y) to 844,000 after a 1.4% rise. Permits to build multi-family homes fell 8.8%
(+8.6% y/y) to 457,000, after declining 4.8%.

The housing starts and permits figures can be found in
Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.

<a href="/comment/180619c.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/180619c.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/180619d.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/180619d.png"></a>

<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >Housing Starts (000s, SAAR)</th>
 <th scope="col" >May</th>
 <th scope="col" >Apr</th>
 <th scope="col" >Mar</th>
 <th scope="col" >May Y/Y %</th>
 <th scope="col" >2017</th>
 <th scope="col" >2016</th>
 <th scope="col" >2015</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Total</td>
 <td >1,350</td>
 <td >1,286</td>
 <td >1,327</td>
 <td >20.3</td>
 <td >1,203</td>
 <td >1,174</td>
 <td >1,112</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Single-Family</td>
 <td >936</td>
 <td >901</td>
 <td >882</td>
 <td >18.3</td>
 <td >859</td>
 <td >782</td>
 <td >715</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Multi-Family&nbsp;</td>
 <td >414</td>
 <td >385</td>
 <td >445</td>
 <td >25.1</td>
 <td >354</td>
 <td >392</td>
 <td >397</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="grey3">
 <td class="firstcol" colSpan="8" >Starts By Region</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Northeast</td>
 <td >102</td>
 <td >120</td>
 <td >120</td>
 <td >20.0</td>
 <td >111</td>
 <td >116</td>
 <td >138</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Midwest</td>
 <td >266</td>
 <td >164</td>
 <td >182</td>
 <td >62.2</td>
 <td >180</td>
 <td >182</td>
 <td >153</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;South</td>
 <td >653</td>
 <td >659</td>
 <td >630</td>
 <td >16.8</td>
 <td >599</td>
 <td >585</td>
 <td >556</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;West</td>
 <td >329</td>
 <td >343</td>
 <td >395</td>
 <td >4.8</td>
 <td >313</td>
 <td >291</td>
 <td >265</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >Building Permits</td>
 <td >1,301</td>
 <td >1,364</td>
 <td >1,377</td>
 <td >8.0</td>
 <td >1,282</td>
 <td >1,207</td>
 <td >1,183</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
 </table>
 
</body></html>

Total housing starts rose 5.0% (20.3% y/y) during May to 1.350 million units (SAAR) from 1.286 million in April, revised from 1.287 million. It was the highest level of starts since July 2007. A level of 1.305 million starts had been [...]

U.S. Housing Starts Recover to 11-Year High

Robert Brusca

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>

	 
 
 
 
 

<a href="/comment/180618e.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/180618e.png" align="left"></a>
In May, Japan has logged its second trade deficit in 13 months and only its third in the last 28 months. Technically, the deficit was generated by a 1% drop in exports combined with a 10.6% surge in imports.

The yen has been gradually rising against the dollar over the past year, but its overall situation is more complicated than that. The dollar sharply depreciated in May falling to 109.7 from April’s 107.7, a one month drop of 1.9%, corresponding to a 25% annual rate of decline. The yen also fell against the dollar for two months in a row at an annual pace of 19%. The broad real yen has been falling at a 10% annual rate over the last two months as well. Year over year, however, the yen is still rising vs. the dollar but its falling on a real broad trade-weighted basis. Japan does most of its trading with China. The United States is Japan’s second largest trade partner. Exchange rate movements vs. China dominate movements in the real broad yen index.

In part because of these exchange rate movements, Japan’s export prices are rising by 2.4% over 12 months and faster over three months. Export prices tend to rise faster when a currency is weakening since exporters can increase their mark-up in domestic currency units and still drop their prices in foreign currency terms. Import prices are up by 6.4% over 12 months and rise even faster over three months. Import prices rise faster when a currency weakens as the higher cost of foreign exchange is added to the imported product’s price. So Japan’s exports and imports are reacting to a weakening yen. Import prices are rising faster than export prices, which is also what should happen when the yen weakens.

Japan’s trade flows in real terms show gains over 12 months with imports rising faster than exports in real terms. This should not continue if the yen continues to weaken, since a weakening yen makes imports more expensive. Weakening is what the yen is doing vs. the dollar over three months, but it is not doing that in real terms on a broad basis over three months. However, the broad real yen is moving very little recently.

Import and export prices are not just a function of currency movements; they also are due to domestic and foreign activity. Relatively stronger Japan imports compared to exports over 12 months suggest that Japan faces relatively mild demand for its goods in overseas markets while domestic demand is ramping up despite fast rising import prices – that should be short-lived. And the data are suggestive on this point as real imports are falling on balance over three months despite their one-month surge in May.

Of course, Japan’s domestic demand has not been very strong as GDP contracted in the first quarter. We would not expect such strong import demand at this time. Japan’s trade and its export and import price movements suggest some adjustment is in progress over trade flows and that the flows have not fully settled into their new trends.

Monthly data on the year-over-year changes in nominal exports and imports show that exports slowed through March and have since picked up. Imports have followed roughly the same profile.

The terms of trade are a shorthand method for gauging the welfare impact of exchange rate changes and other factors that affect export and import price developments. The ‘terms of trade’ refers to the export-to-import price ratio. When the terms of trade rise (improve), a nation’s welfare improves since it can sell goods for higher prices relative to purchases. When the terms fall, a country is getting less for its export sales relative to imports. This is, of course, a consumption view of the effect. Japan has been seeing its terms of trade fall over the last two years as the ratio 24 months ago was at 1.02 and 12 months ago it was 101.8 while in May it stands at 98.8. Looked at either way, exports are either bringing in less remuneration relative to imports or imports are costing more relative to exports. Another impact of this is that as the yen weakens Japan becomes more competitive. Goods may cost more, but jobs become more secure and job growth might even get stronger. For Japan, with a shrinking population, that is less of an enticement.

Japan’s economic position is hard to characterize. Its sector indexes are weakening according to the METI indexes and Teikoku indexes. Inflation, Chronically below target, has actually softened. On the bright side, Japan’s retail sales recently have shown some spunk. Still, Japan is in a difficult spot. U.S. ongoing negotiations with North Korea and trade sanctions hover over its head as either a direct or indirect problem. North Korean talks with the U.S. are ‘portrayed’ as having gone well, but there was nothing specific in the meeting to give Japan solace over North Korea’s missile tests or capacities. In addition, there is the trade row and the new, aggressive, U.S. posture. U.S. policy on metals tariffs is far ranging. But its most devastating attack is on China which has retaliated. China is Japan’s largest trade partner. The IMF has warned that there could be adverse effects from this aggression on global trade and growth. It is hard to handicap how much these concerns will affect growth and how much it might influence businesses to become more defensive and what the spillover effects might be. There are many things to weigh here. Japan itself has a lot of irons in these fires. Japan definitely faces outcome risk over the next few months. Odds are that it will not emerge unscathed.


<img border="0" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/180618.png" width="660" height="520">



</html>

In May, Japan has logged its second trade deficit in 13 months and only its third in the last 28 months. Technically, the deficit was generated by a 1% drop in exports combined with a 10.6% surge in imports. The yen has been gradually [...]

Japan's Loses Its Trade Surplus

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>
<body>
	 
 
 
 

 <a href="/comment/180618a.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/180618a.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/180618b.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/180618b.png"></a>

The Composite Housing Market Index from the National
Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo fell 2.9% (+3.0% y/y) to 68 during June
and retraced its May increase to 70. The latest reading compared to
expectations for 70 in the Informa Global Markets Survey. The NAHB figures are
seasonally adjusted. During the last ten years, there has been a 57% correlation
between the y/y change in the home builders index and the y/y change in new home sales.

The index of present sales conditions in the housing market
eased 1.3% (+4.2% y/y) to 75 and remained below its December high of 80. The
index for conditions in the next six months slipped to 76 (+1.3% y/y), the lowest level since November.

Home builders reported that the traffic of prospective buyers
index slipped m/m to 50 and was down from its December high of 58.

Amongst the regional indexes, the index for the Midwest fell
4.5% (-5.9% y/y) to 64 and was down versus the December high of 76. The index for
the South declined 2.8% (+1.5% y/y) to 69 and was down from the high of 75 six
months ago. Countering these declines was an 8.9% rise (32.6% y/y) in the index for the Northeast
to 61. Its level equaled the highest point since December 2005. The reading for the West
improved 1.3% (7.0% y/y) to 76 and made up its May decline.

The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It
reflects survey questions asking builders to rate market conditions as
&quot;good,&quot; &quot;fair,&quot; &quot;poor&quot; or &quot;very high&quot; to
&quot;very low.&quot; The figure is thus a diffusion index with numerical
results six over 50 indicating a predominance of &quot;good&quot; readings. The
weights assigned to the individual index components are .5920 for single-family
detached sales, present time, .1358 for single-family detached sales, next
months and .2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The results are included in
Haver's SURVEYS database. The expectations figure is available in Haver's
MMSAMER database.

Some Industries Encountering Worker Shortages from the
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is available <a href="https://www.frbatlanta.org/economy-matters/community-and-economic-development/2018/06/14/some-industries-encountering-worker-shortages">here</a>.

<a href="/comment/180618c.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/180618c.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/180618d.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/180618d.png"></a>

<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >National Association of Home
 Builders</th>
 <th scope="col" >Jun</th>
 <th scope="col" >May</th>
 <th scope="col" >Apr</th>
 <th scope="col" >Jun '17</th>
 <th scope="col" >2017</th>
 <th scope="col" >2016</th>
 <th scope="col" >2015</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Composite Housing Market Index, SA (All
 Good=100)</td>
 <td >68</td>
 <td >70</td>
 <td >68</td>
 <td >66</td>
 <td >68</td>
 <td >61</td>
 <td >59</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Single-Family Sales: Present</td>
 <td >75</td>
 <td >76</td>
 <td >74</td>
 <td >72</td>
 <td >74</td>
 <td >67</td>
 <td >64</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Single-Family Sales: Next Six
 Months</td>
 <td >76</td>
 <td >77</td>
 <td >77</td>
 <td >75</td>
 <td >76</td>
 <td >67</td>
 <td >66</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Traffic of Prospective Buyers</td>
 <td >50</td>
 <td >51</td>
 <td >49</td>
 <td >51</td>
 <td >50</td>
 <td >45</td>
 <td >43</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
 </table>
 
</body></html>

The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo fell 2.9% (+3.0% y/y) to 68 during June and retraced its May increase to 70. The latest reading compared to expectations for 70 in the [...]

U.S. Home Builder Index Backpedals

<html>

<head>
<meta http-equiv="Content-Type" content="text/html; charset=windows-1252">
<meta name="GENERATOR" content="Microsoft FrontPage 4.0">
<meta name="ProgId" content="FrontPage.Editor.Document">
<title>FIBER</title>
</head>



 
 
The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business
Conditions rose to 25.0 during June, the highest level in eight months.
Expectations had been for 18.0 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These
data, reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, reflect business
conditions in New York, northern New Jersey and southern Connecticut.
Haver Analytics calculates a seasonally adjusted index that
is comparable to the ISM series. The calculated figure increased to 58.2, the
highest level since March 2006. During the last ten years, the index has had a
69% correlation with the quarter-on-quarter change in real GDP.
Most of the components of the Empire State Survey improved
this month. The new orders index rose to 21.3, the highest level since November.
The shipments index similarly displayed strength with its rise to 23.5, the
highest figure in six months. The unfilled orders measure also rose, but the
delivery times series eased to 13.2 and indicated the quickest delivery speeds
since February. The inventory index fell to a four-month low of 5.4.
The number of employees reading strengthened to 19.0, a
six-month high. During the last ten years, there has been a 77% correlation
between the employment index and the month-on-month change in factory sector
payrolls. While 24% of respondents reported a higher payroll level, 5% reported
a lower hiring level. Working the other way, the employee workweek reading rose
to 12.0, and was well above the recent low of 0.8 in January.
The prices paid index slipped to 52.7, but remained up
sharply from its October 2015 low of 0.9. Fifty-four percent of respondents
indicated increased prices, while just two percent reported a decline. The
prices received index improved to 23.3 and also was near the highest level since
2011.
The series measuring expectations of business conditions in
six months strengthened to 38.9 but remained down versus its February high of
50.5. Most of the expectation series improved m/m, except the price measures and
capital &amp; technology spending readings.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes, which are
calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting declines from
those reporting gains. The data are available in Haver's SURVEYS
database. The ISM-adjusted headline index dates back to 2001. The Action
Economics Forecasts can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" width="1263">Empire State Manufacturing
 Survey</th>
 <th scope="col" width="86">Jun</th>
 <th scope="col" width="86">May</th>
 <th scope="col" width="86">Apr</th>
 <th scope="col" width="86">Jun'17</th>
 <th scope="col" width="86">2017</th>
 <th scope="col" width="87">2016</th>
 <th scope="col" width="87">2015</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1263">General Business Conditions (Diffusion
 Index, %, SA)</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">25.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">20.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">15.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">18.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">16.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="87">-2.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="87">-2.3</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1263">General Business Conditions Index (ISM
 Adjusted, &gt;50=Increasing Activity, SA)</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">58.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">56.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">55.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">55.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">54.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="87">48.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="87">48.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1263">&nbsp; New Orders</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">21.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">16.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">9.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">16.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">14.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="87">-0.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="87">-5.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="1263">&nbsp; Shipments</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">23.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">19.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">17.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">19.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">15.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="87">1.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="87">4.0</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1263">&nbsp; Unfilled Orders</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">9.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">5.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">3.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">4.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">1.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="87">-8.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="87">-10.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="1263">&nbsp; Delivery Time</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">13.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">13.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">15.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">5.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">6.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="87">-4.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="87">-5.3</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1263">&nbsp; Inventories</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">5.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">10.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">8.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">7.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">1.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="87">-9.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="87">-7.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="1263">&nbsp; Number of Employees</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">19.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">8.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">6.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">3.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">8.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="87">-5.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="87">2.3</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1263">&nbsp; Average Employee Workweek</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">12.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">11.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">16.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">4.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">4.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="87">-5.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="87">-4.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1263">&nbsp; Prices Paid</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">52.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">54.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">47.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">20.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">29.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="87">15.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="87">8.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="1263">&nbsp; Prices Received</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">23.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">23.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">20.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">10.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">11.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="87">0.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="87">1.2</td>
 </tr>
 
 <td class="firstcol" width="1263">Expectations 6 Months Ahead</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">38.9</td>
 
 <td align="center" width="86">31.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">18.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">41.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="86">42.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="87">29.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="87">30.</td>
 
 


&nbsp;
U.S. Industrial Production Slips Unexpectedly 
by <a href="http://haver.com/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a>&nbsp;&nbsp;June
15, 2018
The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production eased
0.1% (+3.5% y/y) during May following a 0.9% April rise, revised from 0.7%. A
0.2% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Factory
sector production declined 0.7% (+1.7% y/y) and reversed April's 0.6% gain,
revised from 0.5%. Utility output strengthened 1.1% (4.0% y/y) after a 3.2%
increase. Mining production improved 1.8% (12.5% y/y) following a 1.0%
improvement.
The surprising decline in production partially reflected a
1.0% fall (+1.5% y/y) in consumer goods output which reversed the prior month's
increase. Durable consumer goods production declined 3.0% (0.0% y/y) after a
0.8% fall. Automotive product output declined 5.5% (-1.5% y/y) following a 1.9%
shortfall. Computer, video &amp; related production improved 0.8% (4.7% y/y)
after a 0.1% uptick. Appliance, furniture &amp; carpeting production fell 1.2%
(-1.5% y/y) and countered the prior month's 1.7% rise. Nondurable consumer goods
production fell 0.4% (+1.9% y/y) following a 1.5% gain. Energy product output
weakened 1.6% (-0.2% y/y) after a 3.7% increase. Apparel production declined
1.9% (0.0% y/y) after a 2.4% gain. Paper product output weakened 1.1% (-2.2%
y/y) after a 0.8% increase. Food &amp; tobacco production fell 0.3% (3.1% y/y)
following a 1.1% improvement. Working the other way, chemical product production
rose 0.5% (2.8% y/y) after a 0.4% gain.
Production of business equipment declined 1.1% last month
(+1.0% y/y) and reversed April's 1.1% rise. Transit equipment production fell
3.5% (-2.9% y/y) following a 0.3% dip. Production of information processing
equipment slipped 0.1% (+4.8% y/y) following four straight months of strong
increase. Industrial equipment &amp; other equipment production fell 0.4% (+1.4%
y/y) after a 1.8% rise.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; 
Construction supplies output notched 0.1% higher (3.6% y/y)
after a 0.5% increase.
Production of materials improved 0.5% (5.5% y/y) after a 0.9%
increase. Energy product materials output increased 2.0% (11.0% y/y) after two
months of roughly 1.2% gain. Durable goods materials output fell 0.8% (+2.7%
y/y) following a 0.5% rise and nondurable goods materials held steady (0.9% y/y)
following a 0.9% gain.
In the special aggregate groupings, production of selected
high-technology industries rose 0.2% (6.3% y/y) following a 1.8% jump. Nonenergy
production excluding high-tech retreated 0.6% (+1.7% y/y) and reversed a 0.6%
rise. Factory sector production excluding both high-tech and autos eased 0.2%
(+1.9% y/y) after a 0.8% strengthening.
Capacity utilization eased to 77.9% from its three-year high
of 78.1%. Factory sector capacity utilization declined to 75.3%, the lowest
level since January. Manufacturing sector capacity increased 1.0% y/y.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in
Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The
expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
<table width="1871" class="centered" border="0" cellSpacing="0">
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" width="916">Industrial Production (SA, %
 Change)</th>
 <th scope="col" width="135">May</th>
 <th scope="col" width="136">Apr</th>
 <th scope="col" width="136">Mar</th>
 <th scope="col" width="136">May Y/Y</th>
 <th scope="col" width="136">2017</th>
 <th scope="col" width="136">2016</th>
 <th scope="col" width="136">2015</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="916">Total Output</td>
 <td align="center" width="135">-0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">0.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">0.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">3.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">1.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">-2.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">-1.0</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="916">Manufacturing</td>
 <td align="center" width="135">-0.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">0.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">-0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">1.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">1.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">-0.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">0.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="916">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Consumer Goods</td>
 <td align="center" width="135">-1.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">1.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">1.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">0.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">0.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">1.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="916">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Business Equipment</td>
 <td align="center" width="135">-1.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">1.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">1.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">3.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">-5.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">-2.0</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="916">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Construction Supplies</td>
 <td align="center" width="135">0.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">0.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">-1.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">3.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">2.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">0.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">0.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="916">&nbsp; Materials</td>
 <td align="center" width="135">0.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">0.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">0.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">5.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">2.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">-3.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">-1.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="916">Utilities</td>
 <td align="center" width="135">1.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">3.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">4.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">4.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">-1.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">-0.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">-0.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="916">Mining</td>
 <td align="center" width="135">1.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">1.0</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">1.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">12.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">6.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">-9.7</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">-3.4</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" width="916">Capacity Utilization (%)</td>
 <td align="center" width="135">77.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">78.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">77.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">76.2</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">78.1</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">75.4</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">77.3</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" width="916">&nbsp;Manufacturing</td>
 <td align="center" width="135">75.3</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">75.9</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">75.5</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">74.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">74.8</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">74.6</td>
 <td align="center" width="136">75.8</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>





</html>

The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions rose to 25.0 during June, the highest level in eight months. Expectations had been for 18.0 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These data, reported by the [...]

Empire State Manufacturing Index Continues to Strengthen

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>
<body>
	 
 
 
 


<a href="/comment/180615f.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/180615f.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/180615g.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/180615g.png"></a>
The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production eased
0.1% (+3.5% y/y) during May following a 0.9% April rise, revised from 0.7%. A
0.2% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Factory sector production declined 0.7% (+1.7% y/y) and reversed April's 0.6%
gain, revised from 0.5%. Utility output strengthened 1.1% (4.0% y/y) after a
3.2% increase. Mining production improved 1.8% (12.5% y/y) following a 1.0%
improvement.
The surprising decline in production partially reflected a
1.0% fall (+1.5% y/y) in consumer goods output which reversed the prior month's
increase. Durable consumer goods production declined 3.0% (0.0% y/y) after a
0.8% fall. Automotive product output declined 5.5% (-1.5% y/y) following a 1.9%
shortfall. Computer, video &amp; related production improved 0.8% (4.7% y/y) after a
0.1% uptick. Appliance, furniture &amp; carpeting production fell 1.2% (-1.5% y/y)
and countered the prior month's 1.7% rise. Nondurable consumer goods production
fell 0.4% (+1.9% y/y) following a 1.5% gain. Energy product output weakened 1.6%
(-0.2%
y/y) after a 3.7% increase. Apparel production declined 1.9% (0.0% y/y) after a
2.4% gain. Paper product output weakened 1.1% (-2.2% y/y) after a 0.8% increase.
Food &amp; tobacco production fell 0.3% (3.1% y/y) following a 1.1% improvement.
Working the other way, chemical product production rose 0.5% (2.8% y/y) after a
0.4% gain.
Production of business equipment declined 1.1% last month
(+1.0% y/y) and reversed April's 1.1% rise. Transit equipment production fell
3.5% (-2.9% y/y) following a 0.3% dip. Production of information processing
equipment slipped 0.1% (+4.8% y/y) following four straight months of strong
increase. Industrial equipment &amp; other equipment production fell 0.4% (+1.4%
y/y) after a 1.8% rise.&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Construction supplies output notched 0.1% higher (3.6% y/y) after a
0.5% increase.
Production of materials improved 0.5% (5.5% y/y) after a 0.9%
increase. Energy product materials output increased 2.0% (11.0% y/y) after two
months of roughly 1.2% gain. Durable goods materials output fell 0.8% (+2.7% y/y) following a
0.5% rise and nondurable goods materials held steady (0.9% y/y) following a 0.9% gain.
In the special aggregate groupings, production of selected
high-technology industries rose 0.2% (6.3% y/y) following a 1.8% jump. Nonenergy
production excluding high-tech retreated 0.6% (+1.7% y/y) and reversed a 0.6%
rise.
Factory sector production excluding both high-tech and autos eased 0.2% (+1.9%
y/y) after a 0.8% strengthening.
Capacity utilization eased to 77.9% from its three-year high
of 78.1%. Factory sector capacity utilization declined to 75.3%, the lowest
level since January. Manufacturing
sector capacity increased 1.0% y/y.
Industrial production and capacity data are included in
Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the IP database. The
expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.

<a href="/comment/180615h.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/180615h.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/180615i.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/180615i.png"></a>



<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >Industrial Production (SA, %
 Change)</th>
 <th scope="col" >May</th>
 <th scope="col" >Apr</th>
 <th scope="col" >Mar</th>
 <th scope="col" >May Y/Y</th>
 <th scope="col" >2017</th>
 <th scope="col" >2016</th>
 <th scope="col" >2015</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Total Output</td>
 <td >-0.1</td>
 <td >0.9</td>
 <td >0.5</td>
 <td >3.5</td>
 <td >1.6</td>
 <td >-2.0</td>
 <td >-1.0</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >Manufacturing</td>
 <td >-0.7</td>
 <td >0.6</td>
 <td >-0.1</td>
 <td >1.7</td>
 <td >1.2</td>
 <td >-0.8</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Consumer Goods</td>
 <td >-1.0</td>
 <td >1.0</td>
 <td >0.4</td>
 <td >1.5</td>
 <td >0.0</td>
 <td >0.7</td>
 <td >1.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Business Equipment</td>
 <td >-1.1</td>
 <td >1.1</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >1.0</td>
 <td >3.2</td>
 <td >-5.3</td>
 <td >-2.0</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Construction Supplies</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >0.5</td>
 <td >-1.0</td>
 <td >3.6</td>
 <td >2.5</td>
 <td >0.9</td>
 <td >0.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Materials</td>
 <td >0.5</td>
 <td >0.9</td>
 <td >0.8</td>
 <td >5.5</td>
 <td >2.0</td>
 <td >-3.0</td>
 <td >-1.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Utilities</td>
 <td >1.1</td>
 <td >3.2</td>
 <td >4.1</td>
 <td >4.0</td>
 <td >-1.3</td>
 <td >-0.4</td>
 <td >-0.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Mining</td>
 <td >1.8</td>
 <td >1.0</td>
 <td >1.4</td>
 <td >12.5</td>
 <td >6.4</td>
 <td >-9.7</td>
 <td >-3.4</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >Capacity Utilization (%)</td>
 <td >77.9</td>
 <td >78.1</td>
 <td >77.5</td>
 <td >76.2</td>
 <td >78.1</td>
 <td >75.4</td>
 <td >77.3</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;Manufacturing</td>
 <td >75.3</td>
 <td >75.9</td>
 <td >75.5</td>
 <td >74.8</td>
 <td >74.8</td>
 <td >74.6</td>
 <td >75.8</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>


</body>

</html>

The Federal Reserve reported that industrial production eased 0.1% (+3.5% y/y) during May following a 0.9% April rise, revised from 0.7%. A 0.2% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Factory sector [...]

U.S. Industrial Production Slips Unexpectedly

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>

	 

 
 
 


<a href="/comment/180615e.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/180615e.png" align="left"></a>

The EMU trade balance shrank in April, stepping back to a surplus of €18.1bln from €19.8 bln in March. One year ago the surplus stood at €20.4 bln. Exports nudged higher in April rising by 0.3% while imports surged by 1.4%. That combination of evens made the trade deficit smaller.

However, a shrinking surplus is not something that is well entrenched in European trade trends. Over three months exports are falling by 6.7% with imports falling by a lesser 4.3%. This pair of growth rates also reinforces a smaller deficit trend. But over six-months and 12-months the export and import growth rates are nearly identical and there is not much deficit shrinkage in the cards on those trends.

In the wake of the G7 summit, trade is obviously in a special spot light. Today, US President, Donald Trump indicated 25% tariffs on $50bln of US imports from Chinese. China wasted no time in offering the same tariffs on $50bln of US exports to China. It is not going to stop there. The US continues to make waves over trade on a broad front and the cold war over trade has just heated up. The G7 tiff was an hors d’oeuvres compared to this. Trade and trade performance is going to continue to be an issue in this tainted atmosphere. But it is also true that to a large extent the trend and fundamentals are perceived to be established and the Trump administration is looking for leverage to change results.

We see the stubborn trend in EMU manufacturing trade. Those exports and imports show imploding flows in progress with three month export and import flows declining and 12 month flows showing some gain. But on each horizon 3-months, 6-months and 12-months, exports are either stronger than imports or growing at the same pace. There is no trend ‘improvement’ that diminishes the surplus in manufacturing trade.

Non-manufacturing flows show the opposite trends. But they are substantially affected by commodity prices and especially oil. Imports of non-manufactures are stronger than exports on all horizons.

Beyond the EMU trends we offer samples of export trends from six other European nations. Five of six show exports declining over 3-months. Over six months most exports also show stable or slowing trends. And compared to one year ago the current year-over-year trends are lower. There is a broad slowdown in exports to couple with the stubborn EMU surplus.

Now, we are on the slippery slope with trade. This is no longer saber-rattling. This is stabbing and cutting and hacking. Damage will be done. The global economy already is showing some signs of slowing. The US continues to be the most resilient but US economic signals are still somewhat spotty despite the recent strength in US retail sales and in manufacturing PMI reports. Today’s drop in in US industrial output is an example of how no sector is safe or dependable. It is still too soon to know if the Trump tax cuts and fiscal reforms are going to deliver growth in the US. The European slowdown is severe enough to capture attention of newspaper reporters. Japan has cuts its outlook for inflation, but not growth. And, despite slowing in Europe and some very weak recent numbers from Germany, the Bundesbank has just cut is outlook and describes the situation as a boom with ‘strong wage growth’ and higher domestic inflation. Frankly I don’t think I have seen that particular German economy. But what’s important is that although the Bundesbank does, it’s the ECB that makes monetary policy.



<img border="0" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/180615.png" width="645" height="520">
</html>

The EMU trade balance shrank in April, stepping back to a surplus of €18.1bln from €19.8 bln in March. One year ago the surplus stood at €20.4 bln. Exports nudged higher in April rising by 0.3% while imports surged by 1.4%. That [...]

EMU Trade Deficit Shrinks

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>

	 
 
 
 

<a href="/comment/180615a.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/180615a.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/180615b.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/180615b.png"></a>

The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business
Conditions rose to 25.0 during June, the highest level in eight months.
Expectations had been for 18.0 in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These
data, reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, reflect business
conditions in New York, northern New Jersey and southern Connecticut.
Haver Analytics calculates a seasonally adjusted index that
is comparable to the ISM series. The calculated figure increased to 58.2, the
highest level since March 2006. During the last ten years, the index has had a
69% correlation with the quarter-on-quarter change in real GDP.
Most of the components of the Empire State Survey improved
this month. The new orders index rose to 21.3, the highest level since November.
The shipments index similarly displayed strength with its rise to 23.5, the
highest figure in six months. The unfilled orders measure also rose, but the
delivery times series eased to 13.2 and indicated the quickest delivery speeds
since February. The inventory index fell to a four-month low of 5.4.
The number of employees reading strengthened to 19.0, a
six-month high. During the last ten years, there has been a 77% correlation
between the employment index and the month-on-month change in factory sector
payrolls. While 24% of respondents reported a higher payroll level, 5% reported
a lower hiring level. Working the other way, the employee workweek reading rose
to 12.0, and was well above the recent low of 0.8 in January.
The prices paid index slipped to 52.7, but remained up
sharply from its October 2015 low of 0.9. Fifty-four percent of respondents
indicated increased prices, while just two percent reported a decline. The
prices received index improved to 23.3 and also was near the highest level since
2011.
The series measuring expectations of business conditions in
six months strengthened to 38.9 but remained down versus its February high of
50.5. Most of the expectation series improved m/m, except the price measures and
capital &amp; technology spending readings.
The Empire State figures are diffusion indexes, which are
calculated by subtracting the percent of respondents reporting declines from
those reporting gains. The data are available in Haver's SURVEYS
database. The ISM-adjusted headline index dates back to 2001. The Action
Economics Forecasts can be found in Haver's AS1REPNA database.

<a href="/comment/180615c.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/180615c.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/180615d.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/180615d.png"></a>



<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" >Empire State Manufacturing
 Survey</th>
 <th scope="col" >Jun</th>
 <th scope="col" >May</th>
 <th scope="col" >Apr</th>
 <th scope="col" >Jun'17</th>
 <th scope="col" >2017</th>
 <th scope="col" >2016</th>
 <th scope="col" >2015</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >General Business Conditions (Diffusion
 Index, %, SA)</td>
 <td >25.0</td>
 <td >20.1</td>
 <td >15.8</td>
 <td >18.1</td>
 <td >16.1</td>
 <td >-2.6</td>
 <td >-2.3</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >General Business Conditions Index (ISM
 Adjusted, &gt;50=Increasing Activity, SA)</td>
 <td >58.2</td>
 <td >56.8</td>
 <td >55.2</td>
 <td >55.2</td>
 <td >54.6</td>
 <td >48.2</td>
 <td >48.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; New Orders</td>
 <td >21.3</td>
 <td >16.0</td>
 <td >9.0</td>
 <td >16.1</td>
 <td >14.6</td>
 <td >-0.8</td>
 <td >-5.6</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Shipments</td>
 <td >23.5</td>
 <td >19.1</td>
 <td >17.5</td>
 <td >19.0</td>
 <td >15.9</td>
 <td >1.9</td>
 <td >4.0</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Unfilled Orders</td>
 <td >9.3</td>
 <td >5.0</td>
 <td >3.7</td>
 <td >4.6</td>
 <td >1.9</td>
 <td >-8.8</td>
 <td >-10.5</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Delivery Time</td>
 <td >13.2</td>
 <td >13.7</td>
 <td >15.6</td>
 <td >5.4</td>
 <td >6.1</td>
 <td >-4.8</td>
 <td >-5.3</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Inventories</td>
 <td >5.4</td>
 <td >10.1</td>
 <td >8.1</td>
 <td >7.7</td>
 <td >1.5</td>
 <td >-9.6</td>
 <td >-7.1</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Number of Employees</td>
 <td >19.0</td>
 <td >8.7</td>
 <td >6.0</td>
 <td >3.5</td>
 <td >8.3</td>
 <td >-5.1</td>
 <td >2.3</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Average Employee Workweek</td>
 <td >12.0</td>
 <td >11.1</td>
 <td >16.9</td>
 <td >4.3</td>
 <td >4.9</td>
 <td >-5.2</td>
 <td >-4.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Prices Paid</td>
 <td >52.7</td>
 <td >54.0</td>
 <td >47.4</td>
 <td >20.0</td>
 <td >29.0</td>
 <td >15.7</td>
 <td >8.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp; Prices Received</td>
 <td >23.3</td>
 <td >23.0</td>
 <td >20.7</td>
 <td >10.8</td>
 <td >11.0</td>
 <td >0.7</td>
 <td >1.2</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Expectations 6 Months Ahead</td>
 <td >38.9</td>
 <td >31.1</td>
 <td >18.3</td>
 <td >41.4</td>
 <td >42.6</td>
 <td >29.0</td>
 <td >30.3</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
</table>
</html>

Gerald D. Cohen

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
</head>
<body>
	 
 
 
 

 <a href="/comment/180614a.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/180614a.png"></a>
	 <a href="/comment/180614b.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/180614b.png"></a>

Import prices increased 0.6% during May (4.3% year-on-year), the second consecutive monthly growth of that magnitude; April’s gain was revised higher. A 0.4% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These figures are not seasonally adjusted..

A 5.9% jump in petroleum import costs (31.9% y/y) led import prices higher last month. In April these prices were up 4.4%. Nonpetroleum import prices ticked 0.1% higher for the second consecutive month (1.8% y/y). Among end-use categories, prices of foods, feeds and beverages rose 0.4% (1.6% y/y). Industrial supplies and materials prices excluding petroleum increased 0.2% (7.6% y/y). Capital goods prices edged down 0.1% (+0.9% y/y) with prices of computers, peripherals & semiconductors decreasing 0.4% (+0.8% y/y). Capital goods prices excluding computers, semiconductors & peripherals held steady (1.0% y/y). Prices of motor vehicles and parts edged down 0.1% (-0.1% y/y). Prices of consumer goods excluding automobiles improved 0.1% (0.7% y/y)..

Export prices showed a similar pattern as import prices gaining 0.6% (4.9% y/y) for the second consecutive month. A 0.3% May rise had been expected..

Agricultural export prices grew 1.6% (4.9% y/y) following a 1.2% decline. Nonagricultural export prices increased 0.5% (4.9% y/y) after a 0.7% gain. Among the end-use categories, prices of industrial supplies and materials jumped 1.6% (11.7% y/y), as petroleum prices flared 5.1% (29.7% y/y). Nonagricultural supplies and materials prices excluding fuels and building materials strengthened 0.2% (7.1% y/y). Prices of foods, feeds and beverages chewed 1.0% higher (4.2% y/y). Capital good prices edged up 0.1% (2.0% y/y) with computers, peripherals & semiconductors increasing 0.2% (2.1% y/y). Excluding this sector capital goods prices also grew 0.2% (1.9% y/y). Prices of motor vehicles and parts inched 0.1% higher (0.8% y/y). Prices of consumer goods excluding automobiles edged down 0.1% (+1.5% y/y). .

The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database..

<a href="/comment/180614c.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/180614c.png"></a>
 <a href="/comment/180614d.png" name="modal"><img class="small" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/180614d.png"></a>

<table class="centered" width="100%" border="0" cellspacing="0">
	<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>

 <thead>
 <tr>
 <th class="firstcol" scope="col" ><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E807/@E807.HTM">Import/Export
 Prices (NSA, %)</a></th>
 <th scope="col" >May</th>
 <th scope="col" >Apr</th>
 <th scope="col" >Mar</th>
 <th scope="col" >Y/Y</th>
 <th scope="col" >2017</th>
 <th scope="col" >2016</th>
 <th scope="col" >2015</th>
 </tr>
 </thead>
 <tbody>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >Imports - All Commodities</td>
 <td >0.6</td>
 <td >0.6</td>
 <td >-0.2</td>
 <td >4.3</td>
 <td >2.9</td>
 <td >-3.3</td>
 <td >-10.2</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;Petroleum &amp; Petroleum
 Products</td>
 <td >5.9</td>
 <td >4.4</td>
 <td >-2.5</td>
 <td >31.9</td>
 <td >26.6</td>
 <td >-19.7</td>
 <td >-46.0</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;Nonpetroleum</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >0.1</td>
 <td >0.0</td>
 <td >1.8</td>
 <td >1.1</td>
 <td >-1.5</td>
 <td >-2.8</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >Exports - All Commodities</td>
 <td >0.6</td>
 <td >0.6</td>
 <td >0.3</td>
 <td >4.9</td>
 <td >2.4</td>
 <td >-3.2</td>
 <td >-6.3</td>
 </tr>
 <tr>
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;Agricultural</td>
 <td >1.6</td>
 <td >-1.2</td>
 <td >3.2</td>
 <td >4.9</td>
 <td >1.5</td>
 <td >-5.4</td>
 <td >-13.3</td>
 </tr>
 <tr class="odd">
 <td class="firstcol" >&nbsp;&nbsp;Nonagricultural</td>
 <td >0.5</td>
 <td >0.7</td>
 <td >0.0</td>
 <td >4.9</td>
 <td >2.5</td>
 <td >-3.0</td>
 <td >-5.5</td>
 </tr>
 </tbody>
 </table>
 
</body></html>

Import prices increased 0.6% during May (4.3% year-on-year), the second consecutive monthly growth of that magnitude; April’s gain was revised higher. A 0.4% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. These [...]

Petroleum Drives Gains in U.S. Import and Export Prices

US leader, Germany trailer for real GDP growth over past 3 years

Negative US inflation surprises leading G10 down

Deflation continues in China

Incoming data surprising on downside in US; positive surprises elsewhere

FOMC expects more inflation and less growth than in March

With escalation of Israel/Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has recently surged while US trade policy uncertainty has ebbed

Renewed supply chain pressures point to a rebound in global inflation ahead

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary policy easing

Apart from the US, productivity is moribund

Financial market concerns ebb even though policy uncertainty continues to soar

US tariff revenues nearly doubled in April

Even with expected tariff-induced increases in inflation, BCFF forecasters look for a more aggressive round of monetary easing

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

London

Singapore

Tokyo

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

250725V4.jpg

250725W4.jpg

Durable goods orders fell 9.3% (+10.9% y/y) in during June after rising 16.5% in May, revised from 16.4%. Orders in April fell 6.6%. A 10.0% decline had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

The decline reflected a near-halving of orders for commercial aircraft which pulled total transportation equipment orders down 22.4% (+30.5% y/y). Orders excluding transportation rose 0.2% last month (2.2% y/y) after a 0.6% rise in May. Orders for computers & electronic products rose 0.6% (4.8% y/y) after rising 1.7% in May. Orders for machinery gained 0.4% (3.2% y/y) for the second straight month while electrical equipment, appliances & components orders inched 0.1% higher (4.7% y/y) following a 0.8% May rise. Primary metals orders gained 0.6% (-0.5% y/y) in June following a 0.7% gain and fabricated metals orders rose 0.2% (3.2% y/y) after surging 1.1% in May. Defense aircraft orders rose 9.1% (7.4% y/y) after a 10.2% May decline.

Total shipments increased 0.4% (1.8% y/y) in June following a 0.2% May rise. Shipments of durable goods industries rose 0.5% (2.9% y/y) in June after improving 0.2% in May. Transportation equipment shipments rose 0.8% (4.2% y/y) and machinery shipments gained 1.0% (1.5% y/y). Computer & electronic product shipments edged 0.1% higher (6.3% y/y) and electrical equipment & appliance & components shipments rose 0.7% (4.9% y/y). Primary metals shipments gained 0.6% (2.5% y/y) while fabricated metals shipments rose 0.2% (1.9% y/y). Shipments of nondurable goods 	rose 0.4% (0.6% y/y) following a 0.1% gain.

Unfilled orders for all manufactured products jumped 1.0% (7.1% y/y) in June after a 3.4% May rise. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders rose 0.1% (0.8% y/y), the same as in May. Backlogs of durable goods rose 1.0% (7.1% y/y) in June, reflecting a 1.6% jump (11.4% y/y) in transportation equipment, led by a 2.1% rise (14.7% y/y) in nondefense aircraft. Machinery backlogs eased 0.1% (-1.8% y/y) in June. Electrical equipment, appliances & component backlogs rose 0.1% (1.0% y/y). Order backlogs of computers & electronic products eased 0.1% (-0.2% y/y), off slightly for the third straight month.

Inventories of all manufactured products rose 0.2% (1.1% y/y) in June following a 0.1% gain in May and a 0.1% April decline. Durable goods inventories rose 0.2% (1.5% y/y) for the second straight month. Inventories of machinery gained 0.4% (2.3% y/y) while computer & electronic product inventories rose 0.1% (0.3% y/y) for the second straight month. Transportation inventories eased 0.1% (+1.6% y/y).

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

250725X4.jpg

250725Y4.jpg

- Orders excluding transportation weaken.
- Shipments strengthen.
- Unfilled orders surge, led by aircraft; inventories increase slightly.

U.S. Advance Durable Goods Orders Decline in June as Aircraft Bookings Plunge

250725E.jpg

Hypnotists are just trying to get you to focus on something and concentrate on it so that you can relax and they can put you into a hypnotic trance. Right now, you want to make sure that does not happen as you watch what is going on with money supply. It is not ‘entrancing’ and ought to be followed. The chart shows you that trends - and often excesses in ‘global money supply’ growth have begun in that money center country, the United States of America. And… well… here we go again? While it's very early in the game, it looks like, after a period of monetary weakness and re-escalation, U.S. money growth is now beginning to step up in the U.S. Meanwhile, in Europe and in the United Kingdom, money growth, especially real money growth, is beginning to tail off. All this is at a time when Japan's money growth, of course, has been marching to the step of a different drummer showing regular, consistent, nominal weakness and actual declines in the real money stock to try to tame its incipient inflation.

**The Policy Zone**
We are no longer in the COVID era; or even in the post-COVID era. We are now in the post post-COVID era. And monetary policy is being made based on conditions rather than remedy perceived legacy problems in the economy from COVID. We need to make that transition in our analysis too, and ask ourselves, “What's really happening?” In the U.S., the popular dogma is to claim that central bank independence is being undercut and that Donald Trump's tariffs are going to raise the inflation rate and that the Fed is losing its battle with inflation and inflation is coming because of excessive fiscal policy and the imposition of tariffs. It's a story you can believe if you want to. There's certainly some evidence to support those points; whether they completely justify that point of view, it is still too early to say. However, clearly, money supply growth in the U.S. is ramping up. The U.S. 12-month growth rate is up to 4.5%, over six months the annualized rate hits 5.5%, and over three months the annualized rate hits 6.9%. It's hard to say that that's occurring because of Trump's tariffs. At the same time, the growth rate in real money balances - that's money supply deflated by the CPI - has boosted its growth rate from 1.8% over 12 months to a 2.9% annual rate over six months to a 4.4% annual rate over three months. Is the chase on for an inflation ‘uptick’ that will not be temporary?

**Follow the leader, or go your own way?**
It will take some time to tell if the other money center countries are going to follow the leader or not. So far it looks like ‘or not.’ Money supply growth in the European Monetary Union (EMU) is actually decelerating slightly from 2.8% over 12 months to a 1.7% pace over six months to a 1.3% pace over three months. Similarly, in the EMU the growth of real balances has slipped from 0.8% over 12 months to a 0.2% annual rate over six months to a -0.6% annual rate (contraction) over three months. So far, euro area money supply is not tagging along with the U.S. trend.

**Euro-credit trends**
Meanwhile, private credit growth in Europe has stabilized with the 12-month growth rate of 2.3% that moves up to 2.4% over six months and settles back to 2% over three months, a relatively stable performance that would seem to signal ongoing moderate growth. The growth rate of private credit, deflated for the effects of inflation, shows continued growth, and beyond that the trend is unclear. Over 12 months the growth rate is 0.3%, over six months that improves to 0.8%, and over three months it drops back to a 0.1% pace. I'm not good enough at splitting hair to be able to tell you what that trend is.

**U.K. money weakens**
In the U.K., nominal money supply growth seems to be slowing, but that isn't crystal clear, with the 3.5% annual rate over 12 months moving up to a 4.1% annual rate over six months been slipping back to 1.7% over three months. It may take a few months to be able to tell if the step down to 1.7% is real or just volatility averaging out the step up over six months. U.K. money growth does not appear to be excessive or rogue; when we look at real balances, 12-month growth is -0.4%, six-month growth is -0.1% and the three-month growth rate is -1.6%. On that profile, real money growth in the U.K. does not appear to be following the U.S. rule book either.

**Japan- dealing with its own complex issues**
We know that Japan has been off on its own for a while. Japan clearly has been fighting off a bout of inflation. But, since that development is relatively new, and the previous battle with deflation was relatively long-lived, if we think in terms of inflation averaging, Japan is still dealing with an extremely small problem. Despite the appearance of some real inflation (depending on the price index you look at to establish Japanese inflation trends), Japan's inflation overshoot in contexts is only making up for lost time.

Money growth in Japan is 0.9% over 12 months; however, it's only running at a 0.1% annualized over six months and over three months. The growth of real money balances in Japan is negative. Real balance growth rates are negative on balance over three years and two years; the 12-month growth rate for real money balances is -2.3%, over six months it is -2.2%, and over three months it is -2%. The degree of restriction has faded but faded only very marginally. The main point is that in Japan, real money balances are contracting and so there is a fight to reduce inflation going on behind the scenes and that's clearing up; you can see it in the money growth rates on the chart as well if not from the level or real interest rates. Japan is balancing complex needs.

250725.jpg

**Are tariffs a threat or benign?**
As we sharpen our pencils or fill in our spreadsheets with guesses at the independent variables, and try to predict the future, let's not obsess too much about the independence and credibility of central banks and put too much of the blame on developing tariff policy. I'm not prepared to argue the tariffs are unimportant. In the short run, they could create some difficult decisions for monetary policy agencies. And beyond tariffs, let’s remember that the collapse of Bretton Woods and the installation of fluctuations exchange rates also did usher in an age of higher inflation. Exchange rate changes, like tariffs, are not formally inflationary but they do change (like tariffs) relative prices. There is more discussion about inflation and exchange rates than about inflation and tariffs mostly because exchange rate fluctuations became more pronounced after 1971 while tariffs were mostly being cut in periodic multilateral rounds until recently. The absence of a literature on tariffs and inflation is an artifact of economic circumstance.

**The road ahead and the traffic around us**
Whatever the ‘threat’ of tariffs, the trends in money supply are more fundamental and certainly something you don't want to lose track of although many people do lose track of money supply these days. Central banks have certainly downgraded money supply. In the U.S., relevant money supply data are released much less frequently and the data we are provided with is much less thorough than it used to be. Central banks want to be known for their interest rate policy and inflation targeting. A strange desire after they have been so unsuccessful at hitting those targets over the past four years… But of course, there are policy tools to focus on: the official interest rate the central bank implements, the guidance it gives us about the future, the way that markets price themselves relative to the central bank rate which affects the way interest rates work their way into the economy… And then, of course, there is the issue of what inflation is, and what it will be, and what assumptions monetary policy makes when it evaluates itself to decide how it's going to be presented to the public by the central bank. All of this leaves a lot of room for discretion and slippage and what monetary policy really is. It puts the central bank in a position to - as always - occupy the bully pulpit and to steer the discussion in the direction they want which inevitably is the direction that justifies the kind of policy they've decided to run. Now is a good time to pull yourself out of that cycle to step back and to look objectively at what's happening with money supply and policy and to think about what happens next. Policy is not completely about politics after all. Tariffs are not the keystone to build an outlook for the future.

Global Money Supply Begins to Show Divergences; Watch the Green Line and Don’t Get Sleepy

250724A12.jpg

250724B12.jpg

Sales of new single-family home sales improved 0.6% (-6.6% y/y) in June to 627,000 (SAAR) after falling 11.6% to an unrevised 623,000 in May, and rising to 705,000 in April, revised from 722,000 according to the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected sales of 650,000 in June. The sales gain occurred as the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage held steady m/m at an average 6.82% in June, according to Freddie Mac. So far in July the 30-year mortgage rate has fallen to an average 6.71% and compares to a low of 6.18% averaged in September of last year.

By region, new home sales varied across the country last month. Sales of new homes in the Midwest rose 6.3% (9.0% y/y) to 85,000, after falling 3.6% during May. In the South, new home sales rebounded 5.1% (-4.4% y/y) to 390,000, following a 15.1% May decline. Offsetting these gains, sales of new homes in the West weakened 8.4% (-14.4% y/y) to 131,000, after declining 8.3% in May. Showing even more weakness, new home sales in the Northeast were off 27.6% last month (-34.4% y/y) to 21,000, after holding steady in May.

The median sales price of a new home declined 4.9% (-2.9% y/y) to $401,800 (NSA) in June after rising 2.3% to $422,700 in May. New home prices were 12.7% below the all-time peak of $460,300 in October 2022. The average sales price of a new home fell 2.1% (+1.1% y/y) to $501,000 in June, following a 0.4% May decline. The average price was 7.4% below a high of $541,200 in July 2022. These sales price data are not seasonally adjusted.

The number of unsold new homes on the market rose 1.2% (8.5% y/y) to 511,000 (SA) in June, after a 1.0% May increase. The seasonally adjusted months' supply of new homes for sale rose to 9.8 months in June, the highest level since September 2022, after increasing to 9.7 months in May. The latest reading remained above a low of 6.9 months in May 2023.

The median number of months a new home stayed on the market increased to 2.8 months in June, remaining above a June 2024 low of 2.1 months. The latest number stood well above its record low of 1.5 months in both September and October of 2022, but remained below a high of 5.1 months in March 2021. These figures date back to January 1975.

New home sales are recorded when the sales contract is signed. New home sales activity and prices are available in Haver's **USECON** database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

250724C12.jpg

250724D12.jpg

- Small gain in sales follows sharp decline.
- Sales are mixed throughout the country.
- Median sales price is lowest since November.

U.S. New Home Sales Improve Slightly in June; Prices Decline Sharply

Winnie Tapasanun

250724J12.jpg

250724K12.jpg

The Kansas City Fed manufacturing composite index inched up to 1 in July from -2 in June and -3 in May, the July 2025 Manufacturing Survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City showed, indicating Tenth District manufacturing activity increased slightly this month. The headline index was last positive in September 2022 (with a reading of 6). The July index was up from -11 in July 2024 but well below a high of 30 in March 2022. “The increase from last month was driven by nondurable manufacturing, while durable manufacturing activity continued to fall,” the Kansas City Fed reported.

The ISM-adjusted index calculated by Haver Analytics rebounded to 50.2 (NSA) in July after a 1.3-point decline to 49.8 in June, indicating expansion in factory activity for the fourth time in five months. The latest ISM-adjusted figure was above a low of 43.7 in July 2024 but well below a record-high 68.9 in March 2022.

In the latest survey, the new orders index rose to 2 in July, the first positive reading and the highest since July 2022, after a seven-point increase to -2 in June. Thirty percent of respondents (NSA) reported orders gains in July while 33% reported declines. The production index, however, fell to -3 this month after a 15-point rebound to 5 in June; these readings were well below a high of 35 in March 2022. The shipments index decreased to 3 in July after an 18-point jump to 8 in June; thus, having remained down from a peak of 39 in March 2022.

The raw materials inventory index rose to 8 in July following a 12-point drop to -9 in June, registering the second positive reading in three months and the highest since September 2022. These figures were above a low of -17 in July 2024 but well below a high of 28 in March 2022. The order backlog index, having remained negative since October 2022, plunged to -30 in July, the lowest reading since September 2024, after a 12-point rebound to -11 in June; these numbers were significantly below a record-high 43 in July 2021. Meanwhile, the supplier delivery time index rose to 7 in July, the highest reading since April, after rising to 5 in June; these readings remained well below a high of 51 in March 2022.

On the labor front, the employment index declined to -11 in July after an 11-point drop to -8 in June, posting the fifth negative reading in six months and the lowest in three months. The index was down from a high of 30 in May 2022. A lessened 13% of respondents (NSA) reported increases in the number of employees in July while a steady 23% reported decreases.

On the pricing front, the prices received index for finished products fell to 18 in July following a four-point increase to 21 in June. These readings, while up from a low of -5 in September 2024, remained well below a high of 50 in June 2022 and a record-high 63 in August 2021. Twenty-one percent of respondents (NSA) reported higher prices received in July while 6% reported price declines. The prices paid index for raw materials fell to 47 this month after a 17-point jump to 51 in June. These figures were up from a low of -1 in October 2023 but significantly down from a high of 72 in April 2022 and a record-high 85 in October 2021.

Expectations for future activity continued to stay positive, with activity in most categories expected to gain. The expectations index for six months ahead was at 8 in July, slightly down from 9 in June and up from 5 in May. The expectations indexes for raw materials inventories (8) and supplier delivery time (5) rose in July, while those for production (14), shipments (11), new orders (8), and employment (4) fell for the month; nevertheless, they remained in positive territory. To the negative side, the expectations indexes for new orders for exports (-8), backlog of orders (-5), and capital expenditures (-4) registered negative readings. The expectations index for raw materials prices held steady at a still-high 64 in July compared to a low of 13 in June 2023; the index for finished goods prices was unchanged at 48 vs. a low of 15 in October 2023.

The latest survey was conducted for a six-day period from July 16-21, 2025 and included 105 responses from plants in Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, Wyoming, northern New Mexico, and western Missouri.

The series dates back to July 2001. The diffusion indexes are calculated as the percentage of total respondents reporting increases minus the percentage reporting declines. The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Data for the Kansas City Fed Survey can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

250724L12.jpg

250724M12.jpg

- July Composite Index at 1 reflects positive numbers in materials inventories (8) and new orders (2), while employment (-11) and production (-3) post negative readings.
- Price growth cools somewhat, w/ prices paid down 4 pts. to 47 and prices received down 3 pts. to 18.
- Expectations for future activity, while edging down to 8, remain in positive territory.

Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index Rises in July; First Positive Reading Since Sept. ’22

250724F0.jpg

250724G0.jpg

The National Activity Index (CFNAI), reported by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, stood at -0.10 in June following a reading of -0.16 in May, revised from -0.28, and -0.41 in April, revised from -0.36.

The index's three-month moving average, which smooths out the m/m volatility in the index, fell to -0.22 last month from -0.14 in May. This reading compares to its zero value, which equals trend real GDP growth. Research at the Chicago Fed indicates that an average reading of -0.70 or below is consistent with the economy being in a recession.

The June reading reflected a negative contribution from each of the four component series. The Production & Income index of -0.01 compared to -0.06 in May and -0.19 in April. The Personal Consumption & Housing contribution of -0.01 in June compared to -0.10 in May and -0.02 in April. The Sales, Orders & Inventories index series of -0.04 in June compared to +0.01 in May and -0.18 in April. The Employment, Unemployment & Hours index weakened to -0.05 last month after contributing -0.01 in May and -0.02 in April.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which measures the breadth of change in the component series and is also a three-month moving average, stood at -0.37 in June compared to -0.32 in May and -0.08 in April. A reading of zero indicates that all of the indicators are growing at their long-term average. Thirty-seven of the 85 individual data series made positive contributions to the total index in June while 48 contributed negatively.

The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth rate over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.

These figures are available in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

- Latest reading improves versus May.
- Each of four components are negative.
- Three-month trend weakens.

Economy in Brief: 2018

Jump to:

U.S. Housing Starts Recover to 11-Year High

Japan's Loses Its Trade Surplus

U.S. Home Builder Index Backpedals

Empire State Manufacturing Index Continues to Strengthen

U.S. Industrial Production Slips Unexpectedly

EMU Trade Deficit Shrinks

Empire State Manufacturing Index Continues to Strengthen

Petroleum Drives Gains in U.S. Import and Export Prices