Global| Jun 18 2018U.S. Home Builder Index Backpedals
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo fell 2.9% (+3.0% y/y) to 68 during June and retraced its May increase to 70. The latest reading compared to expectations for 70 in the [...]
The Composite Housing Market Index from the National Association of Home Builders-Wells Fargo fell 2.9% (+3.0% y/y) to 68 during June and retraced its May increase to 70. The latest reading compared to expectations for 70 in the Informa Global Markets Survey. The NAHB figures are seasonally adjusted. During the last ten years, there has been a 57% correlation between the y/y change in the home builders index and the y/y change in new home sales.
The index of present sales conditions in the housing market eased 1.3% (+4.2% y/y) to 75 and remained below its December high of 80. The index for conditions in the next six months slipped to 76 (+1.3% y/y), the lowest level since November.
Home builders reported that the traffic of prospective buyers index slipped m/m to 50 and was down from its December high of 58.
Amongst the regional indexes, the index for the Midwest fell 4.5% (-5.9% y/y) to 64 and was down versus the December high of 76. The index for the South declined 2.8% (+1.5% y/y) to 69 and was down from the high of 75 six months ago. Countering these declines was an 8.9% rise (32.6% y/y) in the index for the Northeast to 61. Its level equaled the highest point since December 2005. The reading for the West improved 1.3% (7.0% y/y) to 76 and made up its May decline.
The NAHB has compiled the Housing Market Index since 1985. It reflects survey questions asking builders to rate market conditions as "good," "fair," "poor" or "very high" to "very low." The figure is thus a diffusion index with numerical results six over 50 indicating a predominance of "good" readings. The weights assigned to the individual index components are .5920 for single-family detached sales, present time, .1358 for single-family detached sales, next months and .2722 for traffic of prospective buyers. The results are included in Haver's SURVEYS database. The expectations figure is available in Haver's MMSAMER database.
Some Industries Encountering Worker Shortages from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta is available here.
| National Association of Home Builders | Jun | May | Apr | Jun '17 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Housing Market Index, SA (All Good=100) | 68 | 70 | 68 | 66 | 68 | 61 | 59 |
| Single-Family Sales: Present | 75 | 76 | 74 | 72 | 74 | 67 | 64 |
| Single-Family Sales: Next Six Months | 76 | 77 | 77 | 75 | 76 | 67 | 66 |
| Traffic of Prospective Buyers | 50 | 51 | 49 | 51 | 50 | 45 | 43 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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