Economy in Brief: 2019

The manufacturing PMIs show a great deal of weakness. The quarterly data show clear weakness as the percentage of countries with diffusion readings improving (momentum improving…) is 26% or less over three months, six months and 12 [...]

Building sector activity continues to weaken. The value of construction put-in-place fell 1.3% (-2.0% y/y) during June following a 0.5% May decline, revised from -0.8. A 0.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast [...]

The ISM manufacturing index slipped to 51.2 during July from 51.7 in June. It was the lowest level since August 2016 and was below the expansion peak of 60.8 last August. The Action Economics Forecast Survey anticipated a reading of [...]

Initial claims jobless insurance rose to 215,000 during the week ended July 27 and made up most of the prior week's decline to 207,000, revised from 206,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 214,000 initial claims. The [...]

The employment cost index (ECI) for civilian workers rose 0.6% q/q in 2019 Q1, down slightly from a 0.7% quarterly rise in Q1. This was the slowest pace of compensation gains since 2017 Q4. The increase was slightly below expectations [...]

The Federal Reserve lowered the target for the Fed Funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 2.00% to 2.25%. The cut followed nine increases from a low just above zero at the end of 2015. The action was expected in the Action [...]

Euro area GDP slowed in Q2 to a Q/Q pace of less than 1%. Year-over-year growth in the EMU, at 1.1%, is the weakest since Q4 2013. And EMU inflation in July is the lowest it has been year-over-year since late-2016. This combination is [...]

The Chicago Business Barometer fell to 44.4 during July from an unrevised 49.7 in June. It was the lowest reading since December 2015. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of 51.3. The Chicago Purchasing Managers [...]