Economy in Brief: 2019

The Chicago Business Barometer fell to 44.4 during July from an unrevised 49.7 in June. It was the lowest reading since December 2015. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of 51.3. The Chicago Purchasing Managers [...]

Hiring in the private sector continued its recent upward trend this month. The ADP National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payrolls increased 156,000 (1.7% y/y) during July following a 112,000 June rise, revised from [...]

The employment cost index (ECI) for civilian workers rose 0.6% q/q in 2019 Q2, down slightly from a 0.7% quarterly rise in Q1. This was the slowest pace of compensation gains since 2017 Q4. The increase was slightly below expectations [...]

The pump price for a gallon of regular gasoline in the U.S. fell again in the week ended July 29 to $2.72 (-4.6% y/y) from $2.75 the previous week. This is the lowest price in five weeks. Haver Analytics calculates a series which is [...]

German confidence slipped lower for the third month in a row, continuing a run of weakening that began after February 2018 and despite a failed attempt at rebounding in February 2019. There is an expedited trail of decay since March [...]

The Conference Board reported that its Consumer Confidence Index jumped 9.2% (6.1% y/y) to 135.7 during July and reversed its 5.3% June decline. It was the highest level since November. An increase to 125.0 had been expected in the [...]

Personal income increased 0.4% (4.9% y/y) during June for the fourth consecutive month. May was revised from 0.5%. A 0.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Revisions indicate more income growth in 2018 [...]

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales rose a larger-than-expected 2.8% m/m in June (+1.6% y/y) on top of a 1.1% m/m gain in May. This was the highest reading for the index since December 2017. [...]