Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040825a.jpg" width="353">
A 37.2% m/m surge in orders for aircraft raised durable goods orders in July by 1.7% versus Consensus expectations for a 1.0% rise. Less aircraft durable orders fell 0.5% (+8.3% y/y), the third m/m decline in the last four.
The rise in new aircraft orders was powered by a doubling of orders for commercial aircraft that offset a one-third drop in defense aircraft bookings.
Higher aircraft orders raised the nondefense capital goods total by 9.0%, but less aircraft capital goods orders rose just 0.6% (11.0% y/y).
Orders for computers &amp; electronic products fell 3.8% (+2.0% y/y), the third m/m decline in the last four. Computer orders fell 6.7% (-0.6% y/y) though a 5.0% rise in electrical equipment, appliance &amp; component orders recouped half of the prior two months&#39; decline. Machinery orders added 2.1% (18.0% y/y) to a 1.1% rise in June.
During the last ten years there has been a 58% correlation between the y/y change in durable goods orders and the orders component of the Philadelphia Federal Reserve&#39;s Business Outlook Survey. That correlation rose to 72% during the last five years.
Shipments of durable goods rose 0.1% (8.3% y/y) after a 1.1% June gain. Shipments excluding the transportation sector rose 1.7% (+12.6% y/y) after a 1.2% spurt in June.
Durable inventories rose 0.8% (3.4% y/y) for the third straight month.
New research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York titled &quot;The Relationship between Manufacturing Production and Goods Output&quot; is available <a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/current_issues/ci10-9.html"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED01/@ED0101/@ED0101.HTM"> NAICS Classification</a></th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Durable Goods Orders</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>11.7%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
<td>-10.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Non-defense Capital Goods</td>
<td>9.0%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>19.4%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>-7.2%</td>
<td>-15.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
New Home Sales Weaken 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> August 25, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040825c.jpg" width="353">
Sales of new one-family homes fell a sharp 6.4% in July to 1.134M, the lowest level since last December. Sales in June were revised down sharply to 1.211M from the initial report of 1.326M. Consensus estimates had been for sales of 1.300M. 
Sales fell hard in the Northeast by 23.5% (-19.5% y/y) and in the South by 15.9% (-5.9% y/y). In the West sales slipped 1.7% (-4.0% y/y) for the third decline in the last four months. Sales in the Midwest rose a solid 21.5% (17.1% y/y).
The median price of a new single family home fell 2.6% to $207,400 (9.0% y/y), 5.6% below the February peak of $219,600.
During testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, Fed Chairman Greenspan indicated in response to a question about soaring house prices, &quot;This observation raises the possibility that real estate prices, at least in some markets, could be out of alignment with the fundamentals.&quot; The complete Monetary Report to Congress is available <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/HH/2004/July/testimony.htm"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E904/@E90401/@E90401.HTM"> Homes Sales (000s, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">New Single-Family</td>
<td>1,134</td>
<td>1,211</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>1,089</td>
<td>976</td>
<td>907</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Mortgage Applications Down 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> August 25, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040825b.jpg" width="353">
The index of mortgage applications compiled by the Mortgage Bankers Association fell 6.3% last week but during the prior period applications were up 11.9% due to a surge in refinancings.
Purchase applications fell 5.0% last week and so far this month are 2.4% below July.
During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing home sales.
Applications to refinance mortgages slipped 8.0% following the prior week&#39;s surge. Refi&#39;s so far in August are 9.0% ahead of July which rose 17.3% versus June.
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-Year mortgage was stable at 6.05%, the average for August so far. That is down from 6.24% averaged last month and the high of 6.53% in May. The effective rate on a 15-year mortgage also was about stable at 5.47% versus 5.69% last month.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org"> here</a>.

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<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM"> MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">08/20/04</th>
<th scope="col">08/13/04</th>
<th scope="col"> Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>646.3</td>
<td>689.4</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
<td>799.7</td>
<td>625.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>443.7</td>
<td>467.1</td>
<td>18.2%</td>
<td>395.1</td>
<td>354.7</td>
<td>304.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>1,824.9</td>
<td>1,982.7</td>
<td>-15.9%</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
<td>3,388.0</td>
<td>2,491.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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A 37.2% m/m surge in orders for aircraft raised durable goods orders in July by 1.7% versus Consensus expectations for a 1.0% rise. Less aircraft durable orders fell 0.5% (+8.3% y/y), the third m/m decline in the last four. The rise [...]

Surge In Aircraft Lifts U.S. Durable Goods Orders

Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040824c.jpg" width="353">
The final report on Germany&#39;s second quarter GDP, confirmed the preliminary estimate of a 0.5% increase from the first to the second quarter. The chief source of growth came from exports, which increased 3.19% from the first to the second quarter and 12.16% from the second quarter of 2003. Imports rose less than exports, and net exports rose 2.65%. Domestic demand remained sluggish. Consumer demand was essentially flat and total business investment declined by about 1% in the second quarter from the first.
Forward looking indicators, like new orders and business sentiment, suggest that activity in the third quarter is likely to continue muted. While the volume of seasonally adjusted new orders showed an increase for the second quarter, the June figure, published today, was down 3.44% from May. The most recent IFO index of expectations of the business climate in the next six months was up slightly in July, but the optimists among the institutional investors and analysts poled in the Zew indicator were fewer in August.
Part of the sluggishness in domestic demand in Germany may be the result of uncertainty engendered by the sweeping labor and welfare reforms posed by Agenda 2010 and the Hartz IV Laws, which were introduced in 2002, and the Rurup Commission appointed earlier this year to devise a plan to save the pension system threatened with collapse by the aging of the population.
In September, 2002, the Bundestag passed laws reducing monthly premium payments for the national health care system and reduced to 12 months the maximum duration a person can receive unemployment benefits after losing a job and made it easier for companies to hire and fire employees. The most contentious reforms--the Hartz IV Law--calling for the merger of unemployment and welfare benefits and provisions of the Rurup Commission to raise the age of retirement from 65 to 67 years of age and reduce pension levels from 48% to 40.1% of a recipient&#39;s former income have yet to be passed. Popular discontent over the reforms is rising, particularly in East Germany where unemployment rates and the numbers of long term unemployed remain high. August 23rd marked the fifth Monday of large scale demonstrations in East Germany against the reforms.
While the long term implications of the reforms are positive for the growth of the German economy, the implementation of the reforms in the short term are likely to be disruptive.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Germany</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Gross Domestic Product (Bil. euros)</td>
<td>Q2 04</td>
<td>&nbsp; Q1 04</td>
<td>&nbsp; Q2 03</td>
<td>Q/Q %</td>
<td>&nbsp;Y/Y %</td>
<td>2003 %</td>
<td>&nbsp; 2002 %</td>
<td>&nbsp; 2001 %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total GDP</td>
<td>502.96</td>
<td>500.58</td>
<td>495.58</td>
<td>0.48</td>
<td>1.49</td>
<td>-0.14</td>
<td>0.12</td>
<td>0.99</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Consumption</td>
<td>379.43</td>
<td>378.51</td>
<td>381.68</td>
<td>0.14</td>
<td>-0.59</td>
<td>0.00</td>
<td>--0.05</td>
<td>1.60</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Investment</td>
<td>92.03</td>
<td>92.80</td>
<td>92.91</td>
<td>-0.85</td>
<td>-0.95</td>
<td>2.49</td>
<td>-8.93</td>
<td>-8.39</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Net Exports</td>
<td>31.50</td>
<td>28.85</td>
<td>20.99</td>
<td>2.65</td>
<td>10.51</td>
<td>-11.84</td>
<td>38.71</td>
<td>31.90</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Exports</td>
<td>202.60</td>
<td>196.34</td>
<td>180.64</td>
<td>3.19</td>
<td>12.16</td>
<td>1.75</td>
<td>4.10</td>
<td>6.12</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Imports</td>
<td>171.10</td>
<td>167.45</td>
<td>159.65</td>
<td>2.16</td>
<td>7.17</td>
<td>&nbsp;3.94</td>
<td>-1.57</td>
<td>1.35</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rates</td>
<td>Jul 04</td>
<td>Jun 04</td>
<td>Jul 03</td>
<td>M/M&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
<td>Y/Y&nbsp;</td>
<td>2003&nbsp;%</td>
<td>2002 %</td>
<td>&nbsp;2001 %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;West Germany</td>
<td>8.5</td>
<td>8.4</td>
<td>8.4</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>8.4</td>
<td>7.7</td>
<td>7.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;East Germany</td>
<td>18.5</td>
<td>18.5</td>
<td>18.6</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>-1.0</td>
<td>18.5</td>
<td>17.7</td>
<td>17.3</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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The final report on Germany's second quarter GDP, confirmed the preliminary estimate of a 0.5% increase from the first to the second quarter. The chief source of growth came from exports, which increased 3.19% from the first to the [...]

Are Welfare and Labor Reforms Affecting Domestic Demand in Germany?

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040824a.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales recovered just 0.1% last week of a 0.6% decline in sales the week prior according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS.
The lackluster performance left sales so far in August 0.1% above the July average which rose 0.3% versus June.
During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"> <a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM"> ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">08/21/04</th>
<th scope="col">08/14/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>439.3</td>
<td>438.8</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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Chain store sales recovered just 0.1% last week of a 0.6% decline in sales the week prior according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS. The lackluster performance left sales so far in August 0.1% above the [...]

U.S. Chain Store Sales Soft

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040824b.jpg" width="353">
Existing single family home sales fell 2.9% in July to 6.72M. The record high in June was revised slightly lower. Consensus expectations had been for a lesser decline to 6.80M.
The figures reflect closings of home sales in earlier months.
Sales fell across the nation except in the South where they rose modestly to a record high.
The median price of an existing home rose a slight 0.2% m/m to $191,300 (+8.7% y/y).
The latest release from the National Association of Realtors is available <a href="http://www.realtor.org/publicaffairsweb.nsf/Pages/JulyEHS04?OpenDocument"> here</a>.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E905/@E90501/@E90501.HTM"> Existing Home Sales (000, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Existing Single-Family</td>
<td>&nbsp;6,720</td>
<td>&nbsp;6,920</td>
<td>8.6%</td>
<td>6,111</td>
<td>5,583</td>
<td>5,290</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Existing single family home sales fell 2.9% in July to 6.72M. The record high in June was revised slightly lower. Consensus expectations had been for a lesser decline to 6.80M. The figures reflect closings of home sales in earlier [...]

U.S. Existing Home Sales Down

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040824b.jpg" width="353">
Existing single family home sales fell 2.9% in July to 6.72M. The record high in June was revised slightly lower. Consensus expectations had been for a lesser decline to 6.80M.
The figures reflect closings of home sales in earlier months.
Sales fell across the nation except in the South where they rose modestly to a record high.
The median price of an existing home rose a slight 0.2% m/m to $191,300 (+8.7% y/y).
The latest release from the National Association of Realtors is available <a href="http://www.realtor.org/publicaffairsweb.nsf/Pages/JulyEHS04?OpenDocument"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E905/@E90501/@E90501.HTM"> Existing Home Sales (000, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Existing Single-Family</td>
<td>&nbsp;6,720</td>
<td>&nbsp;6,920</td>
<td>8.6%</td>
<td>6,111</td>
<td>5,583</td>
<td>5,290</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Chain Store Sales Soft 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> August 24, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040824a.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales recovered just 0.1% last week of a 0.6% decline in sales the week prior according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS.
The lackluster performance left sales so far in August 0.1% above the July average which rose 0.3% versus June.
During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"> <a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM"> ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">08/21/04</th>
<th scope="col">08/14/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>439.3</td>
<td>438.8</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
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</tbody>
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Existing Home Sales Down

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040823b.jpg" width="353">
Signs are increasing that the deflation is finally coming to an end in Hong Kong. Consumer prices in July were 0.88% above the year ago figure. This was the first increase since October of 1998. Prices in Hong Kong have fallen ever since the 1997-98 Asian financial crisis which led to a severe recession and collapse of the property market. Deflation was aggravated last year by the SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) outbreak. A low point of 91.0 (October 1999-September 2000 = 100) in the Consumer Price Index was reached in August, 2003.
Price decreases began to decelerate earlier this year as the employment picture improved. The unemployment rate for the three months ending in July was steady at 6.9%, unchanged from the three months rate ending in June. but was 1.7 percentage points below the figure a year ago. Moreover, the three month average of employment ending in July was 0.79% above that ending in June and 2.64% above the year ago figure. Retail sales were down almost one percent in the second quarter of this year from the first quarter but were up almost 19% over the second quarter of last year..
The decline in the unemployment rate and the rise in employment has led to some improvement in demand on the part of domestic consumers, but the big increase in demand has come from the increase in tourism. Tourist arrivals increased 2.88% in the second quarter from the first and 208.44% from the SARS affected first quarter of 2003. Tourist arrivals in the first half of this year were over 10 million, compared with the city&#39;s population of 6.8 million.
While some of the increase in July prices may have been due to cost pressures with the rise in oil prices, the evidence suggests that rising demand is beginning to put pressure on prices and an end to deflation is in sight.

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</table>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Jul 04</th>
<th scope="col">Jun 04</th>
<th scope="col">Jul 03</th>
<th scope="col">M/M&nbsp;%</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y%&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2003 %</th>
<th scope="col">2002 %</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2001%</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">CPI (NSA, Oct99-Sep00=100)</td>
<td>91.9</td>
<td>91.8</td>
<td>91.1</td>
<td>0.11</td>
<td>0.88</td>
<td>-2.58</td>
<td>-3.04</td>
<td>-1.60</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Employment (NSA thous,3-month moving average ending)</td>
<td>3282.5</td>
<td>3256.9</td>
<td>3198.1</td>
<td>0.79</td>
<td>2.64</td>
<td>-0.34</td>
<td>-0.64</td>
<td>1.40</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate (NSA, %, 3-month moving average ending)</td>
<td>6.9</td>
<td>6.9</td>
<td>8.6</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>-1.7</td>
<td>8.0</td>
<td>7.3</td>
<td>5.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>Q2 04</td>
<td>&nbsp; Q1 03</td>
<td>&nbsp; Q2 03</td>
<td>Q/Q %</td>
<td>&nbsp;Y/Y %</td>
<td>2003 %</td>
<td>&nbsp;2002%</td>
<td>&nbsp; 2001%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Retail Sales (NSA, Oct99-Sep00=100)</td>
<td>102.4</td>
<td>103.2</td>
<td>86.1</td>
<td>-0.78</td>
<td>18.89</td>
<td>-2.26</td>
<td>-4.08</td>
<td>-1.23</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Tourist Arrivals (NSA Thous.)</td>
<td>5077.4</td>
<td>4935.2</td>
<td>1646.2</td>
<td>2.88</td>
<td>208.44</td>
<td>&nbsp;-6.21</td>
<td>20.70</td>
<td>5.10</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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Signs are increasing that the deflation is finally coming to an end in Hong Kong. Consumer prices in July were 0.88% above the year ago figure. This was the first increase since October of 1998. Prices in Hong Kong have fallen ever [...]

Deflation in Hong Kong Coming to an End?

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/040823a.jpg" width="353">
Though the Weekly Leading Index of the US economy published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) ticked 0.2% higher in the latest week, its growth rate slowed to 0.0% versus double digit rates of growth into this past Spring.
The weekly rise was due to higher mortgage applications and lower jobless claims which offset a lower money supply, but the trend in mortgage apps and money growth has been soft.
During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the six-month growth in the ECRI leading index of the US economy and two quarter growth in real GDP.
Construction of the ECRI Leading Index differs from the Index of Leading Economic Indicators published by the Conference Board. There has been a 70% correlation between the y/y percent change in the two series over the last 10 years.
The components of the ECRI weekly leading index are money supply plus stock &amp; bond mutual funds, the JOC-ECRI industrial materials price index, mortgage applications, bond quality spreads, stock prices, bond yields, and initial jobless insurance claims.
The median lead of the ECRI index at business cycle peaks has been 10.5 months and at cycle troughs 3.0 months.
For more on ECRI and the Weekly Leading Index go to this <a href="http://businesscycle.com">link</a>.

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<thead>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"> <a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/weekly/@W8/@W801/@W801.HTM"> ECRI Leading Index</a></th>
<th scope="col"> 08/13/04</th>
<th scope="col"> 08/06/04</th>
<th scope="col"> Growth Rate</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col"> 2002</th>
<th scope="col"> 2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Weekly</td>
<td>131.7</td>
<td>131.4</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>-5.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td> July</td>
<td> June</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Monthly</td>
<td>131.7</td>
<td>132.0</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
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Though the Weekly Leading Index of the US economy published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) ticked 0.2% higher in the latest week, its growth rate slowed to 0.0% versus double digit rates of growth into this past [...]

ECRI U.S. Leading Indicators Soft

ECRI Leading Indicators Soft

Reaccelerating goods price inflation along with sticky services inflation clouds the outlook

Falling oil prices aren't pulling down inflation expectations, pointing to a boost from increased tariffs

Equity market exuberance outpacing macroeconomic data

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters expect further sizable monetary easing

US production rebounded in Q2, but demand continued to slow

US leader, Germany trailer for real GDP growth over past 3 years

Negative US inflation surprises leading G10 down

Deflation continues in China

Incoming data surprising on downside in US; positive surprises elsewhere

FOMC expects more inflation and less growth than in March

With escalation of Israel/Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has recently surged while US trade policy uncertainty has ebbed

Renewed supply chain pressures point to a rebound in global inflation ahead

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary policy easing

Apart from the US, productivity is moribund

Financial market concerns ebb even though policy uncertainty continues to soar

US tariff revenues nearly doubled in April

Even with expected tariff-induced increases in inflation, BCFF forecasters look for a more aggressive round of monetary easing

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

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The **PCE chain price index** increased 0.2% (2.6% y/y) after rising an unrevised 0.3% in June and an unrevised 0.2% in May. The y/y gain steadied at 2.6%. It was increased from 2.2% y/y in April. Energy prices fell 1.1% (-2.7% y/y) after rising 0.9%, while food & beverage prices eased 0.1% (+1.9% y/y) following a 0.3% rise. The price index excluding food & energy rose a steady 0.3%, after two straight 0.2% increases. The y/y gain edged up to 2.9% last month from 2.8% in June. It was increased from a low of 2.6% in April.

Durable goods prices eased 0.1% (+1.1% y/y) in July, after rising 0.5% in June. Home furnishings & appliance prices edged 0.1% higher (2.5% y/y), after increasing 1.3%. Recreational goods & vehicle costs declined 0.9% (-0.3% y/y) and reversed the 0.9% June strengthening. Motor vehicle & parts prices rose 0.2% (1.6% y/y), after a 0.4% June decline.

Prices of nondurable goods eased 0.1% (+0.2% y/y) last month after rising 0.4% in June. Clothing prices held steady both m/m and y/y after rising 0.3% in June. Food & beverage prices eased 0.1% (+1.9% y/y), following a 0.4% June increase. Gasoline & other energy prices fell 1.7% (-9.6% y/y), after rising 0.9% in June.

Services prices in July rose 0.3% (3.6% y/y), after four straight 0.2% increases. Housing & utility prices rose 0.2% (4.3% y/y), after two consecutive 0.3% increases, and services prices excluding energy & healthcare gained 0.4% (3.7% y/y) after two 0.2% gains. Healthcare prices rose 0.2% (2.7% y/y), after rising 0.4%. The cost of financial services & insurance jumped 1.2% (5.5% y/y) after rising 0.4% in June. Recreation services costs rose 0.3% (3.2% y/y) after rising 0.1%. Transportation prices gained 0.2% (4.4% y/y), following a 0.1% rise, while hotel & restaurant prices improved 0.1% (2.8% y/y) after a slight June decline.

**Personal consumption expenditures (PCE)** rose 0.5% (4.7% y/y) last month after increasing 0.4% in June, revised from 0.3%, after holding steady in May. The July rise matched expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. When adjusted for price changes, PCE improved 0.3% in July (2.1% y/y) after rising 0.1% in June.

Real spending on durable goods increased 2.0% (3.2% y/y) in July, after falling for three straight months. Real spending on motor vehicles jumped 4.5% (3.5% y/y), after falling sharply in both June and May. Real outlays on furnishings & appliances improved 0.2% (0.9% y/y), after falling in each of the prior month. Real spending on recreational goods & vehicles increased 1.5% (4.9% y/y) last month, after falling 0.4% in June. Spending on “other” durable goods improved 0.4% (2.6% y/y) after rising 0.2% in June.

Nondurable goods spending in real terms rose 0.3% (2.7% y/y) in July after gaining 0.6% in June. Real clothing & footwear purchases rose 0.6% (4.9% y/y) last month, following a 0.5% rise during June. Real food & beverage purchases strengthened 0.7% (1.7% y/y) after rising 0.4%. Real outlays on gasoline & other energy products fell 1.3% (-1.5% y/y), after rising 1.5%. Real spending on “other” nondurable goods edged 0.1% higher (4.1% y/y) last month, following a 0.6% rise in June.

Real spending on services improved 0.1% (1.7% y/y) in July for the second straight month. Real spending on housing & utilities rose 0.1% (1.1% y/y) in July, for a second consecutive month, while real health care spending also rose 0.1% (3.9% y/y) after rising 0.2%. Real spending on food services & accommodations eased 0.2% (+1.7% y/y), after rising 0.4% in June. Real spending on financial services & insurance rose 0.2% (2.4% y/y) after increasing 0.4% in June. Real spending on transportation services rose 0.3% (-0.0% y/y) in July, after falling 0.6% in June. Recreation spending slipped 0.1% (+1.0% y/y), the same as in June. Spending on “other” services rose 0.3% (2.7% y/y) for the second straight month.

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**Personal income** rose 0.4% last month (5.0% y/y) after increasing 0.3% in June. A 0.5% gain was expected. Wages & salaries moved 0.6% higher (5.3% y/y), following a 0.1% increase during June. Rental income increased 0.5% (4.0% y/y) in July, after falling for three straight months. Proprietors’ income improved 0.7% (2.3% y/y), after a minimal 0.1% increase. Income from assets rose 0.1% (1.4% y/y), after holding steady in June, and current transfer receipts were unchanged (8.3% y/y) following a 1.1% June increase.

Disposable personal income increased 0.4% (4.6% y/y) during July following a 0.3% June rise. After adjusting for price changes, disposable income improved 0.2% (2.0% y/y) after holding steady in June.

The personal saving rate held steady in July at 4.4%, after falling from 5.0% in April. It still stands well above low of 3.5% in December of last year. Personal saving fell 1.7% (+5.8% y/y) in July, after declining 0.9% in June.

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

**Let’s Get On with It** from Fed Governor Christopher J. Waller is available [here](https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/waller20250828a.htm).

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- Core price increase y/y matches highest since February.
- Real spending moderation centers on services.
- Real disposable income improves; personal savings rate steadies.

U.S. Core PCE Price Inflation Up in July; Real Spending Slows Y/Y 

Winnie Tapasanun

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The advance estimate of the U.S. international trade deficit in goods widened to a larger-than-expected $103.57 billion in July after narrowing to $84.85 billion in June, data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. The July reading, the second widening in the goods trade deficit in three months, was slightly smaller than a $103.92 billion shortfall in July 2024. A deficit of $90.2 billion for July had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The deficit reached a record $161.95 billion in March. In Q2'25, the goods trade deficit narrowed to $266.96 billion, the smallest since Q4'23, after ballooning to a record $465.035 billion in Q1'25; the monthly deficit averaged $88.99 billion in Q2'25, down from a record $155.01 billion in Q1'25.

Total goods exports dipped 0.1% m/m (+3.0% y/y), the third consecutive monthly decline, to $177.97 billion in July, the lowest level since January, after a 0.7% decrease to $178.08 billion in June. April registered a record high of $190.08 billion. Exports were up 9.6% from a June 2023 low but down 2.1% from a July 2022 high. The m/m decline in exports in July reflected exports m/m drops of 2.4% (+16.3% y/y) in other goods, 0.9% (+5.1% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos, and 0.8% (-1.2% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials. To the upside, exports for the following end-use categories rose m/m in July: automotive vehicles & parts (2.2%; -4.0% y/y), capital goods excluding autos (0.7%; 7.0% y/y), and foods, feeds & beverages (0.5%; 1.4% y/y).

Total goods imports rebounded 7.1% m/m (1.7% y/y), the first monthly increase since March, to a four-month-high $281.54 billion in July following a 4.6% drop to $262.94 billion in June. March registered a record high of $344.59 billion. Imports were up 11.9% from a June 2023 low but down 2.6% from a March 2022 high. The m/m rebound in imports in July reflected m/m rises in most imports end-use categories. These included a 25.4% surge (the first m/m increase and the largest since January; 4.9% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials as well as rises of 11.5% (23.5% y/y) in other goods, 4.8% (14.7% y/y) in capital goods excluding autos, 2.4% (4.9% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages, and 2.1% (-12.2% y/y) in nonfood consumer goods excluding autos. In contrast, imports of automotive vehicles & parts, the only end-use category with a monthly decline in July, fell 3.2% (-14.1% y/y), the third m/m fall in four months, on top of a 3.6% June decrease.

The advance international trade data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectation figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is in **AS1REPNA**.

- Deficit: $103.57 bil. in July, jumping 22.1% from June’s $84.85 bil.
- Exports -0.1%, down for the third straight month, led by a 2.4% decline in exports of other goods.
- Imports +7.1%, up for the first time since March, led by a 25.4% surge in imports of industrial supplies & materials.

U.S. Goods Trade Deficit Balloons in July; Largest Since March’s Record High

Robert Brusca

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Inflation in the monetary union was tepid across the large, early-reporting, economies in August. The HICP rose by 0.2% on the month in Germany, rose by 0.1% in France, while it was flat in both Italy and Spain. However, these outstanding readings followed several months of stronger inflation; in particular in July German prices rose by 0.2%, in Italy the gauge rose by 0.3%, in France by 0.4%, and in Spain by 0.5%.

As a result, over three months, inflation is running hot on the headline gauge, over 2% in France, Italy, and Spain, and just below it, at a 1.8% annual rate in Germany. Over 12 months, inflation is well behaved, but that headline is up 0.8% in France, rises by 1.7% over 12 months in Italy, by 2.1% in Germany, and at a 2.6% pace in Spain. That is a bit more mixed but still quite solid set of results. The EMU-wide HICP for July – on a one-month lag- rises by 2.1% over 12 months with a core at 2.3%.

Core inflation is not well reported on an early basis. The Italian core rate rose 0.2% in August with Spain at 0.3%; both Italy and Spain logged increases of 0.3% in July and in June and as a result the 3-month inflation rate on the core for Italy and Spain runs at 2.7% in Italy and at 3.8% for Spain. These, of course, are much higher and more disturbing numbers for inflation. The 6-month inflation rate for core Italy and Spain runs at 2.9% and 3.1%, respectively, while over 12 months the Italian core is up by only 2.1% and the Spanish core is up by only 2.4%. The kick up and inflation for the core is a relatively recent phenomenon.

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These statistics give the ECB some room and some time to maneuver, since headline inflation is in pretty good shape and the inflation issues are scattered and have emerged more recently from the core and with growth still weak and with rising unemployment in Germany where it just topped 3 million for the first time in a decade. There may not be any impetus to have to raise rates to cool inflation. The European Central Bank, like the Federal Reserve, is likely playing a watch and wait game with the economic statistics, and this month the watch and wait game turned pretty much in its favor with very good headline figures although still having some difficult core figures. It will take a little time before we get the core numbers for the rest of the monetary union members to fill in to understand exactly where those trends sit.

However, based on the early returns, the ECB is probably relatively happy with how inflation is sitting even with the core rates slightly excessive and varied. There doesn't appear to be any burgeoning inflation problem; there's some kind of a modest core inflation issue building in Italy and Spain and we'll have to watch that in the coming months. For now, the ECB should be relatively content.

Europe

EMU Large Country Inflation Runs Cold – Over Tepid Cores

Andrew Cates

**The US labour market**
The latest data highlight a growing sense of fragility in the US labour market. The unemployment rate, while still relatively low by historical standards, has been edging higher through the course of this year. More telling, however, is the signal from this week’s consumer confidence survey from Conference Board and specifically the labour market differential — the gap between the share of consumers saying jobs are plentiful versus those saying jobs are hard to get. That balance has narrowed sharply, moving back toward levels historically associated with softer labour demand and rising unemployment.

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**Goods and services inflation** 
Haver’s breakdown of goods and services CPI inflation in the advanced economies highlights where fresh risks are emerging. Goods inflation, which had been receding sharply after the pandemic supply shocks, has recently shown signs of firming again. Some of this probably reflects the impact of US tariff policies, which are raising import costs and putting renewed upward pressure on traded goods prices. While services inflation remains the more stubborn component in most advanced economies, the risk is that tariffs could reintroduce stickiness into goods prices, slowing the overall disinflation process.

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**China, Europe and US trade policy**
A consequence of US tariff policies has been a sharp contraction in Chinese exports to the US market, with much of the surplus redirected elsewhere. Europe in particular has recorded near double-digit import growth in recent months, raising concerns that Beijing is deflecting its industrial overcapacity problem rather than resolving it, effectively transferring the pressure onto trading partners. China’s authorities, however, have begun to push back, introducing measures to curb excess supply and rein in so-called “involution,” including clampdowns on price wars across several industries.

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**China’s excess capacity and Europe**
A closer look at Europe–China trade shows that electric vehicles remain a key flashpoint. Import volumes from China have continued to rise even as per-unit prices fall sharply from a year ago —evidence suggesting that industrial overcapacity persists, with low-cost Chinese EVs increasingly challenging European automakers. The surge has carried on despite EU tariffs of up to 45% on battery EVs, as Chinese producers have adapted by pushing plug-in hybrids and expanding onshore production in Europe to bypass duties and defend market share.

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**Wage growth in the US and Europe** 
Turning back to inflation dynamics, the UK stands out for its persistent wage pressures. While posted wage growth has cooled across the US and euro area, the UK measure has remained elevated at around 6% year-on-year, well above pre-pandemic norms. This stickiness reflects a still-tight labour market in key service sectors, even as broader activity has slowed and unemployment has edged higher. For the Bank of England, it underscores the dilemma: headline inflation is easing, but underlying pay growth risks keeping services inflation uncomfortably high, complicating the timing and scale of policy easing.

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**The UK economy**
The UK’s net international investment position has deteriorated noticeably in recent years, with both direct investment and portfolio flows showing persistent weakness. The latest data underline how net FDI has turned increasingly negative, while the portfolio investment balance has also eroded, leaving the UK more reliant on volatile short-term funding sources. This deterioration comes against a backdrop of heightened investor unease about the riskiness of UK debt markets, where elevated gilt yields and rising debt-servicing costs have amplified concerns over fiscal sustainability. Taken together, these trends underscore the vulnerability of the UK’s external position at a time when global capital is arguably proving more selective and risk sensitive.

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Global markets have continued to rally into late summer, buoyed by AI optimism, dovish signals from central bankers at Jackson Hole, and expectations of easier policy ahead. Yet beneath the surface, risks to the world economy are accumulating. In the US, labour market indicators point to softening conditions (chart 1), while tariff-driven pressures are beginning to push goods prices higher (chart 2). Global trade flows are being reshaped by US policy, with China’s excess capacity increasingly diverted toward Europe, most visibly through surging exports of electric vehicles (EVs) (charts 3 and 4). At the same time, wage growth remains stubbornly elevated in the UK, complicating disinflation (chart 5), while concerns are mounting over the country’s external vulnerabilities as net FDI and portfolio positions weaken against the backdrop of jittery debt markets (chart 6). Together, these dynamics highlight the tension between buoyant market performance and a global economy still grappling with structural fragilities.

Charts of the Week: Riskbusters

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Real GDP grew 3.3% (SAAR) during the second quarter of 2025, revised from a 3.0% gain reported initially. The increase followed an unrevised 0.5% decline in Q1. A 3.1% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Growth during the last four quarters of 2.1% compared to 2.0% y/y in Q1, and remained below its most recent high of 3.2% in Q4 2023.

After-tax corporate profits without IVA & CCA adjustment increased 1.4% (7.0% y/y) last quarter after easing 0.8% in Q1. Before-tax earnings with IVA & CCA rose 1.7% (4.3% y/y) after falling 2.3% in Q1. Financial sector earnings rose 1.4% (15.3% y/y) after rising 2.3% in Q1. Nonfinancial corporate profits rose 2.2% (2.5% y/y) after falling 2.5% in Q1. Earnings from abroad eased 0.7% (-0.4% y/y) following a 7.3% Q1 decline.

Foreign trade balance improvement added 4.95 percentage points to growth last quarter after subtracting 4.61 percentage points in Q1. Imports fell 29.8% (+1.3% y/y) after surging 38.0% in Q1. Exports declined 1.3% (+2.0% y/y) after improving 0.4% in Q1. Inventories subtracted 3.29 percentage points from growth after adding 2.59 percentage point to Q1 growth.

Real final sales to domestic purchasers grew 1.6% (2.4% y/y), revised from 1.1%, in Q2 after rising 1.5% in Q1. Personal consumption expenditures rose 1.6% (2.4% y/y), revised from 1.4%, following a 0.5% gain. Durable goods spending rose 2.6% (4.6% y/y) after falling 3.7% in Q1. Motor vehicle purchases strengthened 11.7% (6.7% y/y) after declining 11.2% in Q1. Spending on home furnishings & appliances weakened 2.1% (+3.5% y/y) following a 1.5% rise. Recreational goods & vehicle outlays fell 3.5% (+4.3% y/y) last quarter after a 0.4% Q1 gain.

Nondurable goods outlays in constant dollars rose 2.3% (3.0% y/y) following 2.1% growth in Q1. Apparel spending increased 5.4% (4.8% y/y) following a 7.0% rise. Food & beverage buying gained 0.3% (1.5% y/y) after a 1.0% increase. Gasoline & fuel oil purchases weakened 1.4% (+0.9% y/y) after gaining 3.6% in Q1.

Real spending on services increased 1.2% (1.9% y/y) after a 0.6% gain. Outlays on housing & utilities eased 0.4% (+1.1% y/y) after rising 2.9% in Q1. Health care expenditures rose 4.2% (4.8% y/y) after a 3.1% increase. Transportation outlays declined 2.9% (-0.6% y/y) after a 1.4% rise, while recreation spending rose 3.6% (0.7% y/y) following a 5.1% decline. Restaurant & hotel expenditures increased 5.1% (1.9% y/y) after falling 1.8%. Financial services expenditures rose 1.9% (2.3% y/y) following a 0.1% Q1 increase.

Business fixed investment in constant dollars increased 5.7% last quarter (4.2% y/y), revised from 1.9%, following a 10.3% surge in Q1. Expenditures on structures declined 8.9% (-3.4% y/y), after falling 2.4% in Q1. Expenditures on producers’ durable equipment increased 7.4% (7.7% y/y), revised from 4.8%, after surging 23.7% in Q1. Outlays on information processing equipment rose 10.1% (20.1% y/y), revised from 5.5%, after soaring 72.8% during Q1. Industrial equipment investment rose 6.7% (4.0% y/y) after a 4.7% rise. Transportation equipment investment surged 20.4% (6.8% y/y) after a 6.9% gain. Intellectual property product spending rose 12.8% last quarter (5.2% y/y) following a 6.0% rise.

Residential structures investment in real terms declined a little-revised 4.7% (-1.3% y/y), the fourth decline in the last five quarters.

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Government spending eased 0.2%, revised from up 0.5% in Q2 (+1.8% y/y) after a 0.6% decline. Federal government expenditures declined 4.7% (+0.7% y/y) after falling 4.6% in Q1. National defense expenditures increased 1.4% (3.0% y/y) after declining 7.1% in Q1. State & local government spending rose 2.6% (2.5% y/y) following a 2.0% rise.

The GDP chain price index rose an unrevised and expected 2.0% last quarter (2.5% y/y) after increasing 3.8% in Q1. The PCE chain price index increased 2.0% (2.4% y/y) following a 3.7% rise. The PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 2.5% (2.7% y/y) after increasing 3.5% in Q1. The business fixed investment price index edged 0.5% lower (+1.1% y/y) after a 0.4% rise. The residential price index rose 1.1% (2.6% y/y) after a 4.1% rise while the government price index increased 3.3% (3.1% y/y) following a 4.6% rise.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Business investment strengthens & consumer spending firms.
- U.S. business earnings reverse Q1 decline.
- Increase in price index is unrevised, remaining roughly half of Q1’s gain.

Economy in Brief: 2004

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