Global| Aug 24 2004Existing Home Sales Down
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Existing single family home sales fell 2.9% in July to 6.72M. The record high in June was revised slightly lower. Consensus expectations had been for a lesser decline to 6.80M. The figures reflect closings of home sales in earlier [...]
Existing single family home sales fell 2.9% in July to 6.72M. The record high in June was revised slightly lower. Consensus expectations had been for a lesser decline to 6.80M.
The figures reflect closings of home sales in earlier months.
Sales fell across the nation except in the South where they rose modestly to a record high.
The median price of an existing home rose a slight 0.2% m/m to $191,300 (+8.7% y/y).
The latest release from the National Association of Realtors is available here.
| Existing Home Sales (000, AR) | July | June | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Existing Single-Family | 6,720 | 6,920 | 8.6% | 6,111 | 5,583 | 5,290 |
by Tom Moeller August 24, 2004
Chain store sales recovered just 0.1% last week of a 0.6% decline in sales the week prior according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS.
The lackluster performance left sales so far in August 0.1% above the July average which rose 0.3% versus June.
During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation between y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
| ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100) | 08/21/04 | 08/14/04 | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales | 439.3 | 438.8 | 2.9% | 2.9% | 3.6% | 2.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
