Economy in Brief: 2021

The economy watchers current index improved smartly to 41.3 in February from 31.2 in January as the outlook index jumped to 51.3 from 39.9. The outlook index (above a raw score of 50 in diffusion terms) now has more optimism than [...]

• Wholesale inventory accumulation is broad-based. • Unexpected jump in sales lowers I/S ratio. Activity in the wholesale sector is strengthening. Wholesale inventories surged 1.3% during January (0.6% y/y) following a 0.6% December [...]

• Credit card borrowing continues to retreat. • Nonrevolving credit usage slows further. Consumers reduced credit balances further in January. Consumer credit outstanding fell a seasonally adjusted $1.3 billion (-0.3% y/y) during [...]

• Leisure & hospitality drives gain in jobs. • Earnings growth remains moderate m/m. • Unemployment rate declines to lowest level since March 2020. As the economy began to reopen more widely after closures due to COVID-19, the job [...]

German order growth is back in gear with total orders rising by 1.4% month-to-month in January. The gain, however, is generated wholly by foreign orders that surged by 4.2% in January after dropping by 3.1% month-to-month in December. [...]

• Exports grow 1%. Imports rise 1.2%. • This report suggests little impact on Q1 GDP forecasts. The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services widened to $68.2 billion in January from a slight upwardly revised $67 billion deficit in [...]

• Leisure & hospitality drives gain in jobs. • Earnings growth remains moderate m/m. • Unemployment rate declines to lowest level since March 2020. As the economy began to reopen more widely after closures due to COVID-19, the job [...]

A super-fast rise in commodity prices is underway. It should not be a surprise that as the world economy re-opens, commodity prices start to rise to reflect more robust demand conditions. But what has been surprising is the speed and [...]