Global| Mar 05 2021U.S. Payrolls Surge in February and Jobless Rate Slips
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Leisure & hospitality drives gain in jobs. • Earnings growth remains moderate m/m. • Unemployment rate declines to lowest level since March 2020. As the economy began to reopen more widely after closures due to COVID-19, the job [...]
• Leisure & hospitality drives gain in jobs.
• Earnings growth remains moderate m/m.
• Unemployment rate declines to lowest level since March 2020.
As the economy began to reopen more widely after closures due to COVID-19, the job market revived. Nonfarm payroll employment surged 379,000 (-6.0% y/y) during February following a 166,000 January gain, revised from 49,000. A 200,000 increase in February had been expected in the Action Economic Forecast Survey. December's decline was deepened to -306,000 from -227,000. The estimates of the February payroll change ranged from 43,000 to 350,000 amongst 25 forecasters. The survey for the February employment report was taken during the second week of last month.
Average hourly earnings growth of 0.2% (5.3% y/y) last month compared to 0.1% in January, revised from 0.2%. December earnings surged 1.0%. A 0.2% increase had been expected.
The unemployment rate edged lower to 6.2% from 6.3% in January. An uptick 6.4% had been expected. Employment in the household survey rose 208,000 (-5.4% y/y) after increasing 201,000 in January while the labor force edged 50,000 higher (-2.6% y/y) after declining 406,000 in January. The overall jobless rate, including those who were marginally attached or working part-time for economic reasons, held steady at 11.1%, remaining at the lowest point since March of last year.
The employment & earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figures are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 379 | 166 | -306 | -6.0% | -5.8% | 1.3% | 1.6% |
| Previous Estimate | -- | 49 | -227 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | 21 | -14 | 35 | -4.1 | -5.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 |
| Construction | -61 | 1 | 47 | -3.8 | -3.0 | 2.8 | 4.6 |
| Private Service-Producing | 513 | 103 | -356 | -6.3 | -6.6 | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Government | -86 | 76 | -32 | -5.9 | -3.1 | 0.7 | 0.5 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.6 | 34.9 | 34.7 | 34.4 | 34.6 | 34.4 | 34.5 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.2 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 3.3 | 3.0 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 6.2 | 6.3 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 3.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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