Economy in Brief: 2016

France is the perfect picture of the oncoming ECB dilemma. Inflation is rising (PPI here) but not so high. The PPI and core CPI (note sideways momentum in core CPI and mild uptrend in core PPI) show modest pressure on year-over-year [...]

The housing market remains firm. Sales of existing homes improved 0.7% (15.4% y/y) during November to 5.610 million units (AR) from 5.570 million in October, revised from 5.600 million. The latest level was the highest since February [...]

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its total Mortgage Market Volume Index increased 2.5% last week (-9.5% y/y), but made up just part of the prior week's 4.0% decline. Since their peak early in July, applications have [...]

Regular gasoline prices rose to $2.26 per gallon (11.7% y/y) last week, the highest level since early in October. Prices remained down, however, versus a 2014 high of $3.71 per gallon. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for [...]

The EMU-wide current account and trade balances both contracted in October. Exports fell for the second month in a row while imports rose, more than shaking off their decline in September. In terms of 12-month trends, exports are [...]

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's Nonmanufacturing Business Index of current conditions in December rose to 30.4 from 15.6 in November. It rebounded to the highest level since June 2015. Forty-seven percent of respondents [...]

The decline in the overall unemployment rate to 4.5% during November reflects a range of state unemployment rates from a high of 6.8% in Alaska to a 2.7% low in South Dakota. The unemployment rate in Alaska continued to top the chart [...]

The IFO survey shows pretty much across-the-board sector increases in December (the retail index is unchanged). Except for construction, all sectors have risen by more in the last four months than they have over the last 12 months. [...]