Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080826a.jpg" width="353">
The pump price for a gallon of regular gasoline fell another six cents last week to $3.69 per gallon, according to the U.S. Department of Energy survey. The price has now fallen by 43 cents, or 10.4%, from the peak in early July. Nevertheless, gasoline prices still are one-third higher than last summer. For all grades of gasoline the average price fell six cents to $3.74 per gallon.
Yesterday the spot market price for a gallon of regular gasoline fell to $2.82 per gallon. That was versus last week&#39;s average of $2.86.
Weekly gasoline prices can be found in Haver&#39;s WEEKLY database, daily prices are in the DAILY database.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080826b.jpg" width="353">
According to the U.S. Department of Energy, the demand for gasoline rose a slight 0.2% during the last four weeks but remained down 1.9% from a year earlier.
The DOE figures are available in Haver&#39;s OILWKLY database.
The price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil ticked up last week to an average $115.60 per barrel. That&#39;s down from the high early last month of $142.46. The price was, however, still up by two-thirds from last summer.
Prices for natural gas fell again w/w to an average $7.93 per mmbtu (+33.6% y/y). The high for natural gas prices was in early-July at $13.19/mmbtu.
Fueling Expected Inflation from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found <a href="http://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/mt/20080901/cover.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W4/@W4.HTM">Weekly Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">08/25/08</th>
<th scope="col">08/18/08</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per Gallon)</td>
<td>3.69</td>
<td>3.74</td>
<td>34.0%</td>
<td>2.80</td>
<td>2.57</td>
<td>2.27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI&nbsp; ($ per bbl.)</td>
<td>115.60</td>
<td>114.45</td>
<td>64.5%</td>
<td>72.25</td>
<td>66.12</td>
<td>56.60</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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The pump price for a gallon of regular gasoline fell another six cents last week to $3.69 per gallon, according to the U.S. Department of Energy survey. The price has now fallen by 43 cents, or 10.4%, from the peak in early July. [...]

U.S. Gasoline Prices Fell Further

The Conference Board reported that consumer confidence rose a surprising 9.6% this month after a moderate 1.8% July gain. The rise contrasted with Consensus expectations for just a modest increase. The increase was fueled by a 23.7% [...]

Consumer Confidence Up in August

Robert Brusca

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080825g.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Not that SPAIN is an inflation
bellwether but a 23-year high is a
23-year high -- Soaring energy costs sent Spanish producer
price inflation to a 23 ½ year high of 10.1 percent in July. Many are
calling this the peak in inflation. With energy prices as the culprit
and world energy prices having moved off-peak, that bet seems a good
one. Inflation in Spain, as in the rest of Europe, has been propelled
by a 30 percent rise in energy prices. In July the headline rate was
the greatest annual increase since November 1984 and it compared with a
9 percent rate of increase in June. Producer
prices rose 1.3 percent month on month, compared to 1.4 percent in
June. Since July lower consumer goods demand and a housing and credit
crisis add to lower world oil prices as reasons for Spain&#8217;s inflation
rate to abate.
Still e-Zoners have their lingering concerns. In Jackson Hole
Wyoming as the KC Fed&#8217;s conference disbanded, Italy&#8217;s central back head
Mario Draghi warned that if central banks became too preoccupied with
financial stability they could lose their grip on inflation. Draghi
argued that price stability was the true key to getting economies back
on track. Clearly central bankers have a lot on their minds in addition
to what is on their plates.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="8" scope="col"> Spain PPI</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="3">m/m</td>
<td colspan="4">Saar</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">SPAIN</td>
<td>Jul-08</td>
<td>Jun-08</td>
<td>May-08</td>
<td>3-Mo</td>
<td>6-Mo</td>
<td>Yr/Yr</td>
<td>Y/Y Yr Ago</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>16.3%</td>
<td>11.1%</td>
<td>10.1%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumer</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>15.4%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>10.1%</td>
<td>9.2%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Investment</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td class="firstcol">HIPPXConstruction</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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Not that SPAIN is an inflation bellwether but a 23-year high is a 23-year high -- Soaring energy costs sent Spanish producer price inflation to a 23 ˝ year high of 10.1 percent in July. Many are calling this the peak in inflation. [...]

Spain's PPI Surges

Louise Curley

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080825e.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) reported that real GDP in
the United Kingdom in the second quarter of this year was unchanged
from the first quarter. Consumption expenditures were little changed as
household consumption expenditures were down slightly by 0.06% and
government consumption expenditures up slightly by 0.4%. A substantial
improvement in the balance of trade in goods and services and a
increase in inventories were offset by an equally large decline in
gross fixed capital formation as a result of the declines in
investments in dwellings and in business and government capital
outlays. The first chart shows the quarter-to-quarter and the
year-to-year changes in GDP.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080825f.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
In terms of business activity, the production industries declined
0.8% in the second quarter, following a 0.2% decline in the first
quarter. Construction was down 1.1%. The service industries managed a
slight increase of 0.2%. The second chart shows the changes in the
production and the services areas.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">UNITED KINGDOM&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Q2 2008</th>
<th scope="col">Q1&nbsp;2008&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Q4&nbsp;2007&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Q4&nbsp;2007&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Real GDP Q/Q Change</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>3.06</td>
<td>2.92</td>
<td>1.84</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Y/Y Change</td>
<td>1.4</td>
<td>2.3</td>
<td>2.8</td>
<td>3.1</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Real &nbsp;GVA&nbsp; Q/Q Change</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>2.99</td>
<td>2.97</td>
<td>1.90</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Production</td>
<td>-0.8</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Construction</td>
<td>-1.1</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Services</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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The Office of National Statistics (ONS) reported that real GDP in the United Kingdom in the second quarter of this year was unchanged from the first quarter. Consumption expenditures were little changed as household consumption [...]

GDP in the United Kingdom Flat in the Second Quarter

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080825c.jpg" width="353">
For July, the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank indicated that its National Activity Index (CFNAI) weakened slightly. The reading of -0.67 was lower than the revised figure of -0.59 in June.
The three-month moving average of the index, however, improved somewhat to -0.80 from -0.94 during the prior month. The figures were the least negative since January.
An index level at or below -0.70 typically has indicated negative U.S. economic growth. A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth of roughly 3%. During the last twenty years there has been a 68% correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.
The complete CFNAI report is available <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/economic_research_and_data/files/cfnai_august2008.pdf">here</a> and the historical data are available in Haver&#39;s SURVEYS database.
The components of the July index were mostly unchanged from June.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080825d.jpg" width="353">
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories: production &amp; income, the labor market, personal consumption &amp; housing, manufacturing &amp; trade sales, and inventories &amp; orders.
In a separate survey, the Chicago Fed indicated that its Midwest manufacturing index improved in June to its best level since March. A rise in the auto sector sub-component was offset by deterioration the steel, machinery and resource sector indexes.
Reducing Systemic Risk is Friday&#39;s speech by Fed ChairmanBen S. Bernanke at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City&#39;s Annual Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming and it can be found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20080822a.htm">here</a>.
Creating value-based competition in heath care from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is available <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/fedletter/cflseptember2008_254a.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S5/@S503/@S503.HTM">Chicago Fed</a></th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">July &#39;07</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">CFNAI</td>
<td>-0.67</td>
<td>-0.59</td>
<td>0.09</td>
<td>-0.43</td>
<td>-0.04</td>
<td>0.27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; 3-Month Average</td>
<td>-0.80</td>
<td>-0.94</td>
<td>-0.13</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


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For July, the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank indicated that its National Activity Index (CFNAI) weakened slightly. The reading of -0.67 was lower than the revised figure of -0.59 in June. The three-month moving average of the index, [...]

Chicago Fed Index Slightly Weaker in July

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080825a.jpg" width="353">
The level of existing homes rose 3.1% last month to 5.00 million. The figure, reported by the National Association of Realtors, more than made up a 2.8% decline during June and the rise lifted sales to the highest level since February. The figure was firmer than Consensus expectations for a selling rate of 4.91M homes. Total sales include sales of condos and co-ops.
Sales of existing single-family homes also made up (most) of their June decline and rose 3.1%. These sales (which have a longer history than the total) were still near the lowest level since early-1998.
By region, home sales in the West rose a sharp 9.7% (+0.9% y/y). They were up by more than one-quarter from last October&#39;s low. Sales in the Northeast also were firm and rose 5.9%. In the Midwest, however, sales posted only a modest 0.9% increase and in the South sales ticked 0.5% lower. These sales remained near the lowest level since 2000.
Median home prices last month reversed just some of their June rise with a 1.3% decline. Nevertheless, prices were up 8.6% from the February low.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080825b.jpg" width="353">
The number of unsold homes (condos &amp; single-family) on the market rose 3.9% from June (2.4% y/y). At the current sales rate the inventory rose slightly to an 11.2 months supply which is the record high for this series. For single-family homes, however, the inventory was unchanged m/m (1.8% y/y) and that amounted to 10.6 months supply at the current sales rate. That was still near the highest supply since 1985.
Divorcing Money from Monetary Policy from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found <a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/epr/forthcoming/0808keis.pdf">here</a>.
Signal or Noise? Implications of the Term Premium for Recession Forecasting, also from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, is available <a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/epr/08v14n1/0807rose.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Existing Home Sales (Thous)</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">y/y %</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">July &#39;07</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>5,000</td>
<td>-13.2</td>
<td>4,850</td>
<td>5,760</td>
<td>5,672</td>
<td>6,508</td>
<td>7,076</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Northeast</td>
<td>900</td>
<td>-11.8</td>
<td>850</td>
<td>1,020</td>
<td>1,008</td>
<td>1,090</td>
<td>1,168</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Midwest</td>
<td>1,120</td>
<td>-17.0</td>
<td>1,110</td>
<td>1,350</td>
<td>1,331</td>
<td>1,491</td>
<td>1,589</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; South</td>
<td>1,850</td>
<td>-18.1</td>
<td>1,860</td>
<td>2,260</td>
<td>2,240</td>
<td>2,576</td>
<td>2,704</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; West</td>
<td>1,130</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>1,030</td>
<td>1,120</td>
<td>1,093</td>
<td>1,353</td>
<td>1,617</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Single-Family</td>
<td>4,390</td>
<td>-12.4</td>
<td>4,260</td>
<td>5,010</td>
<td>4,958</td>
<td>5,703</td>
<td>6,181</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Median Price, Total, $</td>
<td>212,400</td>
<td>-7.1</td>
<td>215,100</td>
<td>228,600</td>
<td>216,617</td>
<td>222,000</td>
<td>218,217</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The level of existing homes rose 3.1% last month to 5.00 million. The figure, reported by the National Association of Realtors, more than made up a 2.8% decline during June and the rise lifted sales to the highest level since [...]

U.S. Existing Home Sales Highest Since February

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080825c.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
For July, the Chicago Federal Reserve Bank indicated that its
National Activity Index (CFNAI) weakened slightly. The reading of -0.67
was lower than the revised figure of -0.59 in June.
The three-month moving average of the index, however, improved
somewhat to -0.80 from -0.94 during the prior month. The figures were
the least negative since January.
An index level at or below -0.70 typically has indicated
negative U.S. economic growth. A zero value of the CFNAI indicates that
the economy is expanding at its historical trend rate of growth of
roughly 3%. During the last twenty years there has been a 68%
correlation between the level of the CFNAI and q/q growth in real GDP.
The complete CFNAI report is available <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/economic_research_and_data/files/cfnai_august2008.pdf">here</a>
and the historical data are available in Haver's SURVEYS
database.
The components of the July index were mostly unchanged from
June.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080825d.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 indicators of economic
activity. The indicators reflect activity in the following categories:
production &amp; income, the labor market, personal consumption
&amp; housing, manufacturing &amp; trade sales, and inventories
&amp; orders.
In a separate survey, the Chicago Fed indicated that its
Midwest manufacturing index improved in June to its best level since
March. A rise in the auto sector sub-component was offset by
deterioration the steel, machinery and resource sector indexes.
Reducing Systemic Risk is Friday's speech
by Fed ChairmanBen S. Bernanke at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas
City's Annual Economic Symposium, Jackson Hole, Wyoming and it can be
found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20080822a.htm">here</a>.
Creating value-based competition in heath care
from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago is available <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/fedletter/cflseptember2008_254a.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S5/@S503/@S503.HTM">Chicago
Fed</a></th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">July '07</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">CFNAI</td>
<td>-0.67</td>
<td>-0.59</td>
<td>0.09</td>
<td>-0.43</td>
<td>-0.04</td>
<td>0.27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; 3-Month Average</td>
<td>-0.80</td>
<td>-0.94</td>
<td>-0.13</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Existing Home Sales Highest
Since February 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom
Moeller</a> August 25, 2008


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080825a.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The level of existing homes rose 3.1% last
month to 5.00 million. The figure, reported by the National Association
of Realtors, more than made up a 2.8% decline during June and the rise
lifted sales to the highest level since February. The figure was firmer
than Consensus expectations for a selling rate of 4.91M homes. Total
sales include sales of condos and co-ops.
Sales of existing single-family homes also made up (most) of
their June decline and rose 3.1%. These sales (which have a longer
history than the total) were still near the lowest level since
early-1998.
By region, home sales in the West rose a sharp 9.7% (+0.9%
y/y). They were up by more than one-quarter from last October's low.
Sales in the Northeast also were firm and rose 5.9%. In the Midwest,
however, sales posted only a modest 0.9% increase and in the South
sales ticked 0.5% lower. These sales remained near the lowest level
since 2000.
Median home prices last month reversed
just some of their June rise with a 1.3% decline. Nevertheless, prices
were up 8.6% from the February low.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080825b.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The number of unsold homes (condos &amp; single-family) on
the market rose 3.9% from June (2.4% y/y). At the current sales rate
the inventory rose slightly to an 11.2 months supply which is the
record high for this series. For single-family homes, however, the
inventory was unchanged m/m (1.8% y/y) and that amounted to 10.6 months
supply at the current sales rate. That was still near the highest
supply since 1985.
Divorcing Money from Monetary Policy from
the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can be found <a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/epr/forthcoming/0808keis.pdf">here</a>.
Signal or Noise? Implications of the Term Premium for
Recession Forecasting, also from the Federal Reserve Bank of
New York, is available <a href="http://www.newyorkfed.org/research/epr/08v14n1/0807rose.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Existing
Home Sales (Thous)</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">y/y %</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">July '07</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>5,000</td>
<td>-13.2</td>
<td>4,850</td>
<td>5,760</td>
<td>5,672</td>
<td>6,508</td>
<td>7,076</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Northeast</td>
<td>900</td>
<td>-11.8</td>
<td>850</td>
<td>1,020</td>
<td>1,008</td>
<td>1,090</td>
<td>1,168</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Midwest</td>
<td>1,120</td>
<td>-17.0</td>
<td>1,110</td>
<td>1,350</td>
<td>1,331</td>
<td>1,491</td>
<td>1,589</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; South</td>
<td>1,850</td>
<td>-18.1</td>
<td>1,860</td>
<td>2,260</td>
<td>2,240</td>
<td>2,576</td>
<td>2,704</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; West</td>
<td>1,130</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>1,030</td>
<td>1,120</td>
<td>1,093</td>
<td>1,353</td>
<td>1,617</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Single-Family</td>
<td>4,390</td>
<td>-12.4</td>
<td>4,260</td>
<td>5,010</td>
<td>4,958</td>
<td>5,703</td>
<td>6,181</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Median Price, Total, $</td>
<td>212,400</td>
<td>-7.1</td>
<td>215,100</td>
<td>228,600</td>
<td>216,617</td>
<td>222,000</td>
<td>218,217</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
GDP in the United Kingdom Flat in
the Second Quarter 
by <a href="/comment/Curley.html">Louise
Curley</a> August 25, 2008


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080825e.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The Office of National Statistics (ONS) reported that real GDP
in the United Kingdom in the second quarter of this year was unchanged
from the first quarter. Consumption expenditures were little changed as
household consumption expenditures were down slightly by 0.06% and
government consumption expenditures up slightly by 0.4%. A substantial
improvement in the balance of trade in goods and services and a
increase in inventories were offset by an equally large decline in
gross fixed capital formation as a result of the declines in
investments in dwellings and in business and government capital
outlays. The first chart shows the quarter-to-quarter and the
year-to-year changes in GDP.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080825f.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
In terms of business activity, the production industries
declined 0.8% in the second quarter, following a 0.2% decline in the
first quarter. Construction was down 1.1%. The service industries
managed a slight increase of 0.2%. The second chart shows the changes
in the production and the services areas.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">UNITED
KINGDOM&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Q2 2008</th>
<th scope="col">Q1&nbsp;2008&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Q4&nbsp;2007&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Q4&nbsp;2007&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Real GDP Q/Q Change</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td>3.06</td>
<td>2.92</td>
<td>1.84</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Y/Y Change</td>
<td>1.4</td>
<td>2.3</td>
<td>2.8</td>
<td>3.1</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Real
&nbsp;GVA&nbsp; Q/Q Change</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>2.99</td>
<td>2.97</td>
<td>1.90</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Production</td>
<td>-0.8</td>
<td>-0.2</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Construction</td>
<td>-1.1</td>
<td>1.0</td>
<td>0.9</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Services</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>0.3</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>0.5</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol"></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Spain&#8217;s PPI Surges 
by <a href="/comment/Brusca.html">Robert
Brusca</a> August 25, 2008


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080825g.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Not that SPAIN is an inflation
bellwether but a 23-year high is a 23-year high -- Soaring
energy costs sent Spanish producer price inflation to a 23 ½ year high
of 10.1 percent in July. Many are calling this the peak in inflation.
With energy prices as the culprit and world energy prices having moved
off-peak, that bet seems a good one. Inflation in Spain, as in the rest
of Europe, has been propelled by a 30 percent rise in energy prices. In
July the headline rate was the greatest annual increase since November
1984 and it compared with a 9 percent rate of increase in June. Producer prices rose 1.3 percent month
on month, compared to 1.4 percent in June. Since July lower consumer
goods demand and a housing and credit crisis add to lower world oil
prices as reasons for Spain&#8217;s inflation rate to abate.
Still e-Zoners have their lingering concerns. In Jackson Hole
Wyoming as the KC Fed&#8217;s conference disbanded, Italy&#8217;s central back head
Mario Draghi warned that if central banks became too preoccupied with
financial stability they could lose their grip on inflation. Draghi
argued that price stability was the true key to getting economies back
on track. Clearly central bankers have a lot on their minds in addition
to what is on their plates.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%"> <colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="8" scope="col"> Spain PPI</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="3">m/m</td>
<td colspan="4">Saar</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">SPAIN</td>
<td>Jul-08</td>
<td>Jun-08</td>
<td>May-08</td>
<td>3-Mo</td>
<td>6-Mo</td>
<td>Yr/Yr</td>
<td>Y/Y Yr Ago</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>16.3%</td>
<td>11.1%</td>
<td>10.1%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumer</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>15.4%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>10.1%</td>
<td>9.2%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Investment</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td class="firstcol">HIPPXConstruction</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>#N/A</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/080822b.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Import growth in the Euro Area is still firm while export
growth is fading. Import growth is of course is supported by strength
in oil imports, much of that on the price side. For manufactured goods
both exports and imports are weak over 12 months with imports falling
by 1.8% and exports up by a scant 0.8%.
The accompanying chart tells the story of the trends with
trade deficits posted in five of the past seven months. Europe is
slowing down. Europe&#8217;s exports are slowing down. It&#8217;s a strong euro,
weak domestic growth and a weakening global economy at work that is
producing these results.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="7" scope="col">Euro Area
15-Trade Trends for Goods </th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="2">m/m%</td>
<td colspan="4">% Saar</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>Jun-08</td>
<td>May-08</td>
<td>3M</td>
<td>6M</td>
<td>12M</td>
<td>12M Ago</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Balance*</td>
<td>&#8364;&#8364; (2,954)</td>
<td>&#8364;&#8364; (1,035)</td>
<td>&#8364;&#8364; (861)</td>
<td>&#8364;&#8364; (440)</td>
<td>&#8364;&#8364; 1,543</td>
<td>&#8364;&#8364; (1,610)</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol" colspan="7">Exports</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">All exports</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>-4.7%</td>
<td>8.5%</td>
<td>11.3%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>10.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Food and drinks</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>8.5%</td>
<td>13.5%</td>
<td>9.5%</td>
<td>11.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Raw materials</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>23.4%</td>
<td>31.3%</td>
<td>10.4%</td>
<td>11.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Other</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>-5.1%</td>
<td>8.2%</td>
<td>10.7%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>9.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">MFG</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>-3.8%</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
<td>11.2%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>13.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol" colspan="7">Imports</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">All imports</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>-3.0%</td>
<td>14.8%</td>
<td>14.1%</td>
<td>10.6%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Food and drinks</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>7.9%</td>
<td>-2.1%</td>
<td>8.3%</td>
<td>7.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Raw materials</td>
<td>-1.1%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>15.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Other</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>-3.3%</td>
<td>16.0%</td>
<td>15.6%</td>
<td>11.2%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">MFG</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>-1.7%</td>
<td>9.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey2">
<td colspan="5" class="firstcol">*Millions of
Euros; mo or period
average</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

Import growth in the Euro Area is still firm while export growth is fading. Import growth is of course is supported by strength in oil imports, much of that on the price side. For manufactured goods both exports and imports are weak [...]

Euro Area Export Trends are Lagging

Latest PMIs show US losing momentum while RoW is gaining momentum

Sticky services prices behind sticky overall PCE inflation

Flash April PMIs point to slower growth in the US but a pickup in Europe and Japan

Outlook strengthens for US while it weakens for other major economies

Crude petroleum prices are having a big impact on inflation expectations

Inflation surprising to upside in the US; by contrast to the downside in the euro area

 Gross Domestic Income is catching up with GDP

FOMC expects GDP growth above trend over the next three years

US core CPI inflation has begun to reaccelerate

Fiscal-policy aided factory building in the U.S. provided an unusually large boost to growth last year

US consumers much more optimistic than those in the Euro area and the UK

  Job openings take a step down in 2024

Fed's super core services inflation measure pushing up core rate

Blue Chip forecasters expect significant monetary easing this year except in Japan

Euro area economy stagnating while US grows above trend

Chinese and Japanese equity markets are diverging markedly

Chinese population declines in 2023 for second consecutive year

Outlook for US GDP growth on the rise; declining in euro area, Japan and China

There are still 1.4 job openings for every unemployed person in the US

US PCE inflation over the past six months has slowed to the Fed's 2% target

FOMC think rate hikes are done and looks for 75bps of decline in 2024

Weaker economic data surprises pushing down US interest rates

Recent disinflation has been widespread across Europe and North America

Recent decline in US inflation expectations helping to lower interest rates

China is losing its luster as foreign direct investment heads out

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240516f4.jpg

240516g4.jpg

Total housing starts increased 5.7% (-0.6% y/y) during April to 1.360 million units (SAAR) after falling 16.8% in March to 1.287 million units, revised from 1.321 million. Starts in February rose a little-revised 12.4% to 1.546 million units. Starts remained 24.6% below the most recent peak of 1.803 million in April 2022. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 1.420 million starts in April.

Housing starts by type were mixed last month. Starts of single-family units eased 0.4% (+17.7% y/y) to 1.031 million after declining 8.7% in March to 1.035 million, revised from 1.022 million. They reached a high of 1.286 units in December 2020. Multi-family starts increased 30.6% (-33.1% y/y) in April to 329,000 after falling 38.8% to 252,000 in March, revised from 299,000. They reached a high of 624,000 units in November 2022.

Regional activity was mixed in April. In the Northeast, the level of starts fell 22.6% (-43.8% y/y) to 72,000 units after declining 21.8% in March and 10.5% in February. Starts in the Midwest rose 19.1% (3.4% y/y) to 181,000 following a 36.4% March decline. Starts in the South improved 10.1% (4.9% y/y) to 799,000 after a 15.9% March decline. In the West, starts fell 2.5% (+1.7% y/y) to 308,000 after declining in each of the prior three months.

Building permits declined 3.0% (-2.0% y/y) in April 1.440 million units after falling 5.0% to 1.485 million in March, revised from 1.458 million. It was the lowest level of permits since December 2022. Single-family permits eased 0.8% (+11.4% y/y) to 976,000 in April following a 4.2% March decline and a 0.4% February slip. Multi-family permits weakened 7.4% (-21.9% y/y) to 464,000, after falling 6.5% in March.

The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.



240516h4.jpg

240516i4.jpg

- Single-family starts decline but multi-family surge.
- Starts are mixed throughout the country.
- Building permits fall to lowest level in over one year.


U.S. Housing Starts Rise Modestly in April; Building Permits Fall

Sandy Batten

240516r2.jpg

240516s2.jpg

Total industrial production was unchanged in April from March and 0.4% lower than a year ago. The previously released 0.4% rise in March was revised down to a meager 0.1% monthly gain. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.1% increase in production last month. Manufacturing production slumped 0.3% m/m (-0.5% y/y) after a downwardly revised 0.2% monthly gain in March (initially reported as 0.5%). 

Mining activity declined for the third time in the past four months, falling 0.6% (-1.3% /y) following an upwardly revised 1.1% m/m decline in March (previously -1.4% m/m). Utilities output was the only positive part of industrial activity in April, rising 2.8% m/m (+2.3% y/y) on top of a downwardly revised 1.6% monthly gain in March (previously 2.0% m/m).

Amid the monthly volatility, manufacturing output has been relatively flat over the past nine months. In fact, the index level in April was 99.4, exactly the same as in August 2023. The manufacturing sector has been one of the most adversely affected by the Fed’s interest rate hikes. Since April 2022 (just after the Fed initiated it rate hikes in March 2022), manufacturing output has fallen 1.4%. Within the manufacturing sector in April, durable goods production fell 0.5% m/m, its first monthly decline in three months, led by a 2.0% m/m decline in motor vehicle production and a 1.9% m/m drop in the production of electrical equipment and appliances. Production of nondurable goods edged down 0.1% m/m in April following a 0.2% monthly increase in March. Production of selected high-technology industries increased 1.0% m/m. By contrast, petroleum and coal products output slumped 4.4%m/m, the first monthly decline in three months.

Manufacturing output excluding motor vehicles slipped 01% m/m in April after being unchanged in March. Manufacturing excluding selected high-tech industries fell 0.3% m/m in April versus a 0.1% monthly gain in March. Manufacturing output excluding both selected high-tech industries and motor vehicles decreased 0.2% m/m, its sixth monthly decline in the past seven months. Production of consumer goods inched up 0.1% m/m in April following a 0.5% monthly gain in March. Output of business equipment fell 0.5% m/m on top of a 0.2% monthly decline in March. 

Production of construction supplies fell 1.0% m/m in April, the sixth monthly decline in the past seven months. Materials output edged up 0.1% m/m in April, just offsetting a 0.1% m/m decline in March.

Total capacity utilization slipped to 78.4% in April from a slightly upward revised 78.5% in March (previously 78.4%). The April reading was exactly as expected by the Actions Economics Forecast Survey. The capacity utilization rate for manufacturing fell significantly to 76.9% from 77.2%. By contrast, the capacity rate for utilities rose to 71.0 from 69.2.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.



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- IP was unchanged in April with manufacturing falling 0.3% m/m
- Manufacturing decline led by 2.0% m/m drop in motor vehicle output
- Mining fell for the third month of the past four
- Capacity utilization slipped to 78.4%


U.S. Industrial Production Unchanged in April

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Import prices for all goods rose 0.9% (NSA) in April after a 0.6% March gain, revised from 0.4%, and a 0.2% February increase, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A 0.2% April rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The y/y change of 1.1% followed 12-month price declines all through 2023. 

Export prices increased 0.5% in April following a 0.1% March uptick, revised from 0.3%, and a minimally revised 0.7% February rise. A 0.2% price gain had been expected. These gains also followed a 0.7% January increase. The 1.0% y/y decline compared to an 11.8% y/y drop in June of last year. 

The monthly rise in April import prices was led by a 2.9% increase (5.2% y/y) in imported petroleum prices after they surged 6.7% in March. The April increase was the fourth consecutive monthly gain. The increase in imported petroleum costs was accompanied by a 9.2% decline in natural gas prices, off 42.5% y/y. Nonfuel import prices rose 0.7% (0.9% y/y) after a 0.2% March increase. Import prices for foods, feeds & beverages strengthened 1.7% (6.8% y/y), up for the fourth consecutive month. Motor vehicle & parts prices increased 0.3% (2.6% y/y) after a 0.2% rise. Capital goods prices edged 0.1% higher (-0.1% y/y) after a 0.2% decline while nonauto consumer goods prices also rose 0.1% (0.5% y/y) after falling 0.3% in March. 

The increase in April export prices included a 0.9% decline (-10.2% y/y) in agricultural export prices, which added to a 1.3% March drop . Nonagricultural export prices rose 0.7% (0.1% y/y), the fourth straight monthly gain. Export prices of industrial supplies & materials rose 1.0% (-1.7% y/y), the fourth straight month of firm gain. Automotive vehicles & parts export prices strengthened 0.8% (4.0% y/y) after easing 0.1% in March. Capital goods prices rose 0.4% (1.8% y/y) after edging 0.1% higher. A 0.1% uptick (-1.3% y/y) in nonauto consumer goods prices followed a 0.4% March rise. Foods, feeds & beverage prices were off 0.7% last month (-10.6% y/y) after falling 1.6% in March. 

The import and export price series can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Detailed figures are available in the **USINT** database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database. 


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- Import prices rise for fourth consecutive month.
- Excluding fuels, import prices edge up for sixth straight month.
- Export price gain improves. 


U.S. Import & Export Prices Strengthen in April

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The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported in its May survey of manufacturing activity that the Current Activity Diffusion Index fell to 4.5 this month from 15.5 in April. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had anticipated a decline to 5.0. The Philly Fed survey responses were collected from May 6 to May 13. More than 29% of the firms reported increases in general activity this month (down from 38% last month), while 25% reported decreases (up from 22%); 46% reported no change (up from 40%).

The headline index reflects the answer to a single question on the state of economic activity. Haver Analytics calculates a composite index along the lines of the ISM PMI. That calculated index fell to 46.4 in May from 49.8 in April. This indicates that even though the headline index was above zero, the components pointed to a weaker Philly Fed district manufacturing sector.

The decline in May was led by significant weakness in shipments and orders. The shipments subindex plummeted to -1.2 in May from 19.1 in April while the shipments subindex fell markedly to -7.9 from 12.2. The employment subindex rose slightly in May but remained in negative territory at -7.9. This is the seventh consecutive month that the employment index has been negative, pointing to an ongoing decline in employment. Two-thirds of the firms reported no change in employment levels this month, while the share of firms reporting decreases (20%) exceeded the share reporting increases (12%).

On balance, the firms continued to report overall increases in prices. After rising 19 points last month, the prices paid index declined 4 points to 18.7 in May. Almost 19% of the firms reported increases in input prices, while none reported decreases. The current prices received index ticked up 1 point to 6.6. Almost 13% of the firms reported increases in prices received for their own goods while 6% reported decreases. 

Expectations for business conditions in the next six months deteriorated slightly in May but remained elevated. The May reading was 32.4 versus 34.3 in April and 38.6 in March.

The indexes in this report are diffusion indexes and measure the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease. The Philadelphia Fed data can be found in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.



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- Even with the May decline, the index remains in positive territory, pointing to expansion
- However, both shipments and orders subindexes fell markedly and more worryingly into contraction territory
- The employment subindex rose slightly but remained negative
- Expectations decline slightly but remain elevated


Philly Fed Manufacturing Index Falls in May

Carol Stone, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 222,000 in the week ended May 11, down from 232,000 the week before; that earlier amount was revised slightly from 231,000 reported a week ago. The current week was close to the Action Economics Forecast Survey expectation of 219,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims was 217,750, up from 215,250 the week before.  

Insured unemployment, that is, the total number of continued weeks claimed for unemployment insurance, was 1.794 million in the week ended May 4, up from 1.781 million the week before; the earlier period’s amount was revised from 1.785 million reported before. In the May 4 week, the four-week moving average was 1,779,250, down marginally from 1.780 million in the four weeks ended April 27.

The insured unemployment rate, that is, insured unemployment as a percent of covered employment, was still 1.2% in the May 4 week. This rate has been at this level continuously since March 4, 2023, that is, almost 14 months.

Insured unemployment rates vary widely by individual states and territories. In the week ended April 27, the highest rates were in New Jersey (2.38%), California (2.27%), Rhode Island (1.78%), Massachusetts (1.76%) and New York (1.74%).  The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.30%), Kansas (0.34%), Florida (0.37%), Virginia, North Carolina and Kentucky (each 0.41%), and Nebraska (0.43%).  Rates in other prominent states include Illinois (1.66%), Pennsylvania (1.43%), Texas (1.06%), Michigan (1.04%) and Ohio (0.73%).  These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the **AS1REPNA** database.



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- Initial claims come back toward recent tight range
- Continued weeks claimed rise somewhat in May 4 week
- But insured unemployment rate holds at 1.2% into a 14th month 


Economy in Brief: August 2008

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U.S. Gasoline Prices Fell Further

Consumer Confidence Up in August

Spain's PPI Surges

GDP in the United Kingdom Flat in the Second Quarter

Chicago Fed Index Slightly Weaker in July

U.S. Existing Home Sales Highest Since February

Chicago Fed Index Slightly Weaker in July

Euro Area Export Trends are Lagging