Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021209b.jpg" width="353">
The decline in German industrial production from September to October was 2.1%, contrary to consensus expectations of a 0.9% increase. The decline was widespread, but production of capital goods suffered the least reduction of 0.8%. In all the other market sectors production declined by 2.5% or more. Production of consumer goods fell by 3.1%.
On a year over year basis, total production was down 1.4%, manufacturing and mining, down 0.5% and construction, down 10.4%. The indexes of total production and manufacturing and mining have shown year over year declines in each month of this year.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"></th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Sep</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Industrial Production</td>
<td>109.7</td>
<td>112.0</td>
<td>-1.4%</td>
<td>113.3</td>
<td>113.4</td>
<td>107.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Manuf&nbsp; &amp; Mining</td>
<td>116.8</td>
<td>119.3</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>120.0</td>
<td>119.1</td>
<td>111.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Construction</td>
<td>72.1</td>
<td>72.3</td>
<td>-10.4%</td>
<td>78.9</td>
<td>85.0</td>
<td>87.9</td>
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The decline in German industrial production from September to October was 2.1%, contrary to consensus expectations of a 0.9% increase. The decline was widespread, but production of capital goods suffered the least reduction of 0.8%. [...]

German Industrial Production Fell

Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021209a.jpg" width="353">
Corporate bond yields have remained near their cycle lows as yields on US Treasuries have moved higher. The spread between corporates and Treasuries returned to the range of the last three years.
The Merrill Lynch Corporate Master Index of average corporate bond yields of varying type and quality remained below 5.5% as of the end of last week. Yields on 10 Year Treasuries moved to 4.09% versus the low of 3.61% set in early October.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W1/@WB21/@WB21.HTM">Merrill Lynch Bond Yields</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Corporate Total</td>
<td>5.62%</td>
<td>5.94%</td>
<td>6.04%</td>
<td>6.50%</td>
<td>7.82%</td>
<td>6.96%</td>
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Corporate bond yields have remained near their cycle lows as yields on US Treasuries have moved higher. The spread between corporates and Treasuries returned to the range of the last three years. The Merrill Lynch Corporate Master [...]

Credit Spreads Tighten

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021206a.jpg" width="353">
Nonfarm payrolls were weaker than expected last month, falling 40,000 instead of rising 30,000 as expected by Consensus estimates. Figures for October and September were revised up slightly due to slightly higher estimates of service sector (mostly government) employment.
The unemployment rate rose by more than expected. Employment fell a whopping 689,000 (0.1% YTD) following a large decline in October. The labor force fell 390,000 (0.3% YTD).
Amongst industries, factory sector jobs fell 45,000 (-3.0% YTD) following a downwardly revised October decline. The one-month diffusion index for the factory sector improved slightly to 41.5 but remained low enough to suggest further declines in manufacturing sector jobs. Construction jobs fell 4,000(-1.4% YTD). Jobs in service producing industries rose 11,000 (0.6% YTD). Government employment rose 8,000 (1.1% YTD).
The length of the workweek was unchanged last month but up slightly from the 3Q average. The index of aggregate hours worked (employment times hours worked) fell 0.1% following an upwardly revised 0.1% October decline. So far the 4Q average is 0.2% above 3Q. That followed a 0.2% 3Q decline.
Over the last ten years there has been a 52% correlation between the quarterly change in aggregate hours worked and real GDP. That correlation is down from 89% in the 1980s. The decline is due to the recent acceleration in productivity growth.
The one-month diffusion index for nonfarm payrolls rose slightly to 47.7 from a downwardly revised October level of 46.8. The three month diffusion index rose to 45.5. These levels suggest little or no employment growth near term. 
The gain in average hourly earnings (2.5% YTD) was as expected and October&#39;s gain was revised slightly higher.
The nonfarm payroll employment figures are based on reports provided to the US Labor Department by businesses, while the figures from which the unemployment rate is derived are based on a survey of US households.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EB/@EB01/@EB01.HTM">Employment</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Payroll Employment</td>
<td>-40,000</td>
<td>6,000</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Manufacturing</td>
<td>-45,000</td>
<td>-59,000</td>
<td>-3.5%</td>
<td>-4.2%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Average Weekly Hours</td>
<td>34.2</td>
<td>34.2</td>
<td>34.1</td>
<td>34.2</td>
<td>34.4</td>
<td>34.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Average Hourly Earnings</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Consumer Credit Much Weaker Than Expected 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> December 6, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021206b.jpg" width="353">
Consumer credit outstanding rose only $1.5B (0.1%) in October. Consensus expectations were for a $6.5B rise. August and September figures were revised down. So far this year, consumer credit outstanding has risen at a 4.0% annual rate. 
Revolving credit rose only 0.3%, the same as in September which was revised down from a 0.8% gain. Revolving credit growth was 4.1% (AR) through October.
Nonrevolving credit fell slightly in October, the second decline in three months. Nonrevolving extension was up 4.0% (AR) YTD.
Yesterday&#39;s Federal Reserve release of third quarter Flow of Funds indicated that credit market debt owed by the household sector grew at a 10.4% annual rate last quarter (9.2% y/y) while debt outstanding of the nonfinancial business sector fell (1.8% y/y).
According to the Flow of Funds figures, consumer credit liabilities grew at a 4.9% (5.5% y/y) rate last quarter while mortgage debt grew at a 13.9% (11.5% y/y) rate.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E1/@E103/@E10308/@E10308.HTM">Consumer Credit Outstanding</a></th>
<th scope="col">Oct m/m</th>
<th scope="col">Sept m/m</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>$1.5B</td>
<td>$4.7B</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
<td>10.2%</td>
<td>7.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Revolving</td>
<td>$2.4B</td>
<td>$1.8B</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
<td>11.5%</td>
<td>6.3%</td>
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<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Nonrevolving</td>
<td>$-1.0B</td>
<td>$3.0B</td>
<td>5.8%</td>
<td>8.3%</td>
<td>9.2%</td>
<td>8.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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Nonfarm payrolls were weaker than expected last month, falling 40,000 instead of rising 30,000 as expected by Consensus estimates. Figures for October and September were revised up slightly due to slightly higher estimates of service [...]

Nonfarm Payrolls Fell Unexpectedly

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021205a.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell unexpectedly last week and remained at the lowest level since early last year. Claims in the prior week were revised up slightly.
The latest decline in initial claims may reflect the late timing of the Thanksgiving holiday and the difficulties of seasonal adjustment.The four-week moving average of initial claims dropped to 376,500, down 14.3% y/y.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell a sharp 3.4% to the lowest level since mid-July. The prior week&#39;s sharp increase was revised down. The latest figure is for the week before Thanksgiving. Regardless, the timing of holidays should not affect the seasonal patterns of continuing claims since claimants receive benefits by mail.
The insured rate of unemployment fell to 2.7%, the lowest level since early August, and the prior week&#39;s rate was revised down.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/30/02</th>
<th scope="col">11/23/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>355.0</td>
<td>368.0</td>
<td>-19.7%</td>
<td>405.8</td>
<td>299.8</td>
<td>297.7</td>
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<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>3,486</td>
<td>-2.7%</td>
<td>3,021</td>
<td>2,114</td>
<td>2,186</td>
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Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell unexpectedly last week and remained at the lowest level since early last year. Claims in the prior week were revised up slightly. The latest decline in initial claims may reflect the late [...]

Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Fell Unexpectedly

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021204a.jpg" width="353">
Nonfarm labor productivity last quarter was revised up more than expected. Consensus estimates were for a revision to 4.3%.
A large upward revision to output, following the upward revision to GDP growth, was the source of the upward revision. Output was revised to 5.1% growth from 4.0% (AR). Hours worked were unchanged in 3Q, as reported last month.
Unit Labor costs were revised down, declining for the fourth quarter in the last five. Compensation growth was little changed from the earlier report of strong growth.
Manufacturing sector productivity was revised down slightly to 5.5% (5.8% y/y) from 5.9% . Nevertheless, unit labor costs fell 1.0% (-2.1% y/y), the fifth consecutive quarterly decline.
Productivity in the nonfinancial corporate sector, a figure derived from the income side of the National Income and Product Accounts, grew 5.7% (6.7% y/y). Unit labor costs were unchanged (-2.5% y/y).

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EC/@EC02/@EC02.HTM">Nonfarm Business Sector</a> (SAAR)</th>
<th scope="col">3Q &#39;02 Final</th>
<th scope="col">3Q &#39;02 Prelim.</th>
<th scope="col">2Q &#39;02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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</thead>
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<td class="firstcol">Output per Hour</td>
<td>5.1%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Compensation</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unit Labor Costs</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>-2.2%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
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</tbody>
</table>
ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Firm 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> December 4, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021204b.jpg" width="353">
The Institute for Supply Management business activity index of the nonmanufacturing sector was much stronger than expected last month, rising to the highest level since May. Consensus expectations were for a slight increase to 54.0. 
The overall index has remained above 50, the dividing line for expansion and contraction, since February.
Of the seasonally adjusted subgroups, new orders rose sharply and imports rose slightly, but employment fell. 
The not seasonally adjusted index of prices was unchanged and was down versus the highs of earlier this year. 
During the last five years, there has been a 62% correlation between the level of the NAPM nonmanufacturing index and the three month growth in service sector payrolls.
Business activity for the nonmanufacturing sector is a question separate from the subgroups mentioned above. In contrast, the NAPM manufacturing sector composite index weights the components.
ISM surveys more than 370 purchasing managers in more than 62 industries including construction, law firms, hospitals, government and retailers. The nonmanufacturing survey dates only to July 1997, therefore its seasonal adjustment should be viewed tentatively. 

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF03/@EF03.HTM">ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Business Activity Index</td>
<td>57.4</td>
<td>53.1</td>
<td>49.8</td>
<td>49.0</td>
<td>59.2</td>
<td>59.1</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Factory Inventories Flat Again 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> December 4, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021204c.jpg" width="353">
Manufacturing inventories were unchanged in October after rising September. The initial report for September was of no change. During the last three months, factory inventories have risen 0.3%.
Excluding the transportation sector inventory accumulation has been slightly stronger than for the total - unchanged in October but up 0.7% since June.
Increases in inventories continued to be led by the nondurable goods sector, up 2.6% during the last five months. Gains have been strong for petroleum, textile products, plastics and basic chemicals.
Decumulation in the durable goods sector continued unabated, down 0.2% m/m and 4.5% YTD. Declines have been widespread amongst industries.
Factory shipments rose 1.0% following two months of decline. For the year shipments have risen 3.0%. Gains have been strongest in nondurable goods industries (3.0% YTD), notably petroleum. Less petroleum, nondurable shipments were up 1.2% YTD in October. Prior months&#39; figures were revised down. Shipments of durable goods rose a strong 1.3% in October (3.0% YTD.
Factory orders rose 1.5% following two months of decline led by higher orders for durable goods, up 2.4% and revised from the advance report of a 2.8% gain. The strong 4.5% rise in nondefense capital goods was little revised.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED01/@ED0101/@ED01016/@ED01016.HTM">Inventories</a></th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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</thead>
<tbody>
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<td class="firstcol">Mfg Inventories</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-4.4%</td>
<td>-8.0%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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Nonfarm labor productivity last quarter was revised up more than expected. Consensus estimates were for a revision to 4.3%. A large upward revision to output, following the upward revision to GDP growth, was the source of the upward [...]

Revised Productivity Growth Stronger in 3Q

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021203c.jpg" width="353">
The unemployment rate for the Euro Zone rose to 8.4% in October from 8.3% in September.
Of the countries for which data are available for October, ten recorded an increase in their unemployment rates in the last twelve months. Among them were France which registered an increase from 8.5% to 8.8% and Germany which registered an increase from 7.9% to 8.3%. Only Sweden and Finland registered declines in their unemployment rates-- from 5.1% to 5.0% and from 9.2%. to 9.1% respectively.
Unemployment rates range from a low of 2.6% in Luxembourg to a high of 11.7% in Spain. Some 11.6 million workers are unemployed, an increase of .5 million from a year ago. 

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The unemployment rate for the Euro Zone rose to 8.4% in October from 8.3% in September. Of the countries for which data are available for October, ten recorded an increase in their unemployment rates in the last twelve months. Among [...]

Euro-zone Unemployment Rate Rose

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021203b.jpg" width="353">
Prices for existing homes rose last quarter by the smallest degree in nearly five years. With the exception of a 0.8% gain in 4Q 01, prices have risen between one and three percent each quarter since 1998 according to the government&#39;s Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight.
The data cover only home mortgages repurchased by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and therefore do not cover high priced homes with mortgages over roughly $300,000 (roughly 25% of the market).
The data correct for &quot;mix shifts&quot;, i.e., changes in home quality, size and location.
Prices of existing homes as published by the National Association of Realtors rose 2.3% last quarter. Year to year, the Realtors&#39; price series rose 6.9% versus a 6.2% gain in the Government series. A strong gain in October home prices lifted the Y/Y comparison in the Realtors&#39; price series to 9.8%.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E911/@E911.HTM">House Price Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">3Q 02</th>
<th scope="col">2Q 02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">US Total, Q/Q %</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>8.5%</td>
<td>7.7%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Weekly Chain Store Sales Up 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> December 3, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021203a.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales rose 0.3% last week according to the BTM-UBSW survey. The rise during Thanksgiving week was somewhat less ebullient than earlier reports from individual stores of holiday sales. The gain followed a 0.9% rise in sales the prior week.
Sales for the month of November were down 0.2% from the average level of October. October sales fell 1.5% from September.
Month to month comparisons, and certainly year to year comparisons, are difficult due to the late timing of Thanksgiving this year.
During the last ten years there has been a 48% correlation between the year-to-year percent change in monthly chain store sales and the change in GAF retail sales. That correlation rose to 63% during the last five years.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/30/02</th>
<th scope="col">11/23/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>402.0</td>
<td>400.8</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Challenger Survey Showed Layoffs High in November 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> December 3, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021203d.jpg" width="353">
According to Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas, announced job cuts remained high last month. The level of layoffs did fall 10.5% versus October, but layoffs during that month had more than doubled
The three month moving average of job cut announcements rose again to 134,525. That level was down 39.9% versus the high of late last year.
Lower announced job cuts were notable in the consumer goods, utility, retail, automotive and commodities industries. Layoff announcements rose broadly amongst other industries.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S3/@S301/@S301.HTM">Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Announced Job Cuts</td>
<td>157,508</td>
<td>176,010</td>
<td>-13.2%</td>
<td>1,956,876</td>
<td>613,980</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Slightly Better Than Expected 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> December 3, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021203e.jpg" width="353">
Unit sales of light vehicles rose in November for the first month in three, up a modest 3.8% versus October. Sales were down 10.0% from last November. Sales were better than Consensus expectations for a 15.8M unit sales rate.
Sales through the first eleven months have averaged 16.64 mil. units, down 4% from the first eleven months of 2001.
Sales of domestically built vehicles rose 1.3% m/m following two months of decline. Auto sales rose 4.9% but sales of light trucks fell 1.4%.
Imported vehicle sales rose 14.7%, recouping nearly all of a sharp October decline. Imported auto sales rose 17.1% and truck sales rose 9.9%.
Imports&#39; share of the US light vehicle market surged to 20.9%, the highest monthly share for imports since a record 21.1% share this past January. Imports&#39; share of the US vehicle market year to date has averaged 19.6% versus 17.8% during all of last year. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED09/@ED0901/@ED0901.HTM">Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR, Mil.Units)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>16.04</td>
<td>15.45</td>
<td>-10.0%</td>
<td>17.27</td>
<td>17.40</td>
<td>16.95</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Domestic</td>
<td>12.69</td>
<td>12.53</td>
<td>-12.8%</td>
<td>14.20</td>
<td>14.58</td>
<td>14.47</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Imported</td>
<td>3.35</td>
<td>2.92</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>3.07</td>
<td>2.82</td>
<td>2.48</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Prices for existing homes rose last quarter by the smallest degree in nearly five years. With the exception of a 0.8% gain in 4Q 01, prices have risen between one and three percent each quarter since 1998 according to the government's [...]

Home Price Data Diverge

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021202b.jpg" width="353">
The ISM Composite Index of manufacturing sector activity rose less than expected last month and remained below 50 for the third month. The rise to 49.2 was less than suggested by the Chicago purchasing managers report and other regional reports of November business activity.
The production and inventory sub indexes rose, but new orders, employment and the supplier delivery indexes fell.
The separate index of inflation pressure fell for the third month in four to the lowest level since March. The percentage (NSA) of companies reporting higher prices fell to 18%.
Over the last ten years there has been a 57% correlation between the ISM Composite Index and the change in factory sector industrial production in the next month.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF02/@EF02.HTM">ISM Manufacturing Survey</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Composite Index</td>
<td>49.2</td>
<td>48.5</td>
<td>44.7</td>
<td>43.9</td>
<td>51.6</td>
<td>54.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Prices Paid Index</td>
<td>55.7</td>
<td>58.3</td>
<td>32.0</td>
<td>43.0</td>
<td>64.8</td>
<td>54.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Construction Spending Up 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> December 2, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021202a.jpg" width="353">
The value of construction put in place rose slightly more than expected in October due to higher nonresidential building. Figures for September and August were revised down.
Residential building was unchanged. A huge 1.0% gain in one-unit structures, the second spurt in two months, offset a 3.0% drop in spending on multi unit structures. 
Nonresidential building activity rose for the first monthly gain since April. Spending here was still down 14.2% YTD. The gain was due to widespread increases amongst categories, but spending on industrial and office structures continued down.
Public construction fell. Performance amongst categories was decidedly mixed

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E907/@E90701/@E90701.HTM">Construction Put-in-place</a></th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>8.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Residential</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>5.1%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>7.4%</td>
<td>11.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Nonresidential</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>-2.0%</td>
<td>-16.7%</td>
<td>-3.1%</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Public</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
<td>7.4%</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
<td>10.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The ISM Composite Index of manufacturing sector activity rose less than expected last month and remained below 50 for the third month. The rise to 49.2 was less than suggested by the Chicago purchasing managers report and other [...]

ISM Index Up Slightly

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

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Real GDP eased 0.3% SAAR (+2.1% y/y) during the first quarter of 2025 after increasing 2.4% in Q4’24 and 3.1% in Q3’24. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It was the first decline since Q1 2022.

Foreign trade subtracted 4.83 percentage points from growth last quarter as imports surged 41.3% (13.4% y/y) ahead of tariffs, which began to come into effect in the first quarter. The rise followed a 1.9% decline in Q4’24. Exports rose 1.8% (3.0% y/y) after easing 0.2% in Q4. Inventories added 2.25 percentage points to growth after subtracting 0.84 percentage point from Q4 growth.

Real final sales to domestic purchasers grew 2.3% (2.9% y/y) in Q1 after rising 3.0% in Q4. Personal consumption expenditures rose 1.8% (3.1% y/y) following a 4.0% gain. Durable goods spending fell 3.4% (+5.3% y/y) after surging 12.4% in Q4. Motor vehicle purchases declined 11.1% (+5.5% y/y) after strengthening 19.7% in Q4. Spending on home furnishings & appliances gained 1.5% (6.1% y/y) following a 5.4% rise. Recreational goods & vehicle outlays rose 2.5% (7.0% y/y) last quarter after a 13.9% Q4 increase.

Nondurable goods outlays rose 2.7% (3.0% y/y) following 3.1% growth in Q4. Apparel spending increased 6.7% (2.5% y/y) following a 5.0% rise. Food & beverage buying gained 2.5% (2.3% y/y) after a 1.8% increase. Gasoline & fuel oil purchases increased 4.6% (3.4% y/y) after falling 2.0% in Q4.

Spending on services increased 2.4% last quarter (2.7% y/y) after a 3.0% gain. Outlays on housing & utilities increased 3.4% (1.8% y/y) after rising 1.1% in Q4. Health care expenditures rose 4.0% (4.8% y/y) following a 4.7% strengthening. Transportation outlays increased 5.3% (4.6% y/y) after a 3.7% rise while recreation spending rose 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 4.5% rise. Restaurant & hotel expenditures declined 2.1% (+0.5% y/y) following a 2.8% rise. Financial services expenditures rose 1.9% (2.0% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 increase.

Business fixed investment increased 9.8% (3.6% y/y) following a 3.0% decline in Q4. Expenditures on structures rose 0.4% (-0.4% y/y) after a 2.9% increase. Expenditures on producers’ durable equipment jumped 22.5% (8.0% y/y) after falling 8.7%.  Outlays on information processing equipment soared 69.3% (18.9% y/y) following a 7.3% decline. Industrial equipment investment fell 1.4% (-0.3% y/y) after easing 0.9%. Intellectual property product spending rose 4.1% (1.8% y/y) following a 0.5% decline. 

Residential structures investment increased 1.3% (-0.1% y/y) in Q1 after a 5.5% Q4 rise.

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Government spending fell 1.5% (+2.4% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 rise. Federal government expenditures declined 5.1% (+2.9% y/y) after rising 4.0% in Q4. National defense expenditures declined 8.0% (+4.0% y/y) after increasing 4.8% in Q4. State & local government spending rose 0.8% (2.1% y/y) following a 2.5% rise.

The GDP price index rose 3.7% (2.6% y/y) after increasing 2.3% in Q4. It was the largest increase since Q4’22. A 2.4% increase had been expected. The PCE chain price index increased 3.6% (2.5% y/y) following a 2.4% rise. The PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 3.5% (2.8% y/y) after increasing 2.6% in Q4. The business fixed investment price index rose 0.4% (1.8% y/y) after 1.5% rise. The residential price index strengthened 3.9% (3.2% y/y) after a 1.9% rise while the government price index increased 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 2.1% rise.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Decline in GDP is first in three years.
- Foreign trade subtracts substantially ahead of tariffs.
- Domestic final demand growth weakens.
- Price index strengthens with higher core PCE prices.

U.S. GDP Unexpectedly Declines in Q1’25; Prices Strengthen

Michael J. Moran

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High-side readings on the price indexes for personal consumption expenditures in January and February caused some concern about emerging price pressure, especially with some policies of the Trump administration possibly adding to the upward force. However, March brought notable relief, with the headline price index falling slightly (-0.04%). A marked decline in energy prices was helpful (-2.7%), but core prices also were subdued, increasing less than 0.1%.  Year-over-year changes were still above the Fed’s target of 2%, but only barely so for the headline measure (2.3%). The core index backed away from the reading of 3.0% in February, but the latest reading of 2.7% was in line with observations in the past year, and still uncomfortably above target.

Consumers roused from a winter slumber in March, with nominal outlays increasing 0.7%. With inflation restrained, real outlays also posted a gain of 0.7%. Spending on durable gods stood out, with real outlays advancing 3.2%. Real outlays for both nondurable goods and services rose 0.4%, a solid pace. Signs of life were certainly welcome after an average decline of 0.1% in January and February. The March rebound left growth of 1.8% (annual rate) in the first quarter.

The brisk increase in spending in March was supported by a solid gain in personal income (0.5% in both nominal and real terms). Growth in wage income was firm at 0.5%, while proprietors’ income was robust with a gain of 1.8% (not annualized!). The farm sector led the advance in proprietors’ income, but the nonfarm sector also was strong (0.6%).

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Price pressure eases.
- Spending rebounds after two soft months.

Personal Income, Consumption, and Prices in March

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The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking home sales measure based on contract signings, from the National Association of Realtors rose 6.1% to 76.5 (-0.6% y/y) during March after rising a little-revised 2.1% in February. These changes followed a 4.6% January decline.

The rise in March sales occurred as the rate on a 30-year mortgage eased to an average 6.65% from 6.84% in February. This rate was well above a low of 2.68% averaged in December 2020.

Pending home sales were up in most regions of the country. Sales in the Midwest rose 4.9% (1.4% y/y) last month after rising 1.8% in February. Sales in the South increased 9.8% (-0.4% y/y) following a 5.8% February rise. Sales in the West improved 4.8% (-2.0% y/y) after falling 3.0% in February. Sales in the Northeast were off 0.5% (-3.0% y/y) in March after falling 0.9% in February.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the **WEEKLY** database.

- Sales rise to highest level in four months.
- Strength is evident throughout most of country.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Surge in March

Sandy Batten

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The employment cost index (ECI) for civilian workers, arguably the most accurate measure of labor compensation in the United States, rose 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q1, the same quarterly increase as in last year’s Q4, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The quarterly gains have fluctuated between 0.8% and 1.0% for the past six quarters. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.9% q/q increase and a 3.5% y/y gain.

Wages and salaries for civilian workers rose 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y) in Q1, down from 1.0% q/q in Q4. This tied the Q3 2024 quarterly rise as the smallest increase since Q2 2021. It was also the smallest y/y increase since Q2 2021. Benefits increased by an outsized 1.2% q/q (3.9% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q in Q4. This is the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. In general, employment cost gains remain above the pace observed prior to the pandemic but are slowing gradually.

Private industry workers’ compensation rose 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1, down from 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q4. Wages and salaries for private industry workers increased 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q (3.7% y/y) in Q4. The quarterly gain in Q1 tied that in Q3 2024 as the smallest increase since Q4 2020. Benefits for private industry workers jumped 1.2% q/q (3.6% y/y). the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. The acceleration in benefits in Q1 was primarily in service-producing industries.

Compensation in private goods-producing industries increased 1.0% q/q (3.2% y/y) in Q1, the largest quarterly gain in five quarters, versus a 0.7% q/q increase in Q4. Compensation in construction jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022, up from a 0.6% q/q gain in Q4. Manufacturing compensation growth slowed to 0.7% q/q, its slowest quarterly advance since Q4 2020, from 0.8% q/q in Q4. Compensation in private service-producing industries increased 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y), down slightly from a 0.9% q/q gain in Q4. Compensation in education and health services jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly gain since Q3 2023. In contrast, compensation in other services edged up 0.1% q/q in Q1, its smallest quarterly advance since before the pandemic.

The employment cost index measures the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts across occupations and industries. It is provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is available in Haver’s **USECON** database. Consensus estimates from the Action Economics Forecast Survey are in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Compensation grew 0.9 q/q in Q1, the same pace as in Q4.
- Wage growth slowed to 0.8% q/q while benefits surged 1.2% q/q, their largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022.

Employment Cost Growth Steady in Q1 2025

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 62,000 (1.4% y/y) during April after increasing 147,000 (1.4% y/y) during March, revised from 155,000. A 124,000 April rise in ADP employment had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Growth in median annual pay for "job stayers" eased to 4.5% y/y during April, from 4.6% y/y in March and from 4.7% y/y in the prior two months. Manufacturing sector pay grew 4.6% y/y during April, down from 4.8% y/y in March. Construction sector pay was unchanged at 4.7% y/y. Natural resource & mining sector pay grew 4.4% y/y. Financial sector pay rose 5.1% y/y, while education & health services pay rose 4.7% y/y. Leisure & hospitality pay also increased 4.7% y/y. Professional & business service sector pay increased 4.3% y/y as did trade, transportation & utilities pay. Information pay rose 4.1% y/y. Median annual pay for “job changers” rose 6.9% y/y after 6.7% y/y in March.

Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) rose 11,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 18,000 (0.6% y/y) in March, revised down from 52,000. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499,000 employees) rose 40,000 (1.1% y/y) after rising 43,000 (1.1% y/y). Large business hiring (500+ employees) rose 12,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, after rising 61,000 (3.6% y/y) in March, revised from 59,000.

Goods-producing employment rose 26,000 (1.3% y/y) in April, after rising 16,000 (1.3% y/y) during March, revised from 24,000. Manufacturing jobs rose 4,000 (-0.2% y/y) after rising 17,000 (-0.3% y/y) in March. The number of construction sector jobs rose 16,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, following a 2,000 (3.6% y/y) March increase, revised from 6,000. Natural resources & mining jobs rose 6,000 (2.8% y/y) in April after falling 3,000 (+1.9% y/y) in March.

The number of service-producing jobs rose 34,000 (1.4% y/y) during April, following a rise of 131,000 (1.4% y/y) in March. Professional & business services employment fell 2,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 46,000 (0.7% y/y) in the prior month, revised from 57,000. Employment in the financial industry rose 20,000 (2.1% y/y) in April, after rising 38,000 (2.0% y/y) in March. Leisure and hospitality employment increased 27,000 (3.0% y/y), following a 23,000 (2.9% y/y) March increase, revised from 17,000. The number of education & health care jobs fell 23,000 (1.6% y/y) in April, following a 15,000 (1.8% y/y) rise in March, revised from 12,000. Information sector employment fell 8,000 (-0.1% y/y) after a rise of 3,000 (0.2% y/y) in March. The number of jobs in trade, transportation & utilities rose 21,000 (0.4% y/y) in April, after falling 4,000 (+0.4% y/y) in March, revised from a 6,000 fall. Employment in “other” services rose fell 1,000 (+3.2% y/y) following a 10,000 (3.4% y/y) rise in March, revised from 11,000.

By region, employment in the Northeast increased 10,000 (1.9% y/y) in April, following an increase of 95,000 (2.0% y/y) in March, revised from 89,000. Employment in the Midwest rose 42,000 (1.5% y/y) after a gain of 84,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 81,000. In the South, employment rose 3,000 (1.3% y/y) during April, after rising 10,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 27,000. In the West, employment rose 9,000 (0.6% y/y) after declining 43,000 (+0.6% y/y), revised from a 41,000 decline in March.

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Employment increase is modest in both services & factory sectors.
- Wage growth for “job stayers” moderates.
- Small and medium-sized business employment slows.

Economy in Brief: December 2002

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