Global| Dec 02 2002ISM Index Up Slightly
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The ISM Composite Index of manufacturing sector activity rose less than expected last month and remained below 50 for the third month. The rise to 49.2 was less than suggested by the Chicago purchasing managers report and other [...]
The ISM Composite Index of manufacturing sector activity rose less than expected last month and remained below 50 for the third month. The rise to 49.2 was less than suggested by the Chicago purchasing managers report and other regional reports of November business activity.
The production and inventory sub indexes rose, but new orders, employment and the supplier delivery indexes fell.
The separate index of inflation pressure fell for the third month in four to the lowest level since March. The percentage (NSA) of companies reporting higher prices fell to 18%.
Over the last ten years there has been a 57% correlation between the ISM Composite Index and the change in factory sector industrial production in the next month.
| ISM Manufacturing Survey | Nov | Oct | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composite Index | 49.2 | 48.5 | 44.7 | 43.9 | 51.6 | 54.6 |
| Prices Paid Index | 55.7 | 58.3 | 32.0 | 43.0 | 64.8 | 54.2 |
by Tom Moeller December 2, 2002
The value of construction put in place rose slightly more than expected in October due to higher nonresidential building. Figures for September and August were revised down.
Residential building was unchanged. A huge 1.0% gain in one-unit structures, the second spurt in two months, offset a 3.0% drop in spending on multi unit structures.
Nonresidential building activity rose for the first monthly gain since April. Spending here was still down 14.2% YTD. The gain was due to widespread increases amongst categories, but spending on industrial and office structures continued down.
Public construction fell. Performance amongst categories was decidedly mixed
| Construction Put-in-place | Oct | Sept | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 0.3% | 0.3% | -0.2% | 2.5% | 7.3% | 8.7% |
| Residential | 0.0% | 0.7% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 7.4% | 11.2% |
| Nonresidential | 1.1% | -2.0% | -16.7% | -3.1% | 7.1% | 1.9% |
| Public | -0.3% | 1.6% | 6.4% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 10.6% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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