Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021008a.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales recovered all of the prior week&#39;s loss according to the BTM-UBSW survey. Sales rose 0.8% last week, reversing the 0.8% drop the prior week.
Sales began the month of October 0.6% below the average for September which was down 1.1% from August.
During the last five years there has been a 61% correlation between the year-to-year percent change in monthly chain store sales and the change in GAF retail sales. There has been a 17% correlation between the month-to-month change in the two sales series.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">10/5/02</th>
<th scope="col">9/28/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>404.4</td>
<td>401.0</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
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Chain store sales recovered all of the prior week's loss according to the BTM-UBSW survey. Sales rose 0.8% last week, reversing the 0.8% drop the prior week. Sales began the month of October 0.6% below the average for September which [...]

Chain Store Sales Recover

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021007a.jpg" width="353">
The Weekly Leading Index of the US economy published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) has fallen 4.0% from the weekly peak reached late this past May.
The indicator&#39;s six-month growth rate, perhaps the more important indicator, fell to -0.1%, the first negative reading since December 2001.
Construction of the ECRI Leading Index differs from the Index of Leading Economic Indicators published by the Conference Board. Nevertheless there has been an 80% correlation between the annual percent change in the two over the last 20 years.
The components of the index are money supply plus stock &amp; bond mutual funds, the JOC-ECRI industrial materials price index, mortgage applications, bond quality spreads, stock prices, bond yields, and initial jobless insurance claims.
The median lead of the ECRI index at business cycle peaks has been 10.5 months and at cycle troughs 3.0 months. The sideways movement of the leading index in 2002 may or may not signal something about the economy&#39;s growth rate.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/weekly/@W8/@W801/@W801.HTM">ECRI</a></th>
<th scope="col">9/20/02</th>
<th scope="col">9/13/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Weekly Leading Index</td>
<td>119.0</td>
<td>119.3</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>-5.0%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Consumer Credit Growth Slowed Sharply 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> October 7, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021007b.jpg" width="353">
Consumer credit outstanding rose $4.2B (0.2%) in August, quite a bit less than expected. July figures were revised down slightly due to a lowered figure for nonrevolving credit. So far this year, consumer credit outstanding has risen at a 5.7% annual rate. 
Revolving credit growth, up 0.5%, returned to the monthly rate of growth seen in in the months prior to July&#39;s 0.9% surge. Year to date revolving credit growth was 5.6% (AR).
One-month growth in nonrevolving credit extension, which was virtually unchanged, slowed to its lowest since June 1999. Nonrevolving extension is up 5.7% (AR) YTD.
Nonrevolving credit extension (NSA) was notably weak from finance companies where it fell.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E1/@E103/@E10308/@E10308.HTM">Consumer Credit Outstanding</a></th>
<th scope="col">Aug m/m</th>
<th scope="col">July m/m</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>$4.2B</td>
<td>$10.0B</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
<td>10.2%</td>
<td>7.5%</td>
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<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Revolving</td>
<td>$3.9B</td>
<td>$6.4B</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
<td>11.5%</td>
<td>6.3%</td>
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<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Nonrevolving</td>
<td>$0.2B</td>
<td>$3.7B</td>
<td>8.3%</td>
<td>8.3%</td>
<td>9.2%</td>
<td>8.4%</td>
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The Weekly Leading Index of the US economy published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) has fallen 4.0% from the weekly peak reached late this past May. The indicator's six-month growth rate, perhaps the more important [...]

ECRI Leading Indicators Fell Further

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021004a.jpg" width="353">
Nonfarm payrolls fell unexpectedly last month, down 43,000. It was the first decline in payrolls since April. August&#39;s moderate payroll gain was revised up sharply to 107,000 from 39,000 reported last month. Payrolls are about unchanged YTD.
The length of the workweek rose for the second month, but only back to the June level. As a result, the index of aggregate hours worked (employment times hours worked) rose 0.4% following a 0.3% August gain. The average for 3Q was 0.2% below the 2Q average. That followed no change in 2Q.
Amongst industries, factory sector jobs fell 0.2%, continuing a decline that began in early 1998. The one-month diffusion index rose slightly to a still-depressed 40.4, heralding continued decline in factory jobs. Construction jobs fell 1,000, the second decline in three months. Jobs in service producing industries declined 5,000, the first decline since February. Declines were widespread in the retail, wholesale and transportation industries. Government employment rose 4,000.
The one-month diffusion index for nonfarm payrolls improved slightly to 47.7. The level suggests little or no employment growth near term. The three month diffusion index was 45.0. 
The gain in average hourly earnings was as expected and pulled the y/y gain to its lowest since early 1996.
The unemployment rate fell unexpectedly as a result of a huge 711,000 (0.8% YTD) rise in employment and only a 661,000 (0.7% YTD) rise in the labor force.
The nonfarm payroll employment figures are based on reports provided to the US Labor Department by businesses, while the figures from which the unemployment rate is derived are based on a survey of US households.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EB/@EB01/@EB01.HTM">Employment</a></th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Payroll Employment</td>
<td>-43,000</td>
<td>107,000</td>
<td>-0.7%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
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<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Manufacturing</td>
<td>-35,000</td>
<td>-63,000</td>
<td>-4.5%</td>
<td>-4.2%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
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<td class="firstcol">Average Weekly Hours</td>
<td>34.3</td>
<td>34.1</td>
<td>34.1</td>
<td>34.2</td>
<td>34.4</td>
<td>34.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Average Hourly Earnings</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
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<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
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Nonfarm payrolls fell unexpectedly last month, down 43,000. It was the first decline in payrolls since April. August's moderate payroll gain was revised up sharply to 107,000 from 39,000 reported last month. Payrolls are about [...]

Nonfarm Payrolls Fell in September

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021003c.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were about as expected in the latest week. At 417,000, claims rose 5,000 from the prior week which was revised slightly higher.
The four-week moving average rose slightly to 423,000, up 11.2% from the recent low set in early August.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose another 0.8%, the fourth consecutive weekly rise but the prior week&#39;s levelwas revised down. Continuing claims have risen 5.9% since the weekly low of this past July.
The weekly insured rate of unemployment was stable at 2.9%.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">9/28/02</th>
<th scope="col">9/21/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>417.0</td>
<td>412.0</td>
<td>-20.9%</td>
<td>405.8</td>
<td>299.8</td>
<td>297.7</td>
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<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>3,681</td>
<td>10.0%</td>
<td>3,021</td>
<td>2,114</td>
<td>2,186</td>
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</tbody>
</table>
ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Improved 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> October 3, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021003b.jpg" width="353">
The Institute for Supply Management business activity index of the nonmanufacturing sector improved more than expected last month. Consensus expectations were for a rise to 51.5. 
The overall index has been above 50, the dividing line for expansion and contraction, since February.
Of the seasonally adjusted subgroups, new orders rose but imports and employment fell. 
The not seasonally adjusted index of prices fell for the second month to the lowest level since February. 
During the last five years, there has been a 51% correlation between the level of the NAPM nonmanufacturing index and quarterly growth in real GDP in the service sector.
Business activity for the nonmanufacturing sector is a question separate from the subgroups mentioned above. In contrast, the NAPM manufacturing sector composite index weights the components.
ISM surveys more than 370 purchasing managers in more than 62 industries including construction, law firms, hospitals, government and retailers. The nonmanufacturing survey dates only to July 1997, therefore its seasonal adjustment should be viewed tentatively. 

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF03/@EF03.HTM">ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey</a></th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Business Activity Index</td>
<td>53.9</td>
<td>50.9</td>
<td>49.1</td>
<td>49.0</td>
<td>59.2</td>
<td>59.1</td>
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</tbody>
</table>
Factory Inventory Decumulation Leveled Off 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> October 3, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021003a.jpg" width="353">
Manufacturing inventories were down just slightly in August and during the last three months fell just 0.2%.
Excluding the transportation sector inventories were unchanged and are up 0.2% over the last two months. Transportation sector inventories fell for the sixth month this year.
Inventory decumulation of communications and audio &amp; video equipment continued and the accumulation in July was revised away. Elsewhere durable goods inventories continued to run off. Nondurable goods inventories rose 0.3%, the third consecutive monthly increase. Accumulation of nondurable goods was not broad based, centering in the chemicals and plastics industries. 
Shipments fell 0.6% but for the year have risen 2.5%.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED01/@ED0101/@ED01016/@ED01016.HTM">Inventories</a></th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Mfg Inventories</td>
<td>-0.0%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-7.1%</td>
<td>-8.0%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
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</tbody>
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Initial claims for unemployment insurance were about as expected in the latest week. At 417,000, claims rose 5,000 from the prior week which was revised slightly higher. The four-week moving average rose slightly to 423,000, up 11.2% [...]

Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Tick Up

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021002b.jpg" width="353">
According to Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas, announced job cuts fell sharply in September, more than reversing a large rise in August. The 40.7% m/m decline lowered layoffs to the lowest since late 2000.
Job cut announcements were less than one-third the record level announced last September.
The decline in announced job cuts centered in the retail, services and telecommunications industries. Elsewhere, increases were widespread.
During the last eight years there has been a 36% correlation between the inverse of the y/y change in announced job cuts and growth in payroll employment.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S3/@S301/@S301.HTM">Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas</a></th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
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</thead>
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<td class="firstcol">Announced Job Cuts</td>
<td>70,0577</td>
<td>118,067</td>
<td>-71.8%</td>
<td>1,956,876</td>
<td>613,980</td>
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</tbody>
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U.S. Light Vehicle Sales Down 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> October 2, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021002a.jpg" width="353">
Unit sales of light vehicles fell more than expected last month as 0% financing plans failed to raise sales of domestics. Total vehicle sales fell 12.6% versus August and were down 1.1% YTD.
Sales of domestically built vehicles fell 16.3% m/m, the first decline in four months. Auto and light truck sales fell evenly. Lean auto inventory levels, which as of August were down by a third versus early last year, may have accounted for much of the decline.
Imported vehicle sales rose 5.7% vs. August following a like decline during that month. Auto sales rose 9.5% but truck sales fell for the second consecutive month.
Imports&#39; share of the US light vehicle market surged to 20.6%, the highest level since January.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED09/@ED0901/@ED0901.HTM">Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR, Mil.Units)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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</thead>
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<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>16.33</td>
<td>18.68</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>17.25</td>
<td>17.40</td>
<td>16.95</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Domestic</td>
<td>12.97</td>
<td>15.50</td>
<td>-2.0%</td>
<td>14.18</td>
<td>14.58</td>
<td>14.47</td>
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<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Imported</td>
<td>3.36</td>
<td>3.17</td>
<td>13.7%</td>
<td>3.06</td>
<td>2.82</td>
<td>2.48</td>
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According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, announced job cuts fell sharply in September, more than reversing a large rise in August. The 40.7% m/m decline lowered layoffs to the lowest since late 2000. Job cut announcements were less [...]

Challenger Survey Indicates Layoffs Reversed August Rise

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021001a.jpg" width="353">
The ISM Composite Index of manufacturing sector activity in September fell below 50 for the first time since January. The decline to 49.5 mirrored yesterday&#39;s report from the Chicago purchasing managers. Before that report, Consensus expectations were for a modest rise in the ISM to 51.0. 
Production and employment fell sharply while inventories fell just slightly. The indexes of vendor deliveries and new orders rose slightly.
Inflation pressure rose slightly following a sharp decline in August. The percentage (NSA) of companies reporting higher prices fell for the second month from the peak in July.
Over the last twenty years there has been a 76% correlation between the ISM Composite Index and the three month change in industrial production.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF02/@EF02.HTM">ISM Manufacturing Survey</a></th>
<th scope="col">Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
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</thead>
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<td class="firstcol">Composite Index</td>
<td>49.5</td>
<td>50.5</td>
<td>46.2</td>
<td>43.9</td>
<td>51.6</td>
<td>54.6</td>
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<td class="firstcol">Prices Paid Index</td>
<td>62.5</td>
<td>61.5</td>
<td>36.6</td>
<td>43.0</td>
<td>64.8</td>
<td>54.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Construction Spending Fell in August 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> October 1, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021001b.jpg" width="353">
The value of construction put in place fell modestly, as expected in August. It was the fifth monthly decline in construction spending in the last six months and pulled YTD spending down 1.4%.
Residential building fell for the fourth month in five, but it was still up YTD as a result of large gains early in the year. Single family fell 0.7% (3.2% YTD) following a slight gain in July. 
Nonresidential building activity fell hard for the sixth month this year and was down 13.7% YTD. The decline was again paced by lower industrial and office building.
Spending by governments rose slightly due to broad based increases amongst categories.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E907/@E90701/@E90701.HTM">Construction Put-in-place</a></th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>8.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Residential</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>7.4%</td>
<td>11.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Nonresidential</td>
<td>-2.0%</td>
<td>-2.6%</td>
<td>-18.5%</td>
<td>-3.1%</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Public</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>7.8%</td>
<td>7.4%</td>
<td>5.4%</td>
<td>10.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Chain Store Sales Slide Again 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> October 1, 2002


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/021001c.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales fell sharply for the second consecutive week according to the BTM-UBSW survey. Sales fell 0.8% last week and that followed a 1.7% drop the prior week.
Sales during September, with just two days yet to be tallied, fell 1.1% versus August. August sales were down 0.9% from July.
During the last five years there has been a 61% correlation between the year-to-year percent change in monthly chain store sales and the change in GAF retail sales. There has been a 17% correlation between the month-to-month change in the two sales series.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">9/28/02</th>
<th scope="col">9/21/02</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
<th scope="col">2000</th>
<th scope="col">1999</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>401.0</td>
<td>404.2</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The ISM Composite Index of manufacturing sector activity in September fell below 50 for the first time since January. The decline to 49.5 mirrored yesterday's report from the Chicago purchasing managers. Before that report, Consensus [...]

ISM Index Fell Below 50

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

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Real GDP eased 0.3% SAAR (+2.1% y/y) during the first quarter of 2025 after increasing 2.4% in Q4’24 and 3.1% in Q3’24. A 0.4% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. It was the first decline since Q1 2022.

Foreign trade subtracted 4.83 percentage points from growth last quarter as imports surged 41.3% (13.4% y/y) ahead of tariffs, which began to come into effect in the first quarter. The rise followed a 1.9% decline in Q4’24. Exports rose 1.8% (3.0% y/y) after easing 0.2% in Q4. Inventories added 2.25 percentage points to growth after subtracting 0.84 percentage point from Q4 growth.

Real final sales to domestic purchasers grew 2.3% (2.9% y/y) in Q1 after rising 3.0% in Q4. Personal consumption expenditures rose 1.8% (3.1% y/y) following a 4.0% gain. Durable goods spending fell 3.4% (+5.3% y/y) after surging 12.4% in Q4. Motor vehicle purchases declined 11.1% (+5.5% y/y) after strengthening 19.7% in Q4. Spending on home furnishings & appliances gained 1.5% (6.1% y/y) following a 5.4% rise. Recreational goods & vehicle outlays rose 2.5% (7.0% y/y) last quarter after a 13.9% Q4 increase.

Nondurable goods outlays rose 2.7% (3.0% y/y) following 3.1% growth in Q4. Apparel spending increased 6.7% (2.5% y/y) following a 5.0% rise. Food & beverage buying gained 2.5% (2.3% y/y) after a 1.8% increase. Gasoline & fuel oil purchases increased 4.6% (3.4% y/y) after falling 2.0% in Q4.

Spending on services increased 2.4% last quarter (2.7% y/y) after a 3.0% gain. Outlays on housing & utilities increased 3.4% (1.8% y/y) after rising 1.1% in Q4. Health care expenditures rose 4.0% (4.8% y/y) following a 4.7% strengthening. Transportation outlays increased 5.3% (4.6% y/y) after a 3.7% rise while recreation spending rose 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 4.5% rise. Restaurant & hotel expenditures declined 2.1% (+0.5% y/y) following a 2.8% rise. Financial services expenditures rose 1.9% (2.0% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 increase.

Business fixed investment increased 9.8% (3.6% y/y) following a 3.0% decline in Q4. Expenditures on structures rose 0.4% (-0.4% y/y) after a 2.9% increase. Expenditures on producers’ durable equipment jumped 22.5% (8.0% y/y) after falling 8.7%.  Outlays on information processing equipment soared 69.3% (18.9% y/y) following a 7.3% decline. Industrial equipment investment fell 1.4% (-0.3% y/y) after easing 0.9%. Intellectual property product spending rose 4.1% (1.8% y/y) following a 0.5% decline. 

Residential structures investment increased 1.3% (-0.1% y/y) in Q1 after a 5.5% Q4 rise.

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Government spending fell 1.5% (+2.4% y/y) after a 3.1% Q4 rise. Federal government expenditures declined 5.1% (+2.9% y/y) after rising 4.0% in Q4. National defense expenditures declined 8.0% (+4.0% y/y) after increasing 4.8% in Q4. State & local government spending rose 0.8% (2.1% y/y) following a 2.5% rise.

The GDP price index rose 3.7% (2.6% y/y) after increasing 2.3% in Q4. It was the largest increase since Q4’22. A 2.4% increase had been expected. The PCE chain price index increased 3.6% (2.5% y/y) following a 2.4% rise. The PCE price index excluding food and energy rose 3.5% (2.8% y/y) after increasing 2.6% in Q4. The business fixed investment price index rose 0.4% (1.8% y/y) after 1.5% rise. The residential price index strengthened 3.9% (3.2% y/y) after a 1.9% rise while the government price index increased 4.7% (2.8% y/y) following a 2.1% rise.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Decline in GDP is first in three years.
- Foreign trade subtracts substantially ahead of tariffs.
- Domestic final demand growth weakens.
- Price index strengthens with higher core PCE prices.

U.S. GDP Unexpectedly Declines in Q1’25; Prices Strengthen

Michael J. Moran

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High-side readings on the price indexes for personal consumption expenditures in January and February caused some concern about emerging price pressure, especially with some policies of the Trump administration possibly adding to the upward force. However, March brought notable relief, with the headline price index falling slightly (-0.04%). A marked decline in energy prices was helpful (-2.7%), but core prices also were subdued, increasing less than 0.1%.  Year-over-year changes were still above the Fed’s target of 2%, but only barely so for the headline measure (2.3%). The core index backed away from the reading of 3.0% in February, but the latest reading of 2.7% was in line with observations in the past year, and still uncomfortably above target.

Consumers roused from a winter slumber in March, with nominal outlays increasing 0.7%. With inflation restrained, real outlays also posted a gain of 0.7%. Spending on durable gods stood out, with real outlays advancing 3.2%. Real outlays for both nondurable goods and services rose 0.4%, a solid pace. Signs of life were certainly welcome after an average decline of 0.1% in January and February. The March rebound left growth of 1.8% (annual rate) in the first quarter.

The brisk increase in spending in March was supported by a solid gain in personal income (0.5% in both nominal and real terms). Growth in wage income was firm at 0.5%, while proprietors’ income was robust with a gain of 1.8% (not annualized!). The farm sector led the advance in proprietors’ income, but the nonfarm sector also was strong (0.6%).

The personal income and consumption figures are available in Haver’s **USECON** database with detail in the **USNA** database. The Action Economics forecasts are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Price pressure eases.
- Spending rebounds after two soft months.

Personal Income, Consumption, and Prices in March

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The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking home sales measure based on contract signings, from the National Association of Realtors rose 6.1% to 76.5 (-0.6% y/y) during March after rising a little-revised 2.1% in February. These changes followed a 4.6% January decline.

The rise in March sales occurred as the rate on a 30-year mortgage eased to an average 6.65% from 6.84% in February. This rate was well above a low of 2.68% averaged in December 2020.

Pending home sales were up in most regions of the country. Sales in the Midwest rose 4.9% (1.4% y/y) last month after rising 1.8% in February. Sales in the South increased 9.8% (-0.4% y/y) following a 5.8% February rise. Sales in the West improved 4.8% (-2.0% y/y) after falling 3.0% in February. Sales in the Northeast were off 0.5% (-3.0% y/y) in March after falling 0.9% in February.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the **WEEKLY** database.

- Sales rise to highest level in four months.
- Strength is evident throughout most of country.

U.S. Pending Home Sales Surge in March

Sandy Batten

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The employment cost index (ECI) for civilian workers, arguably the most accurate measure of labor compensation in the United States, rose 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q1, the same quarterly increase as in last year’s Q4, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The quarterly gains have fluctuated between 0.8% and 1.0% for the past six quarters. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a 0.9% q/q increase and a 3.5% y/y gain.

Wages and salaries for civilian workers rose 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y) in Q1, down from 1.0% q/q in Q4. This tied the Q3 2024 quarterly rise as the smallest increase since Q2 2021. It was also the smallest y/y increase since Q2 2021. Benefits increased by an outsized 1.2% q/q (3.9% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q in Q4. This is the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. In general, employment cost gains remain above the pace observed prior to the pandemic but are slowing gradually.

Private industry workers’ compensation rose 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1, down from 0.9% q/q (3.6% y/y) in Q4. Wages and salaries for private industry workers increased 0.8% q/q (3.4% y/y) in Q1 versus 0.8% q/q (3.7% y/y) in Q4. The quarterly gain in Q1 tied that in Q3 2024 as the smallest increase since Q4 2020. Benefits for private industry workers jumped 1.2% q/q (3.6% y/y). the largest quarterly gain since Q2 2022. The acceleration in benefits in Q1 was primarily in service-producing industries.

Compensation in private goods-producing industries increased 1.0% q/q (3.2% y/y) in Q1, the largest quarterly gain in five quarters, versus a 0.7% q/q increase in Q4. Compensation in construction jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022, up from a 0.6% q/q gain in Q4. Manufacturing compensation growth slowed to 0.7% q/q, its slowest quarterly advance since Q4 2020, from 0.8% q/q in Q4. Compensation in private service-producing industries increased 0.8% q/q (3.5% y/y), down slightly from a 0.9% q/q gain in Q4. Compensation in education and health services jumped 1.3% q/q, its largest quarterly gain since Q3 2023. In contrast, compensation in other services edged up 0.1% q/q in Q1, its smallest quarterly advance since before the pandemic.

The employment cost index measures the change in the cost of labor, free from the influence of employment shifts across occupations and industries. It is provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and is available in Haver’s **USECON** database. Consensus estimates from the Action Economics Forecast Survey are in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Compensation grew 0.9 q/q in Q1, the same pace as in Q4.
- Wage growth slowed to 0.8% q/q while benefits surged 1.2% q/q, their largest quarterly increase since Q2 2022.

Employment Cost Growth Steady in Q1 2025

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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The ADP National Employment Report indicated that nonfarm private sector payrolls rose 62,000 (1.4% y/y) during April after increasing 147,000 (1.4% y/y) during March, revised from 155,000. A 124,000 April rise in ADP employment had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.

Growth in median annual pay for "job stayers" eased to 4.5% y/y during April, from 4.6% y/y in March and from 4.7% y/y in the prior two months. Manufacturing sector pay grew 4.6% y/y during April, down from 4.8% y/y in March. Construction sector pay was unchanged at 4.7% y/y. Natural resource & mining sector pay grew 4.4% y/y. Financial sector pay rose 5.1% y/y, while education & health services pay rose 4.7% y/y. Leisure & hospitality pay also increased 4.7% y/y. Professional & business service sector pay increased 4.3% y/y as did trade, transportation & utilities pay. Information pay rose 4.1% y/y. Median annual pay for “job changers” rose 6.9% y/y after 6.7% y/y in March.

Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) rose 11,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 18,000 (0.6% y/y) in March, revised down from 52,000. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499,000 employees) rose 40,000 (1.1% y/y) after rising 43,000 (1.1% y/y). Large business hiring (500+ employees) rose 12,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, after rising 61,000 (3.6% y/y) in March, revised from 59,000.

Goods-producing employment rose 26,000 (1.3% y/y) in April, after rising 16,000 (1.3% y/y) during March, revised from 24,000. Manufacturing jobs rose 4,000 (-0.2% y/y) after rising 17,000 (-0.3% y/y) in March. The number of construction sector jobs rose 16,000 (3.4% y/y) in April, following a 2,000 (3.6% y/y) March increase, revised from 6,000. Natural resources & mining jobs rose 6,000 (2.8% y/y) in April after falling 3,000 (+1.9% y/y) in March.

The number of service-producing jobs rose 34,000 (1.4% y/y) during April, following a rise of 131,000 (1.4% y/y) in March. Professional & business services employment fell 2,000 (0.6% y/y) after rising 46,000 (0.7% y/y) in the prior month, revised from 57,000. Employment in the financial industry rose 20,000 (2.1% y/y) in April, after rising 38,000 (2.0% y/y) in March. Leisure and hospitality employment increased 27,000 (3.0% y/y), following a 23,000 (2.9% y/y) March increase, revised from 17,000. The number of education & health care jobs fell 23,000 (1.6% y/y) in April, following a 15,000 (1.8% y/y) rise in March, revised from 12,000. Information sector employment fell 8,000 (-0.1% y/y) after a rise of 3,000 (0.2% y/y) in March. The number of jobs in trade, transportation & utilities rose 21,000 (0.4% y/y) in April, after falling 4,000 (+0.4% y/y) in March, revised from a 6,000 fall. Employment in “other” services rose fell 1,000 (+3.2% y/y) following a 10,000 (3.4% y/y) rise in March, revised from 11,000.

By region, employment in the Northeast increased 10,000 (1.9% y/y) in April, following an increase of 95,000 (2.0% y/y) in March, revised from 89,000. Employment in the Midwest rose 42,000 (1.5% y/y) after a gain of 84,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 81,000. In the South, employment rose 3,000 (1.3% y/y) during April, after rising 10,000 (1.4% y/y) in March, revised from 27,000. In the West, employment rose 9,000 (0.6% y/y) after declining 43,000 (+0.6% y/y), revised from a 41,000 decline in March.

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Employment increase is modest in both services & factory sectors.
- Wage growth for “job stayers” moderates.
- Small and medium-sized business employment slows.