Global| Oct 03 2002Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Tick Up
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were about as expected in the latest week. At 417,000, claims rose 5,000 from the prior week which was revised slightly higher. The four-week moving average rose slightly to 423,000, up 11.2% [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were about as expected in the latest week. At 417,000, claims rose 5,000 from the prior week which was revised slightly higher.
The four-week moving average rose slightly to 423,000, up 11.2% from the recent low set in early August.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose another 0.8%, the fourth consecutive weekly rise but the prior week's levelwas revised down. Continuing claims have risen 5.9% since the weekly low of this past July.
The weekly insured rate of unemployment was stable at 2.9%.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 9/28/02 | 9/21/02 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 417.0 | 412.0 | -20.9% | 405.8 | 299.8 | 297.7 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,681 | 10.0% | 3,021 | 2,114 | 2,186 |
by Tom Moeller October 3, 2002
The Institute for Supply Management business activity index of the nonmanufacturing sector improved more than expected last month. Consensus expectations were for a rise to 51.5.
The overall index has been above 50, the dividing line for expansion and contraction, since February.
Of the seasonally adjusted subgroups, new orders rose but imports and employment fell.
The not seasonally adjusted index of prices fell for the second month to the lowest level since February.
During the last five years, there has been a 51% correlation between the level of the NAPM nonmanufacturing index and quarterly growth in real GDP in the service sector.
Business activity for the nonmanufacturing sector is a question separate from the subgroups mentioned above. In contrast, the NAPM manufacturing sector composite index weights the components.
ISM surveys more than 370 purchasing managers in more than 62 industries including construction, law firms, hospitals, government and retailers. The nonmanufacturing survey dates only to July 1997, therefore its seasonal adjustment should be viewed tentatively.
| ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey | Sept | Aug | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Activity Index | 53.9 | 50.9 | 49.1 | 49.0 | 59.2 | 59.1 |
by Tom Moeller October 3, 2002
Manufacturing inventories were down just slightly in August and during the last three months fell just 0.2%.
Excluding the transportation sector inventories were unchanged and are up 0.2% over the last two months. Transportation sector inventories fell for the sixth month this year.
Inventory decumulation of communications and audio & video equipment continued and the accumulation in July was revised away. Elsewhere durable goods inventories continued to run off. Nondurable goods inventories rose 0.3%, the third consecutive monthly increase. Accumulation of nondurable goods was not broad based, centering in the chemicals and plastics industries.
Shipments fell 0.6% but for the year have risen 2.5%.
| Inventories | Aug | July | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mfg Inventories | -0.0% | -0.1% | -7.1% | -8.0% | 4.5% | 3.1% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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