Global| Oct 02 2002Challenger Survey Indicates Layoffs Reversed August Rise
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, announced job cuts fell sharply in September, more than reversing a large rise in August. The 40.7% m/m decline lowered layoffs to the lowest since late 2000. Job cut announcements were less [...]
According to Challenger, Gray & Christmas, announced job cuts fell sharply in September, more than reversing a large rise in August. The 40.7% m/m decline lowered layoffs to the lowest since late 2000.
Job cut announcements were less than one-third the record level announced last September.
The decline in announced job cuts centered in the retail, services and telecommunications industries. Elsewhere, increases were widespread.
During the last eight years there has been a 36% correlation between the inverse of the y/y change in announced job cuts and growth in payroll employment.
| Challenger, Gray & Christmas | Sept | Aug | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Announced Job Cuts | 70,0577 | 118,067 | -71.8% | 1,956,876 | 613,980 |
by Tom Moeller October 2, 2002
Unit sales of light vehicles fell more than expected last month as 0% financing plans failed to raise sales of domestics. Total vehicle sales fell 12.6% versus August and were down 1.1% YTD.
Sales of domestically built vehicles fell 16.3% m/m, the first decline in four months. Auto and light truck sales fell evenly. Lean auto inventory levels, which as of August were down by a third versus early last year, may have accounted for much of the decline.
Imported vehicle sales rose 5.7% vs. August following a like decline during that month. Auto sales rose 9.5% but truck sales fell for the second consecutive month.
Imports' share of the US light vehicle market surged to 20.6%, the highest level since January.
| Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR, Mil.Units) | Sept | Aug | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 16.33 | 18.68 | 0.9% | 17.25 | 17.40 | 16.95 |
| Domestic | 12.97 | 15.50 | -2.0% | 14.18 | 14.58 | 14.47 |
| Imported | 3.36 | 3.17 | 13.7% | 3.06 | 2.82 | 2.48 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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