U.S. Pending Home Sales Hold Steady in September as Mortgage Rates Fall
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Sales remain at highest level since March.
- Year-to-year date sales rise modestly.
- Regional changes are mixed.
The Pending Home Sales Index from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) remained unchanged last month (-0.9% y/y) at 74.8 following a 4.2% August increase, revised from 4.0%, after easing an unrevised 0.3% in July. So far in 2025 sales have risen 1.1%, but the index remained 40.2% below its most recent peak of 125.1 in October 2021. The index is a forward-looking measure of home sales based on contract signings.
Steady pending home sales occurred as the average rate on a 30-year mortgage fell to 6.35% in September after declining to 6.59% in August. It has weakened to an average 6.28% so far in October. These rates are down from a high of 7.04% in the third week of January, but remain well above a low of 5.22% in August 2022 and more than double a record low 2.68% in December 2020.
Pending home sales were mixed last month in the four major regions of the country. Pending home sales in the Northeast increased 3.1% (0.5% y/y) after falling 1.1% in August. In the South, sales improved 1.1% (0.9% y/y) after increasing 3.2%. Moving lower, sales in the Midwest declined 3.4% (-1.5% y/y) after rising 8.7% in August. Sales in the West eased 0.2% last month (-5.3% y/y) after a 5.0% August improvement.
The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.
The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's PREALTOR database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the WEEKLY database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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