Economy in Brief: 2003

Unit sales of light vehicles were surprisingly firm in March. Sales rose 4.8% from February and reversed nearly all of that month's m/m decline. Consensus expectations were for a 15.5 mil. unit sales rate. Sales of both light trucks [...]

The Bank of Japan’s most recent quarterly survey of business conditions, the Tankan, is further evidence that the Japanese economy is losing momentum. A key statistic in the survey is the appraisal of actual business conditions [...]

Chain store sales slumped 1.4% last week according to the BTM-UBSW survey. The report indicated that the so called "CNN effect" -- when consumers stay home to watch TV rather than head out to shop -- was instrumental in restraining [...]

The rise in industrial production in Japan which began in early 2002 appears to have stalled. Since last August, the index has ranged from 99.1 to 96.9 (1995=100) and in February was only 97.0. The decline from January to February for [...]

The Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index of Business activity unexpectedly fell below 50 for the first month since October. Consensus estimates were for a reading of 51.5. The decline was similar to the Empire State and Philadelphia Fed [...]

Personal consumption expenditures were flat in February for the second consecutive month. Consensus expectations were for a 0.2% decline. Adjusted for price inflation, PCE fell 0.4% and that followed a 0.2% decline in January. Despite [...]

Initial claims for unemployment insurance last week were lower than Consensus expectations for 420,000. Claims in the prior week were revised up slightly. The 5.9% w/w decline dropped claims to the lowest level since the first week of [...]

Durable goods orders fell about as expected last month. The sharp gain in January orders was revised down significantly. Consensus expectations had been for a 1.0% decline in February orders. The recent volatility in orders has been [...]