Global| Mar 31 2003Chicago Purchasing Agents' Index Down
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Chicago Purchasing Managers Index of Business activity unexpectedly fell below 50 for the first month since October. Consensus estimates were for a reading of 51.5. The decline was similar to the Empire State and Philadelphia Fed [...]
The Chicago Purchasing Manager’s Index of Business activity unexpectedly fell below 50 for the first month since October. Consensus estimates were for a reading of 51.5.
The decline was similar to the Empire State and Philadelphia Fed surveys which both also moved into negative territory in March.
Over the last ten years there has been an 86% correlation between the Chicago PMI and the ISM Composite Index, to be released tomorrow.
The production index fell sharply and was below 50 for the first month since December 2001. New orders also fell sharply but remained above 50. Employment fell and has been below 50 since early 2000.
The prices paid index rose to the highest level since October.
Visit the Chicago Purchasing Managers website at www.napm-chicago.org.
| Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, SA | Mar | Feb | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Business Barometer | 48.4 | 54.9 | 55.2 | 52.7 | 41.4 | 51.8 |
| Prices Paid | 62.8 | 54.9 | 49.8 | 56.9 | 50.4 | 65.6 |
by Tom Moeller March 31, 2003
Using inflation as a target for setting monetary policy recently emerged as an issue in two speeches by Governors of the US Federal Reserve.
At issue is the flexibility of the Central Bank and it comes at a time when inflationary pressure has increased.
The recent speech by Federal Reserve Board Governor Ben S. Bernanke titled "A Perspective on Inflation Targeting" can be found here.
Federal Reserve Board Governor Donald L. Kohn offered these comments titled "Inflation Targeting in the United States?".
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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