Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041005b.jpg" width="353">
The September Business Activity Index for the non-manufacturing sector fell to 56.7 from 58.2 in August, reported the Institute for Supply Management. Consensus expectations had been for a moderate gain to 59.0.
Since the series&#39; inception in 1997 there has been a 55% correlation between the Business Activity Index and the q/q change in GDP services plus construction.
The employment sub index continued to rise, adding 2.1 points to the 2.5 point gain in August. Since the series&#39; inception in 1997 there has been a 60% correlation between the level of the ISM non-manufacturing employment index and the m/m change in payroll employment in the service producing plus the construction industries.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041005a.jpg" width="353">
The new orders index was about unchanged at 58.5 versus 58.6 in August.
The seasonally adjusted prices index fell to 67.1 versus 70.0 in August.
Business Activity Index for the non-manufacturing sector reflects a question separate from the subgroups mentioned above. In contrast, the NAPM manufacturing sector composite index is a weighted average five components.
ISM surveys more than 370 purchasing managers in more than 62 industries including construction, law firms, hospitals, government and retailers. The non-manufacturing survey dates only to July 1997, therefore its seasonal adjustment should be viewed tentatively. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"> <a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF03/@EF03.HTM">ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey</a></th>
<th scope="col">Sep</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">Sep &#39;03</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Business Activity Index</td>
<td>56.7</td>
<td>58.2</td>
<td>61.7</td>
<td>58.1</td>
<td>55.1</td>
<td>48.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Prices Index</td>
<td>67.1</td>
<td>70.0</td>
<td>58.9</td>
<td>56.7</td>
<td>53.9</td>
<td>51.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


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The September Business Activity Index for the non-manufacturing sector fell to 56.7 from 58.2 in August, reported the Institute for Supply Management. Consensus expectations had been for a moderate gain to 59.0. Since the series' [...]

ISM Non-manufacturing Index Down Unexpectedly

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041005b.jpg" width="353">
The September Business Activity Index for the non-manufacturing sector fell to 56.7 from 58.2 in August, reported the Institute for Supply Management. Consensus expectations had been for a moderate gain to 59.0.
Since the series&#39; inception in 1997 there has been a 55% correlation between the Business Activity Index and the q/q change in GDP services plus construction.
The employment sub index continued to rise, adding 2.1 points to the 2.5 point gain in August. Since the series&#39; inception in 1997 there has been a 60% correlation between the level of the ISM non-manufacturing employment index and the m/m change in payroll employment in the service producing plus the construction industries.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041005a.jpg" width="353">
The new orders index was about unchanged at 58.5 versus 58.6 in August.
The seasonally adjusted prices index fell to 67.1 versus 70.0 in August.
Business Activity Index for the non-manufacturing sector reflects a question separate from the subgroups mentioned above. In contrast, the NAPM manufacturing sector composite index is a weighted average five components.
ISM surveys more than 370 purchasing managers in more than 62 industries including construction, law firms, hospitals, government and retailers. The non-manufacturing survey dates only to July 1997, therefore its seasonal adjustment should be viewed tentatively. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"> <a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF03/@EF03.HTM">ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey</a></th>
<th scope="col">Sep</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">Sep &#39;03</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Business Activity Index</td>
<td>56.7</td>
<td>58.2</td>
<td>61.7</td>
<td>58.1</td>
<td>55.1</td>
<td>48.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Prices Index</td>
<td>67.1</td>
<td>70.0</td>
<td>58.9</td>
<td>56.7</td>
<td>53.9</td>
<td>51.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Challenger Layoffs Surged 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> October 5, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041005c.jpg" width="353">
Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas reported that announced job cuts surged 45.5% in September following moderate gains in four of the prior five months. The increase to 107,863 was to the highest level since January.
The three month moving average of job cut announcements rose to 83,862 (+4.2% y/y).
During the last ten years there has been an 86% (inverse) correlation between the three month moving average of announced job cuts and the three month change payroll employment.
Job cut announcements differ from layoffs. Many are achieved through attrition, early retirement or just never occur.
Announced hiring plans in September slipped sharply after having surged in August. The series dates back only to May.
&quot;Why Are We Losing Manufacturing Jobs?&quot; from the federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland can be found <a href="http://www.clevelandfed.org/Research/Com2004/July04.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S3/@S301/@S301.HTM"> Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas</a></th>
<th scope="col">Sep</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Announced Job Cuts</td>
<td>107,863</td>
<td>74,150</td>
<td>41.0%</td>
<td>1,236,426</td>
<td>1,431,052</td>
<td>1,956,876</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Chain Store Sales Rebounded Some 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> October 5, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041005d.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales rebounded a modest 0.3% last week following two weeks of pounding by hurricanes, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS.
Sales began October 0.4% below the September average which fell 0.7% versus August.
During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"> <a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM"> ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">10/02/04</th>
<th scope="col">09/25/04</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>435.0</td>
<td>433.5</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


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Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041004c.jpg" width="353">
The overall volume of retail sales in Europe fell in August, but there were significantly different trends among the individual countries. The 12 country Euro zone showed a decline of 1.34% from July and one of 0.31% from August,2003. Among these countries, Germany and France have shown remarkably different trends, with France generally improving and Germany almost steadily declining as can be seen in the first chart.
The wider EU 25, which includes, besides the Euro Zone 12, Denmark, Sweden, the U. K. and ten Eastern European countries showed a smaller decline in the volume of retail sales in August--0.41%--from July and showed a 1.99% increase over August, 2003.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041004d.jpg" width="353">
The aggregates of the Euro Zone 12 and the EU 25 are preliminary as they are based on those countries that have at least 60% of their total weights available. For the rest of the countries, estimates are made based on forecasting with an ARIMA procedure. These estimates are not published so that the latest data are not available for all the individual countries.
In general, the three Western European countries and the ten Eastern European countries in the EU 25 have shown greater growth in the volume of retail sales since 2001. Since there is no aggregate for these thirteen countries, the best comparison that can be made is that between the Euro Zone 12 and the EU 25 shown in the second chart. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol">EUROSTAT VOLUME OF RETAIL SALES (2000=100)</th>
<th scope="col">Aug 04</th>
<th scope="col">Jul 04</th>
<th scope="col">Aug&nbsp; 03</th>
<th scope="col">M/M &nbsp;%</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y &nbsp;%</th>
<th scope="col">2003 %</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp;2002&nbsp;%</th>
<th scope="col">&nbsp; 2001 %</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Euro Zone 12&nbsp;</td>
<td>101.50</td>
<td>102.88</td>
<td>101.82</td>
<td>-1.34</td>
<td>-0.31</td>
<td>0.27</td>
<td>0.06</td>
<td>1.63</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Germany</td>
<td>97.60</td>
<td>96.50</td>
<td>97.80</td>
<td>1.14</td>
<td>-0.20</td>
<td>-0.31</td>
<td>-2.18</td>
<td>1.13</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">France</td>
<td>107.20</td>
<td>106.70</td>
<td>105.50</td>
<td>0.49</td>
<td>1.61</td>
<td>0.88</td>
<td>1.76</td>
<td>2.58</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Spain</td>
<td>108.03</td>
<td>111.44</td>
<td>109.39</td>
<td>-3.06</td>
<td>-0.93</td>
<td>3.15</td>
<td>1.19</td>
<td>3.77</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td></td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">European Union 25</td>
<td>107.64</td>
<td>108.08</td>
<td>105.54</td>
<td>-0.41</td>
<td>1.99</td>
<td>1.30</td>
<td>1.65</td>
<td>2.53</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">United Kingdom</td>
<td>124.26</td>
<td>123.34</td>
<td>116.11</td>
<td>0.75</td>
<td>7.02</td>
<td>3.04</td>
<td>6.49</td>
<td>5.63</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Poland&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
<td>112.03</td>
<td>111.31</td>
<td>104.99</td>
<td>0.65</td>
<td>6.71</td>
<td>4.47</td>
<td>-1.46</td>
<td>1.68</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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The overall volume of retail sales in Europe fell in August, but there were significantly different trends among the individual countries. The 12 country Euro zone showed a decline of 1.34% from July and one of 0.31% from August,2003. [...]

Diverse Trends in the Volume of Retail Sales Among European Countries

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041004b.jpg" width="353">
Shipments out of the US manufacturing sector surged another 1.1% in August pulling the total 13.4% ahead of last year. Strength has been widespread. Less the volatile transportation sector shipments rose 0.5% (14.1% y/y) after an upwardly revised 1.7% gain in July and less petroleum these shipments rose 12.0% y/y.
Strength in shipments has been notable in primary metals (+37.2% y/y); machinery (+17.9% y/y); and electrical equipment (+10.9% y/y).
Unfilled orders rose a modest 0.3% and the ratio of unfilled orders to shipments fell to an all time low, confirming the indication from the PMI vendor performance measure that supply bottlenecks are few.
Factory inventory accumulation continued in high gear as they rose 0.5% in August after an upwardly revised 1.0% July gain.
Factory orders fell 0.1% in August. Durable goods orders were off 0.3% and that was little revised from the advance report which was dominated by a 35.1% drop in aircraft.Less transportation durable orders rose 2.8% m/m (13.8% y/y). Non-durable goods orders (which equal shipments) rose 0.2% (13.1% y/y) following a 1.3% July spurt.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"> <a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED01/@ED0101/@ED01016/@ED01016.HTM"> Factory Survey</a> (NAICS)</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Inventories</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>-1.8%</td>
<td>-6.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">New Orders</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>12.5%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>-6.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Shipments</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>13.4%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>-2.0%</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unfilled Orders</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>9.3%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>-6.1%</td>
<td>-5.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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Shipments out of the US manufacturing sector surged another 1.1% in August pulling the total 13.4% ahead of last year. Strength has been widespread. Less the volatile transportation sector shipments rose 0.5% (14.1% y/y) after an [...]

US Factory Shipments & Inventories Strong

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041004a.jpg" width="353">
Unit sales of light vehicles rose 5.5% m/m in September to a 17.51M selling rate, just under the year&#39;s high of 17.71M set back in May. Consensus expectations had been for sales of 16.7M.
Sales of light trucks surged 7.7% m/m to the highest level in nearly three years. Domestic light truck sales of 9.0M were 10.8% higher than a year ago but imported light truck sales of 1.1.20M were down 3.6% y/y.
Total auto sales rose a moderate 2.5% m/m with domestics up 2.1% (-5.2% y/y) and imports up 3.5% (-0.5% y/y).
In September imports&#39; share of the US market for new vehicles plummeted to 18.7%, the lowest level this year.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED09/@ED0901/@ED0901.HTM"> Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR, Mil.Units)</a></th>
<th scope="col"> Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>17.51</td>
<td>16.60</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>16.69</td>
<td>16.81</td>
<td>17.26</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Autos</td>
<td>7.33</td>
<td>7.15</td>
<td>-3.9%</td>
<td>7.63</td>
<td>8.07</td>
<td>8.48</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Trucks</td>
<td>10.18</td>
<td>9.45</td>
<td>8.9%</td>
<td>9.06</td>
<td>8.74</td>
<td>8.78</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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Unit sales of light vehicles rose 5.5% m/m in September to a 17.51M selling rate, just under the year's high of 17.71M set back in May. Consensus expectations had been for sales of 16.7M. Sales of light trucks surged 7.7% m/m to the [...]

Stronger Trucks Drove U.S. Light Vehicle Sales

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041004a.jpg" width="353">
Unit sales of light vehicles rose 5.5% m/m in September to a 17.51M selling rate, just under the year&#39;s high of 17.71M set back in May. Consensus expectations had been for sales of 16.7M.
Sales of light trucks surged 7.7% m/m to the highest level in nearly three years. Domestic light truck sales of 9.0M were 10.8% higher than a year ago but imported light truck sales of 1.1.20M were down 3.6% y/y.
Total auto sales rose a moderate 2.5% m/m with domestics up 2.1% (-5.2% y/y) and imports up 3.5% (-0.5% y/y).
In September imports&#39; share of the US market for new vehicles plummeted to 18.7%, the lowest level this year.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED09/@ED0901/@ED0901.HTM"> Light Vehicle Sales (SAAR, Mil.Units)</a></th>
<th scope="col"> Sept</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>17.51</td>
<td>16.60</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>16.69</td>
<td>16.81</td>
<td>17.26</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Autos</td>
<td>7.33</td>
<td>7.15</td>
<td>-3.9%</td>
<td>7.63</td>
<td>8.07</td>
<td>8.48</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Trucks</td>
<td>10.18</td>
<td>9.45</td>
<td>8.9%</td>
<td>9.06</td>
<td>8.74</td>
<td>8.78</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
US Factory Shipments & Inventories Strong 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> October 4, 2004


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041004b.jpg" width="353">
Shipments out of the US manufacturing sector surged another 1.1% in August pulling the total 13.4% ahead of last year. Strength has been widespread. Less the volatile transportation sector shipments rose 0.5% (14.1% y/y) after an upwardly revised 1.7% gain in July and less petroleum these shipments rose 12.0% y/y.
Strength in shipments has been notable in primary metals (+37.2% y/y); machinery (+17.9% y/y); and electrical equipment (+10.9% y/y).
Unfilled orders rose a modest 0.3% and the ratio of unfilled orders to shipments fell to an all time low, confirming the indication from the PMI vendor performance measure that supply bottlenecks are few.
Factory inventory accumulation continued in high gear as they rose 0.5% in August after an upwardly revised 1.0% July gain.
Factory orders fell 0.1% in August. Durable goods orders were off 0.3% and that was little revised from the advance report which was dominated by a 35.1% drop in aircraft.Less transportation durable orders rose 2.8% m/m (13.8% y/y). Non-durable goods orders (which equal shipments) rose 0.2% (13.1% y/y) following a 1.3% July spurt.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"> <a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED01/@ED0101/@ED01016/@ED01016.HTM"> Factory Survey</a> (NAICS)</th>
<th scope="col">Aug</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Inventories</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>-1.8%</td>
<td>-6.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">New Orders</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>12.5%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>-6.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Shipments</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>13.4%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>-2.0%</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unfilled Orders</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>9.3%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>-6.1%</td>
<td>-5.9%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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Carol Stone, CBE

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041001c.jpg" width="353">
Japanese business prospered more in Q3, relative to both the Q2 performance and to their own expectations for Q3. In the Bank of Japan&#39;s huge TANKAN survey (10,312 firms), all size firms in all industries garnered a reading of +2, up from 0 in Q2 and an expectation of -1. The better known &quot;headline series&quot; of large manufacturing firms came in at +26 compared with Q2&#39;s +22 and a forecast of +21. Every broad size category, large, medium and small, as well as the manufacturing/non-manufacturing breakdown, had better readings.
Among individual industries, large firms in lumber, paper, petroleum, building products, iron and steel and shipbuilding all exceeded their Q3 forecasts by more than 10 points. By contrast, large firms in a few industries did fall short of projections, including textiles, some metals and machinery, transportation and business services. The retailing sector remained weak, with negative results in all firm-size groups which were also less than expected.
Some commentators speaking to the press this morning expressed the view that this report might mark a peak for business activity in Japan. They cite the survey&#39;s own forecast of moderation in December, as well as high energy prices and the deliberate policies of restraint in the big neighboring economy, China. It&#39;s possible that the latter two fundamental factors will hold sway in slowing Japanese growth, but the mere fact that the forecast points to slower growth in December should probably be taken cautiously; so far this year businesses&#39; forecasts have underestimated economic gains pretty consistently.
In the Haver databases, we present the TANKAN data two ways. Owing to the restructuring of the survey classification scheme and new sampling last March, we have segregated the recent detail data into new series in the &quot;Japan&quot; database. In summary data in the &quot;G10&quot; database, we link the all industry-all enterprise data with the history that uses the old methodology. This broad aggregate is less affected by the Bank of Japan&#39;s reorganization of the categories. By this special, linked measure, the Q3 result at +2 is the first positive reading since Q1 of 1992, more than 12 years ago.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">Business Conditions:&nbsp; % Favorable minus % Unfavorable</th>
September 2004
June 2004
March 2004
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Actual</td>
<td>Forecast for Dec</td>
<td>Actual</td>
<td>Forecast for Sept</td>
<td>Actual</td>
<td>Forecast for June</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">All Firms</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>0</td>
<td>-1</td>
<td>-5</td>
<td>-6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Large Firms*</td>
<td>19</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>16</td>
<td>16</td>
<td>9</td>
<td>9&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Manufacturing (&quot;Headline Series&quot;)</td>
<td>26</td>
<td>21</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>21</td>
<td>12</td>
<td>12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Non-manufacturing</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>9</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Medium-sized Firms**</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>1</td>
<td>-2</td>
<td>-2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Manufacturing</td>
<td>14</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>11</td>
<td>7</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Non-manufacturing</td>
<td>-2</td>
<td>-2</td>
<td>-1</td>
<td>-3</td>
<td>-7</td>
<td>-6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Small Firms***</td>
<td>-9</td>
<td>-9</td>
<td>-10</td>
<td>-10</td>
<td>-13</td>
<td>-15</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Manufacturing</td>
<td>5</td>
<td>3</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>2</td>
<td>-3</td>
<td>-3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Non-manufacturing</td>
<td>-17</td>
<td>-16</td>
<td>-18</td>
<td>-18</td>
<td>-20</td>
<td>-21</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Japanese business prospered more in Q3, relative to both the Q2 performance and to their own expectations for Q3. In the Bank of Japan's huge TANKAN survey (10,312 firms), all size firms in all industries garnered a reading of +2, up [...]

Japan "TANKAN" Better Than Forecast for Q3

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/041001d.jpg" width="353">
The total value of construction put in place rose a moderate 0.8% in August, twice the Consensus expectation for a 0.4% gain.
Higher private residential building led the gain with a 1.7% spurt. New single family building jumped 2.1% (+21.1% y/y) following two months of modest gain.
Nonresidential building rose 0.8% (+7.7% y/y) led by a 6.5% (-3.4% y/y) jump in education.
Public construction fell and spending on highways &amp; streets, which is nearly one third of the value of public construction spending, fell sharply for the second month in three, -2.9% m/m +2.5% y/y.
These more detailed categories represent the Census Bureau&#146;s reclassification of construction activity into end-use groups. Finer detail is available for many of the categories; for instance, commercial construction is shown for Automotive sales and parking facilities, drugstores, building supply stores, and both commercial warehouses and mini-storage facilities. Note that start dates vary for some seasonally adjusted line items in 2000 and 2002 and that constant-dollar data are no longer computed.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E907/@E90701/@E90701.HTM"> Construction Put-in-place</a></th>
<th scope="col"> Aug</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col"> 2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>10.1%</td>
<td>5.1%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Private</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>12.4%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Residential</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>14.5%</td>
<td>13.1%</td>
<td>8.4%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Nonresidential</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>7.7%</td>
<td>-7.1%</td>
<td>-12.8%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Public</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>7.0%</td>
<td>10.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The total value of construction put in place rose a moderate 0.8% in August, twice the Consensus expectation for a 0.4% gain. Higher private residential building led the gain with a 1.7% spurt. New single family building jumped 2.1% [...]

U.S. Construction Spending Up

Reaccelerating goods price inflation along with sticky services inflation clouds the outlook

Falling oil prices aren't pulling down inflation expectations, pointing to a boost from increased tariffs

Equity market exuberance outpacing macroeconomic data

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters expect further sizable monetary easing

US production rebounded in Q2, but demand continued to slow

US leader, Germany trailer for real GDP growth over past 3 years

Negative US inflation surprises leading G10 down

Deflation continues in China

Incoming data surprising on downside in US; positive surprises elsewhere

FOMC expects more inflation and less growth than in March

With escalation of Israel/Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has recently surged while US trade policy uncertainty has ebbed

Renewed supply chain pressures point to a rebound in global inflation ahead

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary policy easing

Apart from the US, productivity is moribund

Financial market concerns ebb even though policy uncertainty continues to soar

US tariff revenues nearly doubled in April

Even with expected tariff-induced increases in inflation, BCFF forecasters look for a more aggressive round of monetary easing

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

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Mortgage applications eased 0.5% (+21.6% y/y) in the week ending August 22 after falling 1.4% in the prior week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for purchase loans rose 2.2% (24.3% y/y) last week, following a 0.1% gain in the prior week. Applications to refinance a home loan fell 3.5% (+18.6% y/y) last week, following a 3.1% decline in the week of August 15.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan was unchanged at 6.86% in the week ending August 22 for the third straight week. It remained down from a high of 7.28% in the second week of January. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose to 6.22% in the latest week from 6.13% in the week of August 15. Conversely, the rate on 30-year Jumbo loans eased to 6.80% last week from 6.82% one week earlier. The rate on a 5-year ARM fell to 6.19% in the week of August 22 after rising to 6.24% in the prior week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan fell to 45.3% of total applications in the week ending August 22 after easing to 46.1% in the prior week. The share hit a low of 34.6% in the fourth week of May. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity edged lower to 8.40% in the latest week after falling to 8.60% in the week of August 15.

The average size of a mortgage loan fell 1.2% (+2.9% y/y) to $383,000 in the week of August 22, following a 2.7% decline in the prior week. The average size of a purchase loan rose 1.0% (1.5% y/y) to $433,400 in the latest week after rising 0.5% in the week ending August 15. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage fell 5.2% (+4.2% y/y) to $322,200 last week, after falling 7.3% to $339,800 in the prior week. It was increased from a low of $277,900 in the last week of May.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Purchase applications increase while loan refinancing eases.
- Fixed-interest rate on 30-year loan holds at four-month low.
- Average loan size declines again.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Edge Lower in Latest Week as Interest Rates Steady

Robert Brusca

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The GfK consumer climate indicator for Germany slipped in September to -23.6 from -21.7 in August. The slippage brings the index to its weakest level since April 2025 and in fact it's the weakest reading since May 2024 with only two-monthly exceptions.

The components for the GfK index are up to date through August. The economic index in August fell to -7.4, its weakest reading since December 2022. The decline in August was both sharp and deep.  Income expectations backed-off; after a reading of 15.2 in July, the index fell to 4.1 in August and was last weaker in March 2025. The propensity to buy index weakened again for the second month in a row to -10.1 in August from -9.2 in July; it's the weakest reading since February 2025.

**Percentile standings**
The percentile standing for the climate index and its components show climate is still very weak at a 9.7 percentile standing among data back to mid-2002. Economic expectations have a 23.7 percentile standing, the propensity to buy has a 28.8 percentile standing, while income expectations have a 38.8 percentile standing. These count percentiles or queue percentiles however you like to think of them, are all quite weak. The median in terms of this sort of gauge occurs at the 50th percentile reading, so all of these readings are well below their historic medians and data back to mid-2002.

**Consumer confidence – selected other Europe**
Other European confidence measures are up to date through August in France where the INSEE confidence measure slipped to 87 from 88.3 while in the United Kingdom the confidence measure improved to -17 in August from -19 in July. Italy's confidence reading is up to date only through July, and on that timeline, it showed a one-month improvement to 97.2, up from June’s 96.1. Italian confidence has the strongest standing at a 76.8 percentile standing, the U.K. has a 40.3 percentile standing, while France has a 19.8 percentile standing. There's a good deal of variation in how consumers perceive current circumstances. Based on these standings, Germany has the lowest assessment in the its lower 10 percentile, while Italy sees a top 25 percentile standing, the U.K. sees an assessment that's about 10 percentile points below its median, while France is at its 20th percentile closer to the German metric in standing. It's a substantial variation especially since three of these countries are in the European Monetary Union.

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On balance, consumers are concerned about global economic conditions. The tariff situation is in flux and beginning to settle into a hardened pattern. The Russia-Ukraine war is undergoing attempts to stop it, but neither participant seems willing to accept the conditions that the other requires for either a ceasefire or cessation of hostilities. Russia is increasingly looking as if it is beleaguered and under pressure as the U.S. seems to be edging closer to providing more support to Ukraine. Conditions in the Middle East remained as entangled and hostile as ever. Globally inflation continues to hover slightly above central banks’ targets in most places although it does not show much sign of drifting higher or lower as economic conditions continue to be weak. The Federal Reserve appears to be flirting more with the prospects of rate cuts, as the president mounts efforts to try to exert his influence or even outright control over the central bank. This is something that is going to bear some close watching.

Germany

German Climate Stabilizes But Eco-expectations Plunge

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The Conference Board's Index of Consumer Confidence declined 1.3% (-7.8% y/y) to 97.4 in August after increasing 3.7%, revised from 2.1%, in July and falling an unrevised 3.3% in June. An August reading of 96.5 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The index remained 13.7% below its November peak.

The Expectations Index declined 1.6% (-13.3% y/y) this month after rising 8.7% in July, revised from 6.4%, and falling 5.0% in June. The Present Situation index fell 1.2% (-2.5% y/y) after easing 0.2% in July, revised from down 1.1% and falling 1.8% in June.

The percentage of respondents assessing business conditions as “good” rose to 22.0% in August after holding steady at 20.5% in July. The index reached its highest level since October. The percentage assessing conditions as “bad” edged higher to 14.2% after falling to 13.6% in July. The appraisal of labor market conditions eased as 29.7% described “jobs plentiful” versus 29.9% in July. Jobs were viewed as “hard to get” by 20.0% of respondents this month, up from 18.9% in July. This measure has risen from 11.0% in January 2024. The labor market differential calculated by Haver Analytics (the percentage of consumers who think jobs are plentiful minus the percentage who believe that jobs are currently hard to get) fell to 9.7% compared to 11.0% in July and 12.2% in June. This measure remained below a high of 47.1% in March 2022. This series has a 60% correlation with the unemployment rate over the last ten years.

Expectations for business conditions improved this month as an increased 19.5% of respondents expect conditions to improve over the next six months, after 19.0% did so in July, while 21.9% expect them to worsen, after falling to 22.7% in July. On employment, 17.9% expect the number of jobs to increase over the next six months versus 18.0% in July. The percentage expecting the number of jobs to decline in the next six months rose to 26.8% after falling to 25.1% in July. A lessened 18.3% of respondents expect income to increase in six months, down from 18.7% in July. That remained off a high of 20.7% in November and compares to 12.6% who expect income to decrease, up from 11.8% in July.

The expected rate of price inflation over the next twelve months rose to 6.2% in August after falling to 5.7% in July. These remain up from a low of 5.0% in November. Interest rates are expected to rise this year by an increased 54.0% of respondents, and this remained up from a 45.5% November 2024 low. The percentage of respondents expecting equity prices to increase over the next twelve months fell to 47.4%, but remained up from a low of 37.6% in April and the most since January, while the percentage expecting a decline in stock prices rose to 30.3% after declining to 28.1% in July.

The percentage of respondents planning to buy a home held steady at 5.7% this month after falling from 6.1% in June. Plans to purchase an automobile rose to 12.0% this month, up from a low of 10.6% in April.

The Consumer Confidence data are available in Haver’s **CBDB** database. The total indexes, which are indexed to 1985=100, appear in **USECON**, and market expectations are in **AS1REPNA**.

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- Monthly decline is slight, level remains up sharply from April low.
- Expectations and present situation readings decline.
- Inflation expectations rise after falling for two months.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Weakens in August; Inflation Expectations Rise

Sandy Batten

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Durable goods orders fell 2.8% m/m (+3.3% y/y) in July on top of a slightly downwardly revised 9.4% monthly decline in June (previous -9.3% m/m). A 4.0% m/m decline had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Once again, plummeting nondefense aircraft orders were the key factor behind the overall decline in July. Excluding nondefense aircraft orders, the remaining orders rose 0.2% m/m in July after a 0.3% m/m decline in June.

Orders excluding transportation increased by a solid 1.1% m/m (+3.8% y/y) in July following a 0.3% monthly gain in June. The July monthly increase matched the September 2024 gain as the largest in more than two years. Orders for nondefense aircraft plunged 32.7% m/m in July, on top of a 52.7% monthly decline in June. Apart from the plunge in aircraft orders, orders in other major groups posted solid increases. Orders for motor vehicles increased 0.3%, their third consecutive monthly gain. Orders for primary metals jumped 1.5% m/m, the largest monthly gain since April 2024. Fabricated metals orders rose 0.7% m/m after a 0.1% monthly decline in June. Machinery orders soared 1.8% m/m, the largest monthly increase since January. Orders for computers and electronic equipment increased 0.6% m/m. Orders for electrical equipment and appliances jumped 2.0% m/m, the largest increase since last December.

The capital spending data in this report augured a solid beginning for Q3 business spending on equipment. Shipments of core capital goods (nondefense capital goods shipments excluding aircraft) are a reliable coincident indicator of business spending on equipment in the national accounts. They increased 0.7% m/m in July, the largest monthly gain since April 2023, and are up more than 4% annualized in July from the Q2 average. Moreover, core capital goods orders rebounded in July, jumping 1.1% m/m after a 0.6% monthly decline in June.

Total manufacturing shipments increased 0.8% m/m (+1.8% y/y) in July following a 0.6% monthly increase in June. Shipments of durable goods rose a solid 1.4% m/m (+3.6% y/y), the largest monthly gain since May 2023. Excluding shipments of transportation goods, remaining shipments increased 1.0% m/m in July, the largest monthly increase since January 2023. Gains were widespread across major sectors with each one reporting an increase in July. Transportation shipments rose 2.3% m/m, led by a 15.5% monthly jump in shipments of nondefense aircraft and parts. Shipments of computers rose 4.5% m/m, their first monthly gain in three months. Shipments of nondurable goods edged up 0.2% m/m (-0.1% y/y), their third consecutive monthly increase.

Unfilled durable goods orders were unchanged in July from June (+7.0% y/y). Inventories of all manufactured goods increased 0.3% m/m in July (+1.4% y/y), the largest monthly gain since last December. Inventories of durable goods rose 0.3% m/m (+1.8% y/y), their fifth consecutive monthly increase. Motor vehicle inventories jumped 0.8% m/m, their largest monthly increase since October 2023. Aircraft inventories slipped 0.2% m/m, their third consecutive monthly decline. Inventories of nondurable goods increased 0.2% m/m in July (+0.8% y/y), the same monthly gain as in June.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Durable goods orders fell 2.8% m/m in July on top of a 9.4% monthly drop in June.
- Once again, weak nondefense aircraft orders were the key factor; nondefense aircraft orders plunged 33% m/m in July on top of a 53% m/m decline in June.
- In contrast, orders excluding transportation rose a solid 1.1% m/m in July, their largest monthly gain since September 2024.
- Core capital goods orders rebounded, and shipments posted a solid gain.

U.S. Advance Durable Goods Orders Dragged Down Again by Aircraft in July

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U.S. house prices weakened 0.2% (+2.6% y/y) during June after easing 0.1% in May, revised from down 0.2% and falling an unrevised 0.3% in April. The annual increase is well below its recent high of 7.2% in February 2024, according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) House Price Index.

House price changes were mixed across the nine Census divisions of the country. Prices fell 0.8% (+5.0% y/y) in New England and 0.1% (+4.6% y/y) in the East North Central region. Prices were down 1.1% (+0.1% y/y) in the South Atlantic region, 0.4% (+3.1% y/y) in the East South Central region and 0.3% (+1.5% y/y) in the Mountain regions. Prices also eased 0.1% (+0.7% y/y) in the Pacific region, off for the fifth straight month. House price increases were logged in the middle Atlantic region where they rose 1.1% (7.2% y/y). Prices also increased 0.3% (4.3% y/y) in the West North Central region and 0.2% (1.4% y/y) in the West South Central region.

The FHFA house price index is a weighted purchase-only index that measures average price changes in repeat sales of the same property. An associated quarterly index includes refinancing the same kind of properties. The indexes are based on transactions involving conforming conventional mortgages purchased or securitized by Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac. Only mortgage transactions on single-family properties are included. The FHFA data are available in Haver’s USECON database.

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- Prices edge lower for third straight month.
- Annual increase is near two-year low.
- Price changes are uneven amongst regions.

Economy in Brief: 2004

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