Global| Oct 04 2004US Factory Shipments & Inventories Strong
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Shipments out of the US manufacturing sector surged another 1.1% in August pulling the total 13.4% ahead of last year. Strength has been widespread. Less the volatile transportation sector shipments rose 0.5% (14.1% y/y) after an [...]
Shipments out of the US manufacturing sector surged another 1.1% in August pulling the total 13.4% ahead of last year. Strength has been widespread. Less the volatile transportation sector shipments rose 0.5% (14.1% y/y) after an upwardly revised 1.7% gain in July and less petroleum these shipments rose 12.0% y/y.
Strength in shipments has been notable in primary metals (+37.2% y/y); machinery (+17.9% y/y); and electrical equipment (+10.9% y/y).
Unfilled orders rose a modest 0.3% and the ratio of unfilled orders to shipments fell to an all time low, confirming the indication from the PMI vendor performance measure that supply bottlenecks are few.
Factory inventory accumulation continued in high gear as they rose 0.5% in August after an upwardly revised 1.0% July gain.
Factory orders fell 0.1% in August. Durable goods orders were off 0.3% and that was little revised from the advance report which was dominated by a 35.1% drop in aircraft.Less transportation durable orders rose 2.8% m/m (13.8% y/y). Non-durable goods orders (which equal shipments) rose 0.2% (13.1% y/y) following a 1.3% July spurt.
| Factory Survey (NAICS) | Aug | July | Y/Y | 2003 | 2002 | 2001 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | 0.5% | 1.0% | 4.8% | -1.3% | -1.8% | -6.1% |
| New Orders | -0.1% | 1.7% | 12.5% | 3.7% | -1.9% | -6.7% |
| Shipments | 1.1% | 0.9% | 13.4% | 2.6% | -2.0% | -5.4% |
| Unfilled Orders | 0.3% | 1.2% | 9.3% | 4.2% | -6.1% | -5.9% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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