- Index declines for tenth straight month.
- Coincident indicators rise slightly.
- Lagging indicators continue to increase.
USA| Feb 17 2023U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Ease in January
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Feb 17 2023U.S. E-Commerce Sales Slip in Q4'22
- Decline follows four straight quarters of increase.
- Changes in sales are uneven across categories.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
• Import prices decline 0.2% in Jan. (a one-year low in the index level), down for the seventh straight month, led by a 4.9% drop in imported fuel prices. • Excluding fuels, import prices increase 0.3%, up for the second consecutive month. • Export prices beat expectations rising 0.8%, the first m/m gain in seven months, led by a 0.8% rebound in nonag export prices; however, ag export prices ease 0.2%. • Year-over-year import and export price growth rates decelerate in Jan. vs. Dec.; import prices 0.8% vs. 3.0% and export prices 2.3% vs. 4.3%, their lowest since Dec. ’20.
Canada| Feb 17 2023Canada’s Industrial Inflation Backs-off
Canada's PPI in January fell by 0.5%, its second consecutive monthly drop, as it fell by 0.2% in December. Core prices fell by 0.3% in January after rising 0.5% in December. Of course, Canada trades closely with the United States; it shares the business cycle with the U.S. on most occasions, and there's a great deal of trade causing price developments between the two countries to tend to converge.
However, producer prices are showing slightly different trends right now between Canada and the U.S. The U.S. PPI that was recently announced accelerated in January and the U.S. core PPI accelerated as well. Canada's industrial prices have decelerated from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months and Canada's core industrial prices have fluctuated a little bit more, rising 3.6% over 12 months, accelerating to a 3.9% pace over 6 months then decelerating to a slower 2.6% annual rate over 3 months. U.S. headline PPI prices show some tendency to move lower, although the three-month inflation rate picks up compared to the 6-month inflation rate for the headline. The U.S. PPI core shows a considerable pickup in inflation over 3 months compared to 6 months. These features cause the U.S. pattern for prices to look different from the Canadian pattern.
Still, Canadian price inflation shows industrial prices up by 5.4% over 12 months with the core up only 3.6% over 12 months; that's a substantial difference. Core prices in Canada appear to be much better behaved; for gains over 12 months, 6 months and 3 months, the strongest gain over those horizons is the 3.9% gain over 6 months. The 3-month gain is down in a normal range rising at just a 2.6% pace.
Global| Feb 17 2023Charts of the Week (Feb 17, 2023)
The shift toward a soft landing consensus that had been in vogue since the start of this year has suffered some setbacks over the past two weeks. Last week’s strong US jobs data combined with this week’s firmer-than-expected US CPI report have been the principal challenges to that view. Still-hawkish communications in the meantime from a number of central bankers have additionally thrown some salt onto the wounds. Our first two charts this week home in on the recent evolution of consensus growth forecasts for 2023 and how these contrast with high-frequency indicators of economic activity. China’s re-opening is another closely-watched theme at present and we offer some perspectives on this in our third and fourth charts. Then, returning to the US, we contrast indications about recession risks from a couple of indicators in our fifth chart. And finally we make a nod to this week’s UK labour market report and its suggestion that wage pressures could now be easing, in our sixth chart.
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Feb 16 2023U.S. Producer Prices Surprise to Upside in January
- Much larger-than-expected 0.7% m/m increase in the headline index.
- Good prices rebounded sharply; services prices posted same rise as in December.
- Headline and core annual rates fell further to slowest pace since March 2021.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Feb 16 2023U.S. Housing Starts Decline in January
- Single-family and multi-family starts weaken.
- Starts are mixed across the country.
- Building permits are little changed.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Feb 16 2023Philadelphia Fed Factory Index Tumbles in February
- Index plunges to lowest level since 2020.
- New orders, shipments and employment readings weaken.
- Prices paid index remains near recent low.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
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