Economy in Brief

The GfK measure of consumer climate in Germany slipped in July, falling to -25.4 from -24.4 in June. Climate had been improving tracking back to a cycle low in October 2022; from that point onward confidence/climate been steadily, at least in a small way, persistent in improving monthly climate until this month. The climate reading for Germany remains extremely weak with a queue percentile standing (or count percentile standing) in the lower 5% of its historic range of values.

The components for GfK climate lag the headline by a month. Economic climate in June stepped back from a 12.3 reading in May to a 3.7 reading in June. This is the weakest reading since January 2023.

The income reading weakened to -10.6 in June from -8.2 in May, although it was last slightly weaker in April 2023. This was not as sizeable a step back for income expectations as it was for economic expectations.

The propensity to buy, in contrast, improved slightly to -14.6 in June from -16.1 in May. And this measure is stronger than most readings since August 2022, although it was slightly weaker than the reading in April 2023. The propensity to buy has been stuck and a range around -13 to -15 for quite some time. The reading slipped to net negative numbers back in February 2022 and has remained negative ever since.

Other European confidence measures The table also offers consumer or household confidence readings for Italy, France, and the United Kingdom. All three of these countries showed some degree of improvement in confidence in June compared to May, where June is the most up-to-date estimate now available. The estimate for Italy has a standing at its 75.9 percentile France is much weaker at a 14-percentile standing and the U.K. is closer to the French standing at a 26.7 percentile standing. Consumer confidence in Italy has been more robust than France and the U.K. on a ranking basis for some time.