- Payroll gain follows downwardly revised May estimate.
- Earnings growth remains stable.
- Jobless rate eases as household employment rebounds.
USA| Jul 07 2023U.S. Employment Growth Disappoints in June; Earnings Gain Steadies & Unemployment Rate Slips
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Germany| Jul 07 2023German IP Falls by 0.2% in May
German IP fell by 0.2% in May as manufacturing IP rose by 0.2%. Manufacturing and headline IP both show sequential deterioration in play for their annualized rates of growth from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months. Consumer goods and capital goods output both show secular growth rate deterioration while intermediate goods show only a very minor deviation from that same pattern.
Real manufacturing orders and real sales both show more complex patterns.
The IFO headline for manufacturing and the gauge for expectations both show secular improvement from 12-months to 6-months to 3-months. The ZEW current index shows persistent negative readings, but they show progressive improvement. The EU Commission industrial index shows secular deterioration.
Other early European reporters show different results. France and Spain show ongoing sequential improvement in their output trends for IP. Portugal and Norway show sequential deterioration while Sweden shows a mixed pattern.
There are 17 quarter-to-date calculations in the table. Ten of them show negative growth in progress. Overall, German IP, manufacturing IP and real German orders log negative readings for the quarter to date. The ZEW current treading, as well as France and Sweden, log positive readings along with two key German sectors: capital goods and consumer goods.
Nine of 17 queue rankings show standings below their respective 50 percentile, a level that marks the median value for each series. The weakest percentile standings are for the intermediate goods sector for German manufacturing, the two IFO series (that are more upbeat- but from this lower ranking position) and IP in Portugal.
Twelve of 17 measures show weaker conditions in May 2023 that existed in January 2020 before Covid struck.
Global| Jul 07 2023Charts of the Week (July 7, 2023)
Communications from central banks together with firmer-than-expected US labour market data have continued to suggest that monetary policy could remain tighter for longer in the period ahead. This, coupled with disappointing survey evidence this week, has magnified growth concerns in recent days in financial markets. In this week’s charts we focus on the expectations for central bank policy that can be derived from the July Blue Chip Financial Forecasts survey (in chart 1). We then delve into the specifics for Fed policy with a look at the shape of the US yield curve (in chart 2). Next, we shift our attention to inflation matters and specifically the negative surprises that characterise the incoming data from major developed and developing economies (in chart 3). That diminishing inflation threat finds an echo too in the underlying details of this week’s June ISM survey (in chart 4). It finds an echo as well, albeit not as loud, in the latest consumer expectations survey from the ECB (in chart 5) as well as the latest Q2 Tankan survey from Japan (in chart 6).
by:Andrew Cates
|in:Economy in Brief
- Fourth decline in openings in past five months.
- Excess of openings over number unemployed fell to lowest level since September 2021.
- Quits increased while layoffs fell, showing resilience.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jul 06 2023U.S. ISM Services PMI Increases Sharply in June
- Composite index improves to highest level in four months.
- Business activity & employment readings strengthen.
- Prices index continues to decline.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jul 06 2023U.S. Trade Deficit Shrinks in May
- Decline reverses some of prior month’s widening.
- Exports ease but imports fall sharply.
- Goods trade deficit lessens; services surplus increases sharply.
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jul 06 2023Initial Unemployment Claims Remain Elevated
- Claims rose 12,000 but below recent peak in week of June 10.
- Continuing claims fell further to lowest level since February.
- Insured unemployment rate unchanged at 1.2% for tenth straight week.
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
USA| Jul 06 2023U.S. Mortgage Applications Declined in the Latest Week
- Mortgage applications declined in the week ended June 30 after three consecutive weekly increases.
- The effective rates on fixed loans rose in the latest week, while the adjustable rate declined.
- The average loan size declined in the latest week.
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