Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050125a.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales recovered 0.1% of the prior two weeks&#39; declines which had lowered sales 1.5% from the yearend high, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey.
The average of sales in January are 1.5% ahead of December due to strong gains during the Holiday season.
During the last ten years there has been a 58% correlation between y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC jumped 1.1% (-1.5% y/y) in the latest week.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">01/22/05</th>
<th scope="col">01/15/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>444.3</td>
<td>443.9</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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Chain store sales recovered 0.1% of the prior two weeks' declines which had lowered sales 1.5% from the yearend high, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey. The average of sales in January are [...]

Chain Store Sales Ticked Up

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050125a.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales recovered 0.1% of the prior two weeks&#39; declines which had lowered sales 1.5% from the yearend high, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers (ICSC)-UBS survey.
The average of sales in January are 1.5% ahead of December due to strong gains during the Holiday season.
During the last ten years there has been a 58% correlation between y/y change in chain store sales and the change in non-auto retail sales less gasoline, as published by the US Census Department.
The leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC jumped 1.1% (-1.5% y/y) in the latest week.
The ICSC-UBS retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">01/22/05</th>
<th scope="col">01/15/05</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>444.3</td>
<td>443.9</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Consumer Confidence Improved Further 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> January 25, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050125c.jpg" width="353">
The Conference Board&#146;s Index of Consumer Confidence ticked slightly higher in January to 103.4 and added to the upwardly revised 10.1 point surge in December. Consensus expectations had been for a slight backpedaling to 101.3.
The present situation index rose for the third straight month, adding 4.9% (+28.8% y/y) to the 9.8% gain in December. The index of consumer expectations retraced 2.3% (-6.6% y/y) of the 11.6% December pop.
During the last twenty years there has been a 51% correlation between consumer confidence and the y/y change in real consumer spending. The correlation rose to 66% during the last ten years.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050125d.jpg" width="353">
Perceptions of the job market continued to improve in January. Jobs were viewed as hard to get by 24.7% of survey participants, the lowest percentage since August 2002. Jobs were viewed as plentiful by 20.7% of survey participants, the highest also since 2002.
The Conference Board&#146;s survey isconducted by a mailed questionnaire to 5,000 households and about 3,500 typically respond.

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF14/@EF1401/@EF1401.HTM">Conference Board</a></th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Dec</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
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</thead>
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<td class="firstcol">Consumer Confidence</td>
<td>103.4</td>
<td>102.7</td>
<td>5.8%</td>
<td>96.1</td>
<td>79.8</td>
<td>96.6</td>
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</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Existing Home Sales Slip From Record Pace 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> January 25, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050125e.jpg" width="353">
Sales of existing single family homes slipped 3.3% from the record high in November. At 6.69M, the December tally completed a year where sales rose 8.5% versus 2003 which had risen 9.0%. Consensus expectations had been for December sales of 6.80M.
The figures reflect closings of home sales in earlier months.
Sales were mixed m/m across the country&#39;s regions but set records everywhere for the year. In the South sales fell 4.2% (+6.3% y/y) and in the West sales fell 7.2% (+4.0% y/y). In the Midwest sales rose 1.4% (+3.7% y/y) and in the Northeast sales rose 1.4% (+4.2% y/y) after two down months.
The median price of an existing home single family home rose slightly to $188,900 (+8.1% y/y).

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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E9/@E905/@E90501/@E90501.HTM">Existing Home Sales (000, AR)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Dec</th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
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</thead>
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<td class="firstcol">Existing Single-Family</td>
<td>&nbsp;6,690</td>
<td>&nbsp;6,920</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
<td>6,614</td>
<td>6,098</td>
<td>5,593</td>
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Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050125b.jpg" width="353">
Eurostat announced that Industrial new orders for &quot;manufacturing working on orders&quot; in the Euro Zone increased by 1.8% from October to November. The phrase &quot;manufacturing working on orders&quot; refers to the following broad industries: 1.Textiles and textile products, 2.Chemicals and chemical products, 3.Basic metals and fabricated metal products, 4. Machinery and equipment, 5. Electrical and electronic equipment, and 6. Transport Equipment. <img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050124e.jpg" width="353">
Eurostat also publishes an estimate for the EU25, which rose 0.3% in November. Although month to month changes in the two series differ significantly, the trends of two series differ very little as can be seen in the first chart. 
The EU 25, is of course heavily influenced by the Euro Zone plus Sweden, Denmark and the U. K, so it is not strange that its trend is similar to that of the Euro Zone. However, Eurostat also publishes data for some of the individual countries so that one can see that the trend of new orders in the emerging markets of central and eastern Europe have been much stronger than those of the West. For example, the second chart compares the trend in new orders for France and the Czech Republic. By November the trend level of new orders, based on 2000=100, was 196.49 in the Czech Republic and 115.80 in France. In Latvia, the trend level in November, was 220.85; in Lithuania, 296,68 and in Slovakia, 289.48.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol">New Orders Manufacturing working on orders</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 04</th>
<th scope="col">Oct&nbsp;04</th>
<th scope="col">SEP 04</th>
<th scope="col">Nov/Oct %</th>
<th scope="col">Oct/Sep %</th>
<th scope="col">Sep/Aug %&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Aug/Jul %&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Jul/Jun%&nbsp;</th>
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<td class="firstcol">Euro Zone (SA)</td>
<td>108.30</td>
<td>106.40</td>
<td>106.60</td>
<td>1.79</td>
<td>-0.19</td>
<td>1.62</td>
<td>-057</td>
<td>-0.85</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Euro Zone TC</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>107.12</td>
<td>106.44</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>.060</td>
<td>0.36</td>
<td>-.020</td>
<td>-0.92</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">EU 25 SA</td>
<td>107.5</td>
<td>107.19</td>
<td>106.67</td>
<td>.0.29</td>
<td>0.49</td>
<td>0.81</td>
<td>-0.64</td>
<td>-0.05</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">EU 25 TC</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>107.38</td>
<td>106.87</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>0.36</td>
<td>0.19</td>
<td>-0.22</td>
<td>-0.69</td>
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Eurostat announced that Industrial new orders for "manufacturing working on orders" in the Euro Zone increased by 1.8% from October to November. The phrase "manufacturing working on orders" refers to the following broad industries: [...]

New Orders for Manufacturing in Central and Eastern Europe Outpace Those in Western Europe

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050124d.jpg" width="353">
The Weekly Leading Index of the US economy published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose sharply in the latest week due to lower initial jobless claims and rising mortgage applications. Six month growth in the index held at -0.1% versus lows of -1.5% this past Fall.
Past recessions in the US economy were signaled by negative growth in the ECRI Leading Index in the -5 to -10% range. During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the six-month growth in the ECRI leading index of the US economy and two quarter growth in real GDP.
The components of the ECRI weekly leading index are money supply plus stock &amp; bond mutual funds, the JOC-ECRI industrial materials price index, mortgage applications, bond quality spreads, stock prices, bond yields, and initial jobless insurance claims.
The ECRI Leading Index&#39;s recent pattern generally mirrors the Conference Board&#39;s Index of Leading Economic Indicators, with a slight lead. Construction of the ECRI Leading Index differs from the Conference Board Index but there has been a 70% correlation between the y/y percent change in the two series over the last 10 years.
The median lead of the ECRI index at business cycle peaks has been 10.5 months and at cycle troughs 3.0 months.
The latest from ECRI is available <a href="http://www.businesscycle.com/">here</a>.
&quot;Slower Growth&quot; by John H. Makin is an Economic Outlook publication from the American Enterprise Institute and can be found <a href="http://www.aei.org/docLib/20050121_EOfebg.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/weekly/@W8/@W801/@W801.HTM">ECRI Leading Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">01/14/05</th>
<th scope="col">01/07/05</th>
<th scope="col">Growth Rate</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Weekly</td>
<td>133.3</td>
<td>132.2</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>Dec</td>
<td>Nov</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Monthly</td>
<td>133.2</td>
<td>132.5</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
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The Weekly Leading Index of the US economy published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose sharply in the latest week due to lower initial jobless claims and rising mortgage applications. Six month growth in the index [...]

ECRI U.S. Leading Index Higher

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050124b.jpg" width="353">
The Job Openings &amp; Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that the job openings rate fell back in November to 2.4%, the average for 3Q. The job openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings.
The total number of job openings in November fell a sharp 6.3% m/m (+8.5% y/y) and reversed about all of the gains during the prior two months.
The latest hires rate rose sharply to 3.6%, the highest level since early 2001. The hires rate is the number of hires during the month divided by employment.
Job separations rose a hefty 7.9% versus last year but fell slightly m/m to 4.098 million. The separation rate was unchanged at 3.2%. Total separations include quits, layoffs, discharges, and other separations including retirements. The total separations, or turnover, rate is the total number of separations during the month divided by employment.
The survey dates only to December 2000 but has since followed the movement in nonfarm payrolls.
From the U.S. Department of Labor, a description of the Jolts survey and the latest release is available <a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm">here</a>.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050124a.jpg" width="353"><img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050124c.jpg" width="353">

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EB/@EB14/@EB14.HTM">JOLTS</a> (Job Openings &amp; Labor Turnover Survey)</th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Nov &#39;03</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Job Openings Rate: Total</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Hires Rate: Total</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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The Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that the job openings rate fell back in November to 2.4%, the average for 3Q. The job openings rate is the number of job openings on the [...]

JOLTS: Job Openings Down But Hires Up in the US

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050124b.jpg" width="353">
The Job Openings &amp; Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that the job openings rate fell back in November to 2.4%, the average for 3Q. The job openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings.
The total number of job openings in November fell a sharp 6.3% m/m (+8.5% y/y) and reversed about all of the gains during the prior two months.
The latest hires rate rose sharply to 3.6%, the highest level since early 2001. The hires rate is the number of hires during the month divided by employment.
Job separations rose a hefty 7.9% versus last year but fell slightly m/m to 4.098 million. The separation rate was unchanged at 3.2%. Total separations include quits, layoffs, discharges, and other separations including retirements. The total separations, or turnover, rate is the total number of separations during the month divided by employment.
The survey dates only to December 2000 but has since followed the movement in nonfarm payrolls.
From the U.S. Department of Labor, a description of the Jolts survey and the latest release is available <a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm">here</a>.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050124a.jpg" width="353"><img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050124c.jpg" width="353">

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EB/@EB14/@EB14.HTM">JOLTS</a> (Job Openings &amp; Labor Turnover Survey)</th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Nov &#39;03</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
<th scope="col">2001</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Job Openings Rate: Total</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Hires Rate: Total</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
ECRI U.S. Leading Index Higher 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> January 24, 2005


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050124d.jpg" width="353">
The Weekly Leading Index of the US economy published by the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) rose sharply in the latest week due to lower initial jobless claims and rising mortgage applications. Six month growth in the index held at -0.1% versus lows of -1.5% this past Fall.
Past recessions in the US economy were signaled by negative growth in the ECRI Leading Index in the -5 to -10% range. During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the six-month growth in the ECRI leading index of the US economy and two quarter growth in real GDP.
The components of the ECRI weekly leading index are money supply plus stock &amp; bond mutual funds, the JOC-ECRI industrial materials price index, mortgage applications, bond quality spreads, stock prices, bond yields, and initial jobless insurance claims.
The ECRI Leading Index&#39;s recent pattern generally mirrors the Conference Board&#39;s Index of Leading Economic Indicators, with a slight lead. Construction of the ECRI Leading Index differs from the Conference Board Index but there has been a 70% correlation between the y/y percent change in the two series over the last 10 years.
The median lead of the ECRI index at business cycle peaks has been 10.5 months and at cycle troughs 3.0 months.
The latest from ECRI is available <a href="http://www.businesscycle.com/">here</a>.
&quot;Slower Growth&quot; by John H. Makin is an Economic Outlook publication from the American Enterprise Institute and can be found <a href="http://www.aei.org/docLib/20050121_EOfebg.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/weekly/@W8/@W801/@W801.HTM">ECRI Leading Index</a></th>
<th scope="col">01/14/05</th>
<th scope="col">01/07/05</th>
<th scope="col">Growth Rate</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Weekly</td>
<td>133.3</td>
<td>132.2</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>Dec</td>
<td>Nov</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Monthly</td>
<td>133.2</td>
<td>132.5</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
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Carol Stone, CBE

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050121d.jpg" width="353">
French consumer spending stabilized in December after a bounce in November. The November gain contributed to a surge in the 2004 overall result to 4.4% growth over 2003, making it the strongest yearly performance since 1999.
Durable goods, particularly consumer electronics, led the spending surge. Although these outlays fell in December by 0.3%, they still were 11.1% above December 2003 and expanded for 2004 as a whole by 8.5% over 2003. Furniture was the other durable item contributing to the gain; it rose 3.5% in the year, the largest since 1989 and the second largest in the 20-year history of these data. Among nondurable goods, clothing and other textile outlays were up 10.3% in December from a year ago; their yearly total was only 1.6% higher than in 2003, but this was also a relatively strong performance for this particular item. Other nondurable goods were up 2.2%, better than the two prior years, but not especially vigorous for this spending.
The gain in consumer spending over 2004 isn&#39;t easy to explain. Employment in France declined modestly through the third quarter and labor compensation had a tepid rise. Slower inflation might have helped, as indicated in the graph, which shows year-to-year percent changes in consumption of manufactured goods and the CPI for those items. The correlation is rough, but at -52%, this might suggest that the virtual absence of inflation in manufactured goods has helped support consumer demand for them.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
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<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">% Changes</th>
<th scope="col">Dec 2004</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 2004</th>
<th scope="col">Year/Year</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Household Consumption of Manufactured Goods</td>
<td>0.2</td>
<td>1.5</td>
<td>6.6</td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>0.7</td>
<td>0.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Durable Goods</td>
<td>-0.3</td>
<td>3.4</td>
<td>11.1</td>
<td>8.5</td>
<td>0.6</td>
<td>0.4</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Textiles &amp; Leather</td>
<td>3.5</td>
<td>1.3</td>
<td>10.3</td>
<td>1.6</td>
<td>-0.5</td>
<td>0.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Other Mfg Goods</td>
<td>-0.9</td>
<td>0.0</td>
<td>1.2</td>
<td>2.2</td>
<td>1.4</td>
<td>1.7</td>
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French consumer spending stabilized in December after a bounce in November. The November gain contributed to a surge in the 2004 overall result to 4.4% growth over 2003, making it the strongest yearly performance since 1999. Durable [...]

French Consumers' 2004 Spending on Manufactured Goods Strongest in 5 Years

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/050121c.jpg" width="353">
The University of Michigan&#39;s preliminary reading of consumer sentiment in January fell to 95.8 versus Consensus expectations for little change m/m at 97.5. During the last ten years there has been a 74% correlation between the level of consumer sentiment and the y/y change in real PCE.
Consumer expectations slumped 5.0% m/m and reversed nearly all of a 6.7% jump in December. The decline in expectations was to the lowest level since last May.
The reading of current conditions improved for the fourth consecutive month to the highest level since late 2000. During the last ten years there has been an 81% correlation between the current conditions index and y/y growth in payroll employment.
Sentiment amongst families earning less than $50,000 per year reversed most of the surge in December (+5.3% y/y. Consumer sentiment amongst families earning more than $50,000 per year rose moderately (-8.9% y/y).
The University of Michigan survey is not seasonally adjusted.The mid-month survey is based on telephone interviews with 250 households nationwide on personal finances and business and buying conditions. The survey is expanded to a total of 500 interviews at month end.
This 2003 article from the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond examines &quot;<a href="http://www.rich.frb.org/pubs/economic_quarterly/pdfs/fall2003/mehra.pdf">Why Does Consumer Sentiment Predict Household Spending?</a>&quot;

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EF/@EF14/@EF1402/@EF1402.HTM">University of Michigan</a></th>
<th scope="col">Jan</th>
<th scope="col">Dec</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Sentiment</td>
<td>95.8</td>
<td>97.1</td>
<td>-7.7%</td>
<td>95.2</td>
<td>87.6</td>
<td>89.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Current Conditions</td>
<td>110.4</td>
<td>106.7</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>105.6</td>
<td>97.2</td>
<td>97.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Consumer Expectations</td>
<td>86.4</td>
<td>90.0</td>
<td>-13.7%</td>
<td>88.5</td>
<td>81.4</td>
<td>84.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
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The University of Michigan's preliminary reading of consumer sentiment in January fell to 95.8 versus Consensus expectations for little change m/m at 97.5. During the last ten years there has been a 74% correlation between the level [...]

Lower Expectations Dropped U.S. Consumer Sentiment in January

Cost of transporting crude oil has soared to series high

Market-based inflation expectations have not yet reflected recent surge in oil prices

Global equity markets are fearing a major economic disruption from soaring oil prices

Is recent drop in sentiment signaling softer growth ahead?

With the Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has soared to alarming levels

Soaring AI-related investment in US underpinning strong contribution of business spending to overall growth

AI-related outperformance of IP in Advanced Asia ex Japan

Resilient US economy pushing up Blue Chip 2026 outlook

US and China big leaders in adoption of AI models

Robust US demand for advanced technology products

China's export growth rotating away from the US

More pronounced upward revisions in countries more exposed to AI investment

Stable job openings and hiring rates point to cautious hiring

Global freight costs are on the rise while supply chain pressures are contained

Accelerating positive economic surprises in the G10 are boosting the global economy

Considerably more monetary ease expected from US and UK as Japan tightens

Tighter US immigration enforcement adversely impacting labor force

Economic policy uncertainty, while still elevated, is declining

Gradual disinflation and easier monetary policies across advanced economies

Largest October layoffs since 2003, led by technology

Subdued global shipping costs not yet pointing to supply chain problems

PMIs show still-elevated but slowing US inflation

AI boosting US investment in data centers

US productivity growth has been significantly faster than in other major economies

Consumers' short-term US inflation expectations still elevated while longer-term expectations of financial markets are steady

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Andrew Cates

**Global shipping costs**
The Baltic Dirty Tanker Index has surged to multi-year highs, reflecting a sharp tightening in global oil shipping markets. The primary driver is the escalation in Middle East tensions, particularly the effective disruption to flows through the Strait of Hormuz—a critical artery for roughly a fifth of global oil trade. Heightened security risks, including missile and drone attacks on vessels and port infrastructure, have forced rerouting, increased insurance premia and reduced effective tanker supply. At the same time, longer voyage distances—especially for Gulf exports diverted around the Cape—are tying up capacity and amplifying rate pressures. The result is a classic squeeze: constrained supply of available ships meeting elevated demand for transport, pushing freight costs sharply higher.

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**Supply Chain Bottlenecks**
Flash PMI data point to a renewed build-up of supply chain pressures across the major economies. Supplier delivery times—where readings below 50 indicate slower deliveries—have deteriorated in both the US and UK, with the latter showing a particularly sharp decline. The euro area, while more stable, is also drifting in the same direction. This broad-based softening suggests that the disruptions visible in energy and shipping markets are now feeding into the real economy. Longer delivery times are typically an early indicator of tightening supply conditions, rising input costs and, ultimately, renewed pipeline inflation pressures. While not yet at the extremes seen during the pandemic, the direction of travel is clear: supply chains are becoming less efficient just as geopolitical risks intensify.

260401Z2.jpg

**Policy Uncertainty Versus Market Volatility**
A striking divergence is emerging between policy uncertainty and financial market volatility. The US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index has risen sharply, reflecting the intensifying geopolitical backdrop, trade disruptions and an increasingly complex policy environment. By contrast, the VIX—while off its lows—remains relatively contained by historical standards. This gap suggests that financial markets may be underpricing the scale and persistence of current risks. Either uncertainty begins to recede, or market volatility has further to rise. For now, the message is clear: policymakers are operating in a far more uncertain world than markets appear to be discounting.

260401Z3.jpg

**Oil Prices and Monetary Policy** 
The sharp rise in oil prices is once again feeding directly into short-term interest rate expectations, with a strong positive correlation evident between WTI and US 2-year Treasury yields. As energy prices surge, markets are reassessing the near-term inflation outlook and the likely policy response, pushing yields higher. This reflects a familiar dynamic: energy shocks tighten financial conditions not just directly, but via expectations of more restrictive monetary policy. That said, there are important caveats. Medium-term market-based inflation expectations remain relatively well contained, suggesting credibility in central banks’ ability to anchor inflation over time. Moreover, recent communication from Fed Chair Powell indicates that the Federal Reserve is in no immediate hurry to raise rates, pointing instead to a more cautious, data-dependent approach in the face of heightened uncertainty.

260401Z4.jpg

**Loose Labour Markets**
Wage growth across the US, UK and euro area continues to moderate, pointing to a gradual loosening in labour market conditions. The sharp post-pandemic surge in wage pressures—particularly pronounced in the US—has clearly faded, with all three regions now on a downward trajectory. This matters in the current context: while the oil shock is pushing headline inflation higher and complicating the near-term outlook, easing wage dynamics reduce the risk of persistent second-round effects. In turn, this lessens the urgency for central banks to respond aggressively with tighter policy. The result is a more nuanced policy backdrop—one where energy-driven inflation pressures are rising, but underlying domestic cost pressures are moving in the opposite direction.

260401Z5.jpg

**Headline Inflation in Advanced Economies**
Despite the recent energy shock, broader inflation dynamics across advanced economies remain relatively well behaved. The euro area HICP flash estimate rose from 1.9% in February to 2.5% in March, driven largely by higher energy prices. However, core inflation edged down to 2.3% from 2.4%, suggesting that pass-through into underlying price pressures remains limited for now. More generally, inflation across many advanced economies continues to hover close to central bank targets—a marked contrast to the peaks seen in 2022. While higher oil prices will almost certainly continue to lift headline inflation in the near term, and the risk is clearly tilted toward further upside, the broader picture for now remains one of relatively contained underlying pressures. This suggests the current shock is more likely to complicate the disinflation process—potentially slowing or interrupting it—rather than decisively reversing it, though the balance of risks has become less favourable.

260401Z6.jpg

Amid tentative signs of de-escalation from the US administration over the past 48 hours—including suggestions that the conflict with Iran could conclude relatively quickly—financial markets have begun to retrace some of last week’s sharp repricing of Middle East risk. Oil prices have come off their highs, while equities and bonds have rallied as risk premia ease. That said, the earlier phase of the week saw a decisive adjustment: oil surged, front-end yields moved higher, and uncertainty rose as investors grappled with the implications of disrupted energy flows. Even now, the overall adjustment has been uneven—volatility has picked up, but not to levels typically associated with sustained geopolitical stress—raising questions about how fully markets are internalising both the risks and the rapidly shifting outlook. Our charts this week capture these cross-currents. Tanker rates have spiked as shipping routes are disrupted and capacity tightens (chart 1), while PMI delivery times point to early signs of supply chain strain feeding into the real economy (chart 2). At the same time, the divergence between elevated policy uncertainty and relatively contained market volatility suggests there could have been a degree of complacency (chart 3). The rise in oil prices is already feeding into higher short-term yields, though this is being tempered by cooling labour markets, anchored inflation expectations and more cautious central bank signalling (charts 4 and 5). Meanwhile, euro area flash CPI has picked up, but core inflation remains relatively benign, suggesting underlying price pressures are still contained for now (chart 6).

Charts of the Week: Strait Stress

Sandy Batten

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Total retail sales rebounded in February, rising a larger-than-expected 0.6% m/m (+3.7% y/y) following an upwardly revised 0.1% monthly decline in January (previously -0.2% m/m), according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 0.4% monthly increase. Excluding autos, other sales were up 0.5% m/m (+3.6% y/y), the first monthly increase in three months. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a 0.3% m/m increase.

The control group of sales (those categories that the BEA uses to construct PCE in the national accounts) increased 0.5% m/m in February following a 0.2% increase in January. The January/February average for this variable is 2.1% annualized above the Q4 average. In Q4, the control group rose 2.8% saar from Q3. So, today’s figures point to a slight slowdown in PCE growth in the first quarter. Note, however, that the data released today predates the escalation of the conflict between the US/Israel and Iran which has led to a marked rise in gasoline/energy prices. The increase in energy prices to date, if maintained, could stress household finances and thereby significantly slow consumer spending ahead.

Sales of motor vehicles and parts jumped 1.2% m/m in February, their first monthly gain in three months and their largest monthly increase since last July. Furniture sales declined 1.0% m/m in February while sales of electronics and appliances rose 0.5% m/m. Sales of building materials increased 0.4% m/m, their fourth consecutive monthly gain. Sales at health and personal care stores jumped 2.3% m/m, their first monthly gain in five months. Sales at gasoline stations rose 0.9% m/m in February, their third monthly gain in the past four months, ahead of the sharp price increases that occurred in March. Clothing store sales jumped 2.0% m/m, their first monthly increase in three months. Department store sales gained 3.0% m/m, their first monthly increase in four months. Food sales slumped 1.0% m/m in February, their first monthly decline in three months. Sales of nonstore retailers increased 0.7% m/m in February on top of a 1.4% m/m jump in January. Eating out sales rose 0.4% m/m, their first monthly gain in three months.

Retail sales data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.

260401X4.jpg

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- Total sales increased 0.6% m/m after a 0.1% m/m decline in January
- Excluding autos, sales increase 0.5% m/m in February after having been unchanged in January.
- Sales of the retail control group that is used to construct PCE rose 0.5% m/m in February.

U.S. Retail Sales Rebounded in February

Winnie Tapasanun

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U.S. nonfarm private sector payrolls rose a larger-than-expected 62,000 (0.3% y/y) in March after increases of 66,000 in February (+63,000 initially) and 11,000 in January (unrevised), according to the ADP National Employment Report. The three-month average change was +46,000 in March, up from +38,000 in February and +41,000 in January. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a 40,000 increase in March.

Small business hiring (less than 50 employees) climbed a solid 85,000 (0.7% y/y) in March—the ninth straight m/m increase and the largest since August—after a 61,000 gain in February (+60,000 initially), with employment in very small firms (1-19 employees) surging 112,000, the strongest m/m rise since February 2024, and employment in small firms (20-49 employees) down 27,000. Employment at medium-sized firms (50-499 employees) fell 20,000 (-0.4% y/y) in March following a 6,000 decline in February (-7,000 initially) and two consecutive m/m increases. Large business hiring (500+ employees) slipped 4,000 (+1.0% y/y) after an 11,000 February rebound (+10,000 initially).

Service-producing jobs rose 32,000 (0.5% y/y) in March, the 10th straight m/m gain, on top of a 50,000 advance in February (+47,000 initially). March’s rise was led by education & health services (+58,000), followed by information (+16,000), leisure & hospitality (+7,000), financial activities (+4,000), other services (+4,000), and professional & business services (+1,000). To the downside, m/m employment fell in trade, transportation & utilities (-58,000).

Goods-producing employment advanced 30,000 (-0.4% y/y) in March, the biggest m/m increase since October 2022, after a 16,000 rise in February (unrevised). March’s gain was led by construction (+30,000) and natural resources & mining (+11,000), while manufacturing (-11,000) continued to decline.

By region, nonfarm private payroll employment rose m/m in March in the South (+101,000; +0.5% y/y) and West (+16,000; +0.4% y/y). In contrast, employment fell m/m in the Northeast (-29,000; +0.4% y/y) and Midwest (-26,000; -0.1% y/y).

Wage growth for job changers accelerated to a three-month-high 6.6% y/y in March from 6.3% y/y in February, remaining well below a high of 16.1% in April 2022. Wage growth for job stayers held steady at 4.5% y/y for the third consecutive month in March, holding in a narrow 4.4%-4.5% range since April 2025. Pay growth also remained steady in major industries, including financial activities (5.2% y/y), manufacturing (4.9% y/y), construction (4.7% y/y), leisure & hospitality (4.6% y/y), education & health services (4.3% y/y), and professional & business services (4.3% y/y).

The ADP National Employment Report and Pay Insights data can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Historical figures date back to January 2010 for private employment. Pay data date back to October 2020. The expectation figure is available in Haver's **AS1REPNA** database.

260401L35.jpg

260401M35.jpg

- Private payrolls +62K in March, ninth straight m/m gain.
- Hiring increase driven by small businesses (+85K), strongest since August.
- Service-sector jobs up (+32K), led by education & health svs. (+58K) and information (+16K), partly offset by trade, transp. & utilities (-58K).
- Goods-producing jobs up (+30K), driven by construction (+30K).
- Wage growth accelerates y/y for job changers (6.6%, a three-month high) but steady for job stayers (4.5%).

U.S. ADP Private Employment Growth in March Above Forecasts

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Mortgage applications dropped 10.4% w/w (+14.2% y/y) in the week ending March 27, after declining 10.5% w/w (+25.5% y/y) in the week ending March 20, and by 10.9% w/w in the week ending March 13, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. Applications for loans to purchase a house declined 2.6% w/w (+0.8% y/y) in the latest week, after dropping 5.4% w/w (+5.0% y/y) in the week ending March 20.  Applications for loan refinancing plunged 17.3% w/w (+33.2% y/y) in the March 27 week, following a drop of 14.6% w/w (+52.2% y/y) in the week ending March 20, and a decline of 18.5% w/w in the week ending March 13.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose 14bps to 6.76% in the week ending March 27 from 6.62% in the week ending March 20. The rate on the 30-year fixed-rate loan has risen 52bps since the February 27 week. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 5bps to 6.08% in the latest week from 6.03% in the prior week. The 30-year Jumbo rate rose 10bps to 6.71% in the March 27 week from 6.61% in the week ending March 20. The rate on a 5-year ARM dropped 12bps to 5.88% in the latest week from 6.00% in the week ending March 20.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan dropped to 45.3% of total applications in the week of March 27 from 49.6% in the March 20 week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity eased to 8.0% in the week ending March 27 from 8.1% in the week ending March 20.

The average size of a mortgage loan declined 1.3% w/w (-1.9% y/y) to $389,200 in the week ending March 27, after declining 2.4% w/w (-0.9% y/y) to $394,500 in the week ending March 20. The average size of a purchase loan edged down 0.8% w/w (+0.4% y/y) to $449,400 in the latest week, after declining 0.5% w/w (+2.3% y/y) to $453,200 in the March 20 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage declined 5.5% w/w (+0.3% y/y) to $316,600 in the March 27 week following a drop of 6.3% w/w (+1.0% y/y) to $334,900 in the March 20 week. Since the week of February 27, the average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage has declined 21.8%.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Both applications for loans to purchase and for loan refinancing dropped in the latest week.
- Interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans rose 14bps to 6.76% 
- Average loan size declined.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Dropped in the March 27 Week

Robert Brusca

260401E.jpg

The unemployment rate in the European monetary union picked up to 6.2% in February from 6.1% in January, when it had declined from 6.2% in December. The 6.1% reading is the all-time low, so at 6.2% the unemployment rate remains extremely low in the monetary union.

The number of unemployed in February rose by about 1% in both the EU and the monetary union; however, over broader spans of three months, six months, and 12 months, the number of unemployed is still falling.

February is a low month for the number of reporters on the table showing a decline in the unemployment rate. Among the 12 member reporters listed in the table, only Spain had a lower unemployment rate in February than in January, and Spain continues to show declines in unemployment as it also saw its unemployment rate drop in January and December, as well as on balance over three months, six months, and 12 months. Spain is the only country in the monetary union showing this kind of ongoing progress in reducing unemployment.

For the most part, unemployment rates seem to be stuck at relatively low levels among these 12 monetary union reporters. Four show net declines over 12 months, while six show declines over six months and four show declines over three months. Only three—Austria, Finland, and Luxembourg—report unemployment rates that rank above their respective medians, above a ranking of 50% on data back to 2000.

Although the EMU unemployment rate ticked up in February, it remains exceptionally low. Unemployment in Italy also ticked higher and has the exceptionally low ranking of 0.2%, having just moved up from its all-time low. Country-reported unemployment rates are in the bottom 10 percentile of their range over this period in Spain and Greece. You will remember these as the countries with the structurally highest unemployment rates typically in double digits prior to the formation of the European Union; now the Greek unemployment rate is 8.5% and the Spanish unemployment rate is 9.8%, and they are gradually folding into the community norms.

Despite the uptick in the unemployment rate, it's another excellent unemployment report for the monetary union, with unemployment rates below the medians up and down the line with few exceptions and with both countries brandishing unemployment rates that are substantially below their historic medians. Inflation rate in the monetary union remains broadly controlled, and the progress on the unemployment rate has been spectacular. Despite the other problems that the monetary union has encountered, these are true successes of the formation of the monetary union.

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Chain Store Sales Ticked Up

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ECRI U.S. Leading Index Higher

JOLTS: Job Openings Down But Hires Up in the US

JOLTS: Job Openings Down But Hires Up in the US

French Consumers' 2004 Spending on Manufactured Goods Strongest in 5 Years

Lower Expectations Dropped U.S. Consumer Sentiment in January