Economy in Brief: 2019

The ISM manufacturing index increased to 48.3 in October from September's cycle low of 47.8. The Action Economics Forecast Survey anticipated an increase to 49.0. According to the ISM press release, the October reading is consistent [...]

Job growth moderated during October, but a strike at GM accounted for much of the slowdown. Nonfarm payrolls increased 128,000 (1.4% y/y) during October following a 180,000 September gain, revised from 136,000. August's increase also [...]

The employment cost index (ECI) for civilian workers rose 0.7% q/q in 2019 Q3, up from a 0.6% quarterly rise in Q2. This was spot on market expectations from the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The y/y growth of total compensation [...]

China's manufacturing PMI dipped back below 50 in October. The manufacturing PMI has moved to exceptional weakness in 2019. In October, the manufacturing sector is contracting. The chart shows the abject weakness in manufacturing. The [...]

The Chicago Business Barometer fell sharply to 43.2 during October from 47.1 in September. It was the fourth reading in the last five months below the break-even point of 50 and left the index at the lowest level since December 2015. [...]

Consumers remain in a mood to spend. Personal consumption expenditures improved 0.2% (3.9% y/y) during September, the same as in August which was revised from 0.1%. A 0.3% gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast [...]

The employment cost index (ECI) for civilian workers rose 0.7% q/q in 2019 Q3, up from a 0.6% quarterly rise in Q2. This was spot on market expectations from the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The y/y growth of total compensation [...]

Initial claims for unemployment insurance in the week ending October 26 rose 5,000 to 218,000 (-0.5% y/y) from an upwardly revised 213,000 in the previous week (originally 212,000). The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected [...]