Tom Moeller

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914k.jpg" width="353">
Total import prices rose 0.8% last month following an upwardly revised 1.0% increase during July. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.3% increase.
Less petroleum, import prices rose a firm 0.5%, the largest increase since May. Prices for nonoil industrial supplies &amp; materials more than recouped a July decline with a 1.8% (11.4% y/y) surge led by higher prices for paper (7.9% y/y), chemicals (3.4% y/y) and metals (38.6% y/y).
During the last ten years there has been a 66% (negative) correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non oil import prices. The correlation is a lower 47% against a broader basket of currencies and a lower 57% against the real value of the dollar.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914j.jpg" width="353">
Capital goods prices rose 0.1% (-0.3% y/y) for the second month and rose 0.1% (1.9% y/y) excluding computers. Prices for nonauto consumer goods were unchanged (0.7% y/y) though prices for home entertainment equipment fell (-4.5% y/y). 
Prices of petroleum imports jumped 2.3% after the 5.1% spike during July. Brent crude oil prices were about unchanged at $73.40 per barrel in August but have since fallen to $62.48.
Export prices rose 0.4% for the second consecutive month led by a 1.0% increase agricultural (3.5% y/y) and a 0.4% (5.3% y/y) rise in nonagricultural commodities.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E807/@E807.HTM">Import/Export Prices (NSA)</a></th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Import - All Commodities</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>7.5%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Petroleum</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>5.1%</td>
<td>24.3%</td>
<td>37.6%</td>
<td>30.5%</td>
<td>21.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Non-petroleum</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Export- All Commodities</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Total import prices rose 0.8% last month following an upwardly revised 1.0% increase during July. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.3% increase. Less petroleum, import prices rose a firm 0.5%, the largest increase since May. [...]

U.S. Import Prices Strong

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914e.jpg" width="353">
The August U.S. federal government budget deficit of $64.6B was double the July shortfall and deeper than August of last year. The figure compared favorably, however, to Consensus expectations for a $67.0B deficit, elevated due to calendar quirks.
The August shortfall pulled the eleven month fiscal year 2006 deficit to $304.3B, improved versus a deficit of $354.1B for the first eleven months of FY 2005.
The FY&#39;06 budget deficit estimate of $295.8B offered last month by the Office of Management &amp; Budget in its Mid-Session Review looks conservative. During the last several years the Gov&#39;t has run a surplus between $25B and $65B during September.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914f.jpg" width="353">
Net revenues grew 11.7% versus the first eleven months of FY&#39;05. Individual income tax receipts (44% of total receipts) grew 12.4% as withheld taxes rose 7.9%, due to growth in employment, and non-withheld taxes surged 20.8%. Corporate income taxes (13% of total receipts) surged 29.0% as corporate profits grew. Estate &amp; gift taxes increased by 14.2% while social insurance &amp; retirement receipts grew 5.7%.
U.S. net outlays grew 7.6% compared with the first eleven months of FY&#39;05. Defense spending (19% of total outlays) grew 6.0%. Medicare expenditures (12% of outlays) advanced 13.7% and social security spending (21% of outlays) rose 4.7%. Higher interest rates boosted the government&#39;s interest expense by 22.2% y/y to $212.9B so far this fiscal year.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E1/@E106/@E10602/@E106021.HTM">US Government Finance</a> &nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">FY 2005</th>
<th scope="col">FY 2004</th>
<th scope="col">FY 2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Budget Balance</td>
<td>-$64.6B</td>
<td>-$33.2B</td>
<td>-$51.3B (8/05)</td>
<td>-$318.3B</td>
<td>-$412.7B</td>
<td>-$377.6B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Net Revenues</td>
<td>$153.9B</td>
<td>$159.8B</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>14.5%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>-3.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Net Outlays</td>
<td>$218.5B</td>
<td>$213.0B</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>7.8%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>7.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The August U.S. federal government budget deficit of $64.6B was double the July shortfall and deeper than August of last year. The figure compared favorably, however, to Consensus expectations for a $67.0B deficit, elevated due to [...]

U.S. Budget Deficit Deteriorated As Expected

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914c.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for jobless insurance fell 5,000 last week to 308,000, repeating a slightly revised decline during the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 315,000 claims and filings were at the lowest level in nearly two months.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914d.jpg" width="353">
The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 314,250 (-8.8% y/y), the lowest level in one month.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 18,000 following a downwardly revised 4,000 increase during the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment was steady at 1.9% where it has been since February.
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich Addresses Terrorist Threats from the American Enterprise Institute can be found <a href="http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.24895,filter.all/pub_detail.asp"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">9/09/06</th>
<th scope="col">9/02/06</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>308</td>
<td>313</td>
<td>-26.5%</td>
<td>332</td>
<td>343</td>
<td>403</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,499</td>
<td>-3.4%</td>
<td>2,662</td>
<td>2,924</td>
<td>3,532</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Initial claims for jobless insurance fell 5,000 last week to 308,000, repeating a slightly revised decline during the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 315,000 claims and filings were at the lowest level in nearly two [...]

Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Fell Unexpectedly

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>

 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914b.jpg" width="353">
In August, US retail sales rose a modest 0.2% following an unrevised July gain of 1.4%. Consensus expectations had been or a slight 0.1% decline.
Sales by motor vehicle &amp; parts dealers rose 0.4% (3.7% y/y) after a 4.3% surge in July.Behind the modest m/m gain was a 6.5% decline in unit vehicle sales to 16.06M, the lowest sales rate this year.
Excluding autos, retail sales also rose just 0.2% after a downwardly revised 0.6% July increase. Consensus expectations had been for nonauto retail sales to rise 0.3% last month.
Sales at gasoline stations also fell a hard 1.0% (+11.0% y/y) as gasoline prices fell during August 1.0% m/m to an average $2.95 per gallon. Gasoline prices have since fallen further to $2.62 per gallon last week.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914a.jpg" width="353">
Less gasoline, nonauto retail sales rose 0.4% (7.0% y/y) after a downwardly revised 0.5% August increase.
Sales of discretionary items were moderate last month. Furniture, electronics &amp; appliances slipped 0.1% (+5.9% y/y) after July gain of 0.3% that was revised down from 1.2% reported initially. General merchandise stores rose 0.4% (4.9% y/y), better than the little-revised 0.2% July increase but apparel store sales fell 0.3% (+6.6% y/y). Sales of nonstore retailers (internet &amp; catalogue) rose 0.3% (12.5% y/y) after a little revised 2.1% July spike.
Building material sales increased 0.1% (8.2% y/y) after a 0.3% July gain that was revised down from 1.9% in the initial report.
Survey Says Families Are Digging Deeper into Debt from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available <a href="http://stlouisfed.org/publications/re/2006/c/pages/digging.html"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/usecon/@ED/@ED04/@ED0401/@ED0401.HTM">Retail Sales &amp; Food Services</a></td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Excluding Autos</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>7.5%</td>
<td>8.2%</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

In August, US retail sales rose a modest 0.2% following an unrevised July gain of 1.4%. Consensus expectations had been or a slight 0.1% decline. Sales by motor vehicle & parts dealers rose 0.4% (3.7% y/y) after a 4.3% surge in [...]

U.S. Retail Sales Gain Light; Gasoline Prices Fell

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>

 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914b.jpg" width="353">
In August, US retail sales rose a modest 0.2% following an unrevised July gain of 1.4%. Consensus expectations had been or a slight 0.1% decline.
Sales by motor vehicle &amp; parts dealers rose 0.4% (3.7% y/y) after a 4.3% surge in July.Behind the modest m/m gain was a 6.5% decline in unit vehicle sales to 16.06M, the lowest sales rate this year.
Excluding autos, retail sales also rose just 0.2% after a downwardly revised 0.6% July increase. Consensus expectations had been for nonauto retail sales to rise 0.3% last month.
Sales at gasoline stations also fell a hard 1.0% (+11.0% y/y) as gasoline prices fell during August 1.0% m/m to an average $2.95 per gallon. Gasoline prices have since fallen further to $2.62 per gallon last week.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914a.jpg" width="353">
Less gasoline, nonauto retail sales rose 0.4% (7.0% y/y) after a downwardly revised 0.5% August increase.
Sales of discretionary items were moderate last month. Furniture, electronics &amp; appliances slipped 0.1% (+5.9% y/y) after July gain of 0.3% that was revised down from 1.2% reported initially. General merchandise stores rose 0.4% (4.9% y/y), better than the little-revised 0.2% July increase but apparel store sales fell 0.3% (+6.6% y/y). Sales of nonstore retailers (internet &amp; catalogue) rose 0.3% (12.5% y/y) after a little revised 2.1% July spike.
Building material sales increased 0.1% (8.2% y/y) after a 0.3% July gain that was revised down from 1.9% in the initial report.
Survey Says Families Are Digging Deeper into Debt from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis is available <a href="http://stlouisfed.org/publications/re/2006/c/pages/digging.html"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/usecon/@ED/@ED04/@ED0401/@ED0401.HTM">Retail Sales &amp; Food Services</a></td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Excluding Autos</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>7.5%</td>
<td>8.2%</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Fell Unexpectedly 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> September 14, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914c.jpg" width="353">
Initial claims for jobless insurance fell 5,000 last week to 308,000, repeating a slightly revised decline during the prior week. Consensus expectations had been for 315,000 claims and filings were at the lowest level in nearly two months.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914d.jpg" width="353">
The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 314,250 (-8.8% y/y), the lowest level in one month.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 18,000 following a downwardly revised 4,000 increase during the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment was steady at 1.9% where it has been since February.
Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich Addresses Terrorist Threats from the American Enterprise Institute can be found <a href="http://www.aei.org/publications/pubID.24895,filter.all/pub_detail.asp"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></th>
<th scope="col">9/09/06</th>
<th scope="col">9/02/06</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>308</td>
<td>313</td>
<td>-26.5%</td>
<td>332</td>
<td>343</td>
<td>403</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>2,499</td>
<td>-3.4%</td>
<td>2,662</td>
<td>2,924</td>
<td>3,532</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Budget Deficit Deteriorated As Expected 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> September 14, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914e.jpg" width="353">
The August U.S. federal government budget deficit of $64.6B was double the July shortfall and deeper than August of last year. The figure compared favorably, however, to Consensus expectations for a $67.0B deficit, elevated due to calendar quirks.
The August shortfall pulled the eleven month fiscal year 2006 deficit to $304.3B, improved versus a deficit of $354.1B for the first eleven months of FY 2005.
The FY&#39;06 budget deficit estimate of $295.8B offered last month by the Office of Management &amp; Budget in its Mid-Session Review looks conservative. During the last several years the Gov&#39;t has run a surplus between $25B and $65B during September.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914f.jpg" width="353">
Net revenues grew 11.7% versus the first eleven months of FY&#39;05. Individual income tax receipts (44% of total receipts) grew 12.4% as withheld taxes rose 7.9%, due to growth in employment, and non-withheld taxes surged 20.8%. Corporate income taxes (13% of total receipts) surged 29.0% as corporate profits grew. Estate &amp; gift taxes increased by 14.2% while social insurance &amp; retirement receipts grew 5.7%.
U.S. net outlays grew 7.6% compared with the first eleven months of FY&#39;05. Defense spending (19% of total outlays) grew 6.0%. Medicare expenditures (12% of outlays) advanced 13.7% and social security spending (21% of outlays) rose 4.7%. Higher interest rates boosted the government&#39;s interest expense by 22.2% y/y to $212.9B so far this fiscal year.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E1/@E106/@E10602/@E106021.HTM">US Government Finance</a> &nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">FY 2005</th>
<th scope="col">FY 2004</th>
<th scope="col">FY 2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Budget Balance</td>
<td>-$64.6B</td>
<td>-$33.2B</td>
<td>-$51.3B (8/05)</td>
<td>-$318.3B</td>
<td>-$412.7B</td>
<td>-$377.6B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Net Revenues</td>
<td>$153.9B</td>
<td>$159.8B</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>14.5%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>-3.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Net Outlays</td>
<td>$218.5B</td>
<td>$213.0B</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>7.8%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>7.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Import Prices Strong 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> September 14, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914k.jpg" width="353">
Total import prices rose 0.8% last month following an upwardly revised 1.0% increase during July. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.3% increase.
Less petroleum, import prices rose a firm 0.5%, the largest increase since May. Prices for nonoil industrial supplies &amp; materials more than recouped a July decline with a 1.8% (11.4% y/y) surge led by higher prices for paper (7.9% y/y), chemicals (3.4% y/y) and metals (38.6% y/y).
During the last ten years there has been a 66% (negative) correlation between the nominal trade-weighted exchange value of the US dollar vs. major currencies and the y/y change in non oil import prices. The correlation is a lower 47% against a broader basket of currencies and a lower 57% against the real value of the dollar.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914j.jpg" width="353">
Capital goods prices rose 0.1% (-0.3% y/y) for the second month and rose 0.1% (1.9% y/y) excluding computers. Prices for nonauto consumer goods were unchanged (0.7% y/y) though prices for home entertainment equipment fell (-4.5% y/y). 
Prices of petroleum imports jumped 2.3% after the 5.1% spike during July. Brent crude oil prices were about unchanged at $73.40 per barrel in August but have since fallen to $62.48.
Export prices rose 0.4% for the second consecutive month led by a 1.0% increase agricultural (3.5% y/y) and a 0.4% (5.3% y/y) rise in nonagricultural commodities.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@E8/@E807/@E807.HTM">Import/Export Prices (NSA)</a></th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Import - All Commodities</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>7.5%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Petroleum</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>5.1%</td>
<td>24.3%</td>
<td>37.6%</td>
<td>30.5%</td>
<td>21.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Non-petroleum</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Export- All Commodities</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Business Inventory Accumulation Up 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> September 14, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914l.jpg" width="353">
In July, total business inventories rose 0.6% following an upwardly revised 0.9% June gain. Consensus expectations had been for a 0.5% increase. That combination left the inventory to sales ratio stable m/m at 1.26, up from its low in May of 1.25. 
Retail inventories rose 0.4% led by a 0.5% (15.3% y/y) surge in motor vehicles &amp; parts. Excluding autos, retail inventories rose 0.3% (4.5% y/y). Furniture inventories moved up 4.9% y/y, while building materials inventories grew 8.7%. Clothing store inventories rose 5.5% y/y but inventories of general merchandise grew just 1.2%.
Wholesale inventories increased another 0.8% (8.8% Y/Y) in July led by a 1.2% (25.0% y/y) gain in petroleum inventories. Durables rose 9.2% y/y. 
Factory inventories rose 0.6% (5.7% y/y), the fastest y/y rate of accumulation in a year.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED06/@ED0601/@ED0601.HTM">Business Inventories</a></th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>7.4%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Retail</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>7.8%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; Retail excl. Autos</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Wholesale</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>8.8%</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>9.8%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Manufacturing</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
<td>-7.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Labor Force and Employment Gains Strong in Australia; Unemployment Hovers Near Record Low 
by <a href="/comment/Stone.html">Carol Stone</a> September 14, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914g.jpg" width="353">
Employment in Australia rose 23,400 in August from July and has increased every month for the last ten. The year-on-year growth is just 2%, but the 10-month advance has occurred at a 3.2% annualized pace, similar to the 2005 performance.
This employment growth is strong enough to absorb sizable increases in labor force participation and still set record low unemployment rates. Unemployment stood at 4.9% of the labor force in August after touching 4.8% in July; until last August, it had never been as low as 5.0%. The rise in the participation rate includes an upturn among male workers since August 2004 after a secular decline that extends back almost continuously to the beginning of the data series in 1978. The participation rate for women continues to trend gradually higher.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914h.jpg" width="353">
These broad labor force aggregates for Australia were published a week ago. Today, September 14, the Australian Bureau of Statistics published greater detail, including &quot;quarterly&quot; industry data. These industry data depart from the common use of the term quarterly; they are not averages or totals but figures that are simply collected only once a quarter, in the mid-month. Thus are &quot;third quarter&quot; readings already available before the actual end of the period. And in our table below, we show the whole array of data with their mid-month of quarter values to facilitate comparison.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060914i.jpg" width="353">
As in many &quot;industrial&quot; countries, Australia&#39;s manufacturing sector employment is lagging. However, the latest value, 1,054 persons, is ahead of the year-ago level by 13,000, marking the first year-on-year increase in six quarters. The mining sector seems small with only 139,000 employed in August, but it has been a source of growth particularly in metal ores. We mentioned this general characteristic of the Australian economy a couple of weeks ago (September 1) regarding movements in commodity prices there. Construction is growing vigorously, along with several service industries, especially property &amp; business services and health &amp; community services. Not shown in our table is a spurt in government employment, up 35,700 in the latest quarter, but this reflects temporary hiring for the 2006 Australian census. It will be important to check on Australian labor market conditions after the census has been taken and those temporary employees finish their assignments. ABS suggests that they have not inflated employment totals because many have other jobs already. Stay tuned to see how that plays out.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/ANZ/@A1/@A106/@A106.HTM">Australia Labor Force*</a></th>
<th scope="col">Q3 2006 (Aug)</th>
<th scope="col">Q2 2006 (May)</th>
<th scope="col">Q3 2005 (Aug)</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Employment (000s)</td>
<td>10,265</td>
<td>10,143</td>
<td>10,067</td>
<td>9,987</td>
<td>9,677</td>
<td>9,481</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment (000s)</td>
<td>524</td>
<td>523</td>
<td>532</td>
<td>537</td>
<td>567</td>
<td>611</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
<td>4.9</td>
<td>4.9</td>
<td>5.0</td>
<td>5.1</td>
<td>5.5</td>
<td>6.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Participation Rate (%)</td>
<td>65.1</td>
<td>64.5</td>
<td>64.8</td>
<td>64.4</td>
<td>63.6</td>
<td>63.6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Select Industries (000s)</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Mining</td>
<td>139</td>
<td>133</td>
<td>130</td>
<td>121</td>
<td>103</td>
<td>90</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Manufacturing</td>
<td>1,054</td>
<td>1,060</td>
<td>1,041</td>
<td>1,070</td>
<td>1,089</td>
<td>1,082</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Construction</td>
<td>899</td>
<td>888</td>
<td>870</td>
<td>867</td>
<td>802</td>
<td>755</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Property &amp; Business Services</td>
<td>1,233</td>
<td>1,196</td>
<td>1,197</td>
<td>1,171</td>
<td>1,108</td>
<td>1,112</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Health &amp; Community Services</td>
<td>1,072</td>
<td>1,089</td>
<td>1,023</td>
<td>1,013</td>
<td>981</td>
<td>932</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


</html>

Carol Stone, CBE

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060913c.jpg" width="353">
Prime Minister Blair gave away a key piece of UK labor market data Tuesday at a speech to the Trades Union Congress, letting people know that the so-called &quot;claimant count&quot; would see a &quot;welcome&quot; fall. Indeed, as the ONS reported officially this morning, the number of people claiming the Jobseeker&#39;s Allowance eased to 950,100 in August from 954,000 in July and 955,000 in June. These compare to 869,300 in August 2005 and a monthly average of 861,000 for all of last year. While the monthly figure did decline then, the most that can really be said about the data is that it didn&#39;t worsen.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060913d.jpg" width="353">
The UK&#39;s broader unemployment rate, following the widely used ILO definition, also indicated stabilization, but not improvement. It remained at 5.5% in the June reporting period, the three months centered on June, the same as in the May period. These compare with 4.7% a year ago. The number of people employed rose in the June period by 37,000 following a 39,000 gain in May. April&#39;s reading was down 38,000, so the three periods together leave employment in a very gentle uptrend, 0.8% higher than a year ago.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060913e.jpg" width="353">
Markets focused on the lower claimant count, and they also noticed the rise in wages. The July reading on the average earnings index picked up to a 4.4% advance over a year ago, after June&#39;s 4.3% and May&#39;s 4.1%. Even so, the latest figure remains just below the Bank of England&#39;s threshold for inflation concern that sets in at 4.5%, suggesting that any monetary policy change won&#39;t come immediately, though some see a rate hike late this year. [The &quot;AEI&quot; is the index of average hourly earnings over the last three months relative to the same period a year ago. While the employment reading is generally taken on the middle month of a three-month moving average, the AEI highlights the ending month. So this is the &quot;July&quot; AEI, and the &quot;June&quot; employment and unemployment data, but they actually cover the same period: May, June and July.]

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/UK/@U7/@U7.HTM">UK Labor Force Survey &amp; Related Labor Data</a></th>
<th scope="col">Aug 2006</th>
<th scope="col">July 2006</th>
<th scope="col">June 2006</th>
<th scope="col">May 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Year Ago</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Employment &nbsp; (3Mo Avg, SA, Thous)</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>28,975</td>
<td>28,938</td>
<td>28,755</td>
<td>28,743</td>
<td>28,465</td>
<td>28,183</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Chg from 1 &amp; 3 Months Ago</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>37/38</td>
<td>39/42</td>
<td>+18&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; (MoAvg)</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate &nbsp; (3Mo Avg, SA, %)</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Claimant Count &nbsp; (Monthly, Thous)</td>
<td>950.1</td>
<td>954.0</td>
<td>955.0</td>
<td>950.7</td>
<td>869.3</td>
<td>861.8</td>
<td>853.5</td>
<td>933.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Vacancies (Monthly, Thous)</td>
<td>600.4</td>
<td>617.0</td>
<td>604.2</td>
<td>584.2</td>
<td>609.6</td>
<td>619.0</td>
<td>631.9</td>
<td>582.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Average Earnings Index inc Bonus (Headline Rate*)</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Prime Minister Blair gave away a key piece of UK labor market data Tuesday at a speech to the Trades Union Congress, letting people know that the so-called "claimant count" would see a "welcome" fall. Indeed, as the ONS reported [...]

UK Claimant Count Eases, Bringing Good News to Politicians, But Broader Unemployment and Employment Change Little

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060913b.jpg" width="353">
For the second consecutive week, a firm rise in the number of mortgage applications for purchase led overall mortgage apps higher, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Purchase applications added 5.3% to the prior week&#39;s 3.7% rise and lifted applications in September 4.4% above the August average which fell 3.5% from July.
During the last ten years there has been a 58% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single family home sales.
Overall mortgage applications rose 3.2% last week after the prior period&#39;s 1.8% increase.
Applications to refinance ticked up 0.1% following the prior week&#39;s 0.9% decline. The average level of refis in September is up 1.0% from August which surged 13.3% m/m from July.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060913a.jpg" width="353">
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage was stable w/w at 6.53%. The peak for 30 year financing was 7.08% late in June. The rate on 15-year financing also was stable w/w at 6.25% and the peak rate was 6.75%. Interest rates on 15 and 30 year mortgages are closely correlated (&gt;90%) with the rate on 10 year Treasury securities.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 79% correlation between the level of applications for purchase and the effective interest rate on a 30-year mortgage.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.
Can Housing Be Green and Affordable? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta can be found <a href="http://www.frbatlanta.org/invoke.cfm?objectid=7E448AB7-5056-9F12-1273CD2B2C3B6231&amp;method=display_body"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">09/08/06</th>
<th scope="col">09/01/06</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>584.2</td>
<td>566.3</td>
<td>-23.2%</td>
<td>708.6</td>
<td>735.1</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>410.2</td>
<td>389.7</td>
<td>-20.1%</td>
<td>470.9</td>
<td>454.5</td>
<td>395.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>1,597.0</td>
<td>1,594.7</td>
<td>-27.4%</td>
<td>2,092.3</td>
<td>2,366.8</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

For the second consecutive week, a firm rise in the number of mortgage applications for purchase led overall mortgage apps higher, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Purchase applications added 5.3% to the prior week's [...]

Mortgage Applications For Home Purchase Up

<html>
<head>
<style>
.odd{
 background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
 background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
	background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
	background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
	background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
	background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
	background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
 



<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060913b.jpg" width="353">
For the second consecutive week, a firm rise in the number of mortgage applications for purchase led overall mortgage apps higher, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Purchase applications added 5.3% to the prior week&#39;s 3.7% rise and lifted applications in September 4.4% above the August average which fell 3.5% from July.
During the last ten years there has been a 58% correlation between the y/y change in purchase applications and the change in new plus existing single family home sales.
Overall mortgage applications rose 3.2% last week after the prior period&#39;s 1.8% increase.
Applications to refinance ticked up 0.1% following the prior week&#39;s 0.9% decline. The average level of refis in September is up 1.0% from August which surged 13.3% m/m from July.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060913a.jpg" width="353">
The effective interest rate on a conventional 30-year mortgage was stable w/w at 6.53%. The peak for 30 year financing was 7.08% late in June. The rate on 15-year financing also was stable w/w at 6.25% and the peak rate was 6.75%. Interest rates on 15 and 30 year mortgages are closely correlated (&gt;90%) with the rate on 10 year Treasury securities.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 79% correlation between the level of applications for purchase and the effective interest rate on a 30-year mortgage.
The Mortgage Bankers Association surveys between 20 to 35 of the top lenders in the U.S. housing industry to derive its refinance, purchase and market indexes. The weekly survey accounts for more than 40% of all applications processed each week by mortgage lenders. Visit the Mortgage Bankers Association site <a href="http://www.mbaa.org">here</a>.
Can Housing Be Green and Affordable? from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta can be found <a href="http://www.frbatlanta.org/invoke.cfm?objectid=7E448AB7-5056-9F12-1273CD2B2C3B6231&amp;method=display_body"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYW/@S5/@S5.HTM">MBA Mortgage Applications (3/16/90=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">09/08/06</th>
<th scope="col">09/01/06</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Market Index</td>
<td>584.2</td>
<td>566.3</td>
<td>-23.2%</td>
<td>708.6</td>
<td>735.1</td>
<td>1,067.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Purchase</td>
<td>410.2</td>
<td>389.7</td>
<td>-20.1%</td>
<td>470.9</td>
<td>454.5</td>
<td>395.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Refinancing</td>
<td>1,597.0</td>
<td>1,594.7</td>
<td>-27.4%</td>
<td>2,092.3</td>
<td>2,366.8</td>
<td>4,981.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
UK Claimant Count Eases, Bringing Good News to Politicians, But Broader Unemployment and Employment Change Little 
by <a href="/comment/Stone.html">Carol Stone</a> September 13, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060913c.jpg" width="353">
Prime Minister Blair gave away a key piece of UK labor market data Tuesday at a speech to the Trades Union Congress, letting people know that the so-called &quot;claimant count&quot; would see a &quot;welcome&quot; fall. Indeed, as the ONS reported officially this morning, the number of people claiming the Jobseeker&#39;s Allowance eased to 950,100 in August from 954,000 in July and 955,000 in June. These compare to 869,300 in August 2005 and a monthly average of 861,000 for all of last year. While the monthly figure did decline then, the most that can really be said about the data is that it didn&#39;t worsen.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060913d.jpg" width="353">
The UK&#39;s broader unemployment rate, following the widely used ILO definition, also indicated stabilization, but not improvement. It remained at 5.5% in the June reporting period, the three months centered on June, the same as in the May period. These compare with 4.7% a year ago. The number of people employed rose in the June period by 37,000 following a 39,000 gain in May. April&#39;s reading was down 38,000, so the three periods together leave employment in a very gentle uptrend, 0.8% higher than a year ago.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060913e.jpg" width="353">
Markets focused on the lower claimant count, and they also noticed the rise in wages. The July reading on the average earnings index picked up to a 4.4% advance over a year ago, after June&#39;s 4.3% and May&#39;s 4.1%. Even so, the latest figure remains just below the Bank of England&#39;s threshold for inflation concern that sets in at 4.5%, suggesting that any monetary policy change won&#39;t come immediately, though some see a rate hike late this year. [The &quot;AEI&quot; is the index of average hourly earnings over the last three months relative to the same period a year ago. While the employment reading is generally taken on the middle month of a three-month moving average, the AEI highlights the ending month. So this is the &quot;July&quot; AEI, and the &quot;June&quot; employment and unemployment data, but they actually cover the same period: May, June and July.]

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/UK/@U7/@U7.HTM">UK Labor Force Survey &amp; Related Labor Data</a></th>
<th scope="col">Aug 2006</th>
<th scope="col">July 2006</th>
<th scope="col">June 2006</th>
<th scope="col">May 2006</th>
<th scope="col">Year Ago</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Employment &nbsp; (3Mo Avg, SA, Thous)</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>28,975</td>
<td>28,938</td>
<td>28,755</td>
<td>28,743</td>
<td>28,465</td>
<td>28,183</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Chg from 1 &amp; 3 Months Ago</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>37/38</td>
<td>39/42</td>
<td>+18&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; (MoAvg)</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate &nbsp; (3Mo Avg, SA, %)</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Claimant Count &nbsp; (Monthly, Thous)</td>
<td>950.1</td>
<td>954.0</td>
<td>955.0</td>
<td>950.7</td>
<td>869.3</td>
<td>861.8</td>
<td>853.5</td>
<td>933.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Vacancies (Monthly, Thous)</td>
<td>600.4</td>
<td>617.0</td>
<td>604.2</td>
<td>584.2</td>
<td>609.6</td>
<td>619.0</td>
<td>631.9</td>
<td>582.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Average Earnings Index inc Bonus (Headline Rate*)</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>4.1%</td>
<td>4.3%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Inflationary impact of surge in oil prices larger in Europe than in the US

Futures market thinks the price of oil will recede significantly over the next six months

Recent pickup in US defense orders could help support overall growth ahead

Cost of transporting crude oil has soared to series high

Market-based inflation expectations have not yet reflected recent surge in oil prices

Global equity markets are fearing a major economic disruption from soaring oil prices

Is recent drop in sentiment signaling softer growth ahead?

With the Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has soared to alarming levels

Soaring AI-related investment in US underpinning strong contribution of business spending to overall growth

AI-related outperformance of IP in Advanced Asia ex Japan

Resilient US economy pushing up Blue Chip 2026 outlook

US and China big leaders in adoption of AI models

Robust US demand for advanced technology products

China's export growth rotating away from the US

More pronounced upward revisions in countries more exposed to AI investment

Stable job openings and hiring rates point to cautious hiring

Global freight costs are on the rise while supply chain pressures are contained

Accelerating positive economic surprises in the G10 are boosting the global economy

Considerably more monetary ease expected from US and UK as Japan tightens

Tighter US immigration enforcement adversely impacting labor force

Economic policy uncertainty, while still elevated, is declining

Gradual disinflation and easier monetary policies across advanced economies

Largest October layoffs since 2003, led by technology

Subdued global shipping costs not yet pointing to supply chain problems

PMIs show still-elevated but slowing US inflation

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

Service Health

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

London

Singapore

Tokyo

New York

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Featured Data Additions

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

Andrew Cates

**Energy shock lifts inflation, trims growth**
The IMF’s latest WEO revisions for 2026 broadly reflect the classic stagflationary impact of the recent Middle East energy shock, with growth downgraded and inflation revised higher across most major economies. Higher energy prices act as a tax on real incomes while simultaneously pushing up costs. That said, the picture is not uniform: a number of economies—notably the US, China and India—have seen growth upgrades, reflecting stronger-than-expected momentum so far in 2026. By contrast, the UK stands out at the stagflationary extreme, combining one of the largest growth downgrades with a relatively strong inflation uplift—consistent with its weaker underlying momentum, greater energy sensitivity and more persistent domestic inflation dynamics. More broadly, while the global revisions remain modest—pointing to resilience in activity—the message is that disinflation is no longer a smooth glide back to target but increasingly contingent on energy prices and geopolitical developments.

260423Z1.jpg

**Markets largely shrug off rising economic pessimism**
Notwithstanding a more downbeat assessment from economists—including the IMF’s stagflationary tilt to the outlook—there has been remarkably little follow-through into financial markets. Measures of systemic stress in both the US and UK remain low by historical standards, suggesting that investors are, for now, largely looking through the Middle East conflict. There are several possible explanations: corporate profits remain resilient, the AI-driven investment narrative continues to dominate market thinking, and markets may be assuming that any energy shock will be temporary and contained. In effect, investors appear to be pricing a benign baseline in which geopolitical risks do not materially disrupt growth, inflation expectations or policy. The UK is a partial exception, with a somewhat more visible uptick in stress, which aligns more closely with the IMF’s more challenging growth-inflation trade-off and the economy’s greater sensitivity to energy prices.

260423Z2.jpg

**Volatility falls despite deteriorating growth surprises**
Market optimism is also increasingly at odds with the incoming data flow. Typically, equity volatility declines when growth surprises are positive and inflation surprises are benign. However, the recent pattern has broken that relationship. Growth surprises across the G10 have turned increasingly negative (our series is inverted in the chart below), yet volatility has continued to fall. In other words, markets are becoming less sensitive to weakening macro data, continuing to price a benign outlook even as the data deteriorate. This divergence reinforces the broader theme: investors are, for now, looking through both geopolitical risks and softer economic momentum, placing greater weight on resilience in earnings, the AI-driven narrative and the assumption that policy will remain supportive.

260423Z3.jpg

**Inflation Nowcasts Have Jumped**
Incoming data suggest that headline inflation has moved higher in recent weeks, broadly in line with expectations given the rise in energy prices following the Middle East shock. Nowcasts for CPI across the major economies show a clear rebound in March and April from the lows seen at the start of 2026, with the move occurring in a relatively synchronised fashion. This reinforces the view that the recent pickup in inflation is being driven primarily by a common external factor—energy.

260423Z4.jpg

**Energy shock not yet feeding into underlying inflation**
However, the detailed breakdown of March inflation outcomes suggests that this remains, for now, a largely headline-driven phenomenon. While headline CPI prints were firm across most economies, core inflation—stripping out energy and food—was more subdued and in some cases weaker. This indicates that there has been very limited pass-through from higher energy prices into broader goods and services inflation at this early stage. In other words, the shock is still being absorbed rather than propagated. That distinction is critical for policy and markets alike: as long as second-round effects remain contained, central banks may be able to look through the near-term rise in inflation, even as headline rates move higher.

260423Z5.jpg

**Inflation Expectations Rising as Growth Sentiment Falters**
It remains early days, and much will hinge on how inflation expectations evolve from here. The latest ZEW survey for Germany already conveys the hallmarks of a classic stagflationary shock, with macroeconomic expectations weakening even as inflation expectations have ratcheted sharply higher. This shift is important: while the recent rise in headline inflation has so far shown limited pass-through into core, a sustained increase in expectations would raise the risk of second-round effects and make the inflation process more persistent. In that sense, the ZEW data highlight the key fault line in the current environment—whether the energy-driven shock remains contained, or begins to embed itself more broadly through expectations and pricing behaviour.

260423Z6.jpg

Financial markets have remained notably calm in recent weeks despite rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, a more downbeat macroeconomic narrative and elevated uncertainty. Measures of financial stress and volatility remain low, and equity markets continue to look through both the conflict and softer data. That resilience sits alongside a more nuanced macro backdrop. The IMF’s latest WEO revisions point to a classic stagflationary energy shock—growth downgraded and inflation revised higher—although the global impact remains modest and uneven, with some economies still benefiting from stronger momentum (chart 1). At the same time, market pricing appears increasingly detached from the data flow, with volatility declining even as growth surprises have turned more negative relative to inflation (charts 2 and 3). Incoming inflation data reinforce the idea of a largely headline-driven shock, with nowcasts rising in line with higher energy prices but only limited pass-through into core inflation so far (charts 4 and 5). However, it remains early days. Survey evidence, such as the latest ZEW release, suggests that inflation expectations may already be responding in a more concerning way, with a marked rise alongside weakening growth sentiment (chart 6). Taken together, the key question for markets is whether this remains a contained, energy-driven shock that can be looked through—or whether it begins to embed more persistently via expectations, forcing a reassessment of the currently benign outlook.

<iframe data-testid="embed-iframe" style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/44A12ktUaoJGHZG7pEVcul?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: Risks Build, Markets Shrug

Robert Brusca

260424E.jpg

The onset of the war in Iran appears to have hit the German economy extremely hard as the Ifo survey shows very substantial and broad-based decline across its survey in April. The Ifo survey features readings for five sectors as well as an aggregate reading, and it surveys them for climate, current conditions, and expectations. The decline in the Ifo survey is present for all three concepts and across all five sectors, marking the weakening in April as a highly significant and extremely disturbing development. Only manufacturing in the current conditions survey escapes a month-to-month decline.

**The Ifo sequences**: The **climate** reading fell both overall and across each of the five sectors. **Current conditions** declined for the overall and for four of the five sectors, with manufacturing the sole exception. **Expectations** declined for the overall and for all sectors. Several of the sector declines were for a very substantial magnitude, especially when compared to historic changes in these indexes.

**Monthly changes in readings—severe broad deterioration**
The month-to-month change in the climate reading has weakened more month-to-month 19% of the time. That overall result, however, is boosted by manufacturing where the monthly change has been weaker 35% of the time (on data back to 2011). However, all other sectors have seen climate weaker m/m only 2.3% to 6.3% of the time! The current situation readings weakened, with the headline weakening more m/m 11% of the time. This was boosted by manufacturing, the only sector that improved on the month; its ranking on change was in its 85th percentile—quite good and truly stand-alone good news. The other current changes by sector ranged from construction being weaker 1.7% of the time, to retailing that has been weaker about 30% of the time in terms of m/m changes. Expectation changes were uniformly terrible, with the headline drop weaker only 6.3% of the time and sector change month-to-month weaker between 9% and 1.7% of the time. The monthly weakening was uniform and substantial. I document it with these calculations, but you can also see it on the chart above.

**Climate**: The bottom line is that the all-sector index for climate fell to -20.3 in April from -18 in March, placing it at a 10.5 percentile standing on data since 1993. The sector ranking is the highest for construction with a 42.2 percentile standing and the weakness for services at a 1.1 percentile standing—weaker than the table reading nearly 99% of the time. In terms of percentile standing levels or monthly changes, conditions are closing in on grim.

**Current conditions**: Current conditions saw the all-sector index slip to -5.3 in April from -2.4 in March. The headline ranking stands at a 9.8 percentile mark, making it—like the climate reading—weaker than its current reading only about 10% of the time. The strongest reading under current conditions is for construction which has a 60.6 percentile standing; it is the only ranking in the table above its historic median. Manufacturing, the only sector in the survey that improved month-to-month, has a 22.5 percentile standing, while services record the weakest percentile standing under current conditions, at an 8.4 percentile standing.

**Expectations:** The all-sector index for expectations fell to -25.3 in April from -19.9 in March, placing it at a 6.3 percentile standing. The percentile standings across sectors range from a high of 9.5% for manufacturing to a low of 1.5% for retailing. Up until earlier this year, the Ifo was showing signs of improvement; however, all of that has simply collapsed in the last month. Weakness is across economic concepts and sectors, as documented above. For reference, the table also gives a separate set of rankings on where the various indexes stand since the invasion of Ukraine, since that was another marked event that drove the index, that had been improving after Covid, down to lower levels.  Ranked even on this reduced scale looking at conditions only since the invasion of Ukraine, when conditions have generally been weaker, the current rankings across the Ifo survey remained extremely weak. This is a very disturbing survey for the German economy.

260424.jpg

Germany

German Ifo Plunges Everywhere

Sandy Batten

260423F8.jpg

260423G8.jpg

The National Activity Index published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago (CFNAI) slipped to -0.20 in March from an upwardly revised +0.03 in February (previously (-0.11). This is the lowest monthly reading since last November. Smoothing out the monthly volatility, the index's three-month moving average (CFNAI-MA3) declined to -0.03 in March from an upwardly revised +0.03 in February (previously -0.01).

This index is expressed in standard deviation units from zero (with a value of zero defined as trend real GDP growth). Research at the FRB Chicago indicates that readings on the 3-month average of -0.70 or below are consistent with the economy being in a recession. Therefore, even though the March reading on the 3-month average was negative, it indicates that the US economy is still growing, just slightly slower than trend, and is well away from recessionary conditions. The 3-month average would be much deeper in negative territory if the economy was at risk of contracting.

The National Activity Index is a composite of 85 economic indicators, grouped into four major categories: production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours worked; personal consumption and housing; sales, orders, and inventories. Three of the four broad categories of indicators used to construct the index decreased from February, and three categories made negative contributions in March. Production-related indicators contributed –0.20 to the CFNAI in March, down from +0.13 in February. The sales, orders, and inventories category's contribution to the CFNAI was –0.01 in March, down from +0.05 in February. Employment-related indicators contributed +0.02 to the CFNAI in March, up from –0.15 in February. The personal consumption and housing category's contribution to the CFNAI was –0.01 in March, down from a neutral value in February.

The CFNAI Diffusion Index, which measures the breadth of the change in the component series and is also a three-month moving average, increased to –0.04 in March from –0.08 in February. This is the highest reading since February 2025. A reading of zero indicates that all of the indicators are growing at their long-term average. If all of the underlying indicators in a given month are below their long-run averages, the diffusion index will equal -1. If all of the indicators are above their long-run averages, it will equal +1. Thirty-four of the 85 individual indicators made positive contributions to the CFNAI in March, while 51 made negative contributions. Forty-three indicators improved from February to March, while 40 indicators deteriorated and two were unchanged. Of the indicators that improved, 16 made negative contributions.

These figures are available in Haver's **SURVEYS** database.

- The monthly reading fell to -0.20 in March from an upwardly revised +0.03 in February.
- The three-month average slipped from +0.03 to -0.03.
- Despite the slip in March, the index points to near-trend economic growth and is well above recession territory.

Chicago Fed National Activity Index Slipped in March

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

260423A1.jpg

260423B1.jpg

Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose by 6,000 to 214,000 in the week ending April 18, from 208,000 in the week ending April 11, revised from 207,000. The four-week average rose 750 to 210,750 in the week ending April 18, from 210,000 the April 11 week, revised from 209,750. The Action Economics/Haver Analytics Survey looked for 210,000 claims to have been filed.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—rose by 12,000 to 1.821 million in the week ending April 11, from 1.809 million in the week ending April 4. The four-week moving average rose to 1.812 million in the latest week from 1.811 million in the March 28 week. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2% in the week of April 11. It has remained at that level since the week of November 29, 2025.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending April 4, the highest unemployment rates were in New Jersey (2.51%), Massachusetts (2.37%), Rhode Island (2.31%), Washington (2.25%), Minnesota (2.11%), and California (2.02%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.30%), Louisiana (0.31%), Arkansas (0.35%), Alabama (0.36%), North Carolina (0.39%), Tennessee (0.46%), South Dakota (0.47%), Kansas and Virginia (both 0.49%). Rates in other notable states include New York (1.92%), Illinois (1.82%), Pennsylvania (1.52%), and Texas (1.04%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

260423C1.jpg

260423D1.jpg

- New claims rose by 6,000 to 214,000.
- Continuing claims rose by 12,000 to 1.821 million.
- The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2%.


U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Rose in the Week of April 18

260423E.jpg

**Manufacturing looks strong while service sectors weaken**
S&P's April flash PMI readings show some very mixed results. For the United States, India, Australia, and the United Kingdom, there is a strengthening in the readings month-to-month for services, manufacturing, and the composite.

For Japan, France, and the European Monetary Union as a whole, there is improvement in the manufacturing sector on the month but a weaker services reading and a weaker composite overall.

Germany is the only responding area in the table showing weakness all around—in all three sectors—a weaker composite, a weaker manufacturing sector, and a weaker services sector in April. For Germany, this follows a weaker composite and service sector in March as well.

Most reporters—France, the United Kingdom, Japan, Australia, and India—had weaker readings for all three metrics in March: the composite, services, and manufacturing. The March exceptions were the United States, Germany, and the European Monetary Union; in each case, the exception was that the manufacturing sector improved month-to-month, while the composite and services both weakened.

This has been a period of weakening—in March and April—since the war in Iran began. The 48 separate sector readings produced 30 readings that were weaker month-to-month in March and April. Among the 16 composite readings, 12 reported weaker conditions month-to-month. In March, the immediate aftermath of the outbreak of war brought instantaneous step backs across the PMI readings, while April, responding to at least a military success in the area, has shown a significant bounce back that is now more common than further weakness.

The sequential data over three months, six months, and 12 months are based only on completed data; therefore, they're up to date through March. On that basis, we have triple sector weakness in the U.S., India, and Australia, with only Japan and the United Kingdom showing triple-sector improvement over three months. However, if we look at six months compared to 12 months, we have triple sector strength in the Monetary Union, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, Japan, and Australia. India and the U.S. each show only one stronger sector over that comparison—services in India’s case and manufacturing in the U.S. case.

**Ranking Peculiarity**
The ranking data take the current flash data and compare them to the history of observations back to January 2022. What is quite surprising is that, on that timeline, the manufacturing sectors of all the countries in the table—except for Australia and India—show manufacturing standings in their respective 80th to 90th percentiles. Meanwhile, services standings are typically in the 30th percentile or lower.

**Odd Impact of War**
If the war in Iran has an impact on something, we would expect that to fall on the goods trade sector. We would expect this to have an impact on manufacturing although it's the opposite thing that's happening. Manufacturing is showing a revival, while services sectors are showing weaker performance across these countries generally. India is an interesting case, with manufacturing only in its 32nd percentile; however, India’s raw diffusion reading for manufacturing is the strongest raw diffusion reading in the table. What India's ranking is telling us is that India had been extremely strong over the period since 2022, and now compared to that past standard, it's relatively weaker. However, it's still strong in absolute terms, showing a great deal of strength based on its pure diffusion value, just not in comparison to historic performance.

260423.jpg

**Next?**
At this point, it's not clear to me at least what these PMI data are telling us since the strength in manufacturing is a curiosity as is the weakness in the services sector. You see these two phenomena displayed in the chart above, in the case of the European Monetary Union’s flash readings as well.

**War breeds negative effects**
It's not a surprise that war would take some toll on consumer confidence or that it would be reflected in the services sector. However, seeing the kind of weakness being portrayed now in services against the strength in manufacturing is simply a bit hard to rationalize and understand. So, I think we're going to have to keep an eye on these readings as well as other readings in the months ahead to try to discern how global events, the war, conditions in the Strait of Hormuz, inflation currency shifts, and central bank policy are playing out across these various countries. None of what is happening is obvious to me. Japan clearly continues to benefit from a weak yen as its manufacturing sector is flying high, at its best reading since January 2022.

Economy in Brief

Jump to:

U.S. Import Prices Strong

U.S. Budget Deficit Deteriorated As Expected

Initial Claims for Jobless Insurance Fell Unexpectedly

U.S. Retail Sales Gain Light; Gasoline Prices Fell

U.S. Retail Sales Gain Light; Gasoline Prices Fell

UK Claimant Count Eases, Bringing Good News to Politicians, But Broader Unemployment and Employment Change Little

Mortgage Applications For Home Purchase Up

Mortgage Applications For Home Purchase Up