Global| Oct 19 2006Initial Jobless Insurance Claims At Four Month Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Last week, initial claims for jobless insurance fell 10,000 to 299,000 after a little revised increase the week earlier. It was the third decline in the last four weeks and dropped claims to the lowest level since early June. [...]
Last week, initial claims for jobless insurance fell 10,000 to 299,000 after a little revised increase the week earlier. It was the third decline in the last four weeks and dropped claims to the lowest level since early June. Consensus expectations had been for 310,000 claims.
The latest figure covers the survey period for October nonfarm payrolls and and claims were down 23,000 (-7.1%) from the September period.
During the last ten years there has been a (negative) 78% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
The four-week moving average of initial claims fell to 307,750 (-15.1% y/y).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose 25,000 after a revised 12,000 decline the prior week that initially was reported as a 5,000 w/w increase.
The insured rate of unemployment was steady at 1.9% where it has been since February.
Health Insurance Costs and Declining Coverage from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found here.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 10/14/06 | 10/07/06 | Y/Y | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 299 | 308 | -12.8% | 332 | 343 | 403 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,453 | -13.0% | 2,662 | 2,924 | 3,532 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
More Economy in Brief
