Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081111c.jpg" width="353">
The retail price for a gallon of regular gasoline fell by another eighteen cents last week after the twenty six cent drop during the prior week, according to the U.S. Department of Energy survey. The price of $2.22 was the lowest since February 2007. Prices have now fallen $1.89 per gallon, or by nearly one-half, since their peak early this past July. The latest decline was accompanied by a drop in the average price for all grades of gasoline to $2.28 per gallon.
Yesterday, the spot market price for a gallon of regular gasoline fell eight cents from last week&#39;s average to $1.40. In futures trading the November contract closed down further at $1.37 per gallon.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081111d.jpg" width="353">
Weekly gasoline prices can be found in Haver&#39;s WEEKLY database. Daily prices are in the DAILY database.
The demand for gasoline fell by 3.3% y/y, according to the U.S. Department of Energy. The rate of decline has bottomed out recently but the decline is still the fastest since late-1995 (the latest four weeks versus the same four weeks last year). The demand for all petroleum products also has softened, falling 7.0% y/y.
These DOE figures are available in Haver&#39;s OILWKLY database.
The price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell further last week to an average $64.31 per barrel, down 56% since the peak in July of $145.66. In futures trading yesterday, the two-month price for crude oil was even lower at $63.27 per barrel.
Last week, prices for natural gas ticked up w/w to $6.74 per mmbtu (-3.3% y/y) as seasonal factors began to lift the price. The average price this month was nearly one-half below the high for natural gas prices in early-July of $13.19/mmbtu.
If Exchange Rates Are Random Walks, Then Almost Everything We Say About Monetary Policy Is Wrong from the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis can be found <a href="http://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/QR/QR3211.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W4/@W4.HTM">Weekly Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/10/08</th>
<th scope="col">11/03/08</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per Gallon)</td>
<td>2.22</td>
<td>2.40</td>
<td>-28.5%</td>
<td>2.80</td>
<td>2.57</td>
<td>2.27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI&nbsp; ($ per bbl.)</td>
<td>64.31</td>
<td>65.68</td>
<td>-32.5%</td>
<td>72.25</td>
<td>66.12</td>
<td>56.60</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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The retail price for a gallon of regular gasoline fell by another eighteen cents last week after the twenty six cent drop during the prior week, according to the U.S. Department of Energy survey. The price of $2.22 was the lowest [...]

U.S. Gasoline Prices Lowest Since February 2007. Demand Fell Further

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081111a.jpg" width="353">
According to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), small business optimism collapsed last month. The 5.8% m/m decline to an index level of 87.5 reversed all of the gains during the prior two months and dropped the level of optimism to its lowest level since early 1975.
During the last ten years there has been a 50% correlation between the level of the NFIB index and the two-quarter change in real GDP.
Plans for capital expenditures collapsed with the recent weakness if corporate profits. During the next 3-6 months, plans for spending fell to their lowest level since 1975.
The percent expecting credit conditions to ease fell to its lowest level since 1980 while the percent expecting higher real sales in six months dropped also to its lowest since 1980. Only five percent of firms thought that now was a good time to expend the business, near the lowest since 1982.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081111b.jpg" width="353">
The percentage planning to raise employment fell to zero. The percentage of respondents with one or more job openings improved to 14%, the least since 1992. During the last ten years there has been a 71% correlation between the NFIB employment percentage and the y/y change in nonfarm payrolls.
The largest, single most important problems seen by business were poor sales (23%), inflation (11%), insurance cost and availability (11%) and taxes (18%). The latter, however, still was reduced from 27% in early 2007.
The percentage of firms actually raising prices fell to 15%, the lowest level since February. During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the y/y change in the producer price index and the level of the NFIB price index. The percentage of firms planning to raise prices also fell further to 18% which was the least since 2003
About 24 million businesses exist in the United States. Small business creates 80% of all new jobs in America.
The NFIB figures can be found in Haver&#39;s SURVEYS database.
Toward A Durable Recovery is last week&#39;s speech by Atlanta Fed Bank President Dennis P. Lockhart and it available <a href="http://www.frbatlanta.org/invoke.cfm?objectid=77A47FE2-5056-9F12-12AFBD6ADE42D36E&amp;method=display">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
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<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S7/@S7.HTM">Nat&#39;l Federation of Independent Business</a></th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Small Business Optimism Index (1986=100)</td>
<td>87.5</td>
<td>92.9</td>
<td>-9.0%</td>
<td>96.7</td>
<td>98.9</td>
<td>101.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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According to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), small business optimism collapsed last month. The 5.8% m/m decline to an index level of 87.5 reversed all of the gains during the prior two months and dropped the [...]

U.S. Small Business Optimism Lowest Since 1975

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081111a.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
According to the National Federation of Independent Business
(NFIB), small business optimism collapsed last month. The 5.8% m/m
decline to an index level of 87.5 reversed all of the gains during the
prior two months and dropped the level of optimism to its lowest level
since early 1975.
During the last ten years there has been a 50% correlation
between the level of the NFIB index and the two-quarter change in real
GDP.
Plans for capital expenditures collapsed with the recent
weakness if corporate profits. During the next 3-6 months, plans for
spending fell to their lowest level since 1975.
The percent expecting credit conditions to ease fell to its
lowest level since 1980 while the percent expecting higher real sales
in six months dropped also to its lowest since 1980. Only five percent
of firms thought that now was a good time to expend the business, near
the lowest since 1982.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081111b.jpg" align="right" border="0">
The percentage planning to raise employment fell to zero. The
percentage of respondents with one or more job openings improved to
14%, the least since 1992. During the last ten years there has been a
71% correlation between the NFIB employment percentage and the y/y
change in nonfarm payrolls.
The largest, single most important problems seen by business
were poor sales (23%), inflation (11%), insurance cost and availability
(11%) and taxes (18%). The latter, however, still was reduced from 27%
in early 2007.
The percentage of firms actually raising
prices fell to 15%, the lowest level since February. During the last
ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the y/y change in
the producer price index and the level of the NFIB price index. The
percentage of firms planning to raise prices also
fell further to 18% which was the least since 2003
About 24 million businesses exist in the United States. Small
business creates 80% of all new jobs in America.
The NFIB figures can be found in Haver's SURVEYS
database.
Toward A Durable Recovery is last week's
speech by Atlanta Fed Bank President Dennis P. Lockhart and it
available <a href="http://www.frbatlanta.org/invoke.cfm?objectid=77A47FE2-5056-9F12-12AFBD6ADE42D36E&amp;method=display">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S7/@S7.HTM">Nat'l
Federation of Independent Business</a></th>
<th scope="col">October</th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Small Business Optimism Index
(1986=100)</td>
<td>87.5</td>
<td>92.9</td>
<td>-9.0%</td>
<td>96.7</td>
<td>98.9</td>
<td>101.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Gasoline Prices Lowest Since
February 2007. Demand Fell Further 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom
Moeller</a> November 11, 2008


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081111c.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The retail price for a gallon of regular gasoline fell
by another eighteen cents last week after the twenty six cent drop
during the prior week, according to the U.S. Department of Energy
survey. The price of $2.22 was the lowest since February 2007. Prices
have now fallen $1.89 per gallon, or by nearly one-half, since their
peak early this past July. The latest decline was accompanied by a drop
in the average price for all grades of gasoline to $2.28 per gallon.
Yesterday, the spot market price for a gallon of regular
gasoline fell eight cents from last week's average to $1.40. In futures
trading the November contract closed down further at $1.37 per gallon.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081111d.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Weekly gasoline prices can be found in Haver's WEEKLY
database. Daily prices are in the DAILY
database.
The demand for gasoline fell by 3.3% y/y,
according to the U.S. Department of Energy. The rate of decline has
bottomed out recently but the decline is still the fastest since
late-1995 (the latest four weeks versus the same four weeks last year).
The demand for all petroleum products also has softened, falling 7.0%
y/y.
These DOE figures are available in Haver's OILWKLY
database.
The price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil
fell further last week to an average $64.31 per barrel, down 56% since
the peak in July of $145.66. In futures trading yesterday, the
two-month price for crude oil was even lower at $63.27 per barrel.
Last week, prices for natural gas ticked up w/w to $6.74 per
mmbtu (-3.3% y/y) as seasonal factors began to lift the price. The
average price this month was nearly one-half below the high for natural
gas prices in early-July of $13.19/mmbtu.
If Exchange Rates Are Random Walks, Then Almost
Everything We Say About Monetary Policy Is Wrong from
the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis can be found <a href="http://www.minneapolisfed.org/research/QR/QR3211.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W4/@W4.HTM">Weekly
Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/10/08</th>
<th scope="col">11/03/08</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per
Gallon)</td>
<td>2.22</td>
<td>2.40</td>
<td>-28.5%</td>
<td>2.80</td>
<td>2.57</td>
<td>2.27</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Light Sweet Crude Oil,
WTI&nbsp; ($ per bbl.)</td>
<td>64.31</td>
<td>65.68</td>
<td>-32.5%</td>
<td>72.25</td>
<td>66.12</td>
<td>56.60</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
U.S. Chain Store Sales Dropped 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom
Moeller</a> November 11, 2008


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081111e.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
According to the International Council of Shopping
Centers-Goldman Sachs Index, chain store sales dropped 1.0% last week
from the last week in October. That wasn't the first sign of severe
weakness in sales. There was one weekly decline last month and sales
were down during each week of September, but the decline did lower the
starting level of sales this month 0.7% below the October average.
During all of October sales fell 1.0% from September following that
month's 1.9% drop.

The level of sales during the latest week remained near
the lowest since December of last year.


During the last ten years there has been a 59% correlation
between the y/y change in chain store sales and the change in nonauto
retail sales less gasoline.

The ICSC-Goldman
Sachs retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the
same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of
seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney,
Sears and Wal-Mart.


Portending further weakness in consumer spending was a 0.3%
dip in the weekly leading indicator of chain store sales from
ICSC-Goldman Sachs. The index level was, however, 6.1% below the year
ago level at the lowest level since 1996.
The chain store sales figures are available in Haver's SURVEYW
database.
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS
(SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">11/08/08</th>
<th scope="col">10/31/08</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain
Store Sales</td>
<td>477.2</td>
<td>482.0</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
German Investors A Bit Less
Pessimistic About The Outlook Merchants In Japan More
Pessimistic Than Ever 
by <a href="/comment/Curley.html">
Louise Curley</a> November 11, 2008


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081111f.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Investors in Germany appear to be encouraged by the steps the
central bank and the government have taken in recent weeks to deal with
the economic slowdown. The European Central Bank reduced it key rate by
50 basis points on October 8 and is expected to reduce it by another 50
basis points on November 12 binging it to 3.25%. In addition, the
German government passed a $64 billion stimulus package on November
4.In the latest ZEW survey, the excess of pessimists over optimists
regarding future conditions declined to 53.5% in November from 63.0% in
October. This still a far cry from the historical average of an excess
of optimists of 27.1%.In appraising the current situation, German
investors have become more and more pessimistic--or perhaps more
realistic. From an excess of optimists over pessimists of 17% in July,
there is now an excess of pessimists over optimists of 50.4% viewing
the current situation. The ZEW indicators for current and expected
conditions, together with recession shadings for Germany, are shown in
the first chart.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081111g.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
In Japan, the merchants who make up the Economy Watchers
Diffusion Index have reported worsening conditions for both for the
present and for the future outlooks in almost every month since mid
2007, when the sub prime problem in the U. S. first surfaced.
Currently, these indexes are at all time lows as can be seen in the
second chart, which plots the history of the diffusion indexes and the
recession shading for Japan. The Bank of Japan recently cut its key
interest rate to 0.3% from 0.5%, but little has been done in the way of
fiscal stimulus.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"></th>
<th scope="col">Nov 08</th>
<th scope="col">Oct&nbsp; 08&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Sep&nbsp; 07&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Aug 08&nbsp; &nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Jul&nbsp;
08&nbsp;&nbsp;</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">Germany ZEW (% balance)</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Current
Situation</td>
<td>-50.4</td>
<td>-35.9</td>
<td>-1.0</td>
<td>-9.2</td>
<td>17.0</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Future
Conditions</td>
<td>-53.5</td>
<td>-63.0</td>
<td>-41.1</td>
<td>-55.5</td>
<td>-63.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Japan Economy Watchers
Survey (Dif. Index)&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Current
Conditions</td>
<td>n.a.</td>
<td>22.6</td>
<td>28.0</td>
<td>28.3</td>
<td>29.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Future
Conditions</td>
<td>n.a.</td>
<td>25.2</td>
<td>32.1</td>
<td>32.0</td>
<td>30.8</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081110e.jpg" width="353">
Inflation is beginning to take a back seat in the deliberations of Central Bankers. The financial crisis, rising unemployment and declining production are overshadowing inflation fears at the same time that these fears are lessening. No matter the actual level of inflation, incoming data are showing that inflation rates are declining worldwide.
Today Egypt, Greece, Latvia and the Czech Republic reported their Consumer Price Indexes for October. The inflation rate as measured by the year-to-year increase in the CPI has recently been declining at varying degrees of speed in each country. Egypt, with inflation over 20%, has seen its inflation rate decline in the last two months from 23.8% in August to 20.1% in October. Another high inflation rate country, Latvia, has experienced declines in its inflation rate in the last five months, from 17.7% in June to 13.8% in October. Greece and the Czech Republic with relatively low inflation rates have nevertheless also witnessed declines in their inflation rates. Inflation in Greece has come down to 3.9% in October from 4.8% in June, and to 6.0% from 6.7%, respectively, in the Czech republic. The &quot;core&quot; inflation rate in the Czech Republic has declined to 1.65 % in October from 2.64 % in June. Inflation rates for the four countries are shown in the first chart.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081110f.jpg" width="353">
Dramatic declines in commodity prices over the past year are responsible for much of the improved inflation outlook worldwide. The second chart shows the prices of wheat, copper and oil over the past year.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">INFLATION RATES&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 08</th>
<th scope="col">Sep&nbsp;&nbsp; 08&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Aug 08&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Jul&nbsp; 08&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Jun 08&nbsp;</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Czech Republic: Total</td>
<td>6.0</td>
<td>6.6</td>
<td>6.5</td>
<td>6.9</td>
<td>6.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Czech Republic: Core</td>
<td>1.65</td>
<td>2.54</td>
<td>2.54</td>
<td>2.64</td>
<td>2.64</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Greece: Total</td>
<td>3.90</td>
<td>4.58</td>
<td>4.68</td>
<td>4.83</td>
<td>4.89</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Egypt: Total</td>
<td>20.13</td>
<td>21.52</td>
<td>23.79</td>
<td>22.15</td>
<td>20.22</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Latvia: Total</td>
<td>13.73</td>
<td>14.88</td>
<td>15.72</td>
<td>16.61</td>
<td>17.74</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Inflation is beginning to take a back seat in the deliberations of Central Bankers. The financial crisis, rising unemployment and declining production are overshadowing inflation fears at the same time that these fears are lessening. [...]

Declines in Commodity Prices Leading to Lower Inflation Rates Worldwide

Robert Brusca

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081110d.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The OECD trend-adjusted cyclical leading indicators showed a
clear pattern of growth deteriorating in the OECD region. The downturn
is of increasing severity. Even Japan after a brief flirtation with
improving is getting weaker again. Over 3, 6 and 12 months it is Europe
that is now declining the most rapidly.
The OECD prefers to look at these indicators over six months.
On that basis the weakness is just as present. As we prepare for the
G-20 meeting the OECD area is shrinking rapidly.
Over six months the pace of decline for the OECD is at a rate
of 6.5%. Six months ago the six month pace for that index was -2%. One
year ago the pace was just -0.8%. And 18n months ago that pace was an
increase of 2.5%. All that
amounts to a pretty fast drop off. That is the sort of thing that is
typical, not of a slowdown, but of a recession.


<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr><th colspan="5" scope="col"> OECD Trend-Restored Leading Indicators</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td colspan="5" class="firstcol">Growth Progression-SAAR</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>3Mos</td>
<td>6Mos</td>
<td>12mos</td>
<td>Yr-Ago</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">OECD</td>
<td>-9.8%</td>
<td>-6.5%</td>
<td>-4.3%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">OECD 7</td>
<td>-11.1%</td>
<td>-6.7%</td>
<td>-5.0%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">OECD Europe</td>
<td>-12.1%</td>
<td>-9.2%</td>
<td>-5.8%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">OECD Japan</td>
<td>-6.8%</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-4.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">OECD US</td>
<td>-10.6%</td>
<td>-5.6%</td>
<td>-5.3%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td colspan="5" class="firstcol">Six month readings at 6-Mo
Intervals</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>Recent six</td>
<td>6Mo Ago</td>
<td>12Mo Ago</td>
<td>18MO Ago</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">OECD</td>
<td>-6.5%</td>
<td>-2.0%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">OECD 7</td>
<td>-6.7%</td>
<td>-3.2%</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">OECD Europe</td>
<td>-9.2%</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">OECD Japan</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>-7.8%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">OECD US</td>
<td>-5.6%</td>
<td>-5.0%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="5" class="firstcol">Slowdowns indicated by BOLD RED.</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

The OECD trend-adjusted cyclical leading indicators showed a clear pattern of growth deteriorating in the OECD region. The downturn is of increasing severity. Even Japan after a brief flirtation with improving is getting weaker again. [...]

OECD Slowdown is Broad-Based and More Severe

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081110c.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
EMU IP is sinking fast. Add Italy and France to the list of
large EMU countries with industrial output dropping like a stone. The
Q3 growth rates for IP in France and in Italy each are negative,
Italy&#8217;s drop is at a huge -8.4% pace while France&#8217;s drop is a still
weak at -2.7%. In Italy
consumer goods, capital goods and intermediate goods output each is
falling. Transportation is twice as weak in Italy as it is in France
for the quarter. In France intermediate goods output is even a bit
weaker than it is in Italy in Q3 but the drop in output of capital
goods is quite a bit less severe and consumer goods output in France
continued to rise strongly in Q3. French consumer goods output, in
fact, has risen in each month of the third quarter as well.
On balance, as the accompanying chart shows, IP is falling
rapidly in Germany, Italy and France. The drop in France shows some
signs of leveling off in its pace of decline over the past few months
while Italy and Germany are still plunging at what seem to be
accelerating rates of decline. Italy &#8217;s pattern of decline is a bit
more complicated than that for Germany and France. But Germany has the
most severe weakness. While it has so far the smallest Yr/Yr drop, its
output has decelerated more sharply since German output was growing so
much more strongly until early 2008 when the pace of increase suddenly
and sharply moved lower and into a state of decline.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="8" scope="col">French IP
Excluding Construction </th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">Saar except m/m</td>
<td>Sep-08</td>
<td>Aug-08</td>
<td>Jul-08</td>
<td>3-mo</td>
<td>6-mo</td>
<td>12-mo</td>
<td>Quarter-to-date</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">IP total</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>-4.2%</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>-2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Consumer</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>8.2%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Capital</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>-3.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>-4.1%</td>
<td>-7.2%</td>
<td>-4.4%</td>
<td>-5.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="8" class="firstcol">Memo</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Auto</td>
<td>-3.1%</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>-14.8%</td>
<td>-8.3%</td>
<td>-9.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td colspan="8" class="firstcol">Italy IP Excluding
Construction</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">Saar except m/m</td>
<td>Sep-08</td>
<td>Aug-08</td>
<td>Jul-08</td>
<td>3-mo</td>
<td>6-mo</td>
<td>12-mo</td>
<td>Quarter-to-date</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">IP-MFG</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>-12.1%</td>
<td>-8.0%</td>
<td>-5.7%</td>
<td>-8.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Consumer</td>
<td>-3.3%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>-18.0%</td>
<td>-6.5%</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
<td>-10.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Capital</td>
<td>-2.5%</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>-14.9%</td>
<td>-11.1%</td>
<td>-8.2%</td>
<td>-13.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate</td>
<td>-2.6%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-7.2%</td>
<td>-5.9%</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
<td>-3.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="8" class="firstcol">Memo</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Transportation</td>
<td>-5.7%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>-3.9%</td>
<td>-27.2%</td>
<td>-21.1%</td>
<td>-13.1%</td>
<td>-22.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

EMU IP is sinking fast. Add Italy and France to the list of large EMU countries with industrial output dropping like a stone. The Q3 growth rates for IP in France and in Italy each are negative, Italy’s drop is at a huge -8.4% pace [...]

IP Dropping Fast in Key EMU Countries

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081110b.jpg" width="353">
The National Association of Realtors reported that September pending sales of existing homes fell 4.6% from the prior month. Sales had risen 7.5% during August. Consensus expectations were for a slightly more moderate m/m drop.
Despite the latest decline, the level of sales on a three-month basis was up 6.6% from its March low.
The home sales figures are analogous to the new home sales data from the Commerce Department in that they measure existing home sales when the sales contract is signed, not at the time the sale is closed. The series dates back to 2001.
The Mortgage Meltdown, Financial Markets, and the Economy is adapted from a speech by San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Janet Yellen and it can be found <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2008/el2008-35-36.pdf">here</a>.
Across the country&#39;s regions the pattern of recent sales movements has been very erratic. Sales in the West led the September increase with a 3.7% m/m rise on the heels of an 18.4% spurt upward in August. The latest was the highest level of sales since early 2006. But that was all of the good news in the latest home sales report. Sales in the Northeast slumped 16.8% m/m to a new low for the series. Sales in the South fell 7.9% and the decline reversed most of the modest firming of sales during the prior three months. Home sales in the Midwest ticked down 0.7% though sales still were a moderate 12.4% higher than the March low.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081110a.jpg" width="353">
Weak home sales are encouraging potential sellers to keep their homes off the market. The Realtors Association indicated in an earlier report that the number of homes on the market and available for sale fell a not seasonally adjusted 1.6% (-2.4% y/y) after a 5.2% August decline. That was the second y/y decline since early 2005.
At the current sales rate there was a 9.9 months&#39; supply of homes on the market, the lowest since February but still higher than 8.9 months last year and 6.5 months during 2006. For single family homes the months&#39; supply fell to 9.4, the lowest since March but still well above the 8.7 average of last year.
The median sales price of an existing single family home fell 5.7% (-9.0% y/y) during September. Prices were down 16.3% from their peak during June of last year. For single family homes, prices fell 5.6% (-8.6% y/y) and they were off 16.8% from last year&#39;s June peak.
The pending home sales data are available in Haver&#39;s PREALTOR database and the number of homes on the market and prices are in the REALTOR database.
The Federal Reserve Board and the U.S. Treasury announced the restructuring of the government&#39;s financial support to the American International Group (AIG) and the text of the announcement can be found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/other/20081110a.htm">here</a>
What Is Liquidity Risk? also is from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and it is available <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2008/el2008-33.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Pending Home Sales (2001=100)&nbsp;</a></th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>89.2</td>
<td>&nbsp;93.5</td>
<td>&nbsp;&nbsp; 1.6%</td>
<td>95.7</td>
<td>112.1&nbsp;</td>
<td>124.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Northeast</td>
<td>66.4</td>
<td>79.8</td>
<td>-9.4</td>
<td>85.6</td>
<td>98.5</td>
<td>108.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Midwest</td>
<td>83.3</td>
<td>83.9</td>
<td>-3.1</td>
<td>89.6</td>
<td>102.0</td>
<td>116.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; South</td>
<td>89.0</td>
<td>96.6</td>
<td>-11.3</td>
<td>107.3</td>
<td>127.3</td>
<td>134.8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; West</td>
<td>113.6</td>
<td>109.5</td>
<td>39.6</td>
<td>92.1</td>
<td>109.5</td>
<td>128.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The National Association of Realtors reported that September pending sales of existing homes fell 4.6% from the prior month. Sales had risen 7.5% during August. Consensus expectations were for a slightly more moderate m/m drop. [...]

U.S. Pending Home Sales Retraced Most of August Rise; Trend Still Up

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081110b.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The National Association of Realtors reported that September
pending sales of existing homes fell 4.6% from the prior month. Sales
had risen 7.5% during August. Consensus expectations were for a
slightly more moderate m/m drop.
Despite the latest decline, the level of sales on a
three-month basis was up 6.6% from its March low.
The home sales figures are analogous to the new home sales
data from the Commerce Department in that they measure existing home
sales when the sales contract is signed, not at the time the sale is
closed. The series dates back to 2001.
The Mortgage Meltdown, Financial Markets, and
the Economy is adapted from a speech by San Francisco
Federal Reserve Bank President Janet Yellen and it can be found <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2008/el2008-35-36.pdf">here</a>.
Across the country's regions the pattern of recent sales
movements has been very erratic. Sales in the West led the September
increase with a 3.7% m/m rise on the heels of an 18.4% spurt upward in
August. The latest was the highest level of sales since early 2006. But
that was all of the good news in the latest home sales report. Sales in
the Northeast slumped 16.8% m/m to a new low for the series. Sales in
the South fell 7.9% and the decline reversed most of the modest firming
of sales during the prior three months. Home sales in the Midwest
ticked down 0.7% though sales still were a moderate 12.4% higher than
the March low.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081110a.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Weak home sales are encouraging potential sellers to keep
their homes off the market. The Realtors Association indicated in an
earlier report that the number of homes on the market and available for
sale fell a not seasonally adjusted 1.6% (-2.4% y/y) after a 5.2%
August decline. That was the second y/y decline since early 2005.
At the current sales rate there was a 9.9 months' supply of
homes on the market, the lowest since February but still higher than
8.9 months last year and 6.5 months during 2006. For single family
homes the months' supply fell to 9.4, the lowest since March but still
well above the 8.7 average of last year.
The median sales price of an existing single family home fell
5.7% (-9.0% y/y) during September. Prices were down 16.3% from their
peak during June of last year. For single family homes, prices fell
5.6% (-8.6% y/y) and they were off 16.8% from last year's June peak.
The pending home sales data are available in Haver's PREALTOR
database and the number of homes on the market and prices are
in the REALTOR database.
The Federal Reserve Board and the U.S. Treasury
announced the restructuring of the government's financial support to
the American International Group (AIG) and the text of the
announcement can be found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/press/other/20081110a.htm">here</a>
What Is Liquidity Risk? also is
from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and it is available <a href="http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2008/el2008-33.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Pending
Home Sales (2001=100)&nbsp;</a></th>
<th scope="col">September</th>
<th scope="col">August</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>89.2</td>
<td>&nbsp;93.5</td>
<td>&nbsp;&nbsp; 1.6%</td>
<td>95.7</td>
<td>112.1&nbsp;</td>
<td>124.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Northeast</td>
<td>66.4</td>
<td>79.8</td>
<td>-9.4</td>
<td>85.6</td>
<td>98.5</td>
<td>108.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Midwest</td>
<td>83.3</td>
<td>83.9</td>
<td>-3.1</td>
<td>89.6</td>
<td>102.0</td>
<td>116.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; South</td>
<td>89.0</td>
<td>96.6</td>
<td>-11.3</td>
<td>107.3</td>
<td>127.3</td>
<td>134.8</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; West</td>
<td>113.6</td>
<td>109.5</td>
<td>39.6</td>
<td>92.1</td>
<td>109.5</td>
<td>128.6</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
OECD Slowdown is Broad-Based andMore Severe 
by <a href="/comment/Brusca.html">Robert
Brusca</a> November 10, 2008


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081110d.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The OECD trend-adjusted cyclical leading indicators showed a
clear pattern of growth deteriorating in the OECD region. The downturn
is of increasing severity. Even Japan after a brief flirtation with
improving is getting weaker again. Over 3, 6 and 12 months it is Europe
that is now declining the most rapidly.
The OECD prefers to look at these indicators over six months.
On that basis the weakness is just as present. As we prepare for the
G-20 meeting the OECD area is shrinking rapidly.
Over six months the pace of decline for the OECD is at a rate
of 6.5%. Six months ago the six month pace for that index was -2%. One
year ago the pace was just -0.8%. And 18n months ago that pace was an
increase of 2.5%. All that
amounts to a pretty fast drop off. That is the sort of thing that is
typical, not of a slowdown, but of a recession.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="5" scope="col"> OECD
Trend-Restored Leading Indicators</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td colspan="5" class="firstcol">Growth
Progression-SAAR</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>3Mos</td>
<td>6Mos</td>
<td>12mos</td>
<td>Yr-Ago</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">OECD</td>
<td>-9.8%</td>
<td>-6.5%</td>
<td>-4.3%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">OECD 7</td>
<td>-11.1%</td>
<td>-6.7%</td>
<td>-5.0%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">OECD Europe</td>
<td>-12.1%</td>
<td>-9.2%</td>
<td>-5.8%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">OECD Japan</td>
<td>-6.8%</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-4.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">OECD US</td>
<td>-10.6%</td>
<td>-5.6%</td>
<td>-5.3%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td colspan="5" class="firstcol">Six
month readings at 6-Mo
Intervals</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>Recent six</td>
<td>6Mo Ago</td>
<td>12Mo Ago</td>
<td>18MO Ago</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">OECD</td>
<td>-6.5%</td>
<td>-2.0%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">OECD 7</td>
<td>-6.7%</td>
<td>-3.2%</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">OECD Europe</td>
<td>-9.2%</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">OECD Japan</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>-7.8%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">OECD US</td>
<td>-5.6%</td>
<td>-5.0%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="5" class="firstcol">Slowdowns
indicated by BOLD RED.</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
IP Dropping Fast in Key
EMUCountries 
by <a href="/comment/Brusca.html">Robert
Brusca</a> November 10, 2008


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081110c.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
EMU IP is sinking fast. Add Italy and France to the list of
large EMU countries with industrial output dropping like a stone. The
Q3 growth rates for IP in France and in Italy each are negative,
Italy&#8217;s drop is at a huge -8.4% pace while France&#8217;s drop is a still
weak at -2.7%. In Italy
consumer goods, capital goods and intermediate goods output each is
falling. Transportation is twice as weak in Italy as it is in France
for the quarter. In France intermediate goods output is even a bit
weaker than it is in Italy in Q3 but the drop in output of capital
goods is quite a bit less severe and consumer goods output in France
continued to rise strongly in Q3. French consumer goods output, in
fact, has risen in each month of the third quarter as well.
On balance, as the accompanying chart shows, IP is falling
rapidly in Germany, Italy and France. The drop in France shows some
signs of leveling off in its pace of decline over the past few months
while Italy and Germany are still plunging at what seem to be
accelerating rates of decline. Italy &#8217;s pattern of decline is a bit
more complicated than that for Germany and France. But Germany has the
most severe weakness. While it has so far the smallest Yr/Yr drop, its
output has decelerated more sharply since German output was growing so
much more strongly until early 2008 when the pace of increase suddenly
and sharply moved lower and into a state of decline.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="8" scope="col">French IP
Excluding Construction </th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">Saar except m/m</td>
<td>Sep-08</td>
<td>Aug-08</td>
<td>Jul-08</td>
<td>3-mo</td>
<td>6-mo</td>
<td>12-mo</td>
<td>Quarter-to-date</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">IP total</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>-4.2%</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>-2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Consumer</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>8.2%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Capital</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>-3.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>-4.1%</td>
<td>-7.2%</td>
<td>-4.4%</td>
<td>-5.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="8" class="firstcol">Memo</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Auto</td>
<td>-3.1%</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>-14.8%</td>
<td>-8.3%</td>
<td>-9.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td colspan="8" class="firstcol">Italy
IP Excluding
Construction</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">Saar except m/m</td>
<td>Sep-08</td>
<td>Aug-08</td>
<td>Jul-08</td>
<td>3-mo</td>
<td>6-mo</td>
<td>12-mo</td>
<td>Quarter-to-date</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">IP-MFG</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>-12.1%</td>
<td>-8.0%</td>
<td>-5.7%</td>
<td>-8.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Consumer</td>
<td>-3.3%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>-2.3%</td>
<td>-18.0%</td>
<td>-6.5%</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
<td>-10.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Capital</td>
<td>-2.5%</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>-0.5%</td>
<td>-14.9%</td>
<td>-11.1%</td>
<td>-8.2%</td>
<td>-13.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate</td>
<td>-2.6%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-7.2%</td>
<td>-5.9%</td>
<td>-5.4%</td>
<td>-3.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="8" class="firstcol">Memo</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Transportation</td>
<td>-5.7%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>-3.9%</td>
<td>-27.2%</td>
<td>-21.1%</td>
<td>-13.1%</td>
<td>-22.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Declines in Commodity Prices
Leading to Lower Inflation Rates Worldwide 
by <a href="/comment/Curley.html">Louise
Curley</a> November 10, 2008


<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081110e.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Inflation is beginning to take a back seat in the
deliberations of Central Bankers. The financial crisis, rising
unemployment and declining production are overshadowing inflation fears
at the same time that these fears are lessening. No matter the actual
level of inflation, incoming data are showing that inflation rates are
declining worldwide.
Today Egypt, Greece, Latvia and the Czech Republic reported
their Consumer Price Indexes for October. The inflation rate as
measured by the year-to-year increase in the CPI has recently been
declining at varying degrees of speed in each country. Egypt, with
inflation over 20%, has seen its inflation rate decline in the last two
months from 23.8% in August to 20.1% in October. Another high inflation
rate country, Latvia, has experienced declines in its inflation rate in
the last five months, from 17.7% in June to 13.8% in October. Greece
and the Czech Republic with relatively low inflation rates have
nevertheless also witnessed declines in their inflation rates.
Inflation in Greece has come down to 3.9% in October from 4.8% in June,
and to 6.0% from 6.7%, respectively, in the Czech republic. The "core"
inflation rate in the Czech Republic has declined to 1.65 % in October
from 2.64 % in June. Inflation rates for the four countries are shown
in the first chart.<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/081110f.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Dramatic declines in commodity prices over the past year are
responsible for much of the improved inflation outlook worldwide. The
second chart shows the prices of wheat, copper and oil over the past
year.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">INFLATION
RATES&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 08</th>
<th scope="col">Sep&nbsp;&nbsp;
08&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Aug 08&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Jul&nbsp; 08&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Jun 08&nbsp;</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Czech Republic:
Total</td>
<td>6.0</td>
<td>6.6</td>
<td>6.5</td>
<td>6.9</td>
<td>6.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Czech Republic: Core</td>
<td>1.65</td>
<td>2.54</td>
<td>2.54</td>
<td>2.64</td>
<td>2.64</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Greece: Total</td>
<td>3.90</td>
<td>4.58</td>
<td>4.68</td>
<td>4.83</td>
<td>4.89</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Egypt: Total</td>
<td>20.13</td>
<td>21.52</td>
<td>23.79</td>
<td>22.15</td>
<td>20.22</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Latvia: Total</td>
<td>13.73</td>
<td>14.88</td>
<td>15.72</td>
<td>16.61</td>
<td>17.74</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

Negative US inflation surprises leading G10 down

Deflation continues in China

Incoming data surprising on downside in US; positive surprises elsewhere

FOMC expects more inflation and less growth than in March

With escalation of Israel/Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has recently surged while US trade policy uncertainty has ebbed

Renewed supply chain pressures point to a rebound in global inflation ahead

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary policy easing

Apart from the US, productivity is moribund

Financial market concerns ebb even though policy uncertainty continues to soar

US tariff revenues nearly doubled in April

Even with expected tariff-induced increases in inflation, BCFF forecasters look for a more aggressive round of monetary easing

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

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The Producer Price Index for final demand was unchanged (2.3% y/y) in June after rising 0.3% in May, revised from 0.1%, and easing 0.3% in April, revised from a 0.2% fall, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The Action Economic Forecast Survey expected a 0.2% increase in June. Producer prices excluding food, energy & trade services also were unchanged (2.5% y/y) after a 0.1% May gain, and falling 0.2% in April, which was revised from -0.1%. A 0.2% increase had been expected.

Food prices rose 0.2% (3.3% y/y) in June after holding steady in May. Finished consumer food prices rose 0.2% (3.7% y/y) after increasing in May. Energy prices for final demand rose 0.6% (-2.6% y/y) last month after falling 0.3% in May. Finished consumer energy prices rose 0.9% last month (-1.7% y/y) after a 0.6% increase.

Final demand services prices continued to hold back overall pricing pressure last month with a 0.1% dip (+2.7% y/y), following a 0.4% increase. Final demand trade services prices held steady (+2.9% y/y) after surging 1.1%, while the trade of finished goods index remained unchanged (+2.8% y/y) following a 1.2% surge. Transportation & warehousing prices fell 0.2% (+2.5% y/y) after a 0.4% gain in May. Prices for final demand services less trade, transportation, and warehousing eased 0.1% last month (+2.6% y/y) after improving 0.1% in May.

The price index for final demand goods less foods & energy increased 0.3% (2.5% y/y) in June following a 0.2% increase. Nondurable consumer goods prices less food & energy rose 0.1% (2.3% y/y) after a 0.2% increase. Durable consumer goods prices rose 0.4% (2.4% y/y) following a 0.5% rise. The private capital equipment price index improved 0.3% (3.2% y/y) for the second straight month. Government prices less food & energy rose 0.4% (2.9% y/y) after increasing 0.2% in May.

Construction costs rose 0.3% (1.6% y/y) in June after rising 0.2% in May.

Prices for intermediate demand of processed goods edged 0.1% higher (1.9% y/y) in June for the second consecutive month. Processed energy goods prices improved 0.6% following a 1.9% decline while processed foods and feeds prices fell 0.3% after rising 0.7% in May.

The PPI data are published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. Further detail is contained in **PPI** and **PPIR**. The expectations figures are available in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Unchanged monthly levels extend weakness earlier this year.
- Core price gain slows y/y.
- Final demand price index is steady; services prices decline.

U.S. Producer Price & Core Price Indexes Hold Steady in June

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Mortgage applications fell 10.0% (+18.4% y/y) in the week ending July 11, after rising 9.4% w/w (36.6% y/y) in the week ending July 4, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey. The latest reading broke the string of three consecutive w/w rises. Applications for loans to purchase a house fell 11.8% (+13.7% y/y) in the July 11 week, following a rise of 9.4% (25.4% y/y) in the July 4 week. Applications for loan refinancing dropped 7.4% (+25.2% y/y) after rising 9.2% (55.8% y/y) in the July 4 week.

The effective interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate loan rose 5bps to 7.00% in the week ending July 11, from 6.95% in the week ending July 4; it was up from a low of 6.29% in the September 20 week but down from a peak of 8.12% in the week of October 20, 2023. The rate on 15-year fixed-rate mortgages rose 12bps to 6.32% in the latest week from 6.20% in the July 4 week; it was up from a low of 5.60% in the September 20 week. The rate on 30-year Jumbo loans rose 6bps to 6.94% in the July 11 week from 6.88% in the July 4 week; it was up from a low of 6.57% in the September 13 week. Meanwhile, the rate on a 5-year ARM edged down 4bps to 6.24% in the latest week from 6.28% in the July 4 week; it was above a low of 5.84% in the September 13 week.

The share of applications for refinancing an existing loan rose to 41.1% of total applications in the week ending July 11 up from 40.0% in the week ending July 4. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity dropped to 7.1% in the July 11 week from 7.7% in the July 4 week.

The average size of a mortgage loan, down for the fourth week in five, fell 2.8% (+3.0% y/y) to $375,500 in the July 11 week, following a decline of 1.3% w/w (+4.5% y/y) to $386,400 in the July 4 week. The average size of a purchase loan edged down 0.9% (+2.9% y/y) to $428,900 in the July 11 week, after declining 2.5% (+1.8% y/y) to $432,600 in the July 4 week. The average size of a loan to refinance a mortgage dropped 5.6% (+6.1% y/y) to $299,200 in the latest week, after rising 1.1% (18.8% y/y) to $317,100 in the July 4 week.

The Mortgage Bankers Association Survey covers 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database.

- Both purchase applications and refinancing loan applications fell in July 11 week.
- Effective interest rate on 30-year fixed-rate loans rose to 7.0%.
- Average loan size declines for the fourth time in five weeks.

U.S. Mortgage Applications Dropped 10.0% in the Latest Week

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The Consumer Price Index rose 0.3% in June after rising 0.1% in May and increasing 0.2% in April. A 0.3% rise had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The 2.7% y/y increase in the headline CPI in June compared to 2.4% in May and remained below the 9.1% peak in June 2022. The CPI excluding food & energy increased 0.2% last month after a 0.1% uptick in May and a 0.2% April gain. A 0.3% rise had been expected. The 2.9% y/y June rise compared to 2.8% in May, still well below the 6.6% peak in September 2022.

Energy prices rose 0.9% (-0.8% y/y) last month after falling 1.0% in May. Gasoline prices strengthened 1.0% (-8.3% y/y) after falling 2.6% in May. Fuel oil prices rose 1.3% (-4.7% y/y) after rising 0.9% in April. Natural gas prices rose 0.5% (14.2% y/y) following a 1.0% decline, and electricity prices gained 1.0% (5.8% y/y) after rising 0.9% in May.

Food prices rose 0.3% in June (3.0% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Egg prices fell 7.4% (+27.3% y/y), the third straight month of sharp decline. Meat, poultry & fish prices rose 0.8% (+4.1% y/y) after easing 0.1%, while dairy product prices declined 0.3% (0.9% y/y) after easing 0.1% in May. Cereal & bakery product costs eased 0.2% (0.9% y/y) after a 1.1% increase while fruit & vegetable prices rose 0.9% (0.7% y/y), following a 0.3% gain. Nonalcoholic beverage prices strengthened 1.4% (4.4% y/y) in June after falling 0.3% in May.

Goods prices less food and energy rose 0.2 (0.7% y/y) in June after holding steady in May. Prices of used cars and trucks fell 0.7% (+2.8% y/y) last month, after falling 0.5% in May, while new vehicle costs weakened 0.3% (+0.2% y/y) for the second consecutive month. Apparel prices rose 0.4% in June (-0.5% y/y) and reversed the prior month’s 0.4% decline. Appliance prices surged 1.9% (0.8% y/y), after increasing 0.8%. Home furnishings prices jumped 1.0% (1.7% y/y) after rising 0.3%. Recreation	 product costs rose 0.8% (-0.8% y/y) in May, doubling the May increase. Education & communication product costs held steady last month (-3.3% y/y) after rising 0.1% in May. Medical care goods prices rose 0.1% (NSA, 0.2% y/y) after increasing 0.6% in May.

Services prices less energy moved up 0.3% (3.6% y/y) last month following a 0.2% May gain. Shelter prices rose 0.2% (3.8% y/y) last month after two months of 0.3% increase as owners’ equivalent rent of primary residences increased 0.3% (4.2% y/y), the same as in May. The cost of lodging away from home declined 2.9% (-2.5% y/y), the fourth straight month of decline. Rents of primary residences gained 0.2% (3.8% y/y), the same as in May. Transportation service prices moved up 0.2% (3.4% y/y) after easing 0.2% as the cost of motor vehicle insurance edged up 0.1% (6.1% y/y) in June after strengthening 0.7% in May. Public transportation costs increased 0.4% (-2.7% y/y) after falling 2.5% during May. The cost of medical services increased 0.6% (3.4% y/y) after a 0.2% increase, and the cost of recreation services rose 0.2% (3.8% y/y) after slipping 0.1% in May. Education & communication services prices rose 0.1% (1.1% y/y) for the second consecutive month.

The Consumer Price figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. The expectations figure is contained in the **AS1REPNA** database.

**The Economic Implications of Tariff Increases** from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco can be found [here](https://www.frbsf.org/research-and-insights/publications/economic-letter/2025/07/economic-implications-of-tariff-increases/#wp--skip-link--target).

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- Monthly increase is highest in five months. Core gain moves up minimally.
- Energy costs post solid increase.
- Both core goods and core services prices move higher.

U.S. Consumer Price Index Strengthens in June

Sandy Batten

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The Empire State Manufacturing Index of General Business Conditions jumped nearly 22 points to 5.5 in July from -16.0 in June, according to the Empire State Manufacturing Survey released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. A reading of -8.5 for July had been expected by the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The unexpected positive reading in July indicated that business activity in New York State increased for the first month since February. The percentage of respondents reporting an increase in general business conditions in July rose to 32.4% from 16.9% in June while the percentage reporting a decrease fell to 26.9% from 32.9%. The July survey was conducted between July 2 and July 10.

The headline index just reflects the answer to a single question concerning the state of economic activity. Haver Analytics calculates a composite index from the five major components, which is comparable to the ISM manufacturing index. This calculated index increased to 54.7 in July, its highest reading since July 2022 and well above the critical 50 value that separates expansion from contraction, from 48.6 in June. The calculated index is the average of five diffusion indexes: new orders, shipments, employment, supplier deliveries and inventories with equal weights (20% each).

The July jump reflected meaningful increases in most component indexes. The new orders index rose to 2.0 from -14.2. The shipments index increased to 11.5 from -7.2. Unfilled orders edged up to -6.4 from -8.3. Delivery times lengthened to 8.3, the highest reading since July 2022 and possibly an early indication that trade policy uncertainty is beginning to disrupt some supply chains, from 1.8 in June. Moreover, the relatively new supply availability index fell deeper into negative territory at -11.0 versus -8.1 in June. Inventories rose markedly to 15.6 in July, the highest reading since November 2022, from 0.9 in June.

On the labor front, the index for the number of employees rose five points to 9.2, and the average workweek index rose to 4.2, the first positive reading in eight months. This marks the first time that both indexes have been positive since 2022, suggesting that both employment and hours worked increased in July. Sixteen percent of respondents reported an increase in employment, the highest since March 2023, versus 14.6% in June while only 6.9% reported a decline in employment, the lowest since June 2022, down from 9.9% in June.

The prices paid index rose nine points to 56.0, pointing to a pickup in input price increases, while the prices received index held steady at 25.7, suggesting that selling price increases remained moderate though elevated relative to normal pre-pandemic levels. Slightly more than 29% of respondents reported an increase in prices received in July, the same as in June.

Firms remained fairly optimistic about the outlook. The index for future general business conditions edged up to 24.1 from 21.2 in June, suggesting that, on the whole, businesses expect activity to increase in the months ahead. New orders and shipments are expected to increase, and supply availability is expected to be little changed. Capital spending plans jumped markedly to 9.2 in July from -7.3 in June and -6.7 in May.

The headline index reflects the answer to only one question concerning general business conditions and is not calculated from the components. The indexes in this report are diffusion indexes and measure the percentage of respondents indicating an increase minus the percentage indicating a decrease with zero separating expansion from contraction.

The New York Fed survey data are contained in Haver’s **SURVEYS** database. The expectations series is in Haver’s **AS1REPNA** database.

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- The first positive reading for the index since February.
- The July jump reflected widespread increases across components.
- Evidence of some nascent supply-chain problems.
- Outlook six months ahead continues to brighten.

FRBNY Empire State Manufacturing Index Jumped 22 points in July

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Retail gasoline prices for all grades held at an average $3.25 per gallon (-10.0% y/y) last week after falling from $3.29 in the last week of June. Prices remained above their low of $3.13 in the week of December 9. The recent high was $3.79 in the week ending April 22, 2024. Their all-time high of $5.11 occurred in the week ending June 13, 2022. The retail price for on-highway diesel fuel improved to $3.76 per gallon (-1.8% y/y) in the week of July 14 after falling to $3.74 in the prior week. The latest diesel price stood well below a high of $4.63 in the week ending September 18, 2023 and a peak of $5.81 in the week ending June 20, 2022.

The price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil increased to $67.93 per barrel (-18.1% y/y) in the week ended July 11. The decline followed the prior week’s easing to $66.25 per barrel, but prices remained above a $59.04 low in the second week of May 2025. The cost of crude oil peaked at $120.46 in the week of June 10, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $66.98 per barrel. The price of European Brent crude rose to $71.77 per barrel (-17.3% y/y) in the week of July 11 after falling to $69.61 in the prior week. Prices remained below a recent high of $95.61 in the week of September 29, 2023 and below a peak of $127.40 in June 2022. The price was $70.96 yesterday.

Natural gas prices eased last week to an average $3.17/mmbtu (+40.3% y/y) in the week ended July 11, after falling to an average $3.19/mmbtu in the prior week. Prices remained well above a low of $1.40/mmbtu in the week of March 15, 2024 but below their peak of $9.56 in the week of August 26, 2022. Yesterday, the price was $3.21 per mmbtu.

Gasoline demand declined 1.0% y/y in the four weeks ending July 4 following a 0.1% y/y easing in the prior four weeks. Demand for all petroleum products weakened 1.6% y/y in the four weeks ending July 4 after a 1.1% y/y decline in the previous four-week period. Crude oil input to refineries rose 1.1% y/y in the four weeks ending July 4 after a 1.6% y/y gain in the prior four weeks.

Gasoline inventories eased 0.1% y/y in the week ending July 4 after a 0.2% y/y gain in the prior week. Residual fuel oil inventories fell 20.5% y/y in the week of July 4, after a 20.9% y/y fall in the prior week. Crude oil inventories rose 1.3% y/y in the week of July 4 after a 0.1% y/y rise in the previous week.

Measured in days’ supply, gasoline inventories fell to 25.0 days in the week of July 4 from 25.2 days in the prior week. The recent low was 22.9 days in the week of November 8, 2024. The supply of crude oil rose to 25.1 days in the week of July 4 from 24.6 days in the prior week, and remained below a high of 31.9 days in the week of March 3, 2023.

These data are reported by the Energy Information Administration of the U.S. Department of Energy. The price and supply/demand data can be found in Haver’s **WEEKLY** & **USENERGY** database.

- Gasoline prices stabilize.
- Crude oil prices increase slightly.
- Natural gas prices ease.


Economy in Brief: 2008

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U.S. Gasoline Prices Lowest Since February 2007. Demand Fell Further

U.S. Small Business Optimism Lowest Since 1975

U.S. Small Business Optimism Lowest Since 1975

Declines in Commodity Prices Leading to Lower Inflation Rates Worldwide

OECD Slowdown is Broad-Based and More Severe

IP Dropping Fast in Key EMU Countries

U.S. Pending Home Sales Retraced Most of August Rise; Trend Still Up

U.S. Pending Home Sales Retraced Most of August Rise; Trend Still Up