Economy in Brief: 2019

The trends The German trade surplus is waffling at a level lower than it was before July of last year (see Chart). Export and import growth rates have been declining as well. Import growth that has been stronger than export growth for [...]

Wholesale inventories fell 0.4% during September (+4.8% y/y) following a 0.1% August gain, revised from 0.2%. A 0.3% decline had been expected in the Informa Global Markets Survey. Durable goods inventories eased 0.1% (+6.9% y/y) in [...]

The weakening in September retail sales reported last month was very much in evidence in today's consumer credit report. Consumer Credit Outstanding increased $9.52 billion (4.9% y/y) during September following a $17.83 billion August [...]

On the face of it, September was not a good month for German industrial production. Output fell by 0.6% overall, it fell by 0.5% for consumer goods, it fell by 1.5% for capital goods and it fell by 1.3% for intermediate goods. But [...]

Initial applications for unemployment insurance fell to 211,000 (-4.3% y/y) during the week ended November 2 from 219,000 in the prior week, revised from 218,000. It was the lowest number of claims in four weeks. The Action Economics [...]

Both German orders and the EU Commission's PMI gauges for the EMU show a modest upturn in their recent releases. Both fared slightly better than expected. Both are still significantly weak; the sense of overachievement will not merit [...]

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its Mortgage Loan Index slipped 0.1% (+58.5% y/y) in the week ending November 1 after rising 0.6% w/w in the previous week. Purchase applications fell 2.5% w/w (+6.6% y/y) and reversed [...]

Productivity in the nonfarm business sector eased 0.3% at an annual rate (+1.4% y/y) during Q3'19 following a 2.5% Q2 rise, revised from 2.3%. It was the first decline in productivity since Q4'15. Expectations had been for a 0.9% rise [...]