Global| Nov 07 2019U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decline
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Initial applications for unemployment insurance fell to 211,000 (-4.3% y/y) during the week ended November 2 from 219,000 in the prior week, revised from 218,000. It was the lowest number of claims in four weeks. The Action Economics [...]
Initial applications for unemployment insurance fell to 211,000 (-4.3% y/y) during the week ended November 2 from 219,000 in the prior week, revised from 218,000. It was the lowest number of claims in four weeks. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 215,000 claims. The four-week moving average of initial claims edged higher to 215,250 from 215,000. During the last 20 years, there has been a 68% correlation between the number of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance slipped to 1.689 million during the week ended October 26 from 1.692 million in the week prior, revised from 1.690 million. The four-week moving average of claimants held steady at 1.687 million.
In the week ending October 26, the insured rate of unemployment of 1.2% was near the record low of 1.1% for the fifth straight week. Data on the insured unemployment rate dates back to 1971.
Insured rates of unemployment vary widely by state. During the week ending October 19, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.21%), Nebraska (0.21%), North Dakota (0.35%), Utah (0.41%) and New Hampshire (0.41%). The highest rates were in Pennsylvania (1.48%), Connecticut (1.55%), California (1.63%), New Jersey (1.82%), and Alaska (2.04%). Among the other largest states by population, the rate was 0.42% in Florida, 0.92% in Texas and 1.1% in New York. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 11/02/19 | 10/26/19 | 10/19/19 | Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 211 | 219 | 213 | -4.3 | 220 | 244 | 262 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,689 | 1,692 | 2.0 | 1,756 | 1,961 | 2,135 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.2 |
1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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