Economy in Brief: 2021

• Growth backs off slightly from record level. • Component movement weakens m/m. • Expectations for six months ahead ease again. The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City reported that its manufacturing sector business activity index [...]

The GfK climate index as estimated for June rose to a -7 reading. This lifts the reading to its lifetime standing at its 3rd percentile – still extremely weak. The components of the index lag by one month. Even so, economic [...]

• Regional sales declines are widespread. • Purchases remain constrained by limited supply. Pending home sales fell 4.4% (+51.7% y/y) during April following a 1.7% March rise, revised from 1.9%. Sales volume fell to the lowest level [...]

• Transportation orders drive the monthly decline in overall orders. • Core capital goods orders remain on a strong trajectory. • Shipments of durable goods and of core capital goods post healthy gains. Manufacturers' orders for [...]

• Consumer spending revised up while business & residential investment are strengthened. • Inventory & foreign trade effects are lessened. • Corporate profits improve. Real GDP surged 6.4% (SAAR) during Q1'21 (0.4% y/y), unrevised [...]

Navigating the twists and turns of economic and financial market data has never been easy. But the interplay between economic outcomes and financial market outcomes is often the most perplexing. Who would have thought, for example, [...]

• Initial state claims fall to yet another pandemic low. • State claims approaching range in which they have fluctuated during more normal times. • PUA claims also fell. Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 38,000 in the [...]

Household confidence rose in May; the services and manufacturing sectors generally improved by more on the month. Household confidence has climbed back up above its median value since the year 2000 with a ranking in its 53.7 [...]