Economy in Brief

Germany's inflation trends are on a clear upward path. Yr/Yr the headline rate is now on the cusp of excess at 1.9%. The Bundesbank used to put 2% as the upper bound for inflation when it held the reins. Now the ECB maintains that [...]

The larger Euro-Area economies and the UK show mixed results for December. While growth rates swooned over six months three-month growth rates for IP are back to where they were for yr/yr growth for the large economies - except for [...]

Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell sharply last week to 383,000, the lowest level since October 2008. The prior week's level was revised up slightly to 419,000 from 415,000. The decline was greater than expectations for [...]

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that overall mortgage applications fell 5.5% last week and reversed the prior week's increase. The decline left applications near the lowest level since 2008. Applications to refinance a [...]

The German trade surplus rose this month and has been moving erratically higher. In December exports grew by 0.5% as imports fell by 2.3% enlarging the surplus gap. But that has not been the general story. Over 12-months imports have [...]

Consumers grow tired of not spending. So last week, sales at chain stores rose 2.2% after four consecutive weeks of decline. The increase brought sales 0.8% above the January average which was down 2.3% from December. During the last [...]

Lately, gasoline prices have done little but rise. The pump price for regular gasoline last week rose three cents to $3.13 per gallon, its highest since October 2008. The latest was roughly double the December-2008 low of $1.61. [...]

Not surprisingly German orders and IP show similar characteristics. In the orders report capital goods are strong and consumption orders are weak. For the IP it is the same relative configuration, but with even weaker trends for [...]