Economy in Brief: 2016

Total retail sales & spending at restaurants increased 0.8% during October (4.3% y/y) following a 1.0% September rise, revised from 0.6%. A 0.6% increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The rise lifted [...]

While manufacturing PMIs have stabilized and showed some growth in the EMU, the industrial production index is lower in September and has fallen in two of the last three months. IP is up on balance over 12 months, but the last 12 [...]

Modest improvement in U.S. factory sector activity is lending support to industrial commodity prices. Since December, manufacturing sector production has been roughly unchanged following last year's 0.3% decline from December-to- [...]

The graph (on the left) is most useful for the discussion of whether inflation's rise is 'real' or not. The graph clearly shows that Germany's headline inflation is surging, rising from the ashes of declines to log an advance of 0.9% [...]

The U.S. Treasury Department reported that the federal government ran a budget deficit of $44.2 billion during October compared to a $136.6 billion deficit one year earlier. A $74.0 billion deficit was expected in the Action Economics [...]

Japanese machinery orders rose in September after falling for two months in a row. Core orders excluding large projects, like ships and electric power projects, showed a drop of 3.3% month-to-month, their second straight monthly drop. [...]

Initial claims for jobless insurance claims declined to 254,000 (-8.0% y/y) during the week ended November 5 following an unrevised increase to 265,000 claims in the week prior. It was the lowest level of claims in four weeks. The [...]

The latest data show the OECD LEIs are truly flat. Most OECD country-level or area LEIs still hover below the neutral position of 100 (with the EMU being the exception). The U.K. and China LEIs, while still below 100, each saw small [...]