Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060109b.jpg" width="353">
Statistics relating to the Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia and Slovenia were released today. These countries became members of the European Union in May, 2004 and, while it will be some time before they are able and/or willing to join the Euro Zone, it may be interesting to compare the various aspects of their economies with those of the Euro Zone as a whole. The data for these countries are found in the Haver database, EMERGECW.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060109c.jpg" width="353">
The December CPI and the unemployment rate were released for the Czech Republic. The first two charts compare prices and the unemployment rate in the Czech Republic and in the Euro Zone as a whole. When the harmonized Index of Prices for the Euro Zone, which is published on a 1996=100 basis is put on a 2000=100 basis for comparison with the Czech index, the levels and trends are very similar. The rate of unemployment, however, is higher in the Czech Republic than in the Euro Zone and it was only in mid 2004 that the difference between the two rates began to narrow.
Industrial production in Latvia rose 4.9% in November from October and was almost 6% over November, 2004. As shown in the third chart, the rise in production in Latvia has been much more vigorous than that in the Euro Zone as a whole.
Finally the merchandise trade balance in both Slovenia and Hungary has generally been negative, while that of the Euro Zone has, until recently, been positive. The fourth chart shows the merchandise trade deficit for Hungary and that of the Euro Zone as a whole. <img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060109d.jpg" width="353"><img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060109e.jpg" width="353"> 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"></th>
<th scope="col">Dec 05</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 05 </th>
<th scope="col">Dec 04</th>
<th scope="col">M/M % or Dif&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y % or &nbsp; Dif</th>
<th scope="col">2004&nbsp;&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2003&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2002&nbsp;</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;CZECH REPUBLIC</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; CPI&nbsp; (2000=100)</td>
<td>113.4</td>
<td>113.3</td>
<td>110.</td>
<td>0.09</td>
<td>2.25</td>
<td>109.7</td>
<td>106.7</td>
<td>106.6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
<td>8.75</td>
<td>8.63</td>
<td>9.34</td>
<td>0.12</td>
<td>-0.59</td>
<td>9.77</td>
<td>9.92</td>
<td>9.19</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"></td>
<td>Nov 05</td>
<td>Oct 05 </td>
<td>Nov 04</td>
<td>M/M % or Dif &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </td>
<td>Y/Y % or Dif</td>
<td>2004&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
<td>2003&nbsp;</td>
<td>2002&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;LATVIA</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Industrial Production&nbsp;</td>
<td>136.2</td>
<td>129.2</td>
<td>128.6</td>
<td>4.93</td>
<td>5.99</td>
<td>127.7</td>
<td>120.5</td>
<td>113.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">HUNGARY</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Trade Balance (Mil US$)</td>
<td>-411.7</td>
<td>-245.4</td>
<td>-378.7</td>
<td>-166.3</td>
<td>-33.0</td>
<td>-4764.8</td>
<td>-4667.3</td>
<td>-3275.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">SLOVENIA</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Trade Balance (Mil US$)</td>
<td>-192.7</td>
<td>-156.9</td>
<td>-143.2</td>
<td>-35.8</td>
<td>-49.5</td>
<td>-1456.5</td>
<td>-1120.7</td>
<td>-586.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Statistics relating to the Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia and Slovenia were released today. These countries became members of the European Union in May, 2004 and, while it will be some time before they are able and/or willing to join [...]

News from Central and Eastern Europe

Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060109a.jpg" width="353">
The 0.6% rise in the November Leading Index of the Major 7 OECD economies was the sixth consecutive monthly increase. The rise lifted the leaders&#39; six month growth rate to 2.7%, the best since July 2004.
During the last ten years there has been a 66% correlation between the change in the leading index and the q/q change in the GDP Volume Index for the Big Seven countries in the OECD.
The leaders in Japan again paced the gains which were broad based amongst countries. A 1.0% November rise was the largest since 2002 and the sixth consecutive monthly increase. The six month growth rate rose to 4.1% and its correlation with real economic growth in Japan has been a meaningful 42% during the last ten years.
The 0.7% rise in the U.S. leaders was the firmest since June and raised six month growth in the leaders to 2.4%, also the best since August of last year. The correlation between the leaders and real GDP growth has been a high 58% during the last ten years.
The Canadian leaders showed improvement. A 0.6% gain followed an upwardly revised 0.3% October increase and pulled six month growth positive for the first time in over a year at 0.9%. The correlation of the leaders&#39; growth with Canadian real GDP has been 49% during the last ten years.
Leaders in the European Union (15 countries) again rose by 0.4%, the sixth consecutive monthly increase and it raised the six month growth rate to 3.2%. During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between the change in the leading index and the q/q change in the GDP volume index for the European Union.
German leaders increased 0.8% for the second month. This seventh consecutive rise raised the six month growth rate to 5.8% but the correlation between the leaders and the change in the German GDP volume index has been a low 19% during the last ten years.
The French leaders gained 0.4% and pulled the six month growth rate 2.6%, its best in a year. The correlation between the leaders&#39; growth and France&#39;s GDP volume index has been 43% during the last ten years. The Italian leading index even managed 0.1% up tick but the six month growth remained negative at -0.6% following downwardly revised figures in earlier months. The leaders&#39; correlation with GDP growth has been a low 0.9% during the last ten years.
Also to the weak side, the UK leaders fell 0.1% for the third straight month led by lower consumer confidence and new car registrations but share prices rose. The six month growth rate remained negative for the twelfth straight month at -0.2% and its correlation with real GDP growth has been 29% during the last ten years.
The latest OECD Leading Indicator report is available <a href="http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/8/10/35903549.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/OECDMEI/OECDMEI.HTM">OECD</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Composite Leading Index&nbsp;</td>
<td>104.01</td>
<td>103.34</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>102.39</td>
<td>97.87</td>
<td>96.47</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;6 Month Growth Rate</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The 0.6% rise in the November Leading Index of the Major 7 OECD economies was the sixth consecutive monthly increase. The rise lifted the leaders' six month growth rate to 2.7%, the best since July 2004. During the last ten years [...]

OECD Leaders Rose Broadly Amongst Member Countries

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060109a.jpg" width="353">
The 0.6% rise in the November Leading Index of the Major 7 OECD economies was the sixth consecutive monthly increase. The rise lifted the leaders&#39; six month growth rate to 2.7%, the best since July 2004.
During the last ten years there has been a 66% correlation between the change in the leading index and the q/q change in the GDP Volume Index for the Big Seven countries in the OECD.
The leaders in Japan again paced the gains which were broad based amongst countries. A 1.0% November rise was the largest since 2002 and the sixth consecutive monthly increase. The six month growth rate rose to 4.1% and its correlation with real economic growth in Japan has been a meaningful 42% during the last ten years.
The 0.7% rise in the U.S. leaders was the firmest since June and raised six month growth in the leaders to 2.4%, also the best since August of last year. The correlation between the leaders and real GDP growth has been a high 58% during the last ten years.
The Canadian leaders showed improvement. A 0.6% gain followed an upwardly revised 0.3% October increase and pulled six month growth positive for the first time in over a year at 0.9%. The correlation of the leaders&#39; growth with Canadian real GDP has been 49% during the last ten years.
Leaders in the European Union (15 countries) again rose by 0.4%, the sixth consecutive monthly increase and it raised the six month growth rate to 3.2%. During the last ten years there has been a 60% correlation between the change in the leading index and the q/q change in the GDP volume index for the European Union.
German leaders increased 0.8% for the second month. This seventh consecutive rise raised the six month growth rate to 5.8% but the correlation between the leaders and the change in the German GDP volume index has been a low 19% during the last ten years.
The French leaders gained 0.4% and pulled the six month growth rate 2.6%, its best in a year. The correlation between the leaders&#39; growth and France&#39;s GDP volume index has been 43% during the last ten years. The Italian leading index even managed 0.1% up tick but the six month growth remained negative at -0.6% following downwardly revised figures in earlier months. The leaders&#39; correlation with GDP growth has been a low 0.9% during the last ten years.
Also to the weak side, the UK leaders fell 0.1% for the third straight month led by lower consumer confidence and new car registrations but share prices rose. The six month growth rate remained negative for the twelfth straight month at -0.2% and its correlation with real GDP growth has been 29% during the last ten years.
The latest OECD Leading Indicator report is available <a href="http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/8/10/35903549.pdf">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/OECDMEI/OECDMEI.HTM">OECD</a></th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Oct</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Composite Leading Index&nbsp;</td>
<td>104.01</td>
<td>103.34</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>102.39</td>
<td>97.87</td>
<td>96.47</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;6 Month Growth Rate</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
News from Central and Eastern Europe  
by <a href="/comment/Curley.html">Louise Curley</a> January 9, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060109b.jpg" width="353">
Statistics relating to the Czech Republic, Hungary, Latvia and Slovenia were released today. These countries became members of the European Union in May, 2004 and, while it will be some time before they are able and/or willing to join the Euro Zone, it may be interesting to compare the various aspects of their economies with those of the Euro Zone as a whole. The data for these countries are found in the Haver data base, EMERGECW.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060109c.jpg" width="353">
The December CPI and the unemployment rate were released for the Czech Republic. The first two charts compare prices and the unemployment rate in the Czech Republic and in the Euro Zone as a whole. When the harmonized Index of Prices for the Euro Zone, which is published on a 1996=100 basis is put on a 2000=100 basis for comparison with the Czech index, the levels and trends are very similar. The rate of unemployment, however, is higher in the Czech Republic than in the Euro Zone and it was only in mid 2004 that the difference between the two rates began to narrow.
Industrial production in Latvia rose 4.9% in November from October and was almost 6% over November, 2004. As shown in the third chart, the rise in production in Latvia has been much more vigorous than that in the Euro Zone as a whole.
Finally the merchandise trade balance in both Slovenia and Hungary has generally been negative, while that of the Euro Zone has, until recently, been positive. The fourth chart shows the merchandise trade deficit for Hungary and that of the Euro Zone as a whole. <img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060109d.jpg" width="353"><img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060109e.jpg" width="353"> 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"></th>
<th scope="col">Dec 05</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 05 </th>
<th scope="col">Dec 04</th>
<th scope="col">M/M % or Dif&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y % or &nbsp; Dif</th>
<th scope="col">2004&nbsp;&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2003&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2002&nbsp;</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;CZECH REPUBLIC</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; CPI&nbsp; (2000=100)</td>
<td>113.4</td>
<td>113.3</td>
<td>110.</td>
<td>0.09</td>
<td>2.25</td>
<td>109.7</td>
<td>106.7</td>
<td>106.6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
<td>8.75</td>
<td>8.63</td>
<td>9.34</td>
<td>0.12</td>
<td>-0.59</td>
<td>9.77</td>
<td>9.92</td>
<td>9.19</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol"></td>
<td>Nov 05</td>
<td>Oct 05 </td>
<td>Nov 04</td>
<td>M/M % or Dif &nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp; </td>
<td>Y/Y % or Dif</td>
<td>2004&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
<td>2003&nbsp;</td>
<td>2002&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;LATVIA</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Industrial Production&nbsp;</td>
<td>136.2</td>
<td>129.2</td>
<td>128.6</td>
<td>4.93</td>
<td>5.99</td>
<td>127.7</td>
<td>120.5</td>
<td>113.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">HUNGARY</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Trade Balance (Mil US$)</td>
<td>-411.7</td>
<td>-245.4</td>
<td>-378.7</td>
<td>-166.3</td>
<td>-33.0</td>
<td>-4764.8</td>
<td>-4667.3</td>
<td>-3275.1</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">SLOVENIA</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Trade Balance (Mil US$)</td>
<td>-192.7</td>
<td>-156.9</td>
<td>-143.2</td>
<td>-35.8</td>
<td>-49.5</td>
<td>-1456.5</td>
<td>-1120.7</td>
<td>-586.5</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Carol Stone, CBE

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060106c.jpg" width="353">
Canada&#39;s labor market was fairly firm in 2005, despite a modest reversal in employment for December, data for which were published this morning by Statistics Canada. In December, employment fell by 2,100 from November, but both November and October had good gains, so that Q4 as a whole added 97,000 jobs, the best since Q2 2004. Consequently, unemployment in Canada has come down. The 6.4% in November was the lowest since December 1974, with this December&#39;s 6.5% still the lowest since early 1975.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060106d.jpg" width="353">
The age distribution of employment in December suggests that the slight reversal in total employment should have only limited overall economic impact. Jobs still increased in the major livelihood-earning segment, ages 15-64, with the decline more than accounted for among the elderly population. The former mid-range group increased in all but one month of 2005; the gains were not as large as in some months of the prior couple of years, but they were clearly steadier.
For the elderly population, the last four years have seen remarkable job growth accompanying a major increase in labor force participation. We can calculate a participation rate for the population over 65 and find that it has risen from 6% of that population in 2000 and 2001 to 8% in 2005. At the same time, the growth of that population group turned upward from a long, secular decline, bottoming at 1.56% in the year to January 2000 and reaching 2.17% in the year to December 2005. So the population is growing and so are employment opportunities for this age group. This process paused in November and December, but we&#39;d surmise that it will resume soon. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/CANSIM/@C6/@C6.HTM">Canada</a> (SA, Thous or %)</th>
<th scope="col">Dec 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Dec 2004</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Employment, Age 15+</td>
<td>16,296</td>
<td>16,298</td>
<td>16,267</td>
<td>16,063</td>
<td>16,175</td>
<td>15,952</td>
<td>15,664</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>-2</td>
<td>31</td>
<td>69</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Age 15-64</td>
<td>15,988</td>
<td>15,974</td>
<td>15,943</td>
<td>15,763</td>
<td>15,868</td>
<td>15,664</td>
<td>15,393</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>14</td>
<td>31</td>
<td>51</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Age 65+</td>
<td>307</td>
<td>323</td>
<td>324</td>
<td>300</td>
<td>307</td>
<td>287</td>
<td>271</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>-16</td>
<td>-1</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
<td>5.9%</td>
<td>13.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate, Age 15+</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>7.0%</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Age 15-64</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>7.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Canada's labor market was fairly firm in 2005, despite a modest reversal in employment for December, data for which were published this morning by Statistics Canada. In December, employment fell by 2,100 from November, but both [...]

Canada Employment Eases in December, But Only in Elderly Age Group

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060106a.jpg" width="353">
Challenger, Grey &amp; Christmas reported that job cut announcements in December rose for the fourth consecutive month. The 8.6% rise versus November to 107,822 pulled the three month average of job cut announcements up to 96,134 (-8.6% y/y).
For the year, job cut announcement rose 3.1%, the first annual increase since 2001.
An increased level of job cuts in government dominated the December report. Declines in layoff announcements were widespread throughout other industries.
During the last ten years there has been an 84% (inverse) correlation between the three month moving average of announced job cuts and the three month change payroll employment.
Job cut announcements differ from layoffs. Many are achieved through attrition, early retirement or just never occur.
Challenger also reported a sharp m/m drop in announced hiring plans (102.1% y/y).

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S3/@S301/@S301.HTM">Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas</a></th>
<th scope="col">Dec</th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Announced Job Cuts</td>
<td>107,822</td>
<td>99,279</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>1,072,054</td>
<td>1,039,935</td>
<td>1,236,426</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Challenger, Grey & Christmas reported that job cut announcements in December rose for the fourth consecutive month. The 8.6% rise versus November to 107,822 pulled the three month average of job cut announcements up to 96,134 (-8.6% [...]

Challenger Layoffs Up Again in December

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060106b.jpg" width="353">
Non-farm payrolls in December grew just 108,000. Nevertheless, when averaged with a November increase revised up to 305,000 from 215,000 reported initially, the gain was a sharp improvement from the prior two months&#39; average of just 21,000. Consensus expectations had been for a 200,000 increase in December. The average monthly increase in payrolls during 2005 was 179,300 versus 123,000 during 2004.
From the household survey the unemployment rate fell to 4.9%, a bit lower than expected. Employment rose 168,000 (1.9% y/y) after a 14,000 decline in November, revised shallower from the initial report. The labor force fell 30,000 (1.3% y/y).
Factory sector payrolls increased 18,000 (-0.4% y/y). The average gain in factory payrolls during the last three months of 13,000 is the best showing since mid-2004. An improvement in the industry breadth of gain during that period to 54.8% reflected gains in durable manufacturing but not nondurables.
Construction employment fell 9,000 (+3.5% y/y) following an upwardly revised 42,000 increase in November.
Private service producing payrolls rose a modest 82,000 (1.8% y/y) last month though the November increase was revised to 228,000 from 144,000. Retail trade jobs declined for the fourth month in the last five (+0.6% y/y) and job losses were widespread amongst industries. Education &amp; health services jobs increased 25,000 (2.1% y/y) and remained on the earlier pace while professional &amp; business services jobs rose 33,000(2.9% y/y). Jobs in financial services rose 12,000 (2.3% y/y) and leisure &amp; hospitality rose 23,000 (1.9% y/y) and November&#39;s increase was revised up sharply.
Average hourly earnings were a bit stronger than expected, rising 0.3%, but the prior month&#39;s gain was lessened. Factory sector earnings rose just 0.1% (2.3% y/y) following no change in November.
Higher education and economic growth from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago can be found <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/fedletter/cfljanuary2006_222a.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EB/@EB01/@EB01.HTM">Employment</a></th>
<th scope="col">Dec</th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Payroll Employment</td>
<td>108,000</td>
<td>305,000</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Manufacturing</td>
<td>18,000</td>
<td>8,000</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>-4.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Average Weekly Hours</td>
<td>33.7</td>
<td>33.8</td>
<td>33.7 (Dec &#39;04)</td>
<td>33.7</td>
<td>33.7</td>
<td>33.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Average Hourly Earnings</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
<td>5.4% (Dec &#39;04)</td>
<td>5.1%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Non-farm payrolls in December grew just 108,000. Nevertheless, when averaged with a November increase revised up to 305,000 from 215,000 reported initially, the gain was a sharp improvement from the prior two months' average of just [...]

Shortfall in U.S. Payrolls Offset By Upward Revision

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060106b.jpg" width="353">
Non-farm payrolls in December grew just 108,000. Nevertheless, when averaged with a November increase revised up to 305,000 from 215,000 reported initially, the gain was a sharp improvement from the prior two months&#39; average of just 21,000. Consensus expectations had been for a 200,000 increase in December. The average monthly increase in payrolls during 2005 was 179,300 versus 123,000 during 2004.
From the household survey the unemployment rate fell to 4.9%, a bit lower than expected. Employment rose 168,000 (1.9% y/y) after a 14,000 decline in November, revised shallower from the initial report. The labor force fell 30,000 (1.3% y/y).
Factory sector payrolls increased 18,000 (-0.4% y/y). The average gain in factory payrolls during the last three months of 13,000 is the best showing since mid-2004. An improvement in the industry breadth of gain during that period to 54.8% reflected gains in durable manufacturing but not nondurables.
Construction employment fell 9,000 (+3.5% y/y) following an upwardly revised 42,000 increase in November.
Private service producing payrolls rose a modest 82,000 (1.8% y/y) last month though the November increase was revised to 228,000 from 144,000. Retail trade jobs declined for the fourth month in the last five (+0.6% y/y) and job losses were widespread amongst industries. Education &amp; health services jobs increased 25,000 (2.1% y/y) and remained on the earlier pace while professional &amp; business services jobs rose 33,000(2.9% y/y). Jobs in financial services rose 12,000 (2.3% y/y) and leisure &amp; hospitality rose 23,000 (1.9% y/y) and November&#39;s increase was revised up sharply.
Average hourly earnings were a bit stronger than expected, rising 0.3%, but the prior month&#39;s gain was lessened. Factory sector earnings rose just 0.1% (2.3% y/y) following no change in November.
Higher education and economic growth from the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago can be found <a href="http://www.chicagofed.org/publications/fedletter/cfljanuary2006_222a.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EB/@EB01/@EB01.HTM">Employment</a></th>
<th scope="col">Dec</th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Payroll Employment</td>
<td>108,000</td>
<td>305,000</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Manufacturing</td>
<td>18,000</td>
<td>8,000</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>-4.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Average Weekly Hours</td>
<td>33.7</td>
<td>33.8</td>
<td>33.7 (Dec &#39;04)</td>
<td>33.7</td>
<td>33.7</td>
<td>33.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Average Hourly Earnings</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate</td>
<td>4.9%</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
<td>5.4% (Dec &#39;04)</td>
<td>5.1%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>6.0%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Challenger Layoffs Up Again in December 
by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom Moeller</a> January 6, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060106a.jpg" width="353">
Challenger, Grey &amp; Christmas reported that job cut announcements in December rose for the fourth consecutive month. The 8.6% rise versus November to 107,822 pulled the three month average of job cut announcements up to 96,134 (-8.6% y/y).
For the year, job cut announcement rose 3.1%, the first annual increase since 2001.
An increased level of job cuts in government dominated the December report. Declines in layoff announcements were widespread throughout other industries.
During the last ten years there has been an 84% (inverse) correlation between the three month moving average of announced job cuts and the three month change payroll employment.
Job cut announcements differ from layoffs. Many are achieved through attrition, early retirement or just never occur.
Challenger also reported a sharp m/m drop in announced hiring plans (102.1% y/y).

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S3/@S301/@S301.HTM">Challenger, Gray &amp; Christmas</a></th>
<th scope="col">Dec</th>
<th scope="col">Nov</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Announced Job Cuts</td>
<td>107,822</td>
<td>99,279</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>1,072,054</td>
<td>1,039,935</td>
<td>1,236,426</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Canada Employment Eases in December, But Only in Elderly Age Group 
by <a href="/comment/Stone.html">Carol Stone</a> January 6, 2006


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060106c.jpg" width="353">
Canada&#39;s labor market was fairly firm in 2005, despite a modest reversal in employment for December, data for which were published this morning by Statistics Canada. In December, employment fell by 2,100 from November, but both November and October had good gains, so that Q4 as a whole added 97,000 jobs, the best since Q2 2004. Consequently, unemployment in Canada has come down. The 6.4% in November was the lowest since December 1974, with this December&#39;s 6.5% still the lowest since early 1975.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060106d.jpg" width="353">
The age distribution of employment in December suggests that the slight reversal in total employment should have only limited overall economic impact. Jobs still increased in the major livelihood-earning segment, ages 15-64, with the decline more than accounted for among the elderly population. The former mid-range group increased in all but one month of 2005; the gains were not as large as in some months of the prior couple of years, but they were clearly steadier.
For the elderly population, the last four years have seen remarkable job growth accompanying a major increase in labor force participation. We can calculate a participation rate for the population over 65 and find that it has risen from 6% of that population in 2000 and 2001 to 8% in 2005. At the same time, the growth of that population group turned upward from a long, secular decline, bottoming at 1.56% in the year to January 2000 and reaching 2.17% in the year to December 2005. So the population is growing and so are employment opportunities for this age group. This process paused in November and December, but we&#39;d surmise that it will resume soon. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/CANSIM/@C6/@C6.HTM">Canada</a> (SA, Thous or %)</th>
<th scope="col">Dec 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Nov 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Oct 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Dec 2004</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Employment, Age 15+</td>
<td>16,296</td>
<td>16,298</td>
<td>16,267</td>
<td>16,063</td>
<td>16,175</td>
<td>15,952</td>
<td>15,664</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>-2</td>
<td>31</td>
<td>69</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Age 15-64</td>
<td>15,988</td>
<td>15,974</td>
<td>15,943</td>
<td>15,763</td>
<td>15,868</td>
<td>15,664</td>
<td>15,393</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>14</td>
<td>31</td>
<td>51</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Age 65+</td>
<td>307</td>
<td>323</td>
<td>324</td>
<td>300</td>
<td>307</td>
<td>287</td>
<td>271</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>-16</td>
<td>-1</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
<td>5.9%</td>
<td>13.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate, Age 15+</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>7.0%</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>7.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Age 15-64</td>
<td>6.6%</td>
<td>6.4%</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
<td>7.2%</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>7.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060105e.jpg" width="353">
Today, January 5, a wide variety of data was reported by national statistical agencies and private sources all over the world. Some of these reports glean considerable press coverage, particularly if the results are a surprise, such as with German manufacturing orders: these orders grew again in November, when market forecasters had expected them to decline.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060105f.jpg" width="353">
But Haver&#39;s databases, of course, carry far more background material on the economies of myriad countries. For instance, yesterday in this space, we highlighted the CPI of Thailand, a major release in a small country. Today we take the opposite approach, describing a secondary release in a major country, to wit, corporate profitability in the UK. The ONS publishes quarterly rates of return for total private non-financial corporations and some subsets of companies. Most prominently, oil companies are highlighted, referred to as &quot;UK continental shelf companies&quot;. Separately, manufacturing and service sector groups are shown. A few other miscellaneous sectors, such as construction, are not shown individually.
In Q3 2005, all private nonfinancial companies earned a 13.4% net return on their capital. This is down from 13.8% in Q2, but that was a 6-1/2 year high. The average for the last five years is 12.9%. Manufacturing companies earned just 6.2% on assets in Q3, following a somewhat higher 7.9% in Q2. This group has experienced basically flat returns in recent years, averaging about 7% since 2002. Services industries have higher rates of return, averaging 16.3% over the last four years, but these too are trendless, moving back and forth in a saw-tooth pattern.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/060105g.jpg" width="353">
The breakout of the petroleum industry is informative. It shows that back in the early 1990s this sector had about the same magnitude return as the rest of UK industry. However, this relationship has changed markedly, with the &quot;Continental Shelf companies&quot; seeing far higher returns now, 36.3% in Q3. Annual data from ONS give some detail on the operating surpluses and capital that generate the return ratio. They indicate that the recent high rates of return are not, as one might think, due totally to higher oil prices. Specifically, since 2000, the UK oil industry has stopped expanding, as capital employed, shown in the third graph, has flattened. At the same time, sharply higher oil prices are surely responsible for 2005&#39;s further escalation of returns into the mid-30% range.
Normally, higher returns might be expected to prompt the renewed expansion of an industry. There are mixed signals about these prospects. Haver&#39;s OGJ database and OGJANN from the &quot;Oil and Gas Journal&quot; contain other broad data on the UK petroleum industry. Petroleum reserves in the UK are decreasing, and daily production of crude oil has fallen even into Q3. However, the so-called &quot;rig count&quot; of operating oil rigs shows a sustained upturn over the last six months. With this mixed picture about specific UK potential, perhaps what the high returns mean is more general, and perhaps they will be used for new kinds of energy development, not just the expansion of local output. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/UK/@U2/@U224/@U224.HTM">United Kingdom: Private Nonfin Corps: Net Rates of Return (%)</a></th>
<th scope="col">Q3 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Q2 2005</th>
<th scope="col">Q1 2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
<th scope="col">2003</th>
<th scope="col">2002</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">All PNFCs</td>
<td>13.4</td>
<td>13.8</td>
<td>13.3</td>
<td>13.3</td>
<td>12.9</td>
<td>12.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">UK Continental Shelf</td>
<td>36.3</td>
<td>34.4</td>
<td>30.6</td>
<td>29.3</td>
<td>29.2</td>
<td>30.4</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Non-Continental Shelf</td>
<td>12.6</td>
<td>13.0</td>
<td>12.7</td>
<td>12.7</td>
<td>12.2</td>
<td>11.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Manufacturing</td>
<td>6.2</td>
<td>7.9</td>
<td>5.8</td>
<td>7.1</td>
<td>6.9</td>
<td>7.2</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Services</td>
<td>16.6</td>
<td>16.5</td>
<td>17.3</td>
<td>16.3</td>
<td>16.5</td>
<td>16.1</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Today, January 5, a wide variety of data was reported by national statistical agencies and private sources all over the world. Some of these reports glean considerable press coverage, particularly if the results are a surprise, such [...]

UK Corporations' Profitability Still Firm, Led by High Oil Company Returns

US is big leader in global surge in private AI investment

Larger-than-usual income tax refunds this year are supporting consumer spending

Sharply rising share of AI-related jobs

Inflationary impact of surge in oil prices larger in Europe than in the US

Futures market thinks the price of oil will recede significantly over the next six months

Recent pickup in US defense orders could help support overall growth ahead

Cost of transporting crude oil has soared to series high

Market-based inflation expectations have not yet reflected recent surge in oil prices

Global equity markets are fearing a major economic disruption from soaring oil prices

Is recent drop in sentiment signaling softer growth ahead?

With the Iran conflict, geopolitical risk has soared to alarming levels

Soaring AI-related investment in US underpinning strong contribution of business spending to overall growth

AI-related outperformance of IP in Advanced Asia ex Japan

Resilient US economy pushing up Blue Chip 2026 outlook

US and China big leaders in adoption of AI models

Robust US demand for advanced technology products

China's export growth rotating away from the US

More pronounced upward revisions in countries more exposed to AI investment

Stable job openings and hiring rates point to cautious hiring

Global freight costs are on the rise while supply chain pressures are contained

Accelerating positive economic surprises in the G10 are boosting the global economy

Considerably more monetary ease expected from US and UK as Japan tightens

Tighter US immigration enforcement adversely impacting labor force

Economic policy uncertainty, while still elevated, is declining

Gradual disinflation and easier monetary policies across advanced economies

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Sandy Batten

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Industrial production (IP) rose a much larger-than-expected 0.7% m/m in April, rebounding from an upwardly revised 0.3% m/m decline in March (previously -0.5% m/m), according to data released by the Federal Reserve Board. The Action Economics Survey looked for a 0.2% monthly gain. The y/y rate also rebounded in April, rising to 1.4% y/y after having fallen to 0.7% in March. IP has clearly trended up since late last year. Since November 2025, it has grown at a 3.6% annual rate. The current level of output is the highest since August 2019 but is still 1.5% below the November 2018 series peak.

Manufacturing output led the April rebound, rising 0.6% m/m (1.3% y/y) following an upwardly revised 0.1% monthly increase in March (previously -0.1% m/m). Mining output fell in April for the second consecutive month, edging down 0.1% m/m (+0.2% y/y) after a 1.6% monthly drop in March (revised down from -1.2% m/m). Utilities production rebounded in April, jumping 1.6% m/m (2.7% y/y) and more than offsetting a 1.4% monthly decline in March (revised up from -2.3% previously). The rebound in utilities output reflected a 1.1% rise in electricity production and a 7.3% monthly jump in natural gas distribution, the first monthly gain in four months.

Within manufacturing, durable goods production jumped 1.2% m/m (3.2% y/y) in April after having been unchanged in March. A 3.7% m/m rebound in motor vehicles and parts production, the largest monthly gain since May 2025, led the April increase. Motor vehicles and parts production had fallen 2.4% m/m in March. Production of computers and electronic products increased 1.5% m/m, the fourth consecutive monthly rise. Aerospace output rose 1.6% m/m in April, the third consecutive monthly gain and the largest since July 2025. By contrast, furniture production fell 1.8% m/m, the third consecutive monthly decline. 

Output of nondurable manufactured goods edged down 0.1% m/m (-0.6% y/y) in April, the first monthly decline in four months. Production of apparel and leather goods slumped 2.2% m/m on top of a 2.0% monthly fall in March. Chemical output fell 0.9% m/m in April, its first monthly decline in four months. Output of plastics and rubber products fell 0.9% m/m, the first monthly fall in four months. By contrast, production of petroleum and coal products rose 1.0% m/m in April, the same monthly increase as in March.

By market group, output of consumer goods rebounded in April, increasing 0.9% m/m (-0.2% y/y) following a 0.8% m/m decline in March. Production of business equipment surged 1.5% m/m (+6.0% y/y) in April, the largest monthly gain since March 2025. Output of construction supplies was unchanged in April from March (+1.2% y/y) following a 0.9% m/m gain in March. Materials production rebounded in April, rising 0.5% m/m (1.2% y/y) after a 0.4% m/m decline in March.

In special classifications, output of selected high-tech industries increased 1.0% m/m (+9.2% y/y) in April following a 0.5% monthly gain in March. The rebound in motor vehicles and parts production reflected a 5.3% monthly surge in vehicle output, the largest monthly gain since May 2025. Manufacturing output excluding selected high-tech industries rose 0.6% m/m in April, the largest increase since February 2025, following a 0.1% m/m increase in March. Manufacturing output excluding both selected high-tech industries and motor vehicles and parts advanced 0.3% m/m in April, the same monthly gain as in March.

Capacity utilization rose to 76.1% in April from 75.7% in March. The April reading was the highest since last August but was still 3.3%-points below its long-term (1972-2025) average. Manufacturing capacity utilization increased to 75.8% in April from 75.4% in March, 2.4%-points below its long-term average.

Industrial production and capacity data are in Haver’s **USECON** database. Additional detail on production and capacity utilization can be found in the **IP** database. The expectations figures come from the **AS1REPNA** database.



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- Total industrial output increased a much larger-than-expected 0.7% m/m in April with a small upward revision to March.
- Manufacturing output increased 0.6% m/m, led by a 5.3% m/m rebound in vehicle production.
- Mining output edged down 0.1% m/m, while utilities production rose 1.9% m/m.
- The headline rate of capacity utilization rose to 76.1% in April, its highest reading since last August but still well below its long-term average.


U.S. Industrial Production Jumped in April

Robert Brusca

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Industrial orders in Canada are back on an expansion path with orders growing 4.7% in March on top of a 6.9% gain in February. These statistics chronicle Canadian orders digging out from a hole they fell into early in 2026. Now the data show emerging sequential growth in Canadian orders, which are advancing 3.6% over 12 months at a 14.9% annual rate over six-months, and a 26.7% annual rate over three-months. Still, on the chart that plots the year-over-year growth rates these recent accelerated rates of growth appear as mere recoveries from what had been earlier weakness. It remains to be seen how much acceleration the Canadian economy will actually undergo.

Unfilled orders expanded in March for the second month in a row, growing 2.4% after growing 1.4% in February once again following the recovery theme.

Manufacturing shipments grew by 3% in March after growing 3.4% in February and after dropping sharply in January - again echoing the recovery theme. Durable goods show two months of increases with the March increase weak after a very strong rise in February. Motor vehicle output recovered very strongly in February, after falling at a 37.1% annual rate in January; motor vehicle output is up by 15% in March, a hefty growth rate but short of what was posted in February. Once again, we see an echo of the theme of recovery. However, shipments of durable goods excluding motor vehicles are less robust, after dropping 1.8% in January output rose by 3.8% in February and has fallen back, dropping by 1.1% in March, a small fly in the ointment of this recovery theme for Canada. And nondurable goods shipments saw a small increase in January of 0.2%, a flat February, and now an extremely strong, 5.6% month-to-month gain in March.

Canada's sequential growth rates are on the verge of showing broad acceleration. Orders clearly do accelerate from 12-months to six-months to three-months. Unfilled orders, however, accelerate over six-months compared to 12-months and then take a small step back over three-months to an annualized growth rate of 13.4% - a very small step back that is still far above the 12-month growth pace. Manufacturing shipments, too, show a small flaw in acceleration as the 6-month pace dips ever so slightly before logging a very strong 3-month pace. Durable goods then are an exception to the acceleration theme; however, nondurable goods get back on board with the strong acceleration move.

**Rankings**
The rank standings for these categories are based on annual growth rates and comparison with data extend back approximately 25 years. Orders have a 58-percentile standing, unfilled orders have a 57-percentile standing, while manufacturing shipments have a 62-percentile standing. Shipments for durable goods durables excluding motor vehicles and from motor vehicles as a stand-alone have rankings in their 30th- to 40th-percentiles, below their historic medians. (medians occur at a ranking of 50). However, nondurables have an extremely strong 80.5 percentile standing. The data are consistent, the recovery and progress with the exception that durable goods shipments that are not fully on board and languish below their historic median results. Ranking the data over six-month growth rates improves the results somewhat and brings motor vehicles on board for a growth rate that is above its historic median.

**Signs of improvement**
Goods-based industry shows signs of picking up even in March as oil prices were rising and industry was facing greater challenges. The US industrial production report for April, similarly, shows acceleration across the board, even as the economy continued to deal with the difficulties of rising oil prices. Of course, the Canadian US economies are closely linked; we would expect the manufacturing sectors to be performing with some degree of synchronization. However, there's no reason to be complacent about the outlook. Oil prices have continued to rise, the challenge to consumers is strong and across all countries. In the US special tax cuts enacted last year, which went into effect earlier this year, have helped to deliver extra money to consumers that have helped them deal with the oil price shock. But these were funds that were supposed to help stimulate the economy to higher growth and were planned by the President to help him with midterm elections coming later in the year. The US economy still has to deal with those realities with sharply divided political reality as well.

**Outlook**
The US acrimony with Canada has taken a back burner for a while. And as that has happened the Canadian economy has come back to life. However, Canada still has some problems with inflation although it also has a broader inflation target to accommodate some flexibility. And the prospect for more inflation because of global oil prices continues to hang in the balance. The results for March are encouraging but certainly not definitive. Canada has mounted a nice recovery after a period of difficulty earlier in the year but it's still hard to say what comes next.



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Canada

Canadian Industry Perks Up

Andrew Cates

**A Tug of War Between AI Hope and Geopolitical Shock**
The latest Blue Chip Economic Indicators survey highlights a growing divergence between economies benefiting from AI-driven optimism and those more exposed to the inflationary consequences of renewed geopolitical instability. Taiwan stands out as the clearest AI beneficiary, with growth forecasts revised sharply higher while inflation expectations have risen only modestly, reflecting surging semiconductor demand and continued investment in global technology supply chains. China also remains relatively resilient, supported by ongoing AI-related capital spending and stronger technology sectors. By contrast, the euro area and UK have seen much larger upward revisions to inflation forecasts alongside weaker or declining growth expectations, underscoring their greater vulnerability to the recent Middle East shock and higher energy costs. Korea sits somewhere in between: benefiting from the AI hardware cycle but still exposed to trade and energy headwinds. Overall, the chart illustrates the increasingly important push-and-pull shaping the global outlook: AI optimism and productivity hopes on one side, and geopolitical fragmentation, energy insecurity and supply-side inflation pressures on the other.

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**Forecasters See Contained Pass-Through**
Against this backdrop, our latest Blue Chip special question sought to gauge whether economists believe the recent rise in energy prices will remain largely contained — or whether it risks spilling more meaningfully into underlying global inflation dynamics. The results suggest forecasters have become somewhat less concerned about a broad and persistent inflationary impulse since April. A larger share of respondents in the May survey now expect only a “limited and temporary” pass-through into core inflation, while the proportion anticipating “moderate and persistent” effects has declined noticeably. Very few panelists expect significant second-round effects, implying that most still believe inflation expectations and wage-setting behaviour remain relatively well anchored. In part, this reflects confidence in central bank credibility and the view that softer global demand conditions will constrain firms’ pricing power. Yet the persistence of a sizeable minority still expecting moderate pass-through underscores the uncomfortable tension facing policymakers. 

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**Energy Reawakens as a US Inflation Driver**
While survey respondents generally expect only limited pass-through from higher energy prices into broader inflation, the latest US CPI data provide a reminder that the process may already be underway at the margin. April’s CPI report showed core inflation coming in slightly firmer than expected, suggesting underlying price pressures remain more persistent than many policymakers had hoped. The decomposition of CPI inflation highlights that services continue to dominate overall inflation dynamics, reflecting still-elevated wage and labour-intensive price pressures across the economy. However, the more notable recent development has been the renewed contribution from energy prices, which had previously acted as a disinflationary force through much of 2025. Food inflation has also remained comparatively steady, while non-energy goods prices continue to exert only modest upward pressure despite ongoing tariff and supply-chain concerns. Taken together, the data reinforce the idea that the US economy is not facing a classic demand collapse, but rather a more uncomfortable supply-side environment in which geopolitical energy shocks risk colliding with still-resilient domestic demand, AI-related investment spending and sticky service-sector inflation.

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**AI: The Powerful Counterweight to Geopolitical Headwinds**
If rising energy prices and geopolitical instability represent one major force shaping the current macroeconomic outlook, the extraordinary surge in AI-related investment represents the other. The latest data from Our World in Data show global private investment in AI accelerating sharply again in 2025, reaching close to $300 billion — more than double the level seen just two years earlier. The United States continues to dominate the global AI landscape, accounting for the overwhelming majority of private investment spending, while China and Europe remain considerably smaller contributors despite continued growth. The scale and speed of the 2025 increase is particularly striking given the broader backdrop of elevated policy uncertainty, trade fragmentation and concerns about slowing global productivity growth. In effect, the global economy is now being pulled in two competing directions: on one side, geopolitical tensions, supply-chain fragilities and more recent energy shocks are weighing on confidence and raising supply-side costs; on the other, AI enthusiasm is driving an enormous wave of capital expenditure, infrastructure build-out and technology-related demand. This helps explain why growth expectations — particularly in the US and parts of Asia — have remained comparatively resilient despite an increasingly uncertain global environment.

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**Industrial Winners and Losers in a Fragmenting Global Economy**
The divergence in industrial performance across advanced economies has become increasingly striking. Taiwan has emerged as one of the clearest beneficiaries of the global AI boom, with industrial production surging as semiconductor demand, data-centre investment and advanced electronics exports continue to accelerate. Denmark has also significantly outperformed, though for very different reasons, with the extraordinary global success of its pharmaceutical sector — particularly weight-loss and diabetes drugs — driving a powerful expansion in manufacturing output. By contrast, the UK and Germany have experienced a far weaker industrial recovery. In both cases, elevated energy costs and greater dependence on imported energy have weighed heavily on industrial competitiveness since the post-pandemic energy shock. Germany’s large manufacturing sector has been particularly exposed to higher natural gas prices and weaker external demand, while the UK has continued to struggle with a combination of high energy costs, weak productivity growth and subdued business investment. The chart highlights an increasingly important feature of the global economy: countries exposed to powerful structural growth themes such as AI or pharmaceuticals are pulling away from those still burdened by energy dependence and deteriorating industrial competitiveness.

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**China’s Pulse Is Picking Up Again**
China’s economic backdrop has shown clearer signs of improvement in recent months, with both the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index and the Yicai High Frequency Economic Activity Index moving higher. The rebound suggests that incoming data have begun consistently outperforming expectations after a prolonged period of disappointment. Part of the recent improvement likely reflects the cumulative effects of policy easing, including targeted fiscal support, infrastructure spending and further efforts to stabilise the property sector. Export demand has also remained more resilient than many expected, helped in part by the continued strength of global technology and AI-related supply chains. At the same time, improving domestic mobility and energy usage indicators point to firmer underlying activity momentum. The Yicai index itself is designed to provide a near real-time pulse of the Chinese economy using a basket of high-frequency indicators including subway usage, air pollution, coal consumption, freight activity, unemployment and bankruptcy trends. While China still faces significant structural headwinds — including weak household confidence, property-sector fragilities and deflationary pressures — the recent pickup suggests that growth momentum may be stabilising at a time when several other major economies are becoming more vulnerable to geopolitical and energy-related shocks.

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The global economy is still caught between two powerful and competing forces. On one side, the AI investment boom continues to support growth, industrial activity and equity markets, particularly in the US and parts of Asia. On the other, renewed Middle East tensions and higher energy prices are adding to inflation risks and broader policy uncertainty. The latest Blue Chip survey reflects this divide clearly: growth expectations have generally held up best in economies tied to AI-related investment and technology supply chains, while inflation forecasts have risen more sharply in more energy-exposed economies such as the UK and euro area (chart 1). Forecasters still largely expect only limited pass-through from higher energy prices into core inflation, although recent US CPI data suggest underlying price pressures remain somewhat sticky (charts 2 and 3). At the same time, the extraordinary continued surge in global AI investment — now approaching $300 billion annually — highlights the sheer scale of capital being deployed into semiconductors, data centres and digital infrastructure, particularly in the United States (chart 4). The divergence in industrial production trends also reinforces the growing gap between economies benefiting from structural growth drivers — such as Taiwan’s semiconductor sector and Denmark’s pharmaceutical industry — and those struggling with higher energy costs and weaker competitiveness, notably Germany and the UK (chart 5). Meanwhile, improving Chinese activity indicators suggest policy support and stronger technology demand may finally be helping to stabilise growth (chart 6). Overall, the world economy remains resilient, but increasingly uneven, with AI-related investment continuing to offset — though not eliminate — the drag from geopolitical fragmentation and rising energy insecurity.

Charts of the Week: The Tug of War

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Total retail sales rose a solid 0.5% m/m (4.9% y/y) in April on top of a slightly downwardly revised 1.6% monthly jump in March (previously 1.7%), according to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a 05% m/m gain. Excluding autos, other sales increased 0.7% m/m (6.3% y/y) in April following an unrevised 1.9% monthly jump in March. Expectations were for a 0.6% monthly increase. The strong performance in March and the additional solid gain in April put the April level up 7.8% at an annual rate from the Q1 average, providing a very solid start for Q2.

As expected, the continued rise in retail gasoline prices boosted gasoline sales further in April. Gasoline sales increased 2.8% m/m in April following a 13.7% m/m surge in March and accounted for more than 40% of the April increase in total sales. However, sales were solid even without gasoline sales. Total sales excluding gasoline rose 0.3% m/m in April versus a 0.7% monthly gain in March. Sales excluding both autos and gasoline increased 0.5% m/m in April following a 0.7% m/m rise in March.

The control group of sales (total sales excluding food services, autos, gasoline and building materials that the BEA uses to construct PCE in the national accounts) posted another solid increase in March, rising 0.5% m/m in April following an upwardly revised 0.8% m/m increase in March (previously (0.7% m/m). The solid performances of the control group sales in March and April provide a strong start to Q2. April control-group sales are 5.4% at an annual rate above the Q1 average, in line with the 5.7% annualized increase in Q1. Consumer spending remains surprisingly resilient notwithstanding the recent hit to disposable income from the marked increase in energy prices.

Sales across major sectors were varied in April. Consumers clearly spent more on necessities, owing largely to higher prices. Food sales increased 0.8% m/m in April on top of a 1.0% m/m rise in March. And as already noted, gasoline sales posted another outsized monthly increase. By contrast, department store sales slumped 3.2% m/m, clothing sales fell 1.5% m/m, auto sales declined 0.4% m/m and furniture sales fell 2.0% m/m. More encouragingly, sales of nonstore retailers rose 1.1% m/m, their fourth consecutive solid monthly gain. And sales at restaurants increased 0.6% m/m in April, their third consecutive monthly rise. Analysts frequently use restaurant sales as a barometer of consumer attitudes, believing that consumers would not eat out regularly if they were under serious financial stress.

Retail sales data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in **AS1REPNA**.


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- Total sales increase 0.5% m/m in April after a 1.6% monthly jump in March.
- Gasoline sales rose 2.8% m/m in April on top of a 13.7% surge in March.
- Auto sales fell 0.4% m/m after a 0.6% m/m rise in March.
- Excluding auto and gasoline sales, remaining sales increased by a solid 0.5% m/m in April versus a 0.7% m/m rise in March.
- Sales of the retail control group that is used to construct PCE rose 0.5% m/m in April and are 5.4% annualized above the Q1 average, providing a good start to Q2.


U.S. Retail Sales Slowed in April But Remained Solid

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

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Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose by 12,000 to 211,000 in the week ending May 9, from 199,000 in the week ending May 2, revised from 200,000. The four-week average rose 750 to 203,750 in the week ending May 9, from 203,000 the May 2 week, revised from 203,250. The Action Economics/Haver Analytics Survey looked for 205,000 claims to have been filed. 

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries—also known as “continuing claims”—rose by 24,000 to 1.782 million in the week ending May 2, from 1.758 million in the week ending April 25, revised from 1.766 million. The four-week moving average declined to 1.781 million in the latest week from 1.788 million in the April 25 week. The four-week moving average reached the lowest level since May 2024. The insured unemployment rate rose back to 1.2% in the week of May 2 from the one-week dip to 1.1% in the April 25 week. It had been at 1.2% since the week of November 29, 2025.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending April 25, the highest unemployment rates were in Rhode Island (2.29%), New Jersey and Massachusetts (both 2.20%), and Washington (2.15%). The lowest rates were in Florida and Louisiana (both 0.31%), South Dakota (0.32%), Alabama and Arkansas (both 0.36%), North Carolina (0.38%), Tennessee (0.47%) and Iowa, Kansas and Virginia (all 0.48%). Rates in other notable states include California (1.99%), New York (1.66%), Illinois (1.56%), Pennsylvania (1.28%), and Texas (1.03%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.


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- New claims rose by 12,000 to 211,000.
- Continuing claims rose by 24,000 to 1.782 million.
- The insured unemployment rate was back up to 1.2% in the week of May 2, from the one-week dip to 1.1% the prior week.

Economy in Brief: 2006

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