Global| Jan 06 2006Canada Employment Eases in December, But Only in Elderly Age Group
Summary
Canada's labor market was fairly firm in 2005, despite a modest reversal in employment for December, data for which were published this morning by Statistics Canada. In December, employment fell by 2,100 from November, but both [...]
Canada's labor market was fairly firm in 2005, despite a modest reversal in employment for December, data for which were published this morning by Statistics Canada. In December, employment fell by 2,100 from November, but both November and October had good gains, so that Q4 as a whole added 97,000 jobs, the best since Q2 2004. Consequently, unemployment in Canada has come down. The 6.4% in November was the lowest since December 1974, with this December's 6.5% still the lowest since early 1975.
The age distribution of employment in December suggests that the slight reversal in total employment should have only limited overall economic impact. Jobs still increased in the major livelihood-earning segment, ages 15-64, with the decline more than accounted for among the elderly population. The former mid-range group increased in all but one month of 2005; the gains were not as large as in some months of the prior couple of years, but they were clearly steadier.
For the elderly population, the last four years have seen remarkable job growth accompanying a major increase in labor force participation. We can calculate a participation rate for the population over 65 and find that it has risen from 6% of that population in 2000 and 2001 to 8% in 2005. At the same time, the growth of that population group turned upward from a long, secular decline, bottoming at 1.56% in the year to January 2000 and reaching 2.17% in the year to December 2005. So the population is growing and so are employment opportunities for this age group. This process paused in November and December, but we'd surmise that it will resume soon.
| Canada (SA, Thous or %) |
Dec 2005 | Nov 2005 | Oct 2005 | Dec 2004 | 2005 | 2004 | 2003 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Employment, Age 15+ | 16,296 | 16,298 | 16,267 | 16,063 | 16,175 | 15,952 | 15,664 |
| -2 | 31 | 69 | 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.8% | 2.3% | |
| Age 15-64 | 15,988 | 15,974 | 15,943 | 15,763 | 15,868 | 15,664 | 15,393 |
| 14 | 31 | 51 | 1.4% | 1.3% | 1.8% | 2.1% | |
| Age 65+ | 307 | 323 | 324 | 300 | 307 | 287 | 271 |
| -16 | -1 | 18 | 2.4% | 6.8% | 5.9% | 13.8% | |
| Unemployment Rate, Age 15+ | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 7.6% |
| Age 15-64 | 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.8% | 7.2% | 6.8% | 7.3% | 7.7% |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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