Economy in Brief: January 2020

Reports for the New Year continue to come in emitting erratic signals. Global PMI data from Markit remain weak with poor momentum but also throw out some hints of stabilizing. In the U.S., the ISM is delivering a split decision but [...]

The ADP National Employment Report indicated that private nonfarm payrolls increased 202,000 (1.5% y/y) during December following a 124,000 November rise, revised from 67,000. It was the largest increase since April and exceeded [...]

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its Mortgage Loan Index jumped 13.5% (29.9% y/y) in the week ending January 3 after falling 13.2% in the previous week. Applications to refinance a loan surged by one quarter (73.5% y/y) [...]

• Consumer credit jumped $22.1 billion in December. • Credit growth for 2019 was fairly steady at 4.7% versus 4.8% in 2018. Consumer credit outstanding increased $22.1 billion (4.7% year-on-year) to $4.197 trillion in December, [...]

etail gasoline prices inched up to $2.58 per gallon (15.2% y/y) last week from $2.57 per gallon in the previous week. Last week's price roughly equaled last year's average. Typically, gasoline prices weaken this time of year and Haver [...]

Unlike the Federal Reserve and most central banks, the European Central Bank operates with a single policy directive. That directive is to keep inflation just under 2%. The Fed has a 2% inflation target but also the mandate to achieve [...]

The Composite Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Activity from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) increased to 55.0 during December from 53.9 in November. It was the highest level since August but remained below the high of 60.8 [...]

Factory orders decreased 0.7% m/m (-1.5% y/y) in November following a slightly downwardly revised 0.2% m/m increase in October (initially reported as +0.3% m/m). This was the third monthly decline in the past four months. The November [...]