U.S. Energy Product Prices Edge Higher

Retail gasoline prices inched up to $2.58 per gallon (15.2% y/y) last week from $2.57 per gallon in the previous week. Last week's price roughly equaled last year's average. Typically, gasoline prices weaken this time of year and Haver Analytics adjusts prices for seasonal variation. The seasonally adjusted gasoline price rose one cent to $2.76 per gallon, the highest price since mid-May.

In the week ended January 3, the West Texas Intermediate crude oil price rose to $61.76 per barrel (32.2% y/y) from $61.28 per barrel in the previous week. This is the highest price since mid-May. Yesterday, the price was $63.27. Brent crude oil prices eased to an average of $66.68 per barrel (+20.6% y/y) from $67.38 in the previous week. They rose yesterday to $68.87.

The weekly average price of natural gas rose to $2.07/mmbtu (-29.1% y/y) in the week ended January 3 after falling to an average of $2.03/mmbtu in the previous week. Prices improved yesterday to $2.10.

In the four-weeks ending December 27, gasoline demand increased 0.8% y/y but total petroleum product demand declined 2.7% y/y. Gasoline inventories gained 1.0% y/y and inventories of all petroleum products increased 0.6% y/y. Crude oil input to refineries fell 3.6% y/y in the last four weeks.

These data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy. The price data can be found in Haver's WEEKLY and DAILY databases. Greater detail on prices, as well as the demand, production and inventory data, along with regional breakdowns, are in OILWKLY.

Weekly Energy Prices	01/06/20	12/30/19	12/23/19	Y/Y %	2019	2018	2017
Retail Gasoline ($ per Gallon Regular, Monday Price, End of Period)	2.58	2.57	2.53	15.2	2.57	2.27	2.47
Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl, Previous Week's Average)	61.76	61.28	60.73	32.2	56.91	64.95	50.87
Natural Gas ($/mmbtu, LA, Previous Week's Average)	2.07	2.03	2.28	-29.1	2.57	3.18	2.99

 

U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows To Three-Year Low
by Tom Moeller  January 7, 2020

The U.S. trade deficit in goods and services declined to $43.09 billion during November from $46.90 in October, revised from $47.20 billion. It was the smallest deficit since October 2016. A $43.9 billion deficit had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Exports improved 0.7% (0.3% y/y) after a 0.1% dip while imports weakened 1.0% (-3.8% y/y) following two months of even sharper decline.

The trade deficit in goods fell to $63.00 billion in November after a sharp reduction in October's deficit to $66.70 billion. It also was the smallest deficit since October 2016.

Imports of goods declined 1.4% (-5.7% y/y) as nonpetroleum imports fell 1.2% (-4.8% y/y). Capital goods imports declined 2.0% (-3.7% y/y) and nonauto consumer goods were off 1.9% (-4.5% y/y). Industrial materials imports fell 1.5% (-12.1% y/y) and imports of foods, feeds & beverages weakened 1.3% (+0.1% y/y). Countering these declines was a 3.7% rise (-5.9% y/y) in automobile & parts imports. Petroleum imports declined 3.2% (-15.3% y/y) as the price of crude oil per barrel eased to $51.92 (-9.8% y/y).

Exports of goods rose 0.8% (-1.4% y/y), led by a 3.3% increase (8.8% y/y) in automobile & parts exports. Nonauto consumer goods exports increased 2.9% but were unchanged y/y. Foods, feeds and beverages exports rose 1.8% (6.4% y/y) while capital goods exports strengthened 1.4% (-5.8% y/y). Showing weakness last month, exports of industrial supplies & materials eased 0.4% (-2.1% y/y).

The surplus on trade in services was steady at $20.8 billion, but remained below the March 2018 peak of $22.8 billion. The value of services exports gained 0.5% (3.8% y/y). Tourism exports rose 0.3% (0.2% y/y). Charges for intellectual property exports improved 0.4% (3.4% y/y). Imports of services grew 0.8% (4.7% y/y). Tourism imports improved 1.2% (3.4% y/y) and intellectual property imports rose 0.5% (2.5% y/y).

The trade deficit with China narrowed to $25.6 billion (SA) billion in November from $36.2 billion twelve months earlier. Exports to China rose 18.8% (19.9% y/y). Imports fell 2.2% (-21.6% y/y). The trade deficit with the European Union lessened to $13.5 billion (SA), the least in nine months. Exports fell 1.6% (+3.8% y/y) while imports declined 3.1% (+0.6% y/y). The trade deficit with Japan increased to $5.7 billion (SA). Exports fell 9.2% (-13.9% y/y) while imports rose 6.4% (-7.8% y/y).

The international trade data, including relevant data on oil prices, can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures on international trade are available in the USINT database. The expectations figures are from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which is carried in AS1REPNA.

Foreign Trade in Goods & Services (Current $)	Nov	Oct	Sep	Nov Y/Y	2018	2017	2016
U.S. Trade Deficit ($ bil.)	43.09	46.90	51.10	53.65 (11/18)	627.68	550.12	502.98
Exports of Goods & Services (% Chg)	0.7	-0.1	-0.9	0.3	6.3	6.2	-2.2
Imports of Goods & Services (% Chg)	-1.0	-1.7	-1.6	-3.8	7.8	6.8	-1.7
Petroleum (% Chg)	-3.2	-0.0	-4.6	-15.3	20.8	27.2	-19.4
Nonpetroleum Goods (% Chg)	-1.2	-2.4	-1.9	-4.8	7.5	5.5	-1.3

 

U.S. ISM Nonmanufacturing Index Weakens
by Tom Moeller  January 7, 2010

The Composite Index of Nonmanufacturing Sector Activity from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) declined to 53.9 during November from 54.7 in October. The figure compared to the high of 60.8 in September 2018. A reading of 54.5 had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Readings above 50 indicate a rise in activity.

Haver constructs a Composite Index using this nonmanufacturing reading and the manufacturing series released Monday. The figure fell to 53.2 from 54.0 in October. During the last 15 years, there has been a 70% correlation between this index and the q/q change in real GDP.

The decline in the nonmanufacturing index reflected a lower Business Activity measure. It fell to 51.6 from 57.0 and was the lowest reading since July 2009. The Supplier Delivery measure also fell to 51.5 from 52.5. This reading was down sharply from last year, indicating faster delivery speeds.

Working higher was the New Orders measure to 57.1, though it remained below earlier highs. Hiring activity also improved as the Employment index rose to 55.5 from 53.7. It was the highest level since July.

The Prices index rose to 58.5 from 56.6. It has been moving sideways since the end of last year. Eighteen percent of respondents reported paying higher prices while six percent paid less.

The ISM figures are available in Haver's USECON database, with additional detail in the SURVEYS database. The expectations figure from Action Economics is in the AS1REPNA database.

ISM Nonmanufacturing Survey (SA)	Dec	Nov	Oct	Dec'18	2019	2018	2017
Composite Diffusion Index		53.9	54.7	60.4		58.9	57.0
Business Activity		51.6	57.0	64.3		61.5	60.2
New Orders		57.1	55.6	62.7		61.3	59.3
Employment		55.5	53.7	58.0		56.9	55.1
Supplier Deliveries (NSA)		51.5	52.5	56.5		55.8	53.2
Prices Index		58.5	56.6	64.3		62.1	57.6
ISM Manufacturing + Nonmanufacturing Composite (SA)		53.2	54.0	60.2		58.9	57.0