Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/090310k.jpg" width="353">
The latest survey of hiring intentions by 31,800 employers, performed by Manpower Inc., indicates the weakest plans since the &quot;credit crunch&quot; recession of 1980. The Manpower Index level of -1 for 2Q09 follows a string of steadily declining readings since the series&#39; peak in 2005-06. These figures are seasonally adjusted.
During the last ten years there has been a 70% correlation between the level of the Manpower Index and the quarterly change in nonfarm payroll employment.Only the overall figure is seasonally adjusted while industry detail is not.
On a not seasonally adjusted basis, the 2Q level indicates that 15% of firms intend to raise employment and 14% expected to lower the number of jobs. No change in employment is expected by 67% of firms. This is up from an average 59% who expected no change from 2006 to 2008.
Plans for the second quarter in the manufacturing sector are quite weak with a net reading of -7. This reflects 13% of employers who expect to raise employment versus 20% who expect to decrease it. In the construction industries, 16% expect to increase hiring while 20% expect to cut. In financial businesses, 12% expect higher employment while 10% expect a lower number of jobs.
Weakness in hiring plans is evenly spread across the nation&#39;s regions.
The Manpower figures can be found in Haver&#39;s SURVEYS database.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S7/@S7.HTM">Manpower Inc Employment Outlook Surey</a></th>
<th scope="col">2Q 09</th>
<th scope="col">1Q 09</th>
<th scope="col">2Q 08</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Net Higher (SA, %)</td>
<td>-1</td>
<td>10</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>13</td>
<td>18</td>
<td>21</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The latest survey of hiring intentions by 31,800 employers, performed by Manpower Inc., indicates the weakest plans since the "credit crunch" recession of 1980. The Manpower Index level of -1 for 2Q09 follows a string of steadily [...]

Manpower Survey: 2Q09 Employment Seen As Weakest Since Credit Crunch Recession

Robert Brusca

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/090310f.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
IP drops sharply &#8211; Record drop in France 
Industrial production continues to show steep declines in the Zone.
France reported the largest decline to day since 1990 when the INSEE
series first began. Spain&#8217;s volatile index fell by 8.4% in January.
Italy&#8217;s index dropped by 2.8%. For these three countries of the EU,
three month declines in output range from an annual pace of -45% in
Spain to -26% in France. Over the past year Spain is off by 23% while
France and the UK see IP however by about 13%. Quarter-to-date in
January of 2009 IP is falling at an annual rate drop of greater than
20% in each of these countries and as much as -35% in Spain. 
 

Europe is STILL in denial: What? Me worry? 
Despite all this and despite new warnings of slower growth and a global
decline in growth from the IMF Europe seems distant. Trichet sounds
upbeat. Weber says there is no reason for the ECBs key lending rate to
go below 1%. Europe has spurned the US request for more stimulus. The
German&#8217;s have tuned a cold shoulder to France&#8217;s idea of cutting back
the VAT tax. Yet the EU commission, that bastion of fiscal
responsibility, is issuing a warning to Germany about excess spending. 
 

Alfred E Newman meets Euroland: Europe is
not on the same page as the IMF, the World Bank, or the US. Economists
in the US are talking about the prospect of DEPRESSION. In Europe they
are &#8216;la tee da&#8217; about the downturn treating it like a minor
inconvenience, not even as the powerful recession that it clearly is,
let alone acknowledging the risk of worsening. The EU Commission is
concerned about the Mass-Trick criterion for debt to GDP and about
annual fiscal deficits as if Europe were out of sorts with its fiscal
pledges in a boom year. A boom year it is not. Europe is in denial from
the EU Commission to the ECB itself. 
 

The industrial output index is not out of touch. It is taking
noting lightly, it is taking it on the chin. And that raises some
issues for Europe if policy is not going to be responsive to its
clearly deteriorating situation. 
 



<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr><th colspan="8" scope="col">Main E-zone Countries and UK IP in MFG
</th></tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="3">Mo/Mo</td>
<td>3-Mo</td>
<td>6-mo</td>
<td>12-mo</td>
<td>Jan-09</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">MFG Only</td>
<td>Jan-09</td>
<td>Dec-08</td>
<td>Nov-08</td>
<td>Jan-09</td>
<td>Jan-09</td>
<td>Jan-09</td>
<td>Q-2-Date</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">France: IP excl Construction</td>
<td>-3.1%</td>
<td>-1.5%</td>
<td>-2.8%</td>
<td>-26.0%</td>
<td>-21.3%</td>
<td>-13.8%</td>
<td>-26.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Spain</td>
<td>-8.4%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>-9.5%</td>
<td>-45.1%</td>
<td>-38.0%</td>
<td>-23.7%</td>
<td>-34.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">UK</td>
<td>-2.8%</td>
<td>-1.9%</td>
<td>-3.0%</td>
<td>-26.8%</td>
<td>-19.9%</td>
<td>-12.8%</td>
<td>-23.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="8" class="firstcol">Mo/Mo are simple percent changes
others are at SAARs</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

IP drops sharply – Record drop in France Industrial production continues to show steep declines in the Zone. France reported the largest decline to day since 1990 when the INSEE series first began. Spain’s volatile index fell by 8.4% [...]

IP Drops Sharply in the Euro Area's Early Reports

Louise Curley

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/090310g.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">Country after country has
been reporting declines in its
foreign trade. Imports are down as a result of falling incomes at home,
and exports are down as a result of falling incomes abroad. Today
France reported a 6.7% decline in exports in January from December
while Germany reported a 4.4% decline. From January 2008 to January
2009, French exports declined 21% while those in Germany declined
18.4%. <img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/090310h.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Imports in France were down17.6% in January from a year ago and
imports in Germany were down 11.1% over the same period. Exports from
France and Germany are shown in the first chart and imports into France
and Germany are shown in the second chart.
Germany typically runs a substantial trade surplus. It reached
a peak of 19.34 billion euros in November 2007. With exports declining
at a faster rate than imports, the balance on trade in goods has
trended downward and in January, 2009 was only 8.3 billion euros.
France, on the other hand has been running a growing trade deficit
since early 2004. <img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/090310i.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
The deficit improved in December to minus 2.95
billion euro from minus 5.67 billion in November but has worsened again
in January and is now at minus 4.55 billion euros. The balances on
trade in goods for France and Germany are shown in the third chart.
<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/090310j.jpg" align="right" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Automobiles and related products have been responsible for a
good part of the decline in exports in France and Germany. The fourth
chart shows exports of these products. The data only go through
December, but even by then the exports of these products were down
31.6% in Germany from a year ago and 44.4% in France. The fourth chart
shows these exports for France and Germany. 


<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">FOREIGN
TRADE (Bil Euros)</th>
<th scope="col">Jan 09</th>
<th scope="col">Dec 08&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Jan&nbsp; 08&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">M/M CHG&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y CHG</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">GERMANY</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Exports&nbsp;</td>
<td>68.95</td>
<td>72.13</td>
<td>84.25</td>
<td>-4.41%</td>
<td>-18.35%</td>
<td>990.18</td>
<td>968.36</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Imports&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
<td>60.64</td>
<td>61.11</td>
<td>68.23</td>
<td>-0.77%</td>
<td>-11.12%</td>
<td>813.46</td>
<td>771.96</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Balance</td>
<td>8.31</td>
<td>11.02</td>
<td>16.22</td>
<td>-2.71</td>
<td>-7.91</td>
<td>176.7</td>
<td>196.40</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">FRANCE</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Exports (Bil Euros)</td>
<td>28.74</td>
<td>30.80</td>
<td>36.37</td>
<td>-6.70%</td>
<td>-20.99%</td>
<td>412.00</td>
<td>403.12</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Imports&nbsp;&nbsp;</td>
<td>33.28</td>
<td>33.75</td>
<td>40.38</td>
<td>-1.38%</td>
<td>-17.57%</td>
<td>465.40</td>
<td>443.07</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Balance</td>
<td>-4.55</td>
<td>-2.95</td>
<td>-4.01</td>
<td>-1.59</td>
<td>-0.54</td>
<td>-53.4</td>
<td>-39.95</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

Country after country has been reporting declines in its foreign trade. Imports are down as a result of falling incomes at home, and exports are down as a result of falling incomes abroad. Today France reported a 6.7% decline in [...]

Foreign Trade in France and Germany: Casualties of the Recession

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/090310d.jpg" width="353">
According to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), small business optimism fell even further last month. The index level of 82.6 was down 1.8% month-to-month after a slightly revised 1.3% January decline. The latest level was 8.0% below the 2008 average and it was the second lowest level on record.
During the last ten years there has been a 49% correlation between the level of the NFIB index and the two-quarter change in real GDP.
The percentage of firms planning to raise prices dropped to 1%, a new record low. Price discounts were evident as the percentage of firms actually raising prices fell further into negative territory, and the reading was a record low. During the last ten years there has been a 69% correlation between the y/y change in the producer price index and the level of the NFIB price index.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/090310e.jpg" width="353">
The percent expecting credit conditions to ease fell further and was near its lowest level since 1980. The percent expecting higher real sales in six months fell to a net negative 29%, a record low.
The percentage expecting the economy to improve fell further into negative territory. The percentage reporting that now is a good time to expand the business fell to 3% which was the second lowest reading on record. During the next 3-6 months, plans for capital spending fell slightly and was still near the lowest level since 1975.
The percentage planning to raise employment improved just slightly to a net negative 3% while the percentage of respondents with one or more job openings was stable at 11%, the least since 1992. During the last ten years there has been a 71% correlation between the NFIB employment percentage and the y/y change in nonfarm payrolls.
The largest, single most important problems seen by business were poor sales (33%), taxes (19%), government requirements (10%), insurance cost and availability (8%), competition from large businesses (6%) and inflation (6%).
About 24 million businesses exist in the United States. Small business creates 80% of all new jobs in America.
The NFIB figures can be found in Haver&#39;s SURVEYS database. 
Financial Reform to Address Systemic Risk is this morning&#39;s speech by Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke at the Council on Foreign Relations, Washington, D.C. It is available <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20090310a.htm">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/SURVEYS/@S7/@S7.HTM">Nat&#39;l Federation of Independent Business</a></th>
<th scope="col">February</th>
<th scope="col">January</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Small Business Optimism Index (SA, 1986=100)</td>
<td>82.6</td>
<td>84.1</td>
<td>-11.1%</td>
<td>89.8</td>
<td>96.7</td>
<td>98.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

According to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), small business optimism fell even further last month. The index level of 82.6 was down 1.8% month-to-month after a slightly revised 1.3% January decline. The latest [...]

U.S. Small Business Optimism Nearing All-time Low

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/090310c.jpg" width="353">
Chain store sales ticked up 0.2% last week and began this month slightly above the February average, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers-Goldman Sachs Index. A moderate rebound in consumer spending is indicated by the 3.0% increase in the level of spending from the late-January low.
The chain store sales figures are available in Haver&#39;s SURVEYW database.
During the last ten years there has been a 64% correlation between the year-to-year growth in chain store sales and the growth in general merchandise sales.
The ICSC-Goldman Sachs retail chain-store sales index is constructed using the same-store sales (stores open for one year) reported by 78 stores of seven retailers: Dayton Hudson, Federated, Kmart, May, J.C. Penney, Sears and Wal-Mart.
The outlook for sales, however, remains cautious. The weekly leading indicator of chain store sales from ICSC-Goldman Sachs slipped another 0.2% last week and for all of February fell 2.3% from January (-4.4% y/y).
Inflation Targeting&#151;Central Bank Practice Overseas from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston can be found <a href="http://www.bos.frb.org/economic/ppb/2008/ppb081.pdf"> here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/surveyw/@S2/@S2.HTM">ICSC-UBS (SA, 1977=100)</a></th>
<th scope="col">03/07/09</th>
<th scope="col">02/28/09</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Weekly Chain Store Sales</td>
<td>484.1</td>
<td>483.0</td>
<td>-0.9%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>


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Chain store sales ticked up 0.2% last week and began this month slightly above the February average, according to the International Council of Shopping Centers-Goldman Sachs Index. A moderate rebound in consumer spending is indicated [...]

U.S. Chain Store Sales Are Up in Early March

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/090310a.jpg" width="353">
Regular gasoline prices were roughly stable last week, up one penny to $1.94 per gallon. That left the price still near the middle of the $1.89 to $1.96 range in place since early February but the latest was up 33 cents from the December low. Yesterday, the spot market price for regular gasoline was also about stable at $1.23. The figures are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy.
Weekly gasoline prices can be found in Haver&#39;s WEEKLY database. Daily prices are in the DAILY database.
Gasoline demand continued downward last week, according to the U.S. Energy Department. The y/y change of -0.4%, however, has moderated from the rate of decline seen last October when demand was falling 4.8% y/y. (Gasoline prices at the time were just off their peak.) The change in demand is measured using the latest four weeks versus the same four weeks in 2008. Demand for all petroleum products was down 1.3% year-to-year after the -8.0% comparison last October. These numbers are available in Haver&#39;s OILWKLY database.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/090310b.jpg" width="353">
The price for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose last week to $43.26 per barrel. That pulled prices to the high end of their recent range between $37.00 and $44.50 per barrel. Prices reached a high of $145.66 last July. In futures trading yesterday, the one-month price for crude oil rose even further to $47.07 per barrel. Last week&#39;s average was $43.26 and the February low was $36.91.
Also reported by the U.S. Energy Information Agency was that inventories of crude oil &amp; petroleum products rose 6.2% year-to-year after a 7.5% decumulation rate this past September. Distillate fuel oil inventories have risen by 21.8% year-to-year while gasoline inventories are off 8.0%. These demand &amp; inventory figures also are available in Haver&#39;s OILWKLY database.
The price of natural gas ticked up last week to $4.24 per mmbtu (-55.2% y/y), near the lowest level since September 2006. The latest average price was down more than two-thirds from the high reached in early-July of $13.19/mmbtu.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W4/@W4.HTM">Weekly Prices</a></th>
<th scope="col">03/09/09</th>
<th scope="col">03/02/09</th>
<th scope="col">Y/Y</th>
<th scope="col">2008</th>
<th scope="col">2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular)</td>
<td>1.94</td>
<td>1.93</td>
<td>-39.8%</td>
<td>3.25</td>
<td>2.80</td>
<td>2.57</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI&nbsp; ($ per bbl.)</td>
<td>43.26</td>
<td>41.81</td>
<td>-58.2%</td>
<td>100.16</td>
<td>72.25</td>
<td>66.12</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Regular gasoline prices were roughly stable last week, up one penny to $1.94 per gallon. That left the price still near the middle of the $1.89 to $1.96 range in place since early February but the latest was up 33 cents from the [...]

U.S. Gasoline Prices Are Stable; Crude Oil Prices Rise

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<img src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/090309a.jpg" align="left" border="0" height="265" width="353">
Japan&#8217;s economy watchers index is making further tentative
signs of rebounding from its very deep cyclical lows in this cycle. The
future index has made a more substantial bounced higher, but the
current index is rising too. The future index is still in the bottom
22% of its five year range. The headline index is only in the 8.5%
percentile of its range. But any improvement begins from where you are.
In December each of these measures was at a five year low. So this is
what the early signs of progress look like. It is too soon to take the
positive moves in these signs to the bank. But I think we have been
very oversold in markets and that commentators have been pessimistic
beyond what prudence would call for. Japan&#8217;s early signs join some from
the US that say conditions are not now getting worse. This may well be
among the first tentative steps on the road to eventual recovery. 



<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr><th colspan="8" scope="col">Key Japanese surveys</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="grey4">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="4">Raw readings of each survey</td>
<td colspan="3">Percent of 5Yr range*</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey4">
<td class="firstcol">Diffusion</td>
<td>Feb-09</td>
<td>Jan-09</td>
<td>Dec-08</td>
<td>Nov-08</td>
<td>Feb-09</td>
<td>Jan-09</td>
<td>Dec-08</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Economy Watchers</td>
<td>19.4</td>
<td>17.1</td>
<td>15.9</td>
<td>21.0</td>
<td>8.5%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Employment</td>
<td>11.9</td>
<td>10.1</td>
<td>8.5</td>
<td>15.7</td>
<td>5.9%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Future</td>
<td>26.5</td>
<td>22.1</td>
<td>17.6</td>
<td>24.7</td>
<td>22.8%</td>
<td>11.5%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">NTC MFG</td>
<td>31.6</td>
<td>29.6</td>
<td>30.8</td>
<td>36.7</td>
<td>7.0%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey2">
<td colspan="8">Econ Trends (Teikoku'/50
neutral/weighted diffusion)</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td class="firstcol">MFG</td>
<td>17.0</td>
<td>17.7</td>
<td>19.3</td>
<td>24.5</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td class="firstcol">Retail</td>
<td>20.5</td>
<td>21.6</td>
<td>21.3</td>
<td>24.4</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>1.5%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td class="firstcol">Wholesale</td>
<td>18.4</td>
<td>19.0</td>
<td>20.4</td>
<td>24.7</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td class="firstcol">Services</td>
<td>22.6</td>
<td>23.3</td>
<td>24.1</td>
<td>28.4</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td class="firstcol">Construction</td>
<td>18.2</td>
<td>18.6</td>
<td>19.1</td>
<td>21.4</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td colspan="8">100 is high; Zero is low</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

Japan’s economy watchers index is making further tentative signs of rebounding from its very deep cyclical lows in this cycle. The future index has made a more substantial bounced higher, but the current index is rising too. The [...]

Some Further Rebounding from Japan's Economy Watchers Index

China's export growth rotating away from the US

More pronounced upward revisions in countries more exposed to AI investment

Stable job openings and hiring rates point to cautious hiring

Global freight costs are on the rise while supply chain pressures are contained

Accelerating positive economic surprises in the G10 are boosting the global economy

Considerably more monetary ease expected from US and UK as Japan tightens

Tighter US immigration enforcement adversely impacting labor force

Economic policy uncertainty, while still elevated, is declining

Gradual disinflation and easier monetary policies across advanced economies

Largest October layoffs since 2003, led by technology

Subdued global shipping costs not yet pointing to supply chain problems

PMIs show still-elevated but slowing US inflation

AI boosting US investment in data centers

US productivity growth has been significantly faster than in other major economies

Consumers' short-term US inflation expectations still elevated while longer-term expectations of financial markets are steady

US financial markets have gotten used to elevated policy uncertainty

FOMC now expects more rate cuts going forward than in June

China gaining ASEAN exports while US exports slump

Job openings less than the number unemployed in July for first time since 2021

Reaccelerating goods price inflation along with sticky services inflation clouds the outlook

Falling oil prices aren't pulling down inflation expectations, pointing to a boost from increased tariffs

Equity market exuberance outpacing macroeconomic data

Apart from Japan, Blue Chip forecasters expect further sizable monetary easing

US production rebounded in Q2, but demand continued to slow

US leader, Germany trailer for real GDP growth over past 3 years

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Andrew Cates

**US trade with Europe** 
Geopolitical tensions surrounding Greenland have abruptly sharpened investor sensitivity to US trade and foreign-policy risk. What might once have been dismissed as rhetorical brinkmanship has taken on greater macro-financial relevance as Donald Trump has coupled renewed interest in Greenland’s strategic importance with explicit threats of higher tariffs on European imports. The first chart below highlights that the US is materially more exposed to EU goods than the EU is to US trade, making any escalation asymmetrically more costly for the US economy. Beyond the direct inflationary impact of higher tariffs, the more immediate risk lies in confidence effects and capital flows: early signs of capital reallocation away from US assets over the past 24 hours suggest that markets could be beginning to price a broader erosion of policy predictability. In this environment, tariffs risk functioning less as a targeted trade tool and more as a systemic confidence shock—tightening financial conditions, unsettling the dollar’s safe-haven status and increasing downside risks to US growth via weaker investment and higher risk premia.

260122Z1.jpg

**Japan’s JGB yields**
That said, recent capital outflows from US assets may owe as much to developments in Japan as to geopolitical and trade-related shocks. While tariff threats and policy unpredictability have clearly unsettled sentiment, an underappreciated driver of the sell-off in US Treasuries has been the sharp repricing in the Japanese government bond market. Renewed domestic political uncertainty and intensifying concerns over Japan’s debt dynamics have triggered a rapid rise in JGB yields, prompting portfolio rebalancing by Japanese investors and reducing the relative appeal of US duration. Given Japan’s role as one of the largest foreign holders of US Treasuries, yield gyrations at home can translate quickly into capital repatriation, hedging adjustments and reduced demand for US bonds. In this sense, recent moves in US yields may reflect less a direct reaction to geopolitical risk and more a globally transmitted capital-flow shock—originating in Japan but felt most acutely in US financial markets.

260122Z2.jpg

**Inflation expectations and oil prices**
Capital-flow dynamics may have also begun to spill over into how markets are pricing US inflation risk and monetary credibility. Historically, medium-term US inflation expectations have remained closely anchored to global energy prices, as illustrated by the strong co-movement between the 5-year forward inflation rate and Brent crude prices. More recently, however, that relationship has begun to fray: inflation expectations have proven notably resilient even as oil prices have softened, suggesting that markets are increasingly pricing political and policy risk rather than cost-push fundamentals alone. Renewed tariff threats under President Trump, combined with heightened geopolitical tensions involving Greenland and transatlantic relations, risk reinforcing concerns that future inflation outcomes could be shaped as much by political intervention as by macroeconomic conditions. Any perception that the Federal Reserve may face constraints on its operational independence would compound this shift—loosening inflation anchors, raising term premia and increasing the sensitivity of capital flows to US policy credibility.

260122Z3.jpg

**UK inflation** 
UK inflation data released this week show a small upside surprise in headline CPI at year-end. Headline CPI inflation specifically rose from 3.2% y/y in November to 3.4% in December, a little more than expected. The chart below shows that the pickup was driven by persistent underlying pressures—most notably in services. While a negative drag from energy prices has largely faded, services inflation continues to account for a disproportionate share of overall price growth, probably reflecting ongoing wage pressures and limited slack in parts of the domestic economy.

260122Z4.jpg

**Wage growth in the US and Europe** 
Labour-market data from the Indeed Hiring Lab reinforce the picture of persistent services-side pressure in the UK inflation mix. As the chart shows, UK posted wage growth remains elevated relative to both the euro area and the US, even though momentum has eased from its 2023 peak. At around the mid-5% range on a three-month moving average basis, UK wage growth is still running at a pace that is difficult to reconcile with a rapid return of services inflation to target. By contrast, posted wage growth in the euro area has slowed more decisively, while the US has seen a sharper deceleration from earlier extremes.

260122Z5.jpg

**China’s property market**
Finally, the Q4 GDP figures released in China this week sit uneasily alongside continued weakness in its domestic property sector, which remains a key drag on both investment and consumption. While Q4 growth of 4.5% y/y brought full-year GDP broadly in line with the authorities’ 5% target, the chart highlights how property-market adjustment is still running deep beneath the surface. Prices of existing homes across China’s 70 cities remain in year-on-year decline, while real estate investment continues to contract sharply, underscoring the scale and persistence of the sector’s retrenchment. This helps explain why fixed asset investment has softened further and why household demand remains subdued, despite more resilient industrial output.

260122Z6.jpg

This week’s data and market moves have been framed by an abrupt escalation in geopolitical tensions surrounding Greenland, which has served as a catalyst for broader financial unease rather than a standalone shock. The episode has sharpened investor focus on US policy predictability, amplifying concerns already evident in the charts on EU–US trade exposure, where tariff threats risk feeding directly into confidence effects and capital flows. At the same time, recent turbulence in Japanese government bonds appears to have been an underappreciated driver of the sell-off in US Treasuries, highlighting how global capital reallocation—rather than geopolitics alone—has contributed to higher US yields. These forces intersect with growing questions around the durability of US monetary credibility, as inflation expectations have shown signs of decoupling from traditional oil-price anchors, raising the sensitivity of markets to any perceived constraints on the Federal Reserve. Beyond the US, UK data delivered a modest upside surprise in headline inflation, with persistent services and wage pressures reinforcing a cautious policy backdrop for the Bank of England. In China, meanwhile, Q4 GDP growth of 4.5% y/y kept full-year expansion aligned with the government’s target, but continued weakness in the property sector remains a significant drag on investment and household confidence. Taken together, the week’s developments point to a global outlook increasingly shaped by geopolitical risk, capital-flow dynamics and domestic  structural constraints, rather than by straightforward cyclical momentum alone.

Charts of the Week: Seeing Green

Sandy Batten

260122N8.jpg

260122C8.jpg

Real GDP increased 4.4% q/q saar in the third quarter of 2025 in the final estimate, up marginally from 4.3% in the first release. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected no revision. Growth from a year ago was unrevised at 2.3% y/y. Growth of corporate profits was revised up to 4.5% q/q not annualized from 4.2% in the previous report.

The revision to GDP mostly reflected slightly stronger nonresidential fixed investment, a larger increase in exports and a smaller decrease in inventory investment. Nonresidential fixed investment increased a revised 3.2% q/q saar versus a 2.8% gain in the previous release. This reflected a smaller decline in structures, a smaller increase in equipment and a larger increase in intellectual property products than previously estimated. Residential investment was revised weaker with a 7.1% quarterly decline versus -5.1% in the previous estimate.

Upon revision, exports rose 9.6% q/q in Q3 versus 8.8% in the first estimate. Consequently, the trade deficit narrowed a little more than in the first estimate, resulting in net exports adding 1.62%-points to overall growth, 0.03%-point more previously estimated. The decline in inventory investment in Q3 was smaller than previously estimated, reducing the drag from inventories by 0.1%-point versus the previous estimate. The decline in inventories subtracted 0.12%-point in Q3 on top of a 3.44%-point subtraction in Q2.

Domestic demand growth remained solid in Q3 but was revised down 0.1%-point. Final sales to domestic purchasers grew a revised 2.8% q/q saar in Q3 versus 2.9% in the first estimate. Final sales to private domestic purchasers increased 2.9% q/q, down slightly from 3.0% previously.

260122O8.jpg

260122P8.jpg

The primary driver of overall growth continued to be personal consumption expenditures. They increased an unrevised 3.5% q/q saar in Q3, adding 2.34%-points to total GDP growth. This reflected a 3.0% increase in spending on goods versus 3.1% previously and a 3.6% gain in spending on services versus 3.7% previously. The rise in government spending was unrevised at 2.2% q/q. However, spending by the federal government was revised slightly slower to 2.7% from 2.9% while spending by state and local governments was revised up slightly to 2.0% from 1.8%.

Key measures of inflation were unrevised. Inflation as measured by the GDP price index remained at 3.8% q/q saar in Q3, but this was up markedly from 2.1% in Q2. Similarly, PCE inflation in Q3 was unrevised at 2.8% versus 2.1% in Q2. Core PCE inflation was also unrevised at 2.9% in Q3.

The GDP data can be found in Haver’s **USECON** and **USNA** databases. **USNA** contains virtually all of the Bureau of Economic Analysis detail in the national accounts. The Action Economics consensus estimates can be found in **AS1REPNA**.

260122Q8.jpg

260122S8.jpg

- Real GDP grew 4.4% q/q saar in Q3 2025, up slightly from 4.3% previously reported.
- The modest upward revision was due mostly to slightly stronger nonresidential fixed investment, a larger increase in exports and a smaller decrease in inventories.
- Growth of domestic demand remained solid in Q3 but was revised down 0.1%-point.
- GDP and PCE inflation were unrevised at 3.8% and 2.8%, respectively. Both are meaningful accelerations from Q2.

U.S. Q3 GDP Growth Revised Slightly Faster

Kathleen Stephansen, CBE

260122A2.jpg

260122B2.jpg

Initial claims for unemployment insurance edged up 1,000 to 200,000 in the week ending January 17, from 199,000 in the week ending January 10, revised from 198,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims was 201,500 in the January 17 week, down 3,750 from 205,250 in the January 10 week, revised from 205,000, and reaching the lowest level for this average since January 13, 2024, when it was 200,000.

Federal government employees initially filed 1010 (NSA) jobless insurance claims in the week ended January 10, after filing 646 (NSA) claims in the week ended January 3.

The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries – also known as “continuing claims” –decreased by 26,000 to 1.849 million in the week ended January 10 from 1.875 million in the week ending January 3, revised from 1.884 million. The four-week moving average was 1.871 million in the latest week, down from 1.887 million in the January 3 week, revised from 1.889 million. The insured unemployment rate remained at 1.2% in the week of January 10, unchanged from previous 6 weeks.

Federal government employees’ continuing benefits claims were 12,977 (NSA) in the week ending January 3, from 12,803 (NSA) in the week of December 27.

The insured unemployment rate varied greatly across individual states and territories. In the week ending January 3, the highest unemployment rates were in Rhode Island (3.27%), New Jersey (3.17%), Washington (2.85%), Minnesota (2.75%), Massachusetts (2.74%), Oregon (2.37%), Connecticut (2.31%), Montana (2.26%), California (2.21%), and Alaska (2.06%). The lowest rates were in Florida (0.29%), North Carolina (0.40%), and Louisiana (0.43%). Rates in other notable states include New York (2.28%), Pennsylvania (2.23%), Illinois (2.21%), and Texas (1.14%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.

Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s **WEEKLY** database and summarized monthly in **USECON**. Data for individual states are in **REGIONW** back to December 1986.

260122C2.jpg

260122D2.jpg

U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Edged Up in Latest Week

260122E.jpg

The National Bank of Belgium index for January 2026 rose to +4 from -1 in December, stronger than its November 2025 reading of +2. The survey value is exceptionally strong, lying in the top 6% of all observations back to 1991, even as the survey contains significant variations that range from strong to quite weak across its various components. What is most notable is that the index itself is extremely high-ranking; the current situation appraisal is also quite high-ranking; and, that the forecast for unemployment embedded in this survey is at a 35-year low. Considering current circumstances, against the events of the last 35 years, that's a rather remarkable finding especially considering the world situation.

**The times, they are a changin’ was Dylan 50 years early?** 
These have been remarkable times in a number of different ways with a clear transition from the circumstances of the post-war period under way. The solidarity of the NATO alliance is clearly in a situation in flux, revealed since Russia invaded Ukraine. Prior to that, the Europeans had resisted putting more money into the NATO pot as the United States had been frantically asking them while it funded most of the security umbrella. Now, in the wake of these new events, and with the changes to the global stage wrought by climate shifting, the U.S. finds Greenland to be a more important piece on the geopolitical chess board and wants to have more say there in order to protect its own flank as Arctic ice packs recede. This is after a period when NATO basically failed to engage in the front-line protections of its own doorstep that the U.S. had thought were necessary. Not surprisingly, the U.S. found that whole episode unsatisfactory and is now reluctant to give up control to NATO of what it regards as the protection of its own back door for the area around Greenland. But at last, Europe and the U.S. appear to have a deal or the makings of one, so, stay tuned. Maybe all civility is not lost.

**Geopolitical shifts meld with economic issues to change the landscape**
Geopolitical shifts are part of the problem because geopolitics and economics help shape one another. And there has been a great deal of economic turmoil as well. The U.S., after reassessing the Post War order, is bringing back to life tariffs, in order to try to get economic leverage after running 33 consecutive years of current account deficits under what people want to call a free trade system. The U.S. finds itself with a still very overvalued dollar and in a situation where its current account deficits are poised to continue to run high and perhaps get higher. Economists say tariffs are not the solution, but maybe they ARE the wake-up call that will lead to a solution? Europeans have also shifted to embracing a larger and larger government sector and ever larger fiscal deficits and more fiscal debt while absorbing migrants. This is constraining its ability to have any kind of a flexible macroeconomic policy and is a severe problem already for the U.K. and France. And these changes are wreaking havoc with what has been a very solid post-war Atlantic alliance.

**Views change**
But the changes that the U.S. has pushed on to the system from its geopolitical adventurism to its use of tariffs and other strong rhetorical comments have led economists to focus on the elevation of uncertainty in the economic system. Elevating uncertainty has an adverse impact on the economy and on growth. I mentioned this with the obvious caveat that this warning by economists seems to have been completely wrong. U.S. growth has turned out to be quite resilient and even strong. It is not the only adamant position that has proved to be wrong and malleable. Despite the reality of climate change, the view that once took carbon as the main and unequivocal climate change agent, itself is shifting. Opposition to carbon has dwindled, more as the U.S. is embracing nuclear power. Artificial intelligence is becoming a strong bet for stronger growth in the future, and this explains why there have been so many shifting views on energy since artificial intelligence requires massive amounts of energy and would make it impossible to make progress on carbon and to push ahead with the AI agenda at the same time. So, instead of delaying AI, the view on carbon had to go. So much for ‘science.’

**Why are Belgians so satisfied?**
The finding that in Belgium consumer confidence has risen sharply in this environment and fears of unemployment are the lowest they've been in 35 years is another shocking development in this pantheon of incredible and shocking changes. As the above discussion points out, a lot is changing and NATO is at odds with the U.S., its lynchpin. Yet, there is no clear increase in uncertainty in Belgium, while they maybe more in Brussels.

**The Belgian Survey: strong despite waffles**
Belgians do not read the economic situation over the next 12 months as that strong at a reading of -29 on the survey; it has weakened over the last few months, and the economic situation assessment is only at its 8.3 percentile, an extremely weak standing. Price trends are the opposite; they have eased somewhat in the recent months, but over the next 12 months the assessment still has a top 14-percentile evaluation. It is in this context that the unemployment forecast, which is the lowest in 35 years, emerges as surprising. The environment to make major household purchases over the next 12 months is only a mid-range at a 45.7 percentile standing. And people rate their financial situation over the next 12 months slightly better than at the end of last year but at only a 34.2 percentile standing. However, the appraisal of the current situation moved up sharply in January and has a 97.7 percentile standing, which is extremely strong.

260122.jpg

**Low unemployment fear spurs confidence**
The reason for consumer confidence to be strong is clear when you see how low concerns are about unemployment. But it's hard to understand why concerns about unemployment are so low with the rest of the economic metrics so varied in the survey. This is especially true with Belgium nestled in the heart of Europe and all of these concerns between the U.S. and NATO swirling around as well as a still very hot war occurring on Europe's border between Ukraine and Russia. Meanwhile, the U.S. position about this war continues to seem to back Ukraine a lot less than it should.

**Belgium is a good bellwether**
The Belgian survey is not the most important bit of economic activity. Belgium is not an extremely important country in Europe, although it's in the heart of the European Union, a member of the European Monetary Union, linked closely to Germany, and to other key European economies through trade, so that its performance likely is a good reflection of what's going on in Europe. It is not a European border country. It is in the heartland of Europe. That may explain a little bit why Belgians are not perhaps as nervous as Poles, are or Finns or the small Baltic countries, and others, with potentially more border proximity and vulnerability to the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

**Belgian optimism flies in out of the blue**
This is an observation. I think it's the kind of observation in this world economy that we find striking and unusual and will bear some further watching and some watching of other similar readings in Europe to see if there's evidence that there's some kind of new resilience that we might have missed. Economists seem hung-up broken-record style on uncertainty. Certainly, there's something here that economists have missed who have only seen these new actions by the U.S. as creating more uncertainty since we do not know what the new Greenland deal is. And uncertainty should create more adversity for growth except that it hasn't worked out that way. And it's a reminder that separating economics from geopolitics may take more than a crowbar. And also that uncertainty comes in many shapes and sizes while some may argue that there still is not a Greenland deal, what we see is a lowering of the temperature, a calming of the rhetoric and a sense that the parties have a horse trade they think they can do to resolve their differences. And while there is still uncertainty, there is also clear progress and a clear reduction in risk. Still, the times are changing.

Belgium

Belgian Consumer Confidence Up and Strong; Fear of Unemployment at 35-Year Low! Is That Possible?

Winnie Tapasanun

260121F.jpg

260121G.jpg

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking measure of home sales based on contract signings, fell 9.3% m/m to 71.8 in December following unrevised increases of 3.3% in November and 2.4% in October, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). December marked the first m/m fall since July and the steepest since April 2020. The year-on-year rate was -3.0% in December, the first negative y/y reading since September, compared to +2.6% in November and -5.0% in December 2024. The index had fallen 42.6% since its October 2021 high of 125.1. In 2025, the PHSI declined 0.9% after drops of 3.0% in 2024 and 16.1% in 2023.

The m/m fall in December pending home sales occurred alongside a decline in the average 30-year mortgage rate to 6.20% in December, the lowest since September 2024, down from 6.24% in November and 6.25% in October. These rates, while below a peak of 7.62% in October 2023, had remained higher than a low of 5.22% in August 2022 and more than double a record-low 2.68% in December 2020.

Pending home sales decreased m/m in December across all four major regions. The Midwest recorded the sharpest drop, with sales plunging 14.9% (-9.8% y/y) in December—the first m/m decline since September and the deepest since April 2020—after a 1.3% increase in November. Sales in the West slumped 13.3% (-5.1% y/y), the third m/m decrease in four months, following a 9.2% November rebound. Sales in the Northeast slid 11.0% (-3.6% y/y), the first m/m slide since August, after a 1.8% November rise. Sales in the South fell 4.0% (+2.0% y/y), the first m/m fall since June, after a 2.5% November gain.

The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for the purchase of an existing home is signed, similar to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed, which is usually a couple of months after the sales contract has been signed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity leads the level of closed existing home sales by about two months.

The series dates back to 2001 and are available in Haver's **PREALTOR** database. Weekly mortgage interest rates from the Mortgage Bankers Association can be found in the **WEEKLY** database.

- PHSI -9.3% m/m (-3.0% y/y) to 71.8 in Dec., lowest index level since July.
- Home sales m/m down in all four major regions, w/ the Midwest seeing the steepest drop (-14.9%).
- Home sales y/y down in the Northeast, Midwest, and West, but up in the South (+2.0%).

Economy in Brief: 2009

Jump to:

Manpower Survey: 2Q09 Employment Seen As Weakest Since Credit Crunch Recession

IP Drops Sharply in the Euro Area's Early Reports

Foreign Trade in France and Germany: Casualties of the Recession

U.S. Small Business Optimism Nearing All-time Low

U.S. Chain Store Sales Are Up in Early March

U.S. Gasoline Prices Are Stable; Crude Oil Prices Rise

U.S. Small Business Optimism Nearing All-time Low

Some Further Rebounding from Japan's Economy Watchers Index