Global| Mar 09 2009Some Further Rebounding from Japan's Economy Watchers Index
Summary
Japan’s economy watchers index is making further tentative signs of rebounding from its very deep cyclical lows in this cycle. The future index has made a more substantial bounced higher, but the current index is rising too. The [...]
Japan’s economy watchers index is making further tentative
signs of rebounding from its very deep cyclical lows in this cycle. The
future index has made a more substantial bounced higher, but the
current index is rising too. The future index is still in the bottom
22% of its five year range. The headline index is only in the 8.5%
percentile of its range. But any improvement begins from where you are.
In December each of these measures was at a five year low. So this is
what the early signs of progress look like. It is too soon to take the
positive moves in these signs to the bank. But I think we have been
very oversold in markets and that commentators have been pessimistic
beyond what prudence would call for. Japan’s early signs join some from
the US that say conditions are not now getting worse. This may well be
among the first tentative steps on the road to eventual recovery.
| Key Japanese surveys | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raw readings of each survey | Percent of 5Yr range* | ||||||
| Diffusion | Feb-09 | Jan-09 | Dec-08 | Nov-08 | Feb-09 | Jan-09 | Dec-08 |
| Economy Watchers | 19.4 | 17.1 | 15.9 | 21.0 | 8.5% | 2.9% | 0.0% |
| Employment | 11.9 | 10.1 | 8.5 | 15.7 | 5.9% | 2.8% | 0.0% |
| Future | 26.5 | 22.1 | 17.6 | 24.7 | 22.8% | 11.5% | 0.0% |
| NTC MFG | 31.6 | 29.6 | 30.8 | 36.7 | 7.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Econ Trends (Teikoku'/50 neutral/weighted diffusion) | |||||||
| MFG | 17.0 | 17.7 | 19.3 | 24.5 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Retail | 20.5 | 21.6 | 21.3 | 24.4 | 0.0% | 1.5% | 0.0% |
| Wholesale | 18.4 | 19.0 | 20.4 | 24.7 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Services | 22.6 | 23.3 | 24.1 | 28.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Construction | 18.2 | 18.6 | 19.1 | 21.4 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 100 is high; Zero is low | |||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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