The OECD leading indicators rose by a 'tick' to 99.7 in January from 99.6 in December. November was 99.4; October was 99.3. Clearly the strengthening trend continues, but it is a very mild and possibly fragile trend. The pace of [...]
Introducing
Robert Brusca
in:Our Authors
Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
Publications by Robert Brusca
Global| Feb 09 2021OECD Leading Indicators Advance
- Global| Feb 08 2021
German IP Is Flat in December: Trends Mixed
German IP data show several diverse and sometimes opposite trends. The graphic depicts year-on-year growth rates over 12 months and those show conditions that are either steadily improving (intermediate goods) or continuing to show [...]
- Global| Feb 05 2021
German Orders Log First Drop since April; Orders Fall 1.9%
German factory orders fell by 1.9% in December, their first monthly drop since April of last year. Of course, orders fell sharply in March and April of last year as the virus struck and struck hard – some places harder than others. [...]
- Global| Feb 04 2021
Euro Area Retail Sales Make Minor Rebound
Retail sales rose in December but did not gain back all the ground lost in November’s drop. December brought a month-to-month gain in sales volume of 2% in the wake of November’s 5.7% monthly drop. In fact, retail sales growth rates [...]
- Global| Feb 03 2021
Composite PMIs Show Very Mixed Global Conditions
The J.P.Morgan global PMI index is weaker month-to-month in January 2021. Emerging markets are weaker on the month, but developed economies are slightly stronger. In January, 10 of 22 countries report weaker conditions than one month [...]
- Global| Feb 02 2021
EMU GDP Growth Rates Cluster
The EMU region has just released its GDP growth rate which fell by 2.8% (saar) in Q4. Of the six early EMU reporters in the table, only two, Italy and France, showed GDP declines in Q4. This, however, is an odd quarter as it is the [...]
- Global| Feb 01 2021
Manufacturing Gradually Finds More Solid Ground
Nine reporters in the table have manufacturing sectors that took a step back in January while eight improved on the month. The unweighted average PMI reading edged lower to 53.9 in January from 54.2 in December. In Asia, the [...]
- Global| Jan 29 2021
GDP Rebounds in Q4 But Still Trails Trend
The table shows the early reporters of GDP in the EMU plus the U.S. result. On the far right, I present a percentile ranking of the year-on-year GDP growth rates on data back to 1997. Despite a massive rebound in GDP in Q3 – and one [...]
- Global| Jan 28 2021
European Commission Index Backs Off
The European Commission Index for the EMU area fell to 91.5 in January from 92.4 in December. It ranks in the lower 18.3% of all indexes released since 1988 (its queue or rank standing). The EMU index fell by 1% month-to-month. Among [...]
- Global| Jan 27 2021
German Consumer Confidence in February Is Projected Much Lower
The forward-looking GfK consumer confidence/climate gauge for February has stumbled for the fourth month in a row. Month-to-month the climate gauge fell by 8.1 points, its largest one-month drop since May 2020. Broad headline and [...]
- Global| Jan 26 2021
U.K. Retail Survey Shows Extreme Weakness
The U.K. retail volume survey conducted by the Confederation of British Industry (CBI) shows dramatically weakened data for January- and for the February outlook- as the U.K. implements what is still a severe economic lockdown. U.K. [...]
- Global| Jan 25 2021
German IFO Gauge Weakens Again
The IFO climate diffusion gauge fell to -0.6 in January after posting a 5.2 reading in December. The chart (tracking the IFO indexes instead of the diffusion gauges reported in the table) shows clear deterioration is afoot again. On [...]
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