The main message from the OECD LEIs in November is that not much is changing. The indicators for the OECD region, the U.S., the U.K., the EMU and China are little-changed and clustered around the neutral reading of 100. Japan and [...]
Introducing
Robert Brusca
in:Our Authors
Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
Publications by Robert Brusca
Global| Jan 12 2015OECD LEIs Move Sideways...for Now
- Global| Jan 09 2015
European Industrial Production Shows Very Mixed Trends
Of the eight early reporting EMU nations, three show output drops in November with Finland's output flat. However, over three months, there is still solid to strong output gains from this group of countries. Industrial output in the [...]
- Global| Jan 08 2015
EMU Indices Lie Somewhere between 'Stable' and 'Comatose' at Yearend
The year 2014 ends with the overall EU index at 104.2 and the index for the EMU at 100.7. These are not solid readings; the one for the EMU is especially lacking. However, both metrics are roughly stable month to month. In the table, [...]
During the euro area crisis, Europeans contended that the European Monetary Union was and is a political union much more than an economic union. And we can see that this is true because what is happening here is not for the betterment [...]
- Global| Jan 06 2015
Catch 22: German Inflation Meets EMU Growth
Even a relatively quick perusal of the EMU trends reveals that deceleration is well ensconced across the euro area. Reading the table from right to left, the 12-month to 6-month to 3-month averages by country and by sector are [...]
- Global| Jan 02 2015
EMU PMI Gauges Weaken as Divergence Reappears
Weakness is a problem for the European Monetary Union and it has been a problem of increasing magnitude - if not worry- over the course of 2014. But a bigger problem for EMU is divergence. In 2013 the divergence among EMU member [...]
- Global| Dec 30 2014
Spain's Inflation Makes Sharp Deceleration
With the European Monetary Union grappling with inflation and unsure what to do next, in some countries, the decision seems clearer than in others. Unfortunately, EMU monetary policy is one for all and all for one. In the chart, we [...]
- Global| Dec 22 2014
Germany Is Still Importing Deflation: How Long?
German import prices are holding relatively steady in negative territory, bringing a steady deflation impulse to the German economy. At the same time, German export prices have accelerated, rising at a 0.3% pace over 12 months to a [...]
- Global| Dec 19 2014
U.K. Confidence Dips; Will the Slip Be Ongoing?
The GfK reading for U.K. consumer confidence fell to -4 in December from -2 in November. The -4 reading is the weakest reading in nine months, since March's reading of -5. Since May, the index had been in a range of +1 to -3. The [...]
- Global| Dec 18 2014
German Ifo Bounces in December
The chart plots the Ifo indices and you can easily see that the climate, current and expectations indices bounced higher in December from a local low in November. The index readings are still weak in the sense of being lethargic, not [...]
- Global| Dec 17 2014
EMU's HICP Stays 1.7% Below Targeted Pace
The euro area's HICP inflation is up by 0.3% year over year. The core is up by 0.7% on that horizon. Inflation in the four largest EMU economics is at an annual rate of 0.4% or less; Spain's price level is falling. Core prices among [...]
- Global| Dec 16 2014
EMU PMI-The Sum Is Stronger Than Its Two Largest Parts; EMU Up; France & Germany Down
The overall EMU flash PMI rose to 51.7 in December from 51.1 in November. The EMU moving averages for 12-months to 6-months to 3-months show a steady deterioration for the total EMU PMI and the EMU manufacturing PMI. The EMU services [...]
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