There is no magic in the OECD leading indicators this month. Yet, there is some positive momentum in play. The OECD likes to look at these indicators compared to six months ago so we provide a view of six-month changes and levels in [...]
Introducing
Robert Brusca
in:Our Authors
Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
Publications by Robert Brusca
Global| Jan 11 2017OECD Leading Indicators Disappoint and Fail to Illuminate
- Global| Jan 10 2017
Japan's Confidence: Bounce to Nowhere
Japan's consumer confidence, a diffusion measure, rose sharply month-to-month, regaining the ground it lost on the previous month's sharp drop. Despite the jump, there is little lift in the series that lingers below the neutral mark [...]
- Global| Jan 09 2017
EMU: Fast Rising Inflation Meets Falling Unemployment Trend-Collison Course!
In the euro area, unemployment which was flat month-on-month in November is nonetheless moving lower on trend as the inflation rate has spiked up, boosted by oil. This combination of motions is surely going to put pressure on the ECB [...]
- Global| Jan 06 2017
German Orders Fall Sharply in November But Acceleration Pattern Is Still in Place
German orders fell sharply in November but only after an even larger gain in October, one that in percentage terms was twice the size of the November drop. On balance, orders still carry upward momentum from their October spurt. [...]
- Global| Jan 05 2017
EMU PPI Shows Widespread Gains; Is It Inflation or a Dog Quacking?
PPI, CPI, 'X'PI- you name the 'X' factor- just about any kind of price indexes is on the rise these days. Oil prices now have a nice head of steam and price increases over horizons from X to Y (again, you fill in the blanks) are on [...]
- Global| Jan 04 2017
Euro Area Manufacturing and Services PMIs Spurt as Inflation Lights Up
Note how clearly the 'blue line' leads... The way down; the way up; the mini-cycles... Be careful what you wish for... The euro area PMIs for manufacturing and services are heating up. The region no longer looks so growth-challenged, [...]
- Global| Jan 03 2017
Euro Area PMI Rises While Asia Stumbles, Global Risk Rises and Investment Trends Realign
Manufacturing PMI data for the most part show ongoing expansion and improvement. Of the 17 key manufacturing reporters in the table, only five show manufacturing PMI values below 50 indicating sector contraction. Only five have [...]
- Global| Dec 30 2016
Spain's HICP Spurts into the Land of Policy Dispute
Spain offers a very early read on inflation in December. The headlines of the HICP and CPI show a spurt in progress with a nearly 1% gain (0.8% and 0.9%, respectively) in the HICP and CPI readings in the month of December alone. These [...]
- Global| Dec 29 2016
EMU Credit Growth Stirs...Is It Meaningful?
Money supply growth in the EMU and globally is still on trend or weaker. The lone exception here is a three-month pick-up in Japan's nominal monetary growth that is not reflected by a speed up in real money balances. But credit in the [...]
- Global| Dec 28 2016
Surprise Confidence Rise in Troubled Italy
Italian consumer confidence jumped to an index reading of 111.1 in December from 108.1 in November. The confidence index which had peaked in this cycle in November 2015 had been in a steady slide and had fallen or been flat in seven [...]
- Global| Dec 27 2016
Japan, the U.S. and EMU CPI Trends in Profile
Japan continues to see weak prices in train. Even in a global environment where inflation trends are weak, Japan's trend is still weaker than trends for other major competitors. As much as the bank of Japan has tried to pump up [...]
- Global| Dec 22 2016
Italian Retail Sales Rebound
Italian retail sales are up sharply in October after falling for three consecutive months. The month's gain is large enough that the three-month annualized growth rate is now accelerating from 12-month to six-month to three-month. [...]
- of362Go to 165 page