- Firmer expectations offset dimmer views on the present situation.
- Although views on the present situation dipped, assessments of the labor market picked up.
Introducing
Michael J. Moran
in:Our Authors
Before joining Haver Analytics in 2025, Michael J. Moran was the chief economist of Daiwa Capital Markets America Inc. He was responsible for preparing the firm’s economic forecast and interest rate outlook. He traveled frequently to visit the clients of Daiwa Capital Markets and wrote weekly economic commentary. Mr. Moran also was involved in the flux of financial markets, as he spent a portion of each day on Daiwa’s trading floor interpreting economic statistics and Federal Reserve activity for traders and salespeople. Mr. Moran is quoted frequently in the financial press, and he appears regularly on cable news shows. He also has published articles in several journals and periodicals. Before joining Daiwa Capital Markets America, Mr. Moran worked as an economist at the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C. where he analyzed a broad range of issues dealing with the financial sector of the economy and regularly briefed the Board of Governors. He was on the faculty of Pennsylvania State University from 1979 to 1980 and taught on a part-time basis at George Washington University from 1980 to 1987.
Mr. Moran received his Ph.D. in economics from Pennsylvania State University in 1980 and a B.S. in business administration from the University of Bridgeport in 1975. He was a CFA charter holder from 2002 until 2016.
Publications by Michael J. Moran
USA| Feb 24 2026Consumer Confidence: Improvement in February from Upward Revised Levels in January, but Individuals Are Still Unhappy
- January results showed noticeable improvement from prior months.
- All four components contribute positively.
USA| Feb 20 2026Q4 GDP: Constrained by Federal Spending
- Non-federal activity was lighter than expected, but still respectable.
- PCE inflation remains stubborn.
USA| Feb 18 2026Durable Goods Orders: Irregular Upward Trend Continues
- A broad-based advance in December offset a drop in aircraft bookings.
- Unfilled orders are beginning to build.
- Orders for nondefense capital goods ex-aircraft remain on a solid path.
USA| Feb 13 2026Consumer Price Index: Slow, but Steady, Deceleration
- The year-over-year change in the headline index moved to the bottom of its recent range.
- The annual change in the core index moved to a new low for the current cycle.
USA| Feb 11 2026January Employment Report: The Labor Market Has a Pulse
• The increase in employment in January was firm, although narrowly based. • The unemployment rate dipped for the second consecutive month, led by strong employment as measured by the household survey. • The benchmark revision included with this report showed that job growth in much of 2024 and early 2025 was softer than previously believed.
USA| Feb 10 2026Employment Cost Index: Continued Deceleration
- Vigorous growth during the pandemic-related recovery gives way to moderate advances recently.
- Labor costs seem in line with the Fed’s inflation target.
- Prices of food and energy declined in December, but service prices surged.
- Prices of goods excluding food and energy rose more than the recent average, but the change did little damage to the underlying trend.
USA| Jan 29 2026Revised Productivity: No adjustment to Robust Growth in Q3
- Strong growth in output with little increase in labor input reinforced a firm underlying trend in productivity.
- Efficiency gains in Q3 more than offset growth in labor compensation.
USA| Jan 27 2026Consumer Confidence Tumbled in January
- Both expectations and assessments of the present situation contributed to the decline
- The index moved to a new low for the current cycle.
- A softening labor market played a role.
USA| Jan 15 2026Import & Export Prices: Generally Modest Changes
- Import prices have changed little in the past three years.
- Export prices were stable in 2023-24, but moved higher in 2025.
USA| Jan 14 2026Producer Prices: Range Bound Since Mid-2024
- Offsetting drifts in final demand for goods and services leave inflation steady at 3%.
- Inflation quickens for producers of intermediate goods and services.
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