Carol Stone, CBE

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070912e.jpg" width="353">
Industrial production in India has declined for two months now, with the July data out today showing a 3.2% drop from June in figures seasonally adjusted by Haver Analytics. This pulled July&#39;s year-on-year growth to 7.1% (not seasonally adjusted) from 10.4% in Q2 and 12.5% in Q1. The peak individual growth month was November 2006, which was a striking 15.8% above November 2005.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070912f.jpg" width="353">
In the manufacturing sector, which makes up 79% of this index, a variety of industries have participated in this recent slowing. Wood products are perhaps most notable: including furniture and fixtures, this group lurched upward dramatically from December through March and moved irregularly after that, falling nearly 24% in July. The same pattern, though less extreme, is found in machinery production. It fell in the latest month by 9.5%, but, as seen in the second graph, it had expanded greatly in May, by 14.5% in fact, to an elevated level. We plot it here along with total manufacturing and another leading industry, rubber, plastics and petroleum. To see their movements in relation to each other, we can use Haver&#39;s DLXVG3 &quot;scale option&quot; to put all of these series on some convenient index base; here, if we use 2005, we see that overall, the broad manufacturing sector along with the machinery industry and the rubber &amp; plastics products group have grown along very similar trends since 2005. The July decline in machinery only just brought it back in line with the others.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070912g.jpg" width="353">
Not all industries show this exact behavior, up in the previous few months and then down in July. Others seem to be plateauing following an earlier run-up. Examples cut across industry types: basic metals, nonmetallic mineral products and chemicals. Only transportation equipment appears to be in an outright downtrend.
The one sector among Indian industries that is growing persistently is electric utilities. Electrical output was up 7.5% in July from a year ago. As the final graph shows, year-to-year growth rates are highly volatile. So, using DLXVG3&#39;s new nesting capability, we&#39;ve averaged them over 12-month periods to find the trend. The July value of this measure is 7.9% and was 8.0% in June. These two months are the strongest since Q1 of 1996, more than 11 years ago. Overall industrial production grows faster, but notably in recent months, as the broader measure has gyrated, the electricity sector has moved more steadily higher. This means that non-industrial users are finding new ways to utilize electric power, taking up the slack when industry slows.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">INDIA, 1993/94 = 100*</th>
<th scope="col">July 2007</th>
<th scope="col">June 2007</th>
<th scope="col">May 2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Index of Industrial Production</td>
<td>256.2</td>
<td>264.6</td>
<td>268.4</td>
<td>239.6</td>
<td>216.7</td>
<td>200.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Mo/Mo % Change</td>
<td>-3.2</td>
<td>-1.4</td>
<td>2.8</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Yr/Yr % Change</td>
<td>7.1</td>
<td>9.0</td>
<td>10.9</td>
<td>10.5</td>
<td>7.9</td>
<td>8.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Manufacturing Index</td>
<td>273.6</td>
<td>283.8</td>
<td>287.7</td>
<td>255.0</td>
<td>228.7</td>
<td>209.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Yr/Yr % Change</td>
<td>7.2</td>
<td>9.9</td>
<td>11.7</td>
<td>11.5</td>
<td>9.0</td>
<td>8.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Electricity Index</td>
<td>220.1</td>
<td>215.3</td>
<td>217.5</td>
<td>201.5</td>
<td>188.0</td>
<td>180.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Yr/Yr % Change</td>
<td>7.5</td>
<td>6.8</td>
<td>9.4</td>
<td>7.2</td>
<td>4.0</td>
<td>7.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Industrial production in India has declined for two months now, with the July data out today showing a 3.2% drop from June in figures seasonally adjusted by Haver Analytics. This pulled July's year-on-year growth to 7.1% (not [...]

India's Industrial Sector Downshifts in July After Spring Acceleration

Robert Brusca

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070912d.jpg" width="353">
Japan&#39;s current account surplus shrinks in July. 
The terms of trade have turned against Japan over the past year as export prices rose by just 10.2% and import prices rose by 26.3%. Exports and imports have been in a broader slowing but in the recent three months they accelerated from Q1 weakness. Japan&#146;s exports and imports are showing signs of catching on and reaccelerating after this slowdown. Japan&#146;s surplus is reviving, albeit erratically. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
Japan Current Account Trends
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>Jul-07</td>
<td>Jun-07</td>
<td>May-07</td>
<td>3-Mo</td>
<td>6-Mo</td>
<td>12-Mo</td>
<td>12 mo Prev</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Current Account in $, Mln</td>
<td>$ 14,446</td>
<td>$ 16,682</td>
<td>$ 18,435</td>
<td>$ 16,521</td>
<td>$ 16,879</td>
<td>$ 15,948</td>
<td>$ 13,919</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="8">IN Yen, 100 Mln</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Overall Balance</td>
<td>17,539</td>
<td>20,467</td>
<td>22,264</td>
<td>20,090</td>
<td>20,269</td>
<td>18,982</td>
<td>16,052</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Balance on Goods</td>
<td>8,434</td>
<td>8,923</td>
<td>9,634</td>
<td>8,997</td>
<td>9,485</td>
<td>9,266</td>
<td>7,556</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Export Goods % SAAR</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>25.1%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>11.1%</td>
<td>29.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Import Goods %, SAAR</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>8.4%</td>
<td>67.7%</td>
<td>17.1%</td>
<td>11.8%</td>
<td>33.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Services Balance</td>
<td>(2,371)</td>
<td>(1,898)</td>
<td>(2,060)</td>
<td>(2,110)</td>
<td>(2,085)</td>
<td>(1,966)</td>
<td>(1,795)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="8">Prices In %, SAAR</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Export Prices</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>15.8%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>10.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Import Prices</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>34.1%</td>
<td>5.1%</td>
<td>8.9%</td>
<td>26.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Memo: Yen/$</td>
<td>121.41</td>
<td>122.69</td>
<td>120.77</td>
<td>121.62</td>
<td>120.26</td>
<td>119.03</td>
<td>115.29</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Japan's current account surplus shrinks in July. The terms of trade have turned against Japan over the past year as export prices rose by just 10.2% and import prices rose by 26.3%. Exports and imports have been in a broader slowing [...]

Japan’s Export and Import Growth Slow Then Rebound and Steady

Tom Moeller

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070912a.jpg" width="353">
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in the Job Openings &amp; Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) that the July job openings rate was unchanged from the prior month at 3.0%. Nevertheless, it still was the highest level since January. The job openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings.
The actual number of job openings fell 1.3% m/m to 4.225 million (+8.6% y/y). Private sector openings fell 1.6% m/m (+10.1% y/y) as widespread declines were registered in the professional &amp; business services (-1.6% m/m), retail trade (-1.2% m/m) and transportation &amp; utilities (-2.4% m/m) industries. Notably (job openings in the construction industry rose 22.3% m/m.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070912b.jpg" width="353">
The hires rate improved slightly m/m to 3.5% and made up a bit of the prior month&#39;s decline. The recent peak for this series was one year earlier at 3.8%. The hires rate is the number of hires during the month divided by employment.
The actual number of hires rose 1.6% (-6.3% y/y) to 4.816 million. Retail sector jobs rose by 2.0% (-19.6% y/y) making only a small piece of June&#39;s 15.4% drop. Hires in the construction industry rose by 14.8% (9.0% y/y) and factory sector jobs were about unchanged m/m (-5.6% y/y).
The job separations rate in July fell slightly m/m to 3.2%. Separations include quits, layoffs, discharges, and other separations as well as retirements. The total separations, or turnover, rate is the total number of separations during the month divided by employment. The level of job separations fell a harder 1.4% (-3.5% y/y) from June.
The JOLTS survey dates only to December 2000 but has since followed the movement in nonfarm payrolls, though the actual correlation between the two series is low.
A description of the Jolts survey and the latest release from the U.S. Department of Labor is available <a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm">here</a>.
Yesterday&#39;s speech by Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, Global Imbalances: Recent Developments and Prospects, can be found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20070911a.htm">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EB/@EB14/@EB14.HTM">JOLTS</a> (Job Openings &amp; Labor &nbsp;Turnover Survey)</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">July &#39;06</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Job Openings Rate: Total</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Hires Rate: Total</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>43.6%</td>
<td>43.1%</td>
<td>41.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in the Job Openings & Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) that the July job openings rate was unchanged from the prior month at 3.0%. Nevertheless, it still was the highest level since January. The [...]

JOLTS: Job Openings Unchanged, Hires Rate Improved (Slightly)

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070912a.jpg" width="353">
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in the Job Openings &amp; Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) that the July job openings rate was unchanged from the prior month at 3.0%. Nevertheless, it still was the highest level since January. The job openings rate is the number of job openings on the last business day of the month as a percent of total employment plus job openings.
The actual number of job openings fell 1.3% m/m to 4.225 million (+8.6% y/y). Private sector openings fell 1.6% m/m (+10.1% y/y) as widespread declines were registered in the professional &amp; business services (-1.6% m/m), retail trade (-1.2% m/m) and transportation &amp; utilities (-2.4% m/m) industries. Notably (job openings in the construction industry rose 22.3% m/m.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070912b.jpg" width="353">
The hires rate improved slightly m/m to 3.5% and made up a bit of the prior month&#39;s decline. The recent peak for this series was one year earlier at 3.8%. The hires rate is the number of hires during the month divided by employment.
The actual number of hires rose 1.6% (-6.3% y/y) to 4.816 million. Retail sector jobs rose by 2.0% (-19.6% y/y) making only a small piece of June&#39;s 15.4% drop. Hires in the construction industry rose by 14.8% (9.0% y/y) and factory sector jobs were about unchanged m/m (-5.6% y/y).
The job separations rate in July fell slightly m/m to 3.2%. Separations include quits, layoffs, discharges, and other separations as well as retirements. The total separations, or turnover, rate is the total number of separations during the month divided by employment. The level of job separations fell a harder 1.4% (-3.5% y/y) from June.
The JOLTS survey dates only to December 2000 but has since followed the movement in nonfarm payrolls, though the actual correlation between the two series is low.
A description of the Jolts survey and the latest release from the U.S. Department of Labor is available <a href="http://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm">here</a>.
Yesterday&#39;s speech by Federal Reserve Board Chairman Ben S. Bernanke, Global Imbalances: Recent Developments and Prospects, can be found <a href="http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/bernanke20070911a.htm">here</a>.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@EB/@EB14/@EB14.HTM">JOLTS</a> (Job Openings &amp; Labor &nbsp;Turnover Survey)</th>
<th scope="col">July</th>
<th scope="col">June</th>
<th scope="col">July &#39;06</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Job Openings Rate: Total</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Hires Rate: Total</td>
<td>3.5%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>43.6%</td>
<td>43.1%</td>
<td>41.7%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
India's Industrial Sector Downshifts in July After Spring Acceleration 
by <a href="/comment/Stone.html">Carol Stone</a> September 12, 2007


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070912e.jpg" width="353">
Industrial production in India has declined for two months now, with the July data out today showing a 3.2% drop from June in figures seasonally adjusted by Haver Analytics. This pulled July&#39;s year-on-year growth to 7.1% (not seasonally adjusted) from 10.4% in Q2 and 12.5% in Q1. The peak individual growth month was November 2006, which was a striking 15.8% above November 2005.<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070912f.jpg" width="353">
In the manufacturing sector, which makes up 79% of this index, a variety of industries have participated in this recent slowing. Wood products are perhaps most notable: including furniture and fixtures, this group lurched upward dramatically from December through March and moved irregularly after that, falling nearly 24% in July. The same pattern, though less extreme, is found in machinery production. It fell in the latest month by 9.5%, but, as seen in the second graph, it had expanded greatly in May, by 14.5% in fact, to an elevated level. We plot it here along with total manufacturing and another leading industry, rubber, plastics and petroleum. To see their movements in relation to each other, we can use Haver&#39;s DLXVG3 &quot;scale option&quot; to put all of these series on some convenient index base; here, if we use 2005, we see that overall, the broad manufacturing sector along with the machinery industry and the rubber &amp; plastics products group have grown along very similar trends since 2005. The July decline in machinery only just brought it back in line with the others.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070912g.jpg" width="353">
Not all industries show this exact behavior, up in the previous few months and then down in July. Others seem to be plateauing following an earlier run-up. Examples cut across industry types: basic metals, nonmetallic mineral products and chemicals. Only transportation equipment appears to be in an outright downtrend.
The one sector among Indian industries that is growing persistently is electric utilities. Electrical output was up 7.5% in July from a year ago. As the final graph shows, year-to-year growth rates are highly volatile. So, using DLXVG3&#39;s new nesting capability, we&#39;ve averaged them over 12-month periods to find the trend. The July value of this measure is 7.9% and was 8.0% in June. These two months are the strongest since Q1 of 1996, more than 11 years ago. Overall industrial production grows faster, but notably in recent months, as the broader measure has gyrated, the electricity sector has moved more steadily higher. This means that non-industrial users are finding new ways to utilize electric power, taking up the slack when industry slows.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">INDIA, 1993/94 = 100*</th>
<th scope="col">July 2007</th>
<th scope="col">June 2007</th>
<th scope="col">May 2007</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Index of Industrial Production</td>
<td>256.2</td>
<td>264.6</td>
<td>268.4</td>
<td>239.6</td>
<td>216.7</td>
<td>200.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Mo/Mo % Change</td>
<td>-3.2</td>
<td>-1.4</td>
<td>2.8</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Yr/Yr % Change</td>
<td>7.1</td>
<td>9.0</td>
<td>10.9</td>
<td>10.5</td>
<td>7.9</td>
<td>8.5</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Manufacturing Index</td>
<td>273.6</td>
<td>283.8</td>
<td>287.7</td>
<td>255.0</td>
<td>228.7</td>
<td>209.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Yr/Yr % Change</td>
<td>7.2</td>
<td>9.9</td>
<td>11.7</td>
<td>11.5</td>
<td>9.0</td>
<td>8.9</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Electricity Index</td>
<td>220.1</td>
<td>215.3</td>
<td>217.5</td>
<td>201.5</td>
<td>188.0</td>
<td>180.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Yr/Yr % Change</td>
<td>7.5</td>
<td>6.8</td>
<td>9.4</td>
<td>7.2</td>
<td>4.0</td>
<td>7.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
Japan’s Export and Import Growth Slow Then Rebound and Steady 
by <a href="/comment/Brusca.html">By Robert Brusca</a> September 12, 2007


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070912d.jpg" width="353">
Japan&#39;s current account surplus shrinks in July. 
The terms of trade have turned against Japan over the past year as export prices rose by just 10.2% and import prices rose by 26.3%. Exports and imports have been in a broader slowing but in the recent three months they accelerated from Q1 weakness. Japan&#146;s exports and imports are showing signs of catching on and reaccelerating after this slowdown. Japan&#146;s surplus is reviving, albeit erratically. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
Japan Current Account Trends
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>Jul-07</td>
<td>Jun-07</td>
<td>May-07</td>
<td>3-Mo</td>
<td>6-Mo</td>
<td>12-Mo</td>
<td>12 mo Prev</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Current Account in $, Mln</td>
<td>$ 14,446</td>
<td>$ 16,682</td>
<td>$ 18,435</td>
<td>$ 16,521</td>
<td>$ 16,879</td>
<td>$ 15,948</td>
<td>$ 13,919</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="8">IN Yen, 100 Mln</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Overall Balance</td>
<td>17,539</td>
<td>20,467</td>
<td>22,264</td>
<td>20,090</td>
<td>20,269</td>
<td>18,982</td>
<td>16,052</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Balance on Goods</td>
<td>8,434</td>
<td>8,923</td>
<td>9,634</td>
<td>8,997</td>
<td>9,485</td>
<td>9,266</td>
<td>7,556</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Export Goods % SAAR</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>25.1%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>11.1%</td>
<td>29.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Import Goods %, SAAR</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>2.4%</td>
<td>8.4%</td>
<td>67.7%</td>
<td>17.1%</td>
<td>11.8%</td>
<td>33.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Services Balance</td>
<td>(2,371)</td>
<td>(1,898)</td>
<td>(2,060)</td>
<td>(2,110)</td>
<td>(2,085)</td>
<td>(1,966)</td>
<td>(1,795)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="8">Prices In %, SAAR</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Export Prices</td>
<td>-1.3%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>15.8%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>10.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Import Prices</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>34.1%</td>
<td>5.1%</td>
<td>8.9%</td>
<td>26.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Memo: Yen/$</td>
<td>121.41</td>
<td>122.69</td>
<td>120.77</td>
<td>121.62</td>
<td>120.26</td>
<td>119.03</td>
<td>115.29</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
12 mo Prev 
by <a href="/comment/Brusca.html">By Robert Brusca</a> Euro Area Output Rebounds in July September 12, 2007


<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070912c.jpg" width="353">
Trends in Euro area production seem solid; recent months seem less certain. 
The chart shows that there were several months of output slowdown in early to mid summer period. July, however, brings a rebound to what had been flagging trends. The three-month trend is clearly revived; the others are not revived as clearly, but their decline is arrested. And with the financial turmoil in markets we will want to see August and September data for sure to draw meaningful conclusions about trend. 
May was a strong month for output and by and large it has carried the quarter. Output for capital goods and for intermediate goods has expanded steadily in recent months, but intermediate goods is off to a weak start in Q3. For consumer goods, June and July are a weak pair of months for output and consumer goods output is off to a moderate start in Q3 as well. 
Major Euro area countries that have reported have showed output strength in the recent three months. Germany alone has weak trends in June and July. The UK, an EU member, has had three weak months in a row and its output is lower in the new quarter compared to Q2. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
Euro area and UK IP and MFG
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">Saar except m/m</td>
<td colspan="3">Mo/Mo</td>
<td>Jul-07</td>
<td>Jul-07</td>
<td>Jul-07</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Euro area Detail</td>
<td>Jul-07</td>
<td>Jun-07</td>
<td>May-07</td>
<td>3-Mo</td>
<td>6-mo</td>
<td>12-mo</td>
<td>Q-2-Date</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">MFG</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>5.6%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Goods</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>2.8%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Durable Goods</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Nondurable Goods</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>-0.4%</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>2.0%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Intermediate Goods</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>0.9%</td>
<td>6.1%</td>
<td>2.3%</td>
<td>3.7%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Capital Goods</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>9.5%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>6.3%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Memo: MFG</td>
<td>1-Mo%</td>
<td>1-Mo%</td>
<td>1-Mo%</td>
<td>3-Mo</td>
<td>6-mo</td>
<td>12-mo</td>
<td>Q-2-Date</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Germany</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>7.0%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>5.7%</td>
<td>3.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">France: IP excl Construction</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>5.9%</td>
<td>3.9%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>6.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Spain</td>
<td>1.9%</td>
<td>-3.9%</td>
<td>6.8%</td>
<td>19.3%</td>
<td>-8.6%</td>
<td>4.2%</td>
<td>8.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">UK</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Louise Curley

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070911e.jpg" width="353">
China&#39;s trade surplus rose to $24,974 million in August. the second highest on record. The trade surplus with the United States was $15,003 million and that was an all time high. The total surplus and that with the U.S. are shown in the first chart. (These are the data that are quoted in the press. They are not seasonally adjusted. Haver adjusts the data for seasonality and the occurrence of the Chinese New Year for China in the EMERGEPR data base. The adjusted data are shown in the second chart.)<img align="right" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070911g.jpg" width="353">
While the unrelenting increases in the surplus with the United States are causing increased tension between the two countries, it should be noted that the gap between the total surplus and that with the US is widening, indicating that surpluses with some other countries are increasing faster than that with the U. S. In August, China&#39;s surplus with Europe, for example, was at an all time high of $12,744 million and it has been rising faster that that of the U. S., as can be seen in the third chart.<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070911f.jpg" width="353">
Much of the China trade data can be found in either of the CHINA or the EMERGEPR data bases. In some cases one may be more up to date than the other or one might have more detail. For example, August data for the trade balance with Europe are available in the EMERGEPR data base but not in the CHINA data base. Although not so up to date as EMERGEPR in this instance, CHINA has far more country detail than the former. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol">CHINA:&nbsp; TRADE IN GOODS&nbsp;&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Aug 07</th>
<th scope="col">Jul 07&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Jun 07&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">May 07&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">Apr 07&nbsp;</th>
<th scope="col">2006</th>
<th scope="col">2005</th>
<th scope="col">2004</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total Trade Balance (Bil US$)&nbsp;</td>
<td>25.0</td>
<td>24.4</td>
<td>26.9</td>
<td>22.4</td>
<td>16.8</td>
<td>177.5</td>
<td>102.0</td>
<td>32.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Balance with the U. S. (Bil US$)&nbsp;</td>
<td>15.0</td>
<td>14.4</td>
<td>14.1</td>
<td>12.6</td>
<td>12.5</td>
<td>144.3</td>
<td>114.2</td>
<td>80.3</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Year over year Percent Change</td>
<td>8.0</td>
<td>21.1</td>
<td>16.2</td>
<td>16.0</td>
<td>16.7</td>
<td>26.4</td>
<td>42.2</td>
<td>37.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Balance with Europe (Bil US$)&nbsp;</td>
<td>12.8</td>
<td>12.2</td>
<td>12.5</td>
<td>10.6</td>
<td>9.1</td>
<td>100.4</td>
<td>69.3</td>
<td>33.6</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp; Year over year Percent Change</td>
<td>24.6</td>
<td>77.0</td>
<td>46.9</td>
<td>59.6</td>
<td>77.0</td>
<td>45.0</td>
<td>105.9</td>
<td>82.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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China's trade surplus rose to $24,974 million in August. the second highest on record. The trade surplus with the United States was $15,003 million and that was an all time high. The total surplus and that with the U.S. are shown in [...]

China Wraps up a near Record Total Trade Surplus and Record Surpluses with the U.S. and Europe

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070911j.jpg" width="353">
French import growth is persistently outstripping exports. 
Exports ground to a halt in July as imports rose by 0.7%. Over three months, six months and twelve months, export growth is lagging import growth. Both flows however are showing accelerating and quite solid growth overall. Still there are exceptions. On the export side both capital goods and motor vehicle flows have come up lame over the past three months. Only a surge in consumer goods exports compensated for the weakness. For imports all major types of flows are still accelerating. France&#146;s erratic reading in July for exports does dove tail with the previously reported weakness in German export orders in July. We are still trying to assess what the prospect for growth is in the face of such uneven results. On the other hand the strength in French imports seems to be a powerful sign that French domestic demand is still strong and that its domestic sources of growth are underpinned. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
French Trade Trends for Goods
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="grey4">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="2">M/M%</td>
<td colspan="3">% SAAR</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey4">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>Jul-07</td>
<td>Jun-07</td>
<td>3-M</td>
<td>6-M</td>
<td>12-M</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Balance*</td>
<td>-&#128;&#128; 3,304.00</td>
<td>-&#128;&#128; 3,145.00</td>
<td>-&#128;&#128; 3,258.67</td>
<td>-&#128;&#128; 2,833.67</td>
<td>-&#128;&#128; 2,531.08</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey2">
<td class="firstcol">Exports</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">All Exports</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>9.6%</td>
<td>7.9%</td>
<td>5.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Capital Goods</td>
<td>-1.6%</td>
<td>4.5%</td>
<td>-11.3%</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Motor Vehicles</td>
<td>-1.2%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>-8.9%</td>
<td>0.6%</td>
<td>-2.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Goods</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>3.3%</td>
<td>32.4%</td>
<td>15.3%</td>
<td>9.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey2">
<td class="firstcol">Imports</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">All Imports</td>
<td>0.7%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>16.9%</td>
<td>16.5%</td>
<td>6.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Capital Goods</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>4.4%</td>
<td>36.3%</td>
<td>11.1%</td>
<td>6.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Motor Vehicles</td>
<td>0.5%</td>
<td>5.2%</td>
<td>18.2%</td>
<td>15.2%</td>
<td>12.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey3">
<td class="firstcol">Consumer Goods</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>14.2%</td>
<td>10.5%</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey1">
<td colspan="6">*Mil Euros; monthly or period average</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
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French import growth is persistently outstripping exports. Exports ground to a halt in July as imports rose by 0.7%. Over three months, six months and twelve months, export growth is lagging import growth. Both flows however are [...]

French Exports and Import Rebound…Imports Outpace

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070911i.jpg" width="353">
UK trade deficit widens in July as worsening trend stays in place. 
Trade flows in capital goods and autos are strengthening. But imports are generally holding their lead forcing the deficit deeper into red ink. Export and import flows generally have accelerated in the last 3 months and 6 months compared to earlier periods in terms of the sequential growth rates in the table below. The UK trade deficit has sunk to -7 billion sterling in July from -6.5 billions sterling in June. UK trade flows are just starting to get back into a normal swing after a huge surge in early 2006. 

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
UK Trade Trends for Goods
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="2">m/m%</td>
<td colspan="3">% SAAR</td>
</tr>
<tr class="even">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td>Jul-07</td>
<td>Jun-07</td>
<td>3M</td>
<td>6M</td>
<td>12M</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Balance*</td>
<td>-&pound;&pound; 7.07</td>
<td>-&pound;&pound; 6.54</td>
<td>-&pound;&pound; 6.76</td>
<td>-&pound;&pound; 6.93</td>
<td>-&pound;&pound; 6.78</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Exports</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">All Exports</td>
<td>2.6%</td>
<td>3.1%</td>
<td>48.6%</td>
<td>12.1%</td>
<td>1.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Capital Goods</td>
<td>7.3%</td>
<td>4.8%</td>
<td>89.7%</td>
<td>13.0%</td>
<td>-17.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Road Vehicles</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
<td>28.9%</td>
<td>11.8%</td>
<td>14.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Basic Materials</td>
<td>-5.1%</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>-2.5%</td>
<td>34.8%</td>
<td>13.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Food Feed Beverages &amp; Tobacco</td>
<td>1.2%</td>
<td>-4.5%</td>
<td>24.9%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>8.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Imports</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">All Improts</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>31.8%</td>
<td>14.2%</td>
<td>3.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Capital Goods</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td>3.2%</td>
<td>18.2%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>-17.5%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Road Vehicles</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td>51.0%</td>
<td>9.2%</td>
<td>20.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Basic Materials</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td>62.9%</td>
<td>76.7%</td>
<td>46.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Food Feed Beverages &amp; Tobacco</td>
<td>4.7%</td>
<td>-2.2%</td>
<td>7.5%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>10.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="6">*Bil Sterling; monthly or period average</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

UK trade deficit widens in July as worsening trend stays in place. Trade flows in capital goods and autos are strengthening. But imports are generally holding their lead forcing the deficit deeper into red ink. Export and import flows [...]

UK Exports and Imports Accelerate Again – Deficit Slips

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<img align="left" border="0" height="265" src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/070911h.jpg" width="353">
Japan sticks with the notion that it is still growing and that orders are generally expanding, but moving more or less sideways. Recent Japan macro data have been touch-and-go. In contrast the July core machinery orders reading is fairly strong. The rebound dominates the decline posted in June. Still, Japan&#146;s officials view this as a sideways movement. Orders -- even core orders -- that remove large contracts from ship building and electric power are still quite lumpy. The Yr/Yr growth of orders tends to dampen the impact of the lumps; it shows growth at a firm 8.4%. Orders related to domestic demand are growing at a pace of 5%. Foreign orders are still the source of strength, up by 12.6% Yr/Yr.

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead>
<tr>
Japan Machinery Orders
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="3">M/M %</td>
<td colspan="3">SAAR %</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">SA</td>
<td>Jul-07</td>
<td>Jun-07</td>
<td>May-07</td>
<td>3-Mos</td>
<td>6-Mos</td>
<td>12-Mos</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>-6.5%</td>
<td>5.8%</td>
<td>-6.5%</td>
<td>-2.5%</td>
<td>7.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Core Orders*</td>
<td>17.0%</td>
<td>-10.4%</td>
<td>5.9%</td>
<td>51.9%</td>
<td>6.1%</td>
<td>8.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Total Orders</td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
<td></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Foreign Demand</td>
<td>-10.8%</td>
<td>-5.9%</td>
<td>5.5%</td>
<td>-38.5%</td>
<td>-6.6%</td>
<td>12.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Domestic Demand</td>
<td>6.7%</td>
<td>-6.5%</td>
<td>5.9%</td>
<td>24.9%</td>
<td>-2.8%</td>
<td>5.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td colspan="5">* Excluding ships and electric power</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
<td>&nbsp;</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body>
</html>

Japan sticks with the notion that it is still growing and that orders are generally expanding, but moving more or less sideways. Recent Japan macro data have been touch-and-go. In contrast the July core machinery orders reading is [...]

Japan’s Core Machinery Orders Rebound

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

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Nonfarm payrolls increased 177,000 (1.2% y/y) during April after rising 185,000 in March, revised from 228,000, and 102,000 in February, revised from 117,000. Expectations had been for a 130,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The latest figure left the three-month average change at 155,000 in April, down from 232,000 in January.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% during April after unrevised increases of 0.3% in March and 0.2% in February. Earnings growth of 3.8% y/y was below the 5.9% high in March 2022.

The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, held m/m at an expected 4.2% in April, and compared to 4.1% in February and 4.0% in January. It reached a low of 3.4% in April 2023. The unemployment rate, including employees working part-time for economic reasons plus all marginally-attached workers, eased to 7.8% in April from 7.9% in March.

In the **establishment survey**, private-sector employment rose 167,000 (1.2% y/y) after a 170,000 March increase. Factory sector jobs edged 1,000 lower (-0.7% y/y) following a 3,000 gain. Construction sector employment increased 11,000 (1.7% y/y), after rising 7,000 in March.

Private service-producing sector employment increased 156,000 (1.4% y/y) in April after improving 161,000 in March. Increases varied greatly amongst service sector categories. Private education & health sector employment rose 70,000 (3.4% y/y) last month following a 74,000 March increase. Leisure & hospitality employment rose 24,000 (1.3% y/y) after a 38,000 gain. Trade, transportation & utilities rose 32,000 (0.9% y/y) in April following a 25,000 March increase. Professional & business services employment rose 17,000 (-0.1% y/y) following a 3,000 rise while temporary help employment rose 3,600 (-3.9% y/y) following a 2,700 decline. Financial activities employment improved 14,000 (1.2% y/y) after a 6,000 gain. The number of information sector jobs held steady (-0.4% y/y) last month after falling 2,000 in March.

Government sector payrolls rose 10,000 (1.3% y/y) last month after increasing 15,000 in March. The number of local government jobs increased 13,000 (1.4% y/y) following a 17,000 gain. State government employment rose 6,000 (1.8% y/y) following a 2,000 March increase but federal government payrolls fell 9,000 (-0.3% y/y), the third consecutive monthly decline.

Private-sector average hourly earnings rose 0.2% (3.8% y/y) in April after increasing 0.3% in March. Earnings in the goods-producing sector eased 0.1% (+4.0% y/y) following a 0.6% gain. Earnings in construction rose 0.3% (3.6% y/y), after a 0.2% rise but factory sector earnings declined 0.3% (+4.3% y/y) after surging 0.8% in March. In the private services-sector, earnings rose 0.2% (3.7% y/y) in April for the third straight month. Information sector pay increased 1.0% (5.2% y/y) last month after easing 0.1%, and financial activities earnings rose 0.5% (4.3% y/y) for the second straight month. Trade, transportation & utilities sector pay increased 0.4% (3.4% y/y) after 0.6%. Professional & business sector earnings increased 0.1% (4.4% y/y) after 0.2% in March. Leisure & hospitality earnings held steady (+3.8% y/y) following a 0.6% March increase.

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The length of the average workweek held steady at 34.3 hours in April. The workweek in the goods-producing sector eased to 39.8 hours from 40.0 hours. The construction sector average workweek eased to 39.0 hours from 39.3 hours while the factory sector workweek moved lower to 40.0 hours from 40.2. The average workweek in the private service sector held at 33.2 hours. Professional & business service hours fell to 36.3 hours from 36.4 while trade, transportation & utilities hours improved to 34.3 from 34.0 hours. Private education hours rose slightly to 32.8, but leisure & hospitality held steady at 25.5 hours.

In the **household survey**, the unemployment rate held at 4.2% in April as employment rose 436,000 and the size of the labor force increased 518,000. The labor force participation rate edged up to 62.6% last month from 62.5% in March. It remained below the high of 63.3% early in 2020. The rate for teenagers declined to 36.9%. For workers aged 20-24, the rate held steady at 72.1%, up from 71.8% six months earlier. For workers aged 25-54 the rate rose to 83.6%, a five-month high. For individuals 55 and over, the rate improved to 38.4% in April.

The employment/population ratio for all workers in April rose to 60.0%. It remained below the peak reading of 61.1% in February, 2020 just prior to the pandemic.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- Job growth spreads across most sectors.
- Earnings growth trend decelerates.
- Jobless rate holds steady.

U.S. Job Growth Is Firm in April but March Gain Is Lessened

Winnie Tapasanun

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Total factory orders rose a slightly less-than-expected 4.3% m/m in March after rises of 0.5% in February and 1.8% in January, data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. A 4.5% m/m March increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The March reading was the third successive monthly rise and the largest since July 2024. The year-on-year rate accelerated to 6.0% in March, the highest since November 2022, from 2.3% in February. Notably, orders for nondefense aircraft & parts soared 139.0% in March following a 7.4% drop in February and a 92.9% surge in January. Factory orders excluding defense rose 4.8% (5.9% y/y), the largest of three straight m/m/ rises, after a 0.4% February increase. Factory orders excluding the transportation sector fell 0.2% (+1.1% y/y), the first m/m fall since August, after rising 0.3% in February, January and December.

Durable goods orders jumped 9.2% (11.9% y/y) in March, the third consecutive m/m gain and the biggest since July 2024, on top of a 0.8% increase in February (matching +9.2% m/m in the advance report on April 24). The March jump reflected m/m orders increases of 27.1% (the largest m/m surge since July 2024; 31.2% y/y) in transportation equipment, 1.1% (4.9% y/y) in primary metals, 0.5% (-0.4% y/y) in furniture & related products, 0.1% (2.5% y/y) in fabricated metal products, and 0.1% (0.9% y/y) in machinery. To the downside, durable goods orders for computers & electronic products (-1.3%; +2.7% y/y) and electrical equipment, appliances & components (-1.0%; +4.2% y/y) declined m/m in March.

Nondurable goods orders, which equal nondurable goods shipments, fell 0.3% (+0.4% y/y) in March, the first m/m fall since September, after a 0.1% uptick in February. The March fall reflected m/m drops of 2.4% (-9.3% y/y) in petroleum & coal products and 0.9% (-1.2% y/y) in apparel. To the upside, the following nondurable goods shipments rose m/m in March: leather & allied products (1.5%; 8.6% y/y), beverage & tobacco products (0.7%; 5.8% y/y), paper products (0.6%; 2.3% y/y), printing (0.3%; 3.8% y/y), textile mills (0.3%; 0.8% y/y), chemical products (0.2%; 5.4% y/y), plastics & rubber products (0.2%; 0.4% y/y), food products (0.1%; 1.8% y/y), and textile products (0.1%; 2.1% y/y).

Total shipments slipped 0.1% (+2.0% y/y) in March, the first m/m easing since October, after a 0.7% increase in February. Excluding transportation, shipments were virtually unchanged m/m (+1.1% y/y) in March following six straight m/m gains. Shipments of durable goods industries inched up 0.1% (3.8% y/y) in March, the smallest of four consecutive m/m increases, after a 1.3% advance in February. This reflected m/m durable goods shipments rises of 1.2% (5.6% y/y) in primary metals, 0.9% (0.1% y/y) in furniture & related products, 0.8% (-0.2% y/y) in nonmetallic mineral products, 0.4% (0.0% y/y) in machinery, 0.3% (1.8% y/y) in fabricated metal products, 0.2% (4.5% y/y) in computers & electronic products, 0.2% (-2.1% y/y) in wood products, and 0.1% (3.0% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components. In contrast, durable goods shipments for transportation equipment (-0.5%; +7.3% y/y) and miscellaneous durable goods (-0.1%; +2.9% y/y) fell m/m in March following three successive m/m increases.

Unfilled orders rose 2.0% (2.3% y/y) in March, up for the eighth month in nine, after a 0.1% uptick in February. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders dipped 0.1% (+0.7% y/y) in March, the first m/m easing since May 2024, after holding steady in February. Backlogs of durable goods rose 2.0% (2.3% y/y) in March, reflecting m/m rises of 3.1% (3.1% y/y) in transportation equipment and 0.2% (2.4% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components.

Inventories edged up 0.1% (0.9% y/y) in March, the fifth straight m/m increase, after rising at the same pace in the prior two months. Excluding transportation, inventories were up 0.1% (0.5% y/y) in March, the fifth consecutive m/m rise. Durable goods inventories ticked up 0.1% (1.0% y/y) in March after holding steady in February and January; nondurable goods inventories edged up 0.1% (0.8% y/y), the fifth successive m/m increase.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

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- March manufacturers’ new orders +4.3% m/m; +6.0% y/y, highest since Nov. ’22.
- Durable goods orders (+9.2%) jump m/m, while nondurable goods orders (-0.3%) and shipments (-0.1%) decline m/m.
- Transportation equipt. orders +27.1% m/m, w/ a 139.0% m/m surge in nondefense aircraft & parts orders.
- Unfilled orders +2.0%, the eighth m/m rise in nine months.
- Inventories +0.1%, the fifth consecutive m/m increase.

U.S. Factory Orders Increase for the Third Straight Month in March

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The global manufacturing data showed broad weakening in April as conditions weakened across more than half of the contributing early reporters in the S&P survey of manufacturing. Of the 18 early reporting countries, more than half of them showed deceleration over six months and 12 months. Over three months, only 8 of 18 showed deterioration and that's about as good as it got in this report. In the current month, month-to-month changes showed more than half of the survey contributors showing weaker results than the month before. In the S&P framework, manufacturing improved month-to-month for the U.S.; however, looking at sequential averages for the U.S., U.K., European monetary union, Canada, and Japan, we see a steady weakening and results over 12 months, over six months versus 12 months, and for three months versus 6 months. The highly developed countries are not doing particularly well.

Asian economies are also showing slight deterioration but doing a little better than the developed countries in general.

Only five of the 18 reporting countries have queue percentile standings in their data back to January 2021 that are above their medians. Readings at or above the 50% mark are at or above the median standing. Canada is showing the weakest manufacturing result on record over this span, in terms of its queue percentile standing which is at 0 in the current month.

I showed the graphic for the Baltic dry goods index in this report rather than statistics on the manufacturing PMI data because the Baltic data, which reflect shipping volume for dry goods - that is excluding things like oil - is weak but it's only in the neighborhood where it's been for some time. There has been a great deal of talk about how tariffs may have impacted trade flows, expected trade flows, shipping, shipping rates, and the like. However, according to the Baltic dry goods index, there isn't much evidence that this is occurring right now and affecting the current data. That may still lie ahead but for now it's not baked in the cake.

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Globally Manufacturing Weakens

Andrew Cates

**China-US shipping activity** 
The economic fallout from escalating US-China trade tensions is becoming increasingly visible in the data. A clear example is the chart below, which highlights a sharp drop in vessel arrivals at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, along with a notable decline in ships waiting offshore. These trends point to a tangible weakening in bilateral trade flows, as the effects of tit-for-tat tariffs imposed by both countries begin to bite. Given the outsized role the US and China play in global commerce, this slowdown is likely to reverberate through global supply chains, weighing on trade volumes, dampening demand, and curbing economic growth worldwide.

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**GDP growth in Q1**
Data this week showed that the US economy contracted, albeit modestly, in Q1 even as the euro area recorded a modest expansion—an unusual divergence. The contraction in US GDP can be largely attributed to a sharp increase in imports, as firms rushed to front-load purchases ahead of anticipated tariff hikes. In addition, domestic demand was subdued, with weaker contributions from both consumer spending and government consumption. This decoupling between the US and euro area economies is particularly striking given the current global focus on the US dollar. While the euro area has shown unexpected signs of resilience, the US downturn raises important questions about its underlying momentum, especially as trade dynamics and policy uncertainty continue to cloud the outlook.

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**The US dollar versus yield differentials**
Chart 3 below illustrates a sharp breakdown in the correlation between the US-Germany 10-year yield differential and the EUR/USD exchange rate. Historically, the dollar has moved closely with interest rate spreads, as yield-seeking capital flowed into US assets. But since early 2025—and more acutely following the April tariff actions—the dollar has weakened markedly even as the yield spread has narrowed only modestly. This decoupling underscores a critical shift: capital markets are reacting not just to monetary policy, but to rising trade and geopolitical uncertainty. In other words, the exchange rate is now being driven as much by risk sentiment as by interest rate arbitrage.

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**The US economy’s structural outperformance and the dollar**
A second dynamic, captured in the next chart, reveals a tight correlation between the US real effective exchange rate and the potential GDP growth differential between the US and euro area over the past 50-60 years. This raises the question: has dollar strength (until recently) merely been a reflection of US growth leadership—or are capital inflows themselves helping to sustain this growth outperformance? In effect, the tail may be wagging the dog. Global investors have long allocated capital to the US, attracted by its macroeconomic resilience, technological leadership, and deep, liquid financial markets. The danger now is that the US trade war may disrupt this equilibrium. A sharp or sustained reduction in capital inflows could undermine growth, weaken the dollar, and trigger broader financial instability. Moreover, reversing this dynamic is not straightforward—barring a credible structural resurgence in European (or Asian) growth, the global investment landscape remains tilted toward the US.

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**US competitiveness versus Europe, China and Japan** 
The next chart below examines relative unit labour costs across major economies since 2011. The US and China have seen a broadly similar trajectory, with steady increases in relative cost structures, while the euro area has remained flat and Japan has seen dramatic improvement. This suggests that, from a cost competitiveness standpoint, the US is not uniquely disadvantaged vis-à-vis China. However, as we discuss further below, this parallel erosion of cost competitiveness is occurring at much higher nominal wage levels in the US, which blunts its ability to regain export share through tariff-related shifts alone. The trade war strategy—absent a corresponding improvement in productivity or structural reforms—risks imposing costs without delivering material competitiveness gains.

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**Average wages in selected developed and developing economies**
This point is reinforced by the final chart, which shows estimates for average monthly wages across countries in 2024. US labour remains much more expensive than in peer or emerging economies. So even if China’s costs rise in tandem with the US, the global supply chain has ample alternatives. 'China plus one' strategies are accelerating, and the US remains structurally misaligned with low-cost production hubs. Tariffs aimed at reshoring supply chains are unlikely to deliver sustained gains unless accompanied by deep supply-side reforms, and risk further disincentivizing foreign direct investment if global firms perceive US trade policy as erratic or punitive.

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Financial markets found a measure of calm this week, buoyed by some subtle shifts in tone from US policymakers. A softening in the administration’s rhetoric around trade tariffs coupled with a less confrontational stance toward Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, helped ease tensions that had roiled markets earlier in the month. Equities rebounded modestly, and volatility indicators edged lower, reflecting cautious optimism that the worst of the policy shocks may be behind us. But beneath the surface, significant downside risks persist. New shipping data point to a pronounced slowdown in US-China trade flows (chart 1), suggesting the damage from recent tariff escalations is already rippling through global supply chains. Meanwhile, incoming data for the US revealed an unexpected contraction in the economy in Q1 and further signs of weakness in the labour market (chart 2). The US dollar, in the meantime, while long supported by superior growth and yield differentials, has begun to decouple from traditional drivers (charts 3 and 4) suggesting growing pressure on capital flows. At the same time, structural imbalances are drawing renewed scrutiny: unit labour cost comparisons show the US steadily losing competitiveness (chart 5), while nominal wage disparities remain stark versus China and other Asian economies, further complicating any effort to restore trade balance without broader reforms (chart 6). In short, while markets may be drawing temporary comfort from a pause in tariff brinkmanship, the deeper economic and financial vulnerabilities exposed this month remain unresolved—and increasingly central to the global macro narrative.

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Charts of the Week: Tariff Truce, Tenuous Trust

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U.S. light vehicle sales dropped 2.9% (+6.5% y/y) to 17.31 million units (SAAR) in April after surging 10.8% to 17.82 million units in March. The retreat in April vehicle sales accompanied a 1.7% y/y rise in real disposable income through March, which compared to 2.0% growth last year.

Sales declines were broad-based last month. Light truck sales fell 1.3% (+9.9% y/y) during April to 14.34 million units (SAAR), after rising 12.4% in March. Purchases of domestically-made light trucks declined 1.2% (+11.9% y/y) to 11.02 million units, after jumping 12.5% in March. Sales of imported light trucks fell 1.8% (+4.4% y/y) to 3.32 million units, following an 11.6% March surge.

Trucks’ record 82.8% share of the light vehicle market last month compared to 81.5% in March and 80.3% in April of last year. The share averaged 80.3% during all of 2024 versus 53.3% ten years earlier.

Auto sales also declined last month, down 9.5% (-7.5%) to 2.97 million units (SAAR) following a 3.5% March rise. The decline reversed all of the increase over the prior two months. Purchases of domestically-produced cars fell 9.8% (-4.3% y/y) last month to 2.22 million units, after rising 3.8% in March. Sales of imported autos declined 9.6% (-15.7% y/y) to 0.75 million units, following a 2.5% March increase.

Imports' 23.5% share of the U.S. light vehicle market was little changed from 23.6% in March and compared to a May 2023 low of 22.9% and a high of 26.3% in November of 2023. Imports' share of the passenger car market held steady at 25.3% last month and compared to 27.7% in April of last year. It reached a high of 38.7% in September 2021. Imports' share of the light truck market eased to 23.2% last month after falling to 23.3% in March.

U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the I**NDUSTRY** database.

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- Light truck sales pull back, while auto sales tumble.
- Both domestic and imported sales decline.
- Imports' market share slips further.

Economy in Brief: September 2007

Jump to:

India's Industrial Sector Downshifts in July After Spring Acceleration

Japan’s Export and Import Growth Slow Then Rebound and Steady

JOLTS: Job Openings Unchanged, Hires Rate Improved (Slightly)

JOLTS: Job Openings Unchanged, Hires Rate Improved (Slightly)

China Wraps up a near Record Total Trade Surplus and Record Surpluses with the U.S. and Europe

French Exports and Import Rebound…Imports Outpace

UK Exports and Imports Accelerate Again – Deficit Slips

Japan’s Core Machinery Orders Rebound