Global| Sep 11 2007French Exports and Import Rebound…Imports Outpace
Summary
French import growth is persistently outstripping exports. Exports ground to a halt in July as imports rose by 0.7%. Over three months, six months and twelve months, export growth is lagging import growth. Both flows however are [...]
French import growth is persistently outstripping exports.
Exports ground to a halt in July as imports rose by 0.7%. Over three months, six months and twelve months, export growth is lagging import growth. Both flows however are showing accelerating and quite solid growth overall. Still there are exceptions. On the export side both capital goods and motor vehicle flows have come up lame over the past three months. Only a surge in consumer goods exports compensated for the weakness. For imports all major types of flows are still accelerating. France’s erratic reading in July for exports does dove tail with the previously reported weakness in German export orders in July. We are still trying to assess what the prospect for growth is in the face of such uneven results. On the other hand the strength in French imports seems to be a powerful sign that French domestic demand is still strong and that its domestic sources of growth are underpinned.
| M/M% | % SAAR | ||||
| Jul-07 | Jun-07 | 3-M | 6-M | 12-M | |
| Balance* | -€€ 3,304.00 | -€€ 3,145.00 | -€€ 3,258.67 | -€€ 2,833.67 | -€€ 2,531.08 |
| Exports | |||||
| All Exports | 0.0% | 4.6% | 9.6% | 7.9% | 5.1% |
| Capital Goods | -1.6% | 4.5% | -11.3% | 2.6% | 0.3% |
| Motor Vehicles | -1.2% | 3.2% | -8.9% | 0.6% | -2.5% |
| Consumer Goods | 4.6% | 3.3% | 32.4% | 15.3% | 9.5% |
| Imports | |||||
| All Imports | 0.7% | 4.0% | 16.9% | 16.5% | 6.1% |
| Capital Goods | 2.1% | 4.4% | 36.3% | 11.1% | 6.5% |
| Motor Vehicles | 0.5% | 5.2% | 18.2% | 15.2% | 12.8% |
| Consumer Goods | 0.1% | 4.0% | 14.2% | 10.5% | 4.8% |
| *Mil Euros; monthly or period average | |||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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