Tom Moeller

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
<br>

<span id="articletext">
<p></p>
<p><img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100402a.jpg" style="width: 312px; height: 265px;"><img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100402b.jpg" style="width: 312px; height: 265px;"></p>
<p>The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that, all-in-all,
labor market conditions firmed somewhat more-than-expected last month.
From the household survey, the unemployment rate held steady for the
third month at an expected 9.7%, down from the October high of 10.1%.
That stability owed to improved hiring. Employment rose 264,000 (-1.4%
y/y) for the third consecutive monthly gain. These increases follow
monthly declines of as much as 967,000 during the recession. In
addition, improved hiring is prompting an expansion of the labor force.
The 398,000 gain (-0.2% y/y) was the largest of three consecutive
monthly increases. Throughout 2009 the labor force contracted slightly.
The gain reflects a rise in the labor force participation rate to
64.9%, its third month of increase following steady declines last year.</p>
<p>The establishment survey also painted a picture of an improved
job market. To start, payrolls expanded 162,000. Though the gain was
slightly less-than-expected, the increase followed a lessened decline
of 14,000 in February. Also, a slight decline in January payrolls was
revised to a small increase. The real surprise, however, was that
Census workers contributed just 48,000 to last month's payroll gain and
that raised government hiring by 39,000 (-0.3% y/y). Therefore,
private-sector jobs expanded 123,000 (-2.1% y/y), the biggest of four
gains in the last five months.</p>
<p>The payroll gain reflected an 82,000 increase in
private-services. It was the fourth increase in the last five months
after severe weather dampened February hiring. Temporary jobs rose
40,200 (8.9% y/y) for the sixth consecutive monthly increase.
Construction jobs benefitted from the weather as well with a 15,000
increase, though it was the first gain since early-2007. Factory sector
employment also firmed and the 17,000 rise was the third consecutive
monthly increase.</p>
<p>The total workweek bounced back after the storm and earlier
numbers were upwardly-revised. The gain to 34.0 hours pulled the
workweek to its longest in twelve months. Combined with the gain in
employment, aggregate hours worked rose 0.7% and by 0.4% last quarter.</p>
<p>Average hourly earnings fell 0.1% and reversed the February
increase. It was the first monthly decline since 2003 and lowered the
y/y gain to 2.1%, its weakest since early-2004.</p>
</span>
<img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100402c.jpg" style="width: 312px; height: 265px;"><img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100402d.jpg" style="width: 312px; height: 265px;">
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><b>Employment:
000s</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>March</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>February</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>January</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>Y/Y</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>2009</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>2008</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>2007</b></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Payroll Employment</td>
<td>162</td>
<td>-14</td>
<td>14</td>
<td>-1.8%</td>
<td>-4.3%</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;Previous</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>-36</td>
<td>-26</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Manufacturing</td>
<td>17</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>-5.2%</td>
<td>-11.3%</td>
<td>-3.4%</td>
<td>-2.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Construction</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>-59</td>
<td>-60</td>
<td>-11.1%</td>
<td>-15.7%</td>
<td>-6.1%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Private
Service Producing</td>
<td>82</td>
<td>55</td>
<td>46</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>-3.4%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Government</td>
<td>39</td>
<td>-22</td>
<td>-2</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Average Weekly Hours</td>
<td>34.0</td>
<td>33.9</td>
<td>34.0</td>
<td>34.0(March '09)</td>
<td>33.1</td>
<td>33.6</td>
<td>33.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Average Hourly Earnings</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate</td>
<td>9.7%</td>
<td>9.7%</td>
<td>9.7%</td>
<td>8.6%(March '09)</td>
<td>9.3%</td>
<td>5.8%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that, all-in-all, labor market conditions firmed somewhat more-than-expected last month. From the household survey, the unemployment rate held steady for the third month at an expected 9.7%, [...]

U.S. Job Market Firms; Jobless Rate Is Steady And Payrolls Rise

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
<br>

<span id="articletext">
<p></p>
<p><img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100402a.jpg" style="width: 312px; height: 265px;"><img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100402b.jpg" style="width: 312px; height: 265px;"></p>
<p>The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that, all-in-all,
labor market conditions firmed somewhat more-than-expected last month.
From the household survey, the unemployment rate held steady for the
third month at an expected 9.7%, down from the October high of 10.1%.
That stability owed to improved hiring. Employment rose 264,000 (-1.4%
y/y) for the third consecutive monthly gain. These increases follow
monthly declines of as much as 967,000 during the recession. In
addition, improved hiring is prompting an expansion of the labor force.
The 398,000 gain (-0.2% y/y) was the largest of three consecutive
monthly increases. Throughout 2009 the labor force contracted slightly.
The gain reflects a rise in the labor force participation rate to
64.9%, its third month of increase following steady declines last year.</p>
<p>The establishment survey also painted a picture of an improved
job market. To start, payrolls expanded 162,000. Though the gain was
slightly less-than-expected, the increase followed a lessened decline
of 14,000 in February. Also, a slight decline in January payrolls was
revised to a small increase. The real surprise, however, was that
Census workers contributed just 48,000 to last month's payroll gain and
that raised government hiring by 39,000 (-0.3% y/y). Therefore,
private-sector jobs expanded 123,000 (-2.1% y/y), the biggest of four
gains in the last five months.</p>
<p>The payroll gain reflected an 82,000 increase in
private-services. It was the fourth increase in the last five months
after severe weather dampened February hiring. Temporary jobs rose
40,200 (8.9% y/y) for the sixth consecutive monthly increase.
Construction jobs benefitted from the weather as well with a 15,000
increase, though it was the first gain since early-2007. Factory sector
employment also firmed and the 17,000 rise was the third consecutive
monthly increase.</p>
<p>The total workweek bounced back after the storm and earlier
numbers were upwardly-revised. The gain to 34.0 hours pulled the
workweek to its longest in twelve months. Combined with the gain in
employment, aggregate hours worked rose 0.7% and by 0.4% last quarter.</p>
<p>Average hourly earnings fell 0.1% and reversed the February
increase. It was the first monthly decline since 2003 and lowered the
y/y gain to 2.1%, its weakest since early-2004.</p>
</span>
<img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100402c.jpg" style="width: 312px; height: 265px;"><img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100402d.jpg" style="width: 312px; height: 265px;">
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><b>Employment:
000s</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>March</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>February</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>January</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>Y/Y</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>2009</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>2008</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>2007</b></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Payroll Employment</td>
<td>162</td>
<td>-14</td>
<td>14</td>
<td>-1.8%</td>
<td>-4.3%</td>
<td>-0.6%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;Previous</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>-36</td>
<td>-26</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>--</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Manufacturing</td>
<td>17</td>
<td>6</td>
<td>22</td>
<td>-5.2%</td>
<td>-11.3%</td>
<td>-3.4%</td>
<td>-2.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Construction</td>
<td>15</td>
<td>-59</td>
<td>-60</td>
<td>-11.1%</td>
<td>-15.7%</td>
<td>-6.1%</td>
<td>-0.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Private
Service Producing</td>
<td>82</td>
<td>55</td>
<td>46</td>
<td>-1.0%</td>
<td>-3.4%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>1.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;Government</td>
<td>39</td>
<td>-22</td>
<td>-2</td>
<td>-0.3%</td>
<td>0.2%</td>
<td>1.3%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Average Weekly Hours</td>
<td>34.0</td>
<td>33.9</td>
<td>34.0</td>
<td>34.0(March '09)</td>
<td>33.1</td>
<td>33.6</td>
<td>33.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Average Hourly Earnings</td>
<td>-0.1%</td>
<td>0.1%</td>
<td>0.3%</td>
<td>2.1%</td>
<td>3.0%</td>
<td>3.8%</td>
<td>4.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Unemployment Rate</td>
<td>9.7%</td>
<td>9.7%</td>
<td>9.7%</td>
<td>8.6%(March '09)</td>
<td>9.3%</td>
<td>5.8%</td>
<td>4.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<span id="articletitle">Auto Sales In The Zone Come Back
To Earth</span><br>
<span id="byline">by <a href="/comment/Brusca.html">Robert
Brusca</a> April 2, 2010</span>
<span id="articletext">
<p></p>
<p><img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100402e.jpg" style="border: 0px solid ; width: 353px; height: 265px; float: left;" align="left"></p>
<p>Policymakers around the world have used the auto sector as a
lever to try and pry growth out of their respective economies. It may
seem strange that such a &#8216;big ticket item&#8217; would be uses so
universally, but that is partly the result of the type of crisis
governments and central banks have been fighting. Few buy cars without
bank financing. And bank financing had retracted sharply in the crisis.</p>
<p>Auto incentives ladened with tax breaks helped to get the
sector moving ahead. Now the incentives have been removed and sales are
falling back to economically supportable levels. In the e-Zone we can
see that while car sales are falling back retail sales have been
steadily cutting their losses. It&#8217;s not great but its progress.</p>
<p>France and Italy are the early auto sales (actually
registrations are recorded in Europe) reporters. They each show that
sales have advanced in March more than compensating for the sales drop
in February. Although the drop off in overall auto sales seems severe,
it is only sales getting back to normal after some very successful
incentives. The reduction in the rate of decline in retail sales
underscores that there is some progress on the part of the
Euro-consumer. France and Italy are showing that m/m sales can still
rise in this environment in which has the growth rate of Yr/Yr sales
dropping so sharply.</p>
</span>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th colspan="10" scope="col"> <b>Euro-Area
Car Registrations</b>
</th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;</td>
<td colspan="3">Mo/Mo %</td>
<td colspan="2">3-Mo Trend From</td>
<td colspan="2">6-Mo Trend From</td>
<td colspan="2">12-Mo Trend From</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">All Seas Adj</td>
<td>Mar-10</td>
<td>Feb-10</td>
<td>Jan-10</td>
<td>Mar-10</td>
<td>Feb-10</td>
<td>Mar-10</td>
<td>Feb-10</td>
<td>Mar-10</td>
<td>Feb-10</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;
France(&amp;WDA)</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>-0.2%</td>
<td>-17.0%</td>
<td>-50.8%</td>
<td>-46.2%</td>
<td>6.2%</td>
<td>23.6%</td>
<td>12.7%</td>
<td>18.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Italy</td>
<td>5.1%</td>
<td>-2.9%</td>
<td>-2.5%</td>
<td>-2.0%</td>
<td>-19.2%</td>
<td>11.6%</td>
<td>7.1%</td>
<td>12.2%</td>
<td>21.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="grey2">
<td class="firstcol">base Month of Calc</td>
<td>Feb-10</td>
<td>Jan-10</td>
<td>Dec-09</td>
<td>Dec-09</td>
<td>Nov-09</td>
<td>Sep-09</td>
<td>Aug-09</td>
<td>Mar-09</td>
<td>Feb-09</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<span id="articletitle">U.S. Vehicle Sales Recover</span><br>
<span id="byline">by <a href="/comment/Moeller.html">Tom
Moeller</a> April 2, 2010</span>
<span id="articletext">
<p></p>
<p>
<img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100402f.jpg" style="width: 353px; height: 265px;" align="right">
Making up
sales which earlier had suffered from "special" factors, <b>U.S.
unit sales of&nbsp; light vehicles</b> during March jumped to
11.78M units (SAAR) from 10.38M in February. The latest was the highest
level since last August when aggressive sales promotions lifted sales.
March sales fell slightly short of Consensus expectations for 12.0M.
(Seasonal adjustment of these figures is provided by the U.S. Bureau of
Economic Analysis).</p>
<p>Sales of <b>domestically&nbsp; produced
<img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100402g.jpg" style="width: 353px; height: 265px;" align="right">vehicles</b>
jumped 14.0% last month to 8.79M units (28.5% y/y)
from 7.71M in February. Sales of fuel efficient cars rose 11.8% for the
month (28.8% y/y) while light truck sales also posted a solid 16.0% m/m
gain (28.3% y/y). <b>Imported light vehicle</b> sales
recovered 12.0% (3.7% y/y) after a sharp February decline, due in part
to the recall of some Toyota models. With a 5.9% gain, sales of
imported autos recovered all of the February loss while light truck
sales were stronger with a m/m gain of 24.9%, though just 1.7% y/y.</p>
<p>Overall,<b> import's share </b>of the U.S.
light vehicle market during February fell to 25.4%. The share has been
declining erratically from its high of 30.5% in February '09 and from
27.6% during all of last year. (Imported vehicles are those produced
outside the United States.) Imports' share of the U.S. car market fell
m/m to 31.8% and that was below 34.8% during 2009. Imports' share of
the light truck market improved to 18.7% but remained below the 19.6%
last year.</p>
<p>The U.S. vehicle sales figures can be
found in Haver's<b> USECON </b>database.&nbsp;</p>
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><a href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/USECON/@ED/@ED09/@ED0901/@ED0901.HTM%22" style="color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><b>Light Vehicle Sales
(SAAR, Mil. Units)</b></a></th>
<th scope="col"><b>March</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>February</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>January</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>March Y/Y</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>2009</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>2008</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>2007</b></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Total</td>
<td>11.78</td>
<td>10.38</td>
<td>10.78</td>
<td>21.2%</td>
<td>10.37</td>
<td>13.22</td>
<td>16.16</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Autos</td>
<td>6.04</td>
<td>5.49</td>
<td>5.70</td>
<td>20.1</td>
<td>5.46</td>
<td>6.76</td>
<td>7.58</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Domestic</td>
<td>4.12</td>
<td>3.68</td>
<td>3.78</td>
<td>28.8</td>
<td>3.56</td>
<td>4.44</td>
<td>5.06</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Imported</td>
<td>1.92</td>
<td>1.81</td>
<td>1.92</td>
<td>4.8</td>
<td>1.90</td>
<td>2.32</td>
<td>2.52</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp; Light Trucks</td>
<td>5.74</td>
<td>4.88</td>
<td>5.08</td>
<td>22.4</td>
<td>4.91</td>
<td>6.46</td>
<td>8.60</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Domestic</td>
<td>4.67</td>
<td>4.03</td>
<td>4.11</td>
<td>28.3</td>
<td>3.95</td>
<td>5.28</td>
<td>7.10</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;
Imported</td>
<td>1.07</td>
<td>0.86</td>
<td>0.97</td>
<td>1.7</td>
<td>0.96</td>
<td>1.18</td>
<td>1.47</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</span>
</body></html>

U.S. Job Market Firms; JoblessRate Is Steady And Payrolls Rise

Robert Brusca

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
<br>

<span id="articletext">
<p></p>
<p><img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100401i.jpg" style="border: 0px solid ; width: 353px; height: 265px; float: left;" align="left"></p>
<p>In terms of its broad trends German retail sales are beginning
to do a bit better. The three-month rate of growth is better than the
six-month rate of growth which exceeds the twelve month rate of growth.
So the sequential growth rates for German nominal sales are turning
higher.</p>
<p>Still January and February are not very strong months for
German consumers. Retail sales ex autos were flat in February and off
by 0.4% in January. Inflation-adjusted sales are off for two months
running. The sequential growth rates for Real ex-auto retail sales are
not as bright as for nominal sales either. Still they are not bad
registering acceleration for 12-months to six months and growth over
three months even if a bit slower than it was over six months. But at
this rate we&#8217;ll have to see if the trend holds up.</p>
<p>In the quarter-to-date German retail sales are falling for all
but two categories. Food beverage and tobacco sales are up in the
quarter-to-date and car registrations are flat. Still nominal retail
sales are falling at 0.2% annual rate and real ex auto retail sales are
falling at a 1.6% pace.</p>
<p>As Europe&#8217;s biggest economy Germans are doing very little to
provide the domestic demand to boost the euro-zone into recovery.
Instead Germany&#8217;s tactic is to sit back and let its export growth
benefit from increases in domestic demand elsewhere and let that pull
Germany into an export-led recovery. It&#8217;s not a very leading role for
Europe&#8217;s largest economy and it goes a long way to explain why Europe
simply lacks economic dynamism.<b></b></p>
</span>

<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr><th colspan="9" scope="col">German Real and Nominal Retail Sales </th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Nominal</td>
<td>Feb-10</td>
<td>Jan-10</td>
<td>Dec-09</td>
<td>3-MO</td>
<td>6-MO</td>
<td>12-MO</td>
<td>YrAgo</td>
<td>QTR<br>
Saar</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Retaill Ex auto</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td style="color: red;">-0.4%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
<td>2.9%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td style="color: red;">-0.5%</td>
<td>-3.5%</td>
<td style="color: red;">-0.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">MV and Parts</td>
<td style="color: red;">-0.4%</td>
<td style="color: red;">-0.5%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td style="color: red;">-0.9%</td>
<td>-3.3%</td>
<td style="color: red;">-1.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Food Bev &amp;
Tobacco</td>
<td style="color: red;">-2.3%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>2.2%</td>
<td style="color: red;">-0.4%</td>
<td style="color: red;">-7.1%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
<td>-2.5%</td>
<td>1.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Clothing footwear</td>
<td>1.6%</td>
<td style="color: red;">-3.1%</td>
<td>5.3%</td>
<td>15.1%</td>
<td>10.3%</td>
<td style="color: red;">-1.2%</td>
<td>-4.5%</td>
<td>-11.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">car registrations
(units)</td>
<td>1.8%</td>
<td>2.7%</td>
<td style="color: red;">-16.7%</td>
<td style="color: red;">-42.6%</td>
<td style="color: red;">-43.3%</td>
<td style="color: red;">-29.9%</td>
<td>28.5%</td>
<td>0.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td colspan="9" class="firstcol">Real</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">&nbsp;Retail
Ex auto</td>
<td style="color: red;">-0.4%</td>
<td style="color: red;">-0.5%</td>
<td>1.0%</td>
<td>0.4%</td>
<td>0.8%</td>
<td style="color: red;">-0.9%</td>
<td style="color: red;">-3.3%</td>
<td style="color: red;">-1.6%</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

In terms of its broad trends German retail sales are beginning to do a bit better. The three-month rate of growth is better than the six-month rate of growth which exceeds the twelve month rate of growth. So the sequential growth [...]

German Retail Sales Back-Track In February But Still Show An Uptrend Can It Last?

<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.01 Transitional//EN">
<html><head>
<style>
.odd{
background-color:#edf5ff;
}
.even{
background-color:#dde5ef;
}
.grey1{
background-color:#f0f0f0;
}
.grey2{
background-color:#e2e2e2;
}
.grey3{
background-color:#d4d4d4;
}
.grey4{
background-color:#c6c6c6;
}
.grey5{
background-color:#b8b8b8;
}
</style>
</head>
<body>
<br>

<span id="articletext">
<p></p>
<p><img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100401e.jpg" style="border: 0px solid ; width: 353px; height: 265px; float: left;" align="left"></p>
<p>Labor market improvement is continuing. Last week initial
claims for jobless insurance figure fell 6,000 to 439,000 which was the
lowest level since August 2008. The earlier week's level was revised up
slightly and the latest is down from the recession peak of 651,000
reached in March of 2009. Last week's level roughly matched Consensus
expectations for 440,000 new claims while the four-week moving average
of initial claims fell to another cycle-low 447,250.</p>
<p>In addition, continuing claims for unemployment insurance
during the latest week also fell to a cycle low and are down by
one-third since late-June. The overall decline is a function of the
improved job market but also reflects the exhaustion of 26 weeks of
unemployment benefits. Continuing claims provide an indication of
workers' ability to find employment. The four-week average of
continuing claims fell to a cycle low of 4.680 mil. This series dates
back to 1966.</p>
<p>Extended benefits for unemployment insurance dropped sharply
to another cycle low of 136,990. They were down by two-thirds from a
peak of 597,688 reached in November.Each state administers a separate
unemployment insurance program within guidelines established by Federal
law. Benefit amounts and the length of time benefits are received are
determined by state law. For example, in Michigan and New York, an
additional 73 weeks of benefits are available and in California, an
additional 79 weeks are available.</p>
<p>The insured unemployment rate held steady at 3.6% during the
prior week. The rate reached a high of 4.9% during May. During the last
ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the level of the
insured unemployment rate and the overall rate of unemployment
published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.</p>
<p>The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending
March 12 were in Alaska (7.2% percent), Oregon (6.1), Pennsylvania
(6.0), Wisconsin (5.9), Michigan (5.5), Nevada (5.5), North Carolina
(5.1) and Connecticut (5.0). The lowest insured unemployment rates were
in Virginia (2.0), Texas (2.3), Georgia (3.0), Florida (3.1), Wyoming
(3.5), Maryland (3.6), Ohio (3.7), New York (4.0) and Maine (4.3).
These data are not seasonally adjusted but the overall insured
unemployment rate is.</p>
</span>
<img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100401f.jpg" style="width: 312px; height: 265px;"><img alt src="https://haver-commentaries.s3.eu-west-1.amazonaws.com/comments/100401g.jpg" style="width: 312px; height: 265px;">&gt;
<table border="0" cellspacing="0" width="100%">
<colgroup><col><col><col><col><col><col><col></colgroup>
<thead><tr>
<th scope="col" class="firstcol"><b><a ;="" href="http://www.haverselect.com/dlx/WEEKLY/@W5/@W507/@W507.HTM">Unemployment Insurance (000s)</a></b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>3/26/10</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>3/19/10</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>3/12/10</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>Y/Y</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>2009</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>2008</b></th>
<th scope="col"><b>2007</b></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Initial Claims</td>
<td>439</td>
<td>445</td>
<td>454</td>
<td>-32.6%</td>
<td>572</td>
<td>419</td>
<td>321</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td class="firstcol">Continuing Claims</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>4,662</td>
<td>4,668</td>
<td>-19.3%</td>
<td>5,809</td>
<td>3,340</td>
<td>2,549</td>
</tr>
<tr class="odd">
<td class="firstcol">Insured Unemployment Rate (%)</td>
<td>--</td>
<td>3.6</td>
<td>3.6</td>
<td>4.3 (3/2009)</td>
<td>4.4</td>
<td>2.5</td>
<td>1.9</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
</body></html>

Labor market improvement is continuing. Last week initial claims for jobless insurance figure fell 6,000 to 439,000 which was the lowest level since August 2008. The earlier week's level was revised up slightly and the latest is down [...]

U.S. Initial Claims For Jobless Insurance Fall To Lowest Since 2008

USD/EUR exchange rate uncoupling from interest rate differential

Widespread downgrading of 2025 GDP outlook

Trade and fiscal policy uncertainty has exploded with the new administration

Much lower US electricity costs gives it a competitive advantage

Wage growth slowing in the US and Euro area; elevated and sticky in the UK

Stagflation-lite: Blue Chip forecasts below-trend growth and elevated inflation

US policy gyrations boosting policy uncertainty worldwide

Expected tariff hikes have boosted inflation expectations

US and Japan ended 2024 on solid ground in contrast to Europe

US economy expected to outperform other major economies in 2025

Only modest evidence of AI-related surge in US productivity growth

Previous Trump tariffs fading. A boost from new tariffs ahead?

Heavy US manufacturing states underperforming while Sun Belt states outperforming

Rising long-term yields a global phenomenon

US financial market concerns shifting from growth to inflation

Economic activity is picking up in the US but remains lackluster abroad

Policy uncertainty has surged since the US national elections.

Recent turnaround in US economic surprises leading to increases in rate-cut expectations

The outlook has brightened in the US, while it has dimmed for other major economies

Headline US PCE inflation elevated by sticky services prices

US and global equity prices have recently diverged

US leading global upturn in economic surprises

Blue Chip forecasters look for further significant monetary easing apart from Japan

Recent rise in global supply chain pressures could augur a pickup in global inflation pressures

Underperforming German economy generating increased policy uncertainty relative to Europe and the US

Our global data offering is unparalleled in terms of coverage, quality, and organization. We offer 290+ databases from 2500 government and private sources, a wealth of key survey and forecast data covering the world’s economies, and a robust offering of archive databases that drive machine learning for big data applications.

Optimized for precision analytics, our data is seamlessly integrated with Microsoft Office and all leading statistical packages through our DLX® software and platform independent HaverView™ website. We further offer direct database feeds, client server or cloud-based delivery, and RESTful API.


Privacy Policy

Disclaimer

Contact us

A premier time series data platform for the global strategy, research, and quant communities. 

New York

London

Singapore

Tokyo

Economy in Brief

Viewpoints

Contact Us

Our Data

Our Products

What We Do

Our Authors

About Us

Data News

Resources

Release Calendars

Training Center

Webinars

Newsletters

Download Software

For Clients

Live Updates

250502A5.jpg

250502B5.jpg

Nonfarm payrolls increased 177,000 (1.2% y/y) during April after rising 185,000 in March, revised from 228,000, and 102,000 in February, revised from 117,000. Expectations had been for a 130,000 rise in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The latest figure left the three-month average change at 155,000 in April, down from 232,000 in January.

Average hourly earnings rose 0.2% during April after unrevised increases of 0.3% in March and 0.2% in February. Earnings growth of 3.8% y/y was below the 5.9% high in March 2022.

The unemployment rate, measured in the household survey, held m/m at an expected 4.2% in April, and compared to 4.1% in February and 4.0% in January. It reached a low of 3.4% in April 2023. The unemployment rate, including employees working part-time for economic reasons plus all marginally-attached workers, eased to 7.8% in April from 7.9% in March.

In the **establishment survey**, private-sector employment rose 167,000 (1.2% y/y) after a 170,000 March increase. Factory sector jobs edged 1,000 lower (-0.7% y/y) following a 3,000 gain. Construction sector employment increased 11,000 (1.7% y/y), after rising 7,000 in March.

Private service-producing sector employment increased 156,000 (1.4% y/y) in April after improving 161,000 in March. Increases varied greatly amongst service sector categories. Private education & health sector employment rose 70,000 (3.4% y/y) last month following a 74,000 March increase. Leisure & hospitality employment rose 24,000 (1.3% y/y) after a 38,000 gain. Trade, transportation & utilities rose 32,000 (0.9% y/y) in April following a 25,000 March increase. Professional & business services employment rose 17,000 (-0.1% y/y) following a 3,000 rise while temporary help employment rose 3,600 (-3.9% y/y) following a 2,700 decline. Financial activities employment improved 14,000 (1.2% y/y) after a 6,000 gain. The number of information sector jobs held steady (-0.4% y/y) last month after falling 2,000 in March.

Government sector payrolls rose 10,000 (1.3% y/y) last month after increasing 15,000 in March. The number of local government jobs increased 13,000 (1.4% y/y) following a 17,000 gain. State government employment rose 6,000 (1.8% y/y) following a 2,000 March increase but federal government payrolls fell 9,000 (-0.3% y/y), the third consecutive monthly decline.

Private-sector average hourly earnings rose 0.2% (3.8% y/y) in April after increasing 0.3% in March. Earnings in the goods-producing sector eased 0.1% (+4.0% y/y) following a 0.6% gain. Earnings in construction rose 0.3% (3.6% y/y), after a 0.2% rise but factory sector earnings declined 0.3% (+4.3% y/y) after surging 0.8% in March. In the private services-sector, earnings rose 0.2% (3.7% y/y) in April for the third straight month. Information sector pay increased 1.0% (5.2% y/y) last month after easing 0.1%, and financial activities earnings rose 0.5% (4.3% y/y) for the second straight month. Trade, transportation & utilities sector pay increased 0.4% (3.4% y/y) after 0.6%. Professional & business sector earnings increased 0.1% (4.4% y/y) after 0.2% in March. Leisure & hospitality earnings held steady (+3.8% y/y) following a 0.6% March increase.

250502C5.jpg

250502D5.jpg

The length of the average workweek held steady at 34.3 hours in April. The workweek in the goods-producing sector eased to 39.8 hours from 40.0 hours. The construction sector average workweek eased to 39.0 hours from 39.3 hours while the factory sector workweek moved lower to 40.0 hours from 40.2. The average workweek in the private service sector held at 33.2 hours. Professional & business service hours fell to 36.3 hours from 36.4 while trade, transportation & utilities hours improved to 34.3 from 34.0 hours. Private education hours rose slightly to 32.8, but leisure & hospitality held steady at 25.5 hours.

In the **household survey**, the unemployment rate held at 4.2% in April as employment rose 436,000 and the size of the labor force increased 518,000. The labor force participation rate edged up to 62.6% last month from 62.5% in March. It remained below the high of 63.3% early in 2020. The rate for teenagers declined to 36.9%. For workers aged 20-24, the rate held steady at 72.1%, up from 71.8% six months earlier. For workers aged 25-54 the rate rose to 83.6%, a five-month high. For individuals 55 and over, the rate improved to 38.4% in April.

The employment/population ratio for all workers in April rose to 60.0%. It remained below the peak reading of 61.1% in February, 2020 just prior to the pandemic.

The employment and earnings data are collected from surveys taken each month during the week containing the 12th day of the month. The labor market data are contained in Haver's **USECON** database. Detailed figures are in the **EMPL** and **LABOR** databases. The expectations figures are in the **AS1REPNA** database.

250502X5.jpg

250502F5.jpg

- Job growth spreads across most sectors.
- Earnings growth trend decelerates.
- Jobless rate holds steady.

U.S. Job Growth Is Firm in April but March Gain Is Lessened

Winnie Tapasanun

250502F32.jpg

250502G32.jpg

Total factory orders rose a slightly less-than-expected 4.3% m/m in March after rises of 0.5% in February and 1.8% in January, data from the U.S. Census Bureau showed. A 4.5% m/m March increase had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The March reading was the third successive monthly rise and the largest since July 2024. The year-on-year rate accelerated to 6.0% in March, the highest since November 2022, from 2.3% in February. Notably, orders for nondefense aircraft & parts soared 139.0% in March following a 7.4% drop in February and a 92.9% surge in January. Factory orders excluding defense rose 4.8% (5.9% y/y), the largest of three straight m/m/ rises, after a 0.4% February increase. Factory orders excluding the transportation sector fell 0.2% (+1.1% y/y), the first m/m fall since August, after rising 0.3% in February, January and December.

Durable goods orders jumped 9.2% (11.9% y/y) in March, the third consecutive m/m gain and the biggest since July 2024, on top of a 0.8% increase in February (matching +9.2% m/m in the advance report on April 24). The March jump reflected m/m orders increases of 27.1% (the largest m/m surge since July 2024; 31.2% y/y) in transportation equipment, 1.1% (4.9% y/y) in primary metals, 0.5% (-0.4% y/y) in furniture & related products, 0.1% (2.5% y/y) in fabricated metal products, and 0.1% (0.9% y/y) in machinery. To the downside, durable goods orders for computers & electronic products (-1.3%; +2.7% y/y) and electrical equipment, appliances & components (-1.0%; +4.2% y/y) declined m/m in March.

Nondurable goods orders, which equal nondurable goods shipments, fell 0.3% (+0.4% y/y) in March, the first m/m fall since September, after a 0.1% uptick in February. The March fall reflected m/m drops of 2.4% (-9.3% y/y) in petroleum & coal products and 0.9% (-1.2% y/y) in apparel. To the upside, the following nondurable goods shipments rose m/m in March: leather & allied products (1.5%; 8.6% y/y), beverage & tobacco products (0.7%; 5.8% y/y), paper products (0.6%; 2.3% y/y), printing (0.3%; 3.8% y/y), textile mills (0.3%; 0.8% y/y), chemical products (0.2%; 5.4% y/y), plastics & rubber products (0.2%; 0.4% y/y), food products (0.1%; 1.8% y/y), and textile products (0.1%; 2.1% y/y).

Total shipments slipped 0.1% (+2.0% y/y) in March, the first m/m easing since October, after a 0.7% increase in February. Excluding transportation, shipments were virtually unchanged m/m (+1.1% y/y) in March following six straight m/m gains. Shipments of durable goods industries inched up 0.1% (3.8% y/y) in March, the smallest of four consecutive m/m increases, after a 1.3% advance in February. This reflected m/m durable goods shipments rises of 1.2% (5.6% y/y) in primary metals, 0.9% (0.1% y/y) in furniture & related products, 0.8% (-0.2% y/y) in nonmetallic mineral products, 0.4% (0.0% y/y) in machinery, 0.3% (1.8% y/y) in fabricated metal products, 0.2% (4.5% y/y) in computers & electronic products, 0.2% (-2.1% y/y) in wood products, and 0.1% (3.0% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components. In contrast, durable goods shipments for transportation equipment (-0.5%; +7.3% y/y) and miscellaneous durable goods (-0.1%; +2.9% y/y) fell m/m in March following three successive m/m increases.

Unfilled orders rose 2.0% (2.3% y/y) in March, up for the eighth month in nine, after a 0.1% uptick in February. Excluding transportation, unfilled orders dipped 0.1% (+0.7% y/y) in March, the first m/m easing since May 2024, after holding steady in February. Backlogs of durable goods rose 2.0% (2.3% y/y) in March, reflecting m/m rises of 3.1% (3.1% y/y) in transportation equipment and 0.2% (2.4% y/y) in electrical equipment, appliances & components.

Inventories edged up 0.1% (0.9% y/y) in March, the fifth straight m/m increase, after rising at the same pace in the prior two months. Excluding transportation, inventories were up 0.1% (0.5% y/y) in March, the fifth consecutive m/m rise. Durable goods inventories ticked up 0.1% (1.0% y/y) in March after holding steady in February and January; nondurable goods inventories edged up 0.1% (0.8% y/y), the fifth successive m/m increase.

The factory sector data are available in Haver’s **USECON** database. The Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the **AS1REPNA** database.

250502H32.jpg

250502I32.jpg

- March manufacturers’ new orders +4.3% m/m; +6.0% y/y, highest since Nov. ’22.
- Durable goods orders (+9.2%) jump m/m, while nondurable goods orders (-0.3%) and shipments (-0.1%) decline m/m.
- Transportation equipt. orders +27.1% m/m, w/ a 139.0% m/m surge in nondefense aircraft & parts orders.
- Unfilled orders +2.0%, the eighth m/m rise in nine months.
- Inventories +0.1%, the fifth consecutive m/m increase.

U.S. Factory Orders Increase for the Third Straight Month in March

250502E.jpg

The global manufacturing data showed broad weakening in April as conditions weakened across more than half of the contributing early reporters in the S&P survey of manufacturing. Of the 18 early reporting countries, more than half of them showed deceleration over six months and 12 months. Over three months, only 8 of 18 showed deterioration and that's about as good as it got in this report. In the current month, month-to-month changes showed more than half of the survey contributors showing weaker results than the month before. In the S&P framework, manufacturing improved month-to-month for the U.S.; however, looking at sequential averages for the U.S., U.K., European monetary union, Canada, and Japan, we see a steady weakening and results over 12 months, over six months versus 12 months, and for three months versus 6 months. The highly developed countries are not doing particularly well.

Asian economies are also showing slight deterioration but doing a little better than the developed countries in general.

Only five of the 18 reporting countries have queue percentile standings in their data back to January 2021 that are above their medians. Readings at or above the 50% mark are at or above the median standing. Canada is showing the weakest manufacturing result on record over this span, in terms of its queue percentile standing which is at 0 in the current month.

I showed the graphic for the Baltic dry goods index in this report rather than statistics on the manufacturing PMI data because the Baltic data, which reflect shipping volume for dry goods - that is excluding things like oil - is weak but it's only in the neighborhood where it's been for some time. There has been a great deal of talk about how tariffs may have impacted trade flows, expected trade flows, shipping, shipping rates, and the like. However, according to the Baltic dry goods index, there isn't much evidence that this is occurring right now and affecting the current data. That may still lie ahead but for now it's not baked in the cake.

250502.jpg

Globally Manufacturing Weakens

Andrew Cates

**China-US shipping activity** 
The economic fallout from escalating US-China trade tensions is becoming increasingly visible in the data. A clear example is the chart below, which highlights a sharp drop in vessel arrivals at the ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach, along with a notable decline in ships waiting offshore. These trends point to a tangible weakening in bilateral trade flows, as the effects of tit-for-tat tariffs imposed by both countries begin to bite. Given the outsized role the US and China play in global commerce, this slowdown is likely to reverberate through global supply chains, weighing on trade volumes, dampening demand, and curbing economic growth worldwide.

250501Z1.jpg

**GDP growth in Q1**
Data this week showed that the US economy contracted, albeit modestly, in Q1 even as the euro area recorded a modest expansion—an unusual divergence. The contraction in US GDP can be largely attributed to a sharp increase in imports, as firms rushed to front-load purchases ahead of anticipated tariff hikes. In addition, domestic demand was subdued, with weaker contributions from both consumer spending and government consumption. This decoupling between the US and euro area economies is particularly striking given the current global focus on the US dollar. While the euro area has shown unexpected signs of resilience, the US downturn raises important questions about its underlying momentum, especially as trade dynamics and policy uncertainty continue to cloud the outlook.

250501Z2.jpg

**The US dollar versus yield differentials**
Chart 3 below illustrates a sharp breakdown in the correlation between the US-Germany 10-year yield differential and the EUR/USD exchange rate. Historically, the dollar has moved closely with interest rate spreads, as yield-seeking capital flowed into US assets. But since early 2025—and more acutely following the April tariff actions—the dollar has weakened markedly even as the yield spread has narrowed only modestly. This decoupling underscores a critical shift: capital markets are reacting not just to monetary policy, but to rising trade and geopolitical uncertainty. In other words, the exchange rate is now being driven as much by risk sentiment as by interest rate arbitrage.

250501Z3.jpg

**The US economy’s structural outperformance and the dollar**
A second dynamic, captured in the next chart, reveals a tight correlation between the US real effective exchange rate and the potential GDP growth differential between the US and euro area over the past 50-60 years. This raises the question: has dollar strength (until recently) merely been a reflection of US growth leadership—or are capital inflows themselves helping to sustain this growth outperformance? In effect, the tail may be wagging the dog. Global investors have long allocated capital to the US, attracted by its macroeconomic resilience, technological leadership, and deep, liquid financial markets. The danger now is that the US trade war may disrupt this equilibrium. A sharp or sustained reduction in capital inflows could undermine growth, weaken the dollar, and trigger broader financial instability. Moreover, reversing this dynamic is not straightforward—barring a credible structural resurgence in European (or Asian) growth, the global investment landscape remains tilted toward the US.

250501Z4.jpg

**US competitiveness versus Europe, China and Japan** 
The next chart below examines relative unit labour costs across major economies since 2011. The US and China have seen a broadly similar trajectory, with steady increases in relative cost structures, while the euro area has remained flat and Japan has seen dramatic improvement. This suggests that, from a cost competitiveness standpoint, the US is not uniquely disadvantaged vis-à-vis China. However, as we discuss further below, this parallel erosion of cost competitiveness is occurring at much higher nominal wage levels in the US, which blunts its ability to regain export share through tariff-related shifts alone. The trade war strategy—absent a corresponding improvement in productivity or structural reforms—risks imposing costs without delivering material competitiveness gains.

250501Z5.jpg

**Average wages in selected developed and developing economies**
This point is reinforced by the final chart, which shows estimates for average monthly wages across countries in 2024. US labour remains much more expensive than in peer or emerging economies. So even if China’s costs rise in tandem with the US, the global supply chain has ample alternatives. 'China plus one' strategies are accelerating, and the US remains structurally misaligned with low-cost production hubs. Tariffs aimed at reshoring supply chains are unlikely to deliver sustained gains unless accompanied by deep supply-side reforms, and risk further disincentivizing foreign direct investment if global firms perceive US trade policy as erratic or punitive.

250501Z6.jpg

Financial markets found a measure of calm this week, buoyed by some subtle shifts in tone from US policymakers. A softening in the administration’s rhetoric around trade tariffs coupled with a less confrontational stance toward Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, helped ease tensions that had roiled markets earlier in the month. Equities rebounded modestly, and volatility indicators edged lower, reflecting cautious optimism that the worst of the policy shocks may be behind us. But beneath the surface, significant downside risks persist. New shipping data point to a pronounced slowdown in US-China trade flows (chart 1), suggesting the damage from recent tariff escalations is already rippling through global supply chains. Meanwhile, incoming data for the US revealed an unexpected contraction in the economy in Q1 and further signs of weakness in the labour market (chart 2). The US dollar, in the meantime, while long supported by superior growth and yield differentials, has begun to decouple from traditional drivers (charts 3 and 4) suggesting growing pressure on capital flows. At the same time, structural imbalances are drawing renewed scrutiny: unit labour cost comparisons show the US steadily losing competitiveness (chart 5), while nominal wage disparities remain stark versus China and other Asian economies, further complicating any effort to restore trade balance without broader reforms (chart 6). In short, while markets may be drawing temporary comfort from a pause in tariff brinkmanship, the deeper economic and financial vulnerabilities exposed this month remain unresolved—and increasingly central to the global macro narrative.

<iframe style="border-radius:12px" src="https://open.spotify.com/embed/episode/3PzXXKrkHcwtOLipohEdnB?utm_source=generator" width="100%" height="152" frameBorder="0" allowfullscreen="" allow="autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; fullscreen; picture-in-picture" loading="lazy"></iframe>

Charts of the Week: Tariff Truce, Tenuous Trust

250501F20.jpg

250501G20.jpg

U.S. light vehicle sales dropped 2.9% (+6.5% y/y) to 17.31 million units (SAAR) in April after surging 10.8% to 17.82 million units in March. The retreat in April vehicle sales accompanied a 1.7% y/y rise in real disposable income through March, which compared to 2.0% growth last year.

Sales declines were broad-based last month. Light truck sales fell 1.3% (+9.9% y/y) during April to 14.34 million units (SAAR), after rising 12.4% in March. Purchases of domestically-made light trucks declined 1.2% (+11.9% y/y) to 11.02 million units, after jumping 12.5% in March. Sales of imported light trucks fell 1.8% (+4.4% y/y) to 3.32 million units, following an 11.6% March surge.

Trucks’ record 82.8% share of the light vehicle market last month compared to 81.5% in March and 80.3% in April of last year. The share averaged 80.3% during all of 2024 versus 53.3% ten years earlier.

Auto sales also declined last month, down 9.5% (-7.5%) to 2.97 million units (SAAR) following a 3.5% March rise. The decline reversed all of the increase over the prior two months. Purchases of domestically-produced cars fell 9.8% (-4.3% y/y) last month to 2.22 million units, after rising 3.8% in March. Sales of imported autos declined 9.6% (-15.7% y/y) to 0.75 million units, following a 2.5% March increase.

Imports' 23.5% share of the U.S. light vehicle market was little changed from 23.6% in March and compared to a May 2023 low of 22.9% and a high of 26.3% in November of 2023. Imports' share of the passenger car market held steady at 25.3% last month and compared to 27.7% in April of last year. It reached a high of 38.7% in September 2021. Imports' share of the light truck market eased to 23.2% last month after falling to 23.3% in March.

U.S. vehicle sales figures can be found in Haver's **USECON** database. Additional detail by manufacturer is in the I**NDUSTRY** database.

250501H20.jpg

250501I20.jpg

- Light truck sales pull back, while auto sales tumble.
- Both domestic and imported sales decline.
- Imports' market share slips further.

Economy in Brief: April 2010

Jump to:

U.S. Job Market Firms; Jobless Rate Is Steady And Payrolls Rise

U.S. Job Market Firms; JoblessRate Is Steady And Payrolls Rise

German Retail Sales Back-Track In February But Still Show An Uptrend Can It Last?

U.S. Initial Claims For Jobless Insurance Fall To Lowest Since 2008