Global| Apr 01 2010U.S. Initial Claims For Jobless Insurance Fall To Lowest Since 2008
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Labor market improvement is continuing. Last week initial claims for jobless insurance figure fell 6,000 to 439,000 which was the lowest level since August 2008. The earlier week's level was revised up slightly and the latest is down [...]
Labor market improvement is continuing. Last week initial claims for jobless insurance figure fell 6,000 to 439,000 which was the lowest level since August 2008. The earlier week's level was revised up slightly and the latest is down from the recession peak of 651,000 reached in March of 2009. Last week's level roughly matched Consensus expectations for 440,000 new claims while the four-week moving average of initial claims fell to another cycle-low 447,250.
In addition, continuing claims for unemployment insurance during the latest week also fell to a cycle low and are down by one-third since late-June. The overall decline is a function of the improved job market but also reflects the exhaustion of 26 weeks of unemployment benefits. Continuing claims provide an indication of workers' ability to find employment. The four-week average of continuing claims fell to a cycle low of 4.680 mil. This series dates back to 1966.
Extended benefits for unemployment insurance dropped sharply to another cycle low of 136,990. They were down by two-thirds from a peak of 597,688 reached in November.Each state administers a separate unemployment insurance program within guidelines established by Federal law. Benefit amounts and the length of time benefits are received are determined by state law. For example, in Michigan and New York, an additional 73 weeks of benefits are available and in California, an additional 79 weeks are available.
The insured unemployment rate held steady at 3.6% during the prior week. The rate reached a high of 4.9% during May. During the last ten years, there has been a 96% correlation between the level of the insured unemployment rate and the overall rate of unemployment published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending March 12 were in Alaska (7.2% percent), Oregon (6.1), Pennsylvania (6.0), Wisconsin (5.9), Michigan (5.5), Nevada (5.5), North Carolina (5.1) and Connecticut (5.0). The lowest insured unemployment rates were in Virginia (2.0), Texas (2.3), Georgia (3.0), Florida (3.1), Wyoming (3.5), Maryland (3.6), Ohio (3.7), New York (4.0) and Maine (4.3). These data are not seasonally adjusted but the overall insured unemployment rate is.
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| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 3/26/10 | 3/19/10 | 3/12/10 | Y/Y | 2009 | 2008 | 2007 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 439 | 445 | 454 | -32.6% | 572 | 419 | 321 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 4,662 | 4,668 | -19.3% | 5,809 | 3,340 | 2,549 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 3.6 | 3.6 | 4.3 (3/2009) | 4.4 | 2.5 | 1.9 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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