Economy in Brief: October 2019

The BoF survey indicator fell to 96.0 in September from 98.9 in August. With the survey in hand, the Bank of France is looking for Q3 GDP to gain 0.3%, the same as its previous estimate. However, the survey indicator has only a 27th [...]

Wholesale inventories increased 0.2% during August (6.2% y/y), the same as in July. A 0.4% rise had been expected in the Informa Global Markets Survey. Durable goods inventories rose 0.3% (8.3% y/y) in August after holding steady in [...]

The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the total job openings rate slipped to 4.4% during August from an unrevised 4.5% in July. It remained below the 4.8% record reached in January. The job openings rate is the job openings [...]

The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that its Mortgage Loan Index increased 5.2% (68.0% y/y) in the week ending October 4, following an 8.1% rise during the prior week. Applications to refinance a loan gained 9.8% (+162.5% y/y) [...]

These data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy. The price data can be found in Haver's WEEKLY and DAILY databases. More detail on prices, demand, production and inventories, including regional breakdowns, are in OILWKLY. [...]

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported that its Small Business Optimism Index declined 1.3% (-5.7% y/y) to 101.8 during September. It was the third decline in four months and left the index at the lowest level [...]

A monthly rebound, yes, but NO green shoots The August 0.3% rebound in German IP and the stronger rebound of 0.7% in German manufacturing IP are surprises that were not tipped off by German orders or by the German PMI or by other [...]

The Producer Price Index for final demand fell 0.3% during September (+1.4% y/y) following a 0.1% uptick during August. A 0.1% gain had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Producer prices excluding food & energy [...]